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The Northern California Current is a highly productive marine upwelling ecosystem that is economically and ecologically important. It is home to both commercially harvested species and those that are federally listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Recently, there has been a global shift from single-species fisheries management to ecosystem-based fisheries management, which acknowledges that more complex dynamics can reverberate through a food web. Here, we have integrated new research into an end-to-end ecosystem model (i.e., physics to fisheries) using data from long-term ocean surveys, phytoplankton satellite imagery paired with a vertically generalized production model, a recently assembled diet database, fishery catch information, species distribution models, and existing literature. This spatially-explicit model includes 90 living and detrital functional groups ranging from phytoplankton, krill, and forage fish to salmon, seabirds, and marine mammals, and nine fisheries that occur off the coast of Washington, Oregon, and Northern California. This model was updated from previous regional models to account for more recent changes in the Northern California Current (e.g., increases in market squid and some gelatinous zooplankton such as pyrosomes and salps), to expand the previous domain to increase the spatial resolution, to include data from previously unincorporated surveys, and to add improved characterization of endangered species, such as Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and southern resident killer whales ( Orcinus orca ). Our model is mass-balanced, ecologically plausible, without extinctions, and stable over 150-year simulations. Ammonium and nitrate availability, total primary production rates, and model-derived phytoplankton time series are within realistic ranges. As we move towards holistic ecosystem-based fisheries management, we must continue to openly and collaboratively integrate our disparate datasets and collective knowledge to solve the intricate problems we face. As a tool for future research, we provide the data and code to use our ecosystem model.

The trophic habits, size and condition of yearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) caught early in their marine residence were examined during 19 survey years (1981-1985; 1998-2011). Juvenile salmon consumed distinct highly piscivorous diets in cold and warm ocean regimes with major differences between ocean regimes driven by changes in consumption of juvenile rockfishes, followed by several other fish prey, adult euphausiids and decapod larvae. Notable, Chinook salmon consumed 30% more food in the warm versus cold ocean regime in both May and June. Additionally, there were about 30% fewer empty stomachs in the warm ocean regime in May, and 10% fewer in warm June periods. The total prey energy density consumed during the warmer ocean regime was also significantly higher than in cold. Chinook salmon had lower condition factor and were smaller in fork length during the warm ocean regime, and were longer and heavier for their size during the cold ocean regime. The significant increase in foraging during the warm ocean regime occurred concurrently with lower available prey biomass. Adult return rates of juvenile Chinook salmon that entered the ocean during a warm ocean regime were lower. Notably, our long term data set contradicts the long held assertion that juvenile salmon eat less in a warm ocean regime when low growth and survival is observed, and when available prey are reduced. Comparing diet changes between decades under variable ocean conditions may assist us in understanding the effects of projected warming ocean regimes on juvenile Chinook salmon and their survival in the ocean environment. Bioenergetically, the salmon appear to require more food resources during warm ocean regimes.

Most modeling and statistical approaches encourage simplicity, yet ecological processes are often complex, as they are influenced by numerous dynamic environmental and biological factors. Pacific salmon abundance has been highly variable over the last few decades and most forecasting models have proven inadequate, primarily because of a lack of understanding of the processes affecting variability in survival. Better methods and data for predicting the abundance of returning adults are therefore required to effectively manage the species. We combined 31 distinct indicators of the marine environment collected over an 11-year period into a multivariate analysis to summarize and predict adult spring Chinook salmon returns to the Columbia River in 2012. In addition to forecasts, this tool quantifies the strength of the relationship between various ecological indicators and salmon returns, allowing interpretation of ecosystem processes. The relative importance of indicators varied, but a few trends emerged. Adult returns of spring Chinook salmon were best described using indicators of bottom-up ecological processes such as composition and abundance of zooplankton and fish prey as well as measures of individual fish, such as growth and condition. Local indicators of temperature or coastal upwelling did not contribute as much as large-scale indicators of temperature variability, matching the spatial scale over which salmon spend the majority of their ocean residence. Results suggest that effective management of Pacific salmon requires multiple types of data and that no single indicator can represent the complex early-ocean ecology of salmon.

Trait-based frameworks are increasingly used for predicting how ecological communities respond to ongoing global change. As species range shifts result in novel encounters between predators and prey, identifying prey ‘guilds’, based on a suite of shared traits, can distill complex species interactions, and aid in predicting food web dynamics. To support advances in trait-based research in open-ocean systems, we present the Pelagic Species Trait Database, an extensive resource documenting functional traits of 529 pelagic fish and invertebrate species in a single, open-source repository. We synthesized literature sources and online resources, conducted morphometric analysis of species images, as well as laboratory analyses of trawl-captured specimens to collate traits describing 1) habitat use and behavior, 2) morphology, 3) nutritional quality, and 4) population status information. Species in the dataset primarily inhabit the California Current system and broader NE Pacific Ocean, but also includes pelagic species known to be consumed by top ocean predators from other ocean basins. The aim of this dataset is to enhance the use of trait-based approaches in marine ecosystems and for predator populations worldwide.

Interannual variability in salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) production in the northeast Pacific is understood to be driven by oceanographic variability and bottom‐up processes affecting prey availability to juvenile salmon. Scyphozoan jellyfish have an important role in shaping the pathways of energy flow through pelagic food webs. While jellyfish obtain high production rates and biomasses as major consumers of zooplankton production, they have few predators and may divert plankton production away from higher trophic levels. Although jellyfish are planktivorous and juvenile coho (O. kisutch) and Chinook (O. tshawytscha) salmon are mainly piscivorous, they may be indirect competitors for plankton production. Ecosystem model simulations suggested that among all trophic interactions within the Pacific Northwest coastal food web, juvenile salmon are particularly sensitive to jellyfish blooms, and that salmon production will be suppressed in years of high summer jellyfish biomass. Pelagic surveys off Oregon and Washington (1999–2012) were used to examine the interannual relationship between salmon production and the dominant jellyfish species, the sea nettle Chrysaora fuscescens, off the Pacific Northwest coast. There was a significant, negative correlation between sea nettle biomass and the strength of adult coho and Chinook salmon returns to the Columbia River. Examination of spatial distributions across years showed a positive association between sea nettles and salmon. Within individual years, significant differences between the distribution of sea nettles and yearling coho and Chinook salmon generally occurred during cooler ocean summers, perhaps due to the greater expanse of optimal salmon habitat resulting from more upwelling. Whether the association is behavioral or a product of oceanographic processes, association enhances the opportunity for indirect competition. Examination of feeding incidence in September showed that salmon stomachs were less full at locations with higher sea nettle biomass.

The vast spatial extent of the ocean presents a major challenge for monitoring changes in marine biodiversity and connecting those changes to management practices. Remote-sensing offers promise for overcoming this problem in a cost-effective, tractable way, but requires interdisciplinary expertise to identify robust approaches. In this study, we use generalized additive mixed models to evaluate the relationship between an epipelagic fish community in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean and oceanographic predictor variables, quantified in situ as well as via remote-sensing. We demonstrate the utility of using MODIS Rrs555 fields at monthly and interannual timescales to better understand how freshwater input into the Northern California Current region affects higher trophic level biology. These relationships also allow us to identify a gradient in community composition characteristic of warmer, offshore areas and cooler, nearshore areas over the period 2003–2012, and predict community characteristics outside of sampled species data from 2013 to 2015. These spatial maps therefore represent a new, temporally and spatially explicit index of community differences, potentially useful for filling gaps in regional ecosystem status reports and is germane to the broader ecosystem-based fisheries management context.

In the northern California Current, Columbia River Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that return as adults in spring are primarily hatchery-produced, though they include natural-origin fish listed under the US Endangered Species Act. Anomalously warm ocean conditions persisted in the California Current during 2015 (>2.5°C above normal) through the winter period when fish prey resources of juvenile salmon develop and during spring as salmon enter the ocean. The biomass of ichthyoplankton in winter 2015 was the 4th highest of our 18 yr time-series (1998–2015), predicting good food conditions for salmon and high adult salmon returns several years later. The larval composition of 2015 ichthyoplankton included abnormally large amounts of the warm-water taxa northern anchovy Engraulis mordax and rockfish Sebastes spp. When the composition of ichthyoplankton is dominated by warm-water taxa in winter, we would predict poor returns of salmon. May diets of juvenile Chinook salmon collected in coastal waters reflected high proportions of juvenile rockfish, no evidence of northern anchovy, and most closely resembled those of other warm years. June diets also reflected a warm prey community being consumed, predicting poor returns of salmon. Chinook salmon had high percentages of empty stomachs and were small and thin in 2015, with fish weighing 17.6% less than the same-length fish in a cold year (2008). Lower condition of juvenile Chinook salmon related to decreased returns of adult salmon. Overall, all but one biological predictor (biomass of prey) suggests that the prospects for the 2015 ocean-entry smolts were not favorable for survival.

Assessing the ecosystem impact of a species requires information on its foraging ecology across life stages and full distribution. However, such data are often incomplete or entirely lacking for widely distributed species, such as pelagic sharks. We used stomach content and bulk stable isotope analysis in muscle and liver tissue to examine ontogenetic and sex-based variation in the foraging ecology of the salmon shark ( Lamna ditropis ) in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE), where individuals of all life stages overlap seasonally. Both methods showed that salmon sharks consume teleosts and cephalopods, but trophic niche width and dietary composition varied across sexes and age classes. Juvenile females exhibited the widest niche width among females in both tissues, which narrowed progressively as they matured. Conversely, male niche width decreased from the young-of-year to juvenile stages. Tissue-specific analyses revealed further differences. Liver tissue indicated a diet dominated by continental shelf species, reflective of recent nearshore foraging. Muscle tissue, representing long-term dietary trends, showed planktivorous salmonids and continental shelf species as primary prey for immature individuals, while adult females consumed largely deep-water squid and adult males showed a dietary composition of multiple prey groups, likely due to reliance of oceanic prey during seasonal migrations. These findings highlight the dietary diversity of salmon sharks and underscore the variability in foraging strategies and habitat use across age classes and sexes. Management strategies should consider these differences in foraging ecology, as they may render some specific life stages more vulnerable to environmental changes, anthropogenic impacts, and fluctuations in prey availability.

Predation is a major source of mortality in the early life stages of fishes and a driving force in shaping fish populations. Theoretical, modeling, and laboratory studies have generated hypotheses that larval fish size, age, growth rate, and development rate affect their susceptibility to predation. Empirical data on predator selection in the wild are challenging to obtain, and most selective mortality studies must repeatedly sample populations of survivors to indirectly examine survivorship. While valuable on a population scale, these approaches can obscure selection by particular predators. In May 2018, along the coast of Washington, USA, we simultaneously collected juvenile quillback rockfish Sebastes maliger from both the environment and the stomachs of juvenile coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch. We used otolith microstructure analysis to examine whether juvenile coho salmon were age-, size-, and/or growth-selective predators of juvenile quillback rockfish. Our results indicate that juvenile rockfish consumed by salmon were significantly smaller, slower growing at capture, and younger than surviving (unconsumed) juvenile rockfish, providing direct evidence that juvenile coho salmon are selective predators on juvenile quillback rockfish. These differences in early life history traits between consumed and surviving rockfish are related to timing of parturition and the environmental conditions larval rockfish experienced, suggesting that maternal effects may substantially influence survival at this stage. Our results demonstrate that variability in timing of parturition and sea surface temperature leads to tradeoffs in early life history traits between growth in the larval stage and survival when encountering predators in the pelagic juvenile stage.

Abstract Objective The study was designed to assess long‐term variability in the distribution of juvenile Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. and Sablefish Anoplopoma fimbria. The study also evaluated whether Sablefish and Pacific salmon shared food resources and looked to characterize Sablefish during an understudied period of their life cycle. Methods To meet the objectives, the study used data from 26 years of surface trawls conducted in Oregon and Washington coastal waters (1998–2023). Spatial–temporal models were used to measure changes in abundance and distribution of Pacific salmon and Sablefish along with covariates of ocean temperature. The study evaluated trophic characteristics of Pacific salmon and Sablefish from 2020 for differences. The temporal variation in size and diets of Sablefish were also analyzed, along with energy density of fish caught in 2020. Result The spatial–temporal model demonstrated that there has been a nearshore expansion of juvenile Sablefish over the past 26 years that was correlated with increased ocean temperature. The nearshore expansion of Sablefish resulted in increased spatial and trophic overlap with juvenile Pacific salmon. While feeding in nearshore waters, juvenile Sablefish demonstrated competitive feeding advantages over juvenile Pacific salmon during a critical phase of salmonid early marine life history. Juvenile Sablefish exhibited significant ontogenetic diet and energetic shifts, and even the smallest (68–80 mm fork length) were piscivorous. Conclusions If juvenile Sablefish numbers continue to increase relative to Pacific salmon, they could exert more competitive pressure, especially if food resources become limited. Pacific salmon may experience adverse effects from competition, regardless of whether or not juvenile Sablefish, which have recently expanded into nearshore waters, successfully recruit to the adult population. Impact statement Juvenile Sablefish have expanded into nearshore coastal waters in correlation with warmer ocean temperatures. This expansion placed them in direct competition with juvenile Pacific salmon, where Sablefish exhibited higher feeding capabilities and were at times much more numerous.