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Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country levels. We estimated global population-weighted mean concentrations of particle mass with aerodynamic diameter less than 2·5 μm (PM2·5) and ozone at an approximate 11 km × 11 km resolution with satellite-based estimates, chemical transport models, and ground-level measurements. Using integrated exposure–response functions for each cause of death, we estimated the relative risk of mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infections from epidemiological studies using non-linear exposure–response functions spanning the global range of exposure. Ambient PM2·5 was the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. Exposure to PM2·5 caused 4·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 million to 4·8 million) deaths and 103·1 million (90·8 million 115·1 million) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7·6% of total global deaths and 4·2% of global DALYs, 59% of these in east and south Asia. Deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 increased from 3·5 million (95% UI 3·0 million to 4·0 million) in 1990 to 4·2 million (3·7 million to 4·8 million) in 2015. Exposure to ozone caused an additional 254 000 (95% UI 97 000–422 000) deaths and a loss of 4·1 million (1·6 million to 6·8 million) DALYs from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 2015. Ambient air pollution contributed substantially to the global burden of disease in 2015, which increased over the past 25 years, due to population ageing, changes in non-communicable disease rates, and increasing air pollution in low-income and middle-income countries. Modest reductions in burden will occur in the most polluted countries unless PM2·5 values are decreased substantially, but there is potential for substantial health benefits from exposure reduction. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Health Effects Institute.

To investigate trends in out-of-pocket health-care payments and catastrophic health expenditure in India by household age composition. We obtained data from four national consumer expenditure surveys and three health-care utilization surveys conducted between 1993 and 2014. Households were divided into five groups by age composition. We defined catastrophic health expenditure as out-of-pocket payments equalling or exceeding 10% of household expenditure. Factors associated with catastrophic expenditure were identified by multivariable analysis. Overall, the proportion of catastrophic health expenditure increased 1.47-fold between the 1993-1994 expenditure survey (12.4%) and the 2011-2012 expenditure survey (18.2%) and 2.24-fold between the 1995-1996 utilization survey (11.1%) and the 2014 utilization survey (24.9%). The proportion increased more in the poorest than the richest quintile: 3.00-fold versus 1.74-fold, respectively, across the utilization surveys. Catastrophic expenditure was commonest among households comprising only people aged 60 years or older: the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) was 3.26 (95% confidence interval, CI: 2.76-3.84) compared with households with no older people or children younger than 5 years. The risk was also increased among households with both older people and children (aOR: 2.58; 95% CI: 2.31-2.89), with a female head (aOR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.19-1.47) and with a rural location (aOR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.20-1.35). The proportion of households experiencing catastrophic health expenditure in India increased over the past two decades. Such expenditure was highest among households with older people. Financial protection mechanisms are needed for population groups at risk for catastrophic health expenditure.

Financial protection is a key dimension of universal health coverage. Catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) has increased in India over time. The overall figures mask the subnational heterogeneity crucial for designing insurance coverage for 1.3 billion population across India. We estimated CHE in every state of India and the changes over a decade. We used National Sample Survey data on health care utilisation in 2004 and 2014. The states were placed in four groups based on epidemiological transition level (ETL), defined on the basis of ratio of disability-adjusted life-years from communicable diseases to those from non-communicable diseases and injuries combined, with a low ratio denoting high ETL state group. CHE was defined as the proportion of households that had out-of-pocket payments for health care equalling or exceeding 10% of the household expenditure. We assessed variation in the magnitude and distribution of CHE between ETL state groups and between states of India. In 2014, CHE was higher in the high (30.3%, 95% confidence interval: 28.5 to 32.1) and higher-middle (27.4%, 26.3 to 28.6) ETL state groups than the low (21.8%, 20.8 to 22.8) and lower-middle (19.0%, 17.1 to 21.0) groups. From 2004 to 2014, CHE increased only in the high and higher-middle ETL groups (1.19 and 1.34 times, respectively). However, the individual states with substantial increase in CHE were spread across all ETL groups. The gap between the highest CHE of an individual state and the lowest was 8-fold in 2014. CHE was disproportionately concentrated among the rich in 2004 for most of India, but in 2014 CHE was distributed equally among the rich and poor because of the substantial increase in CHE among the poor over time. Better provision of quality health care should be accompanied by financial protection measures to safeguard the poor from increasing CHE in India. The state-specific CHE trends can provide useful input for the planning of the recently launched National Health Protection Mission such that it meets the requirement of each state.

With India preparing for the next decennial Census in 2021, we compared the disability estimates and data collection methodology between the Census 2011 and the most recent population-level survey for India and its states, to highlight the issues to be addressed to improve robustness of the disability estimates in the upcoming Census. Data from the Census 2011 and from two complementary nationally representative household surveys that covered all Indian states with the same methodology and survey instruments-the District-Level Household Survey-4 (DLHS-4, 2012-2013) and the Annual Health Surveys (AHS three rounds, 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13) were used. Data from DLHS-4 and AHS 2012-13 round were pooled to generate estimates for the year 2012-13. Data collection methodology between the sources was compared, including the review of definitions of each type of disability. The overall, mental, visual, hearing, speech, and movement disability rate (DR) per 100,000 population were compared between the sources for India and for each state, and the percent difference in the respective rates was calculated. We explored the reliability of these estimates comparing yearly data from the AHS for three successive rounds. Survey data were collected through proxy reporting, however, it is not entirely clear whether the data were proxy- or self-reported or a mix of both in the Census. The overall DR was 25.1% higher in the Census (2,242; 95% CI 2,241-2,243) than the survey (1,791; 95% CI 1,786-1,797) per 100,000 population, with the state-level difference ranging from -64% in Tamil Nadu to 107% in Sikkim state. Despite both sources using nearly similar definitions for overall disability and disability by type, the difference in DR was 125.5%, 54.2%, -25.7%, -19.7%, and 21.9% for hearing, speech, mental, movement, and visual DR, respectively. At the state-level, the difference in disability-specific estimates ranged from -84% to 450%. The extent of variations in the disability-specific estimates in AHS successive rounds ranged from -25% to 929% at the state-level. There is momentum globally towards building disability measurement that is consistent with the data required for monitoring of the Sustainable Development Goals to ensure robust estimation of disability. The current estimates from the Census and surveys seem much lower than would be expected at the population level. We make recommendations that India needs to take serious note of in order to improve the validity and reliability of India's disability estimates.

To assess the comparability of out-of-pocket (OOP) payment and catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) estimates from different household surveys in India. Data on CHE, outpatient and inpatient OOP payments and other expenditure from all major national or multi-state surveys since 2000 were compared. These included two consumer expenditure surveys (the National Sample Survey for 2004-05 [NSS 2004-05] and 2009-10 [NSS 2009-10]) and three health-focused surveys (the World Health Survey 2003 [WHS 2003]; the National Sample Survey on Morbidity, Health Care and the Condition of the Aged 2004 [NSS 2004]; and the Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health 2007-08 [SAGE 2007-08]). All but the NSS 2004-05 and the NSS 2009-10 used different questionnaires. CHE estimates from WHS 2003 and SAGE 2007-08 were twice as high as those from NSS 2004-05, NSS 2009-10 and NSS 2004. Inpatient OOP payment estimates were twice as high in WHS 2003 and SAGE 2007-08 because in these surveys a much higher proportion of households reported such payments. However, estimates of expenditures on other items were half as high in WHS 2003 as in the other surveys because a very small number of items was used to capture these expenditures. The wide variations observed in CHE and OOP payment estimates resulted from methodological differences. Survey methods used to assess CHE in India need to be standardized and validated to accurately track CHE and assess the impact of recent policies to reduce it.

In 2005, with the goal of reducing the numbers of maternal and neonatal deaths, the Government of India launched Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY), a conditional cash transfer scheme, to incentivise women to give birth in a health facility. We independently assessed the effect of JSY on intervention coverage and health outcomes. We used data from the nationwide district-level household surveys done in 2002–04 and 2007–09 to assess receipt of financial assistance from JSY as a function of socioeconomic and demographic characteristics; and used three analytical approaches (matching, with-versus-without comparison, and differences in differences) to assess the effect of JSY on antenatal care, in-facility births, and perinatal, neonatal, and maternal deaths. Implementation of JSY in 2007–08 was highly variable by state—from less than 5% to 44% of women giving birth receiving cash payments from JSY. The poorest and least educated women did not always have the highest odds of receiving JSY payments. JSY had a significant effect on increasing antenatal care and in-facility births. In the matching analysis, JSY payment was associated with a reduction of 3·7 (95% CI 2·2–5·2) perinatal deaths per 1000 pregnancies and 2·3 (0·9–3·7) neonatal deaths per 1000 livebirths. In the with-versus-without comparison, the reductions were 4·1 (2·5–5·7) perinatal deaths per 1000 pregnancies and 2·4 (0·7–4·1) neonatal deaths per 1000 livebirths. The findings of this assessment are encouraging, but they also emphasise the need for improved targeting of the poorest women and attention to quality of obstetric care in health facilities. Continued independent monitoring and evaluations are important to measure the effect of JSY as financial and political commitment to the programme intensifies. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Animal bites and stings contribute significantly to mortality in certain parts of the world. India accounts for the highest number of snakebites and related mortality globally. We report on mortality due to bite or sting of a venomous animal from a population-based study in the Indian state of Bihar which estimated the causes of death using verbal autopsy. Interviews were conducted for all deaths that occurred from January 2012 to March 2014 in 109,689 households (87.1% participation) covering 627,658 population in 1,017 clusters representative of the state using the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium shortened verbal autopsy questionnaire. Cause of death was assigned using the SmartVA automated algorithm. The annualized mortality rate per 100,000 population due to snakebite, scorpion sting and other animals adjusted for age, sex and urban-rural population distribution of the state; and detailed contextual information on snakebites are reported. Deaths due to bite/sting of a venomous animal accounted for 10.7% of all deaths due to unintentional injuries, with an adjusted mortality rate of 6.2 (95% CI 6.0-6.3) per 100,000 population. The adjusted snakebite mortality rate was 4.4 (95% CI 4.3-4.6) which was significantly higher in the rural areas (4.8, 95% CI 4.7-5.0) and in females (5.5, 95% CI 5.3-5.7). Snakebites accounted for 7.6% of all unintentional injury deaths across all ages but for 33.3% of the deaths in 10-14 years age group. A similar proportion of snakebite deaths occurred while sleeping (30.2%), playing (30.2%) and during field/outdoor activities (27.9%). In these cases, 8.2% people were already dead when found, 34.7% had died before treatment could be provided, and 28 (57.1%) had died post treatment among whom 46.4% had sought treatment at a health facility, 25% with a traditional healer, and the rest from both. Death before reaching a health provider, non-availability of medicines or doctor, referral patterns, and sex-differentials in the context of snakebite deaths are reported. None of the verbatim specifically mentioned anti-venom being used for treatment. The adjusted mortality rate for scorpion sting was 0.9 (95% CI 0.8-0.9). The findings from this large representative sample documents the magnitude of snakebite mortality in Bihar and highlight the circumstances surrounding the snakebite events that could facilitate prevention and intervention opportunities.

India was estimated to have the largest numbers of stillbirths globally in 2015, and the Indian government has adopted a target of <10 stillbirths per 1,000 births by 2030 through the India Newborn Action Plan (INAP). The objective of this study was to use verbal autopsy interviews to examine factors associated with stillbirth in the Indian state of Bihar and make recommendations for the INAP to better inform the setting of priorities and actions to reduce stillbirths. Verbal autopsy interviews were conducted for deaths including stillbirths that occurred from January 2011 to March 2014 in a sample of 109,689 households (87.1% participation) in 1,017 clusters representative of the state of Bihar. The Population Health Metrics Research Consortium shortened verbal autopsy questionnaire was used for each interview, and cause of death was assigned using the SmartVA automated algorithm. A stillbirth was defined as a foetal death with a gestation period of ≥28 weeks wherein the foetus did not show any sign of life. We report on the stillbirth epidemiology and present case studies from the qualitative data on the health provider interface that can be used to improve success of improved, skilled care at birth and delivery interventions. The annualised stillbirth incidence was 21.2 (95% CI 19.7 to 22.6) per 1,000 births, with it being higher in the rural areas. A total of 1,132 stillbirths were identified; 686 (62.2%) were boys, 327 (29.7%) were firstborn, and 760 (68.9%) were delivered at a health facility. Of all the stillbirths, 54.5% were estimated to be antepartum. Only 6,161 (55.9%) of the women reported at least 1 antenatal care visit, and 33% of the women reported not consuming the iron folic acid tablets during pregnancy. Significant differences were seen in delivery-related variables and associated maternal conditions based on the place of delivery and type of stillbirth. Only 6.1% of the women reported having undergone a test to rule out syphilis. For 34.2% of the stillbirths, the possible risk factor for stillbirth was unexplained. For the remaining 65.8% of the women who reported at least 1 complication during the last 3 months of pregnancy, maternal conditions including anaemia, fever during labour, and hypertension accounted for most of the complications. Of importance to note is that the maternal conditions overlapped quite significantly with the other possible underlying risk factors for stillbirth. Obstetrics complications and excessive bleeding during delivery contributed to nearly 30% of the cases as a possible risk factor for stillbirth, highlighting the need for better skilled care during delivery. Of the 5 major themes identified in open narratives, 3 were related to healthcare providers-lack of timely attention, poor skills (knowledge or implementation), and reluctance to deliver a dead baby. The case studies document the circumstances that highlight breakdowns in clinical care around the delivery or missed opportunities that can be used for improving the provision of quality skilled care. The main limitation of these data is that stillbirth is defined based on the gestation period and not based on birth weight; however, this is done in several studies from developing country settings in which birthweight is either not available or accurate. To our knowledge, this study is among the few large, population-based assessments of stillbirths using verbal autopsy at the state level in India. These findings provide detailed insight into investigating the possible risk factors for stillbirths, as well as insight into the ground-level changes that are needed within the health system to design and implement effective preventive and intervention policies to reduce the burden of stillbirths. As most of the stillbirths are preventable with high-quality, evidence-based interventions delivered before and during pregnancy and during labour and childbirth, it is imperative that with INAP in place, India aspires to document stillbirths in a systematic and standardised manner to bridge the knowledge gap for appropriate actions to reduce stillbirths. We have made several recommendations based on our study that could further strengthen the INAP approach to improve the quality and quantity of stillbirth data to avoid this needless loss of lives.

In India, the range and burden of infectious diseases are enormous. The administrative responsibilities of the health system are shared between the central (federal) and state governments. Control of diseases and outbreaks is the responsibility of the central Ministry of Health, which lacks a formal public health department for this purpose. Tuberculosis, malaria, filariasis, visceral leishmaniasis, leprosy, HIV infection, and childhood cluster of vaccine-preventable diseases are given priority for control through centrally managed vertical programmes. Control of HIV infection and leprosy, but not of tuberculosis, seems to be on track. Early success of malaria control was not sustained, and visceral leishmaniasis prevalence has increased. Inadequate containment of the vector has resulted in recurrent outbreaks of dengue fever and re-emergence of Chikungunya virus disease and typhus fever. Other infectious diseases caused by faecally transmitted pathogens (enteric fevers, cholera, hepatitis A and E viruses) and zoonoses (rabies, leptospirosis, anthrax) are not in the process of being systematically controlled. Big gaps in the surveillance and response system for infectious diseases need to be addressed. Replication of the model of vertical single-disease control for all infectious diseases will not be efficient or viable. India needs to rethink and revise its health policy to broaden the agenda of disease control. A comprehensive review and redesign of the health system is needed urgently to ensure equity and quality in health care. We recommend the creation of a functional public health infrastructure that is shared between central and state governments, with professional leadership and a formally trained public health cadre of personnel who manage an integrated control mechanism of diseases in districts that includes infectious and non-infectious diseases, and injuries.