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Human seasonal influenza viruses evolve rapidly, enabling the virus population to evade immunity and reinfect previously infected individuals. Antigenic properties are largely determined by the surface glycoprotein hemagglutinin (HA), and amino acid substitutions at exposed epitope sites in HA mediate loss of recognition by antibodies. Here, we show that antigenic differences measured through serological assay data are well described by a sum of antigenic changes along the path connecting viruses in a phylogenetic tree. This mapping onto the tree allows prediction of antigenicity from HA sequence data alone. The mapping can further be used to make predictions about the makeup of the future A(H3N2) seasonal influenza virus population, and we compare predictions between models with serological and sequence data. To make timely model output readily available, we developed a web browser-based application that visualizes antigenic data on a continuously updated phylogeny.

There is need for effective and affordable vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 to tackle the ongoing pandemic. In this study, we describe a protein nanoparticle vaccine against SARS-CoV-2. The vaccine is based on the display of coronavirus spike glycoprotein receptor-binding domain (RBD) on a synthetic virus-like particle (VLP) platform, SpyCatcher003-mi3, using SpyTag/SpyCatcher technology. Low doses of RBD-SpyVLP in a prime-boost regimen induce a strong neutralising antibody response in mice and pigs that is superior to convalescent human sera. We evaluate antibody quality using ACE2 blocking and neutralisation of cell infection by pseudovirus or wild-type SARS-CoV-2. Using competition assays with a monoclonal antibody panel, we show that RBD-SpyVLP induces a polyclonal antibody response that recognises key epitopes on the RBD, reducing the likelihood of selecting neutralisation-escape mutants. Moreover, RBD-SpyVLP is thermostable and can be lyophilised without losing immunogenicity, to facilitate global distribution and reduce cold-chain dependence. The data suggests that RBD-SpyVLP provides strong potential to address clinical and logistic challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccines for SARS-COV-2 are needed in the ongoing pandemic. Here the authors characterize a vaccine candidate that presents the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein on a synthetic VLP platform using SpyTag/SpyCatcher technology and show immunogenicity of a prime-boost regimen in mice and pigs.

An examination of the receptor-binding properties of the H7N9 virus, which has recently emerged in China, shows that the virus has acquired the ability to bind the human α-2,6-linked sialic acid receptor while retaining binding to the avian α-2,3-linked receptor, and therefore does not have the preference for human versus avian receptors characteristic of pandemic viruses. H7N9 avian flu virus isolates examined The H7N9 avian flu virus emerged in the human population on mainland China in February 2013, and by the first week of July WHO had recorded 133 cases including 43 deaths. Most cases so far have been linked to live bird markets. In this issue of Nature two groups report on the receptor-binding properties of H7N9. Both find that the virus has acquired the ability to bind the human α-2,3-linked sialic acid receptor yet has a retained preference for binding to the avian 2,3-linked receptor, a factor that may restrict its further evolution towards efficient transmission between humans. Steven Gamblin and colleagues also solve the crystal structure of the H7 haemagglutinin in complex with the receptor analogues, revealing details of how the human-receptor-binding properties may have arisen. Yuelong Shu and colleagues examine the pattern of virus infection in lung tissue. In human tracheal and lung explants, the virus infects epithelial cells in the lower respiratory tract and type II pneumocytes in the alveoli, and is better able to replicate in the lower respiratory tract compared with the trachea, a possible factor in the inefficient human-to-human transmission seen to date. They also report hypercytokinaemia in some patients — a cytokine storm that can contribute to disease severity — comparable to that seen in some H5N1 infections. Of the 132 people known to have been infected with H7N9 influenza viruses in China, 37 died, and many were severely ill 1 . Infection seems to have involved contact with infected poultry 2 , 3 . We have examined the receptor-binding properties of this H7N9 virus and compared them with those of an avian H7N3 virus. We find that the human H7 virus has significantly higher affinity for α-2,6-linked sialic acid analogues (‘human receptor’) than avian H7 while retaining the strong binding to α-2,3-linked sialic acid analogues (‘avian receptor’) characteristic of avian viruses. The human H7 virus does not, therefore, have the preference for human versus avian receptors characteristic of pandemic viruses. X-ray crystallography of the receptor-binding protein, haemagglutinin (HA), in complex with receptor analogues indicates that both human and avian receptors adopt different conformations when bound to human H7 HA than they do when bound to avian H7 HA. Human receptor bound to human H7 HA exits the binding site in a different direction to that seen in complexes formed by HAs from pandemic viruses 4 , 5 and from an aerosol-transmissible H5 mutant 6 . The human-receptor-binding properties of human H7 probably arise from the introduction of two bulky hydrophobic residues by the substitutions Gln226Leu and Gly186Val. The former is shared with the 1957 H2 and 1968 H3 pandemic viruses and with the aerosol-transmissible H5 mutant. We conclude that the human H7 virus has acquired some of the receptor-binding characteristics that are typical of pandemic viruses, but its retained preference for avian receptor may restrict its further evolution towards a virus that could transmit efficiently between humans, perhaps by binding to avian-receptor-rich mucins in the human respiratory tract 7 rather than to cellular receptors.

The global-scale epidemiology and genome-wide evolutionary dynamics of influenza B remain poorly understood compared with influenza A viruses. We compiled a spatio-temporally comprehensive dataset of influenza B viruses, comprising over 2,500 genomes sampled worldwide between 1987 and 2015, including 382 newly-sequenced genomes that fill substantial gaps in previous molecular surveillance studies. Our contributed data increase the number of available influenza B virus genomes in Europe, Africa and Central Asia, improving the global context to study influenza B viruses. We reveal Yamagata-lineage diversity results from co-circulation of two antigenically-distinct groups that also segregate genetically across the entire genome, without evidence of intra-lineage reassortment. In contrast, Victoria-lineage diversity stems from geographic segregation of different genetic clades, with variability in the degree of geographic spread among clades. Differences between the lineages are reflected in their antigenic dynamics, as Yamagata-lineage viruses show alternating dominance between antigenic groups, while Victoria-lineage viruses show antigenic drift of a single lineage. Structural mapping of amino acid substitutions on trunk branches of influenza B gene phylogenies further supports these antigenic differences and highlights two potential mechanisms of adaptation for polymerase activity. Our study provides new insights into the epidemiological and molecular processes shaping influenza B virus evolution globally.

The hemagglutinin (HA) of influenza A(H3N2) virus responsible for the 1968 influenza pandemic derived from an avian virus. On introduction into humans, its receptor binding properties had changed from a preference for avian receptors (α2,3-linked sialic acid) to a preference for human receptors (α2,6-linked sialic acid). By 2001, the avidity of human H3 viruses for avian receptors had declined, and since then the affinity for human receptors has also decreased significantly. These changes in receptor binding, which correlate with increased difficulties in virus propagation in vitro and in antigenic analysis, have been assessed by virus hemagglutination of erythrocytes from different species and quantified by measuring virus binding to receptor analogs using surface biolayer interferometry. Crystal structures of HA–receptor analog complexes formed with HAs from viruses isolated in 2004 and 2005 reveal significant differences in the conformation of the 220-loop of HA1, relative to the 1968 structure, resulting in altered interactions between the HA and the receptor analog that explain the changes in receptor affinity. Site-specific mutagenesis shows the HA1 Asp-225→Asn substitution to be the key determinant of the decreased receptor binding in viruses circulating since 2005. Our results indicate that the evolution of human influenza A(H3N2) viruses since 1968 has produced a virus with a low propensity to bind human receptor analogs, and this loss of avidity correlates with the marked reduction in A(H3N2) virus disease impact in the last 10 y.

Serological and plasmablast responses and plasmablast-derived IgG monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) have been analysed in three COVID-19 patients with different clinical severities. Potent humoral responses were detected within 3 weeks of onset of illness in all patients and the serological titre was elicited soon after or concomitantly with peripheral plasmablast response. An average of 13.7% and 3.5% of plasmablast-derived MAbs were reactive with virus spike glycoprotein or nucleocapsid, respectively. A subset of anti-spike (10 of 32) antibodies cross-reacted with other betacoronaviruses tested and harboured extensive somatic mutations, indicative of an expansion of memory B cells upon SARS-CoV-2 infection. Fourteen of 32 anti-spike MAbs, including five anti-receptor-binding domain (RBD), three anti-non-RBD S1 and six anti-S2, neutralised wild-type SARS-CoV-2 in independent assays. Anti-RBD MAbs were further grouped into four cross-inhibiting clusters, of which six antibodies from three separate clusters blocked the binding of RBD to ACE2 and five were neutralising. All ACE2-blocking anti-RBD antibodies were isolated from two recovered patients with prolonged fever, which is compatible with substantial ACE2-blocking response in their sera. Finally, the identification of non-competing pairs of neutralising antibodies would offer potential templates for the development of prophylactic and therapeutic agents against SARS-CoV-2.

Background Monitoring antigenic drift in human influenza A viruses is essential for vaccine strain selection and ensuring protection against circulating strains. Antigenic drift is traditionally assessed using ferret antisera, which provide monospecific responses and human vaccinee sera, which reflect exposure to multiple antigens. In this study, we evaluated the pig as an alternative source of antisera to study antigenic drift compared with immune responses in ferrets and humans. We included seasonal influenza A(H1N1pdm09) human viruses that had shown different antigenic characteristics when using ferret or human antisera. Methods Pairs of pigs were inoculated with six human A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses circulating between 2019 and 2023, a period of marked antigenic drift. Pig and ferret antisera raised against these six reference viruses were analysed by haemagglutination inhibition (HI) and virus neutralisation (VN), and homologous and heterologous titre differences were used to assess antigenic reactivity profiles among the viruses between species. Results Pigs were successfully infected with all strains, shedding virus and producing antibody responses, confirming their susceptibility to human influenza A viruses. Antigenic reactivity of pig antisera was qualitatively comparable to ferret antisera in both HI and VN assays, although maximum homologous antibody titres were significantly higher in ferrets (on average 16‐fold for HI and from around 12‐ to 210‐fold for VN). The antisera raised against viruses in circulation in 2019 and before, exemplified by A/Guangdong‐Maonan/SWL1536/2019, clade 5a.1, were clearly differentiated by both ferret and pig antisera from those in clade 5a.2 and its derivatives that became predominant. Conclusions Ferrets and pigs showed comparable responses and both distinguished clade 5a.1 from clade 5a.2. However, neither model recognised antigenically drifted variants from 2019 to 2022, including subclades 5a.2‐C, 5a.2a‐C.1/C.1.9 and 5a.2a.1‐C.1.1/D, which were distinguishable using human postvaccination antisera.

Surface antigens of pathogens are commonly targeted by vaccine-elicited antibodies but antigenic variability, notably in RNA viruses such as influenza, HIV and SARS-CoV-2, pose challenges for control by vaccination. For example, influenza A(H3N2) entered the human population in 1968 causing a pandemic and has since been monitored, along with other seasonal influenza viruses, for the emergence of antigenic drift variants through intensive global surveillance and laboratory characterisation. Statistical models of the relationship between genetic differences among viruses and their antigenic similarity provide useful information to inform vaccine development, though accurate identification of causative mutations is complicated by highly correlated genetic signals that arise due to the evolutionary process. Here, using a sparse hierarchical Bayesian analogue of an experimentally validated model for integrating genetic and antigenic data, we identify the genetic changes in influenza A(H3N2) virus that underpin antigenic drift. We show that incorporating protein structural data into variable selection helps resolve ambiguities arising due to correlated signals, with the proportion of variables representing haemagglutinin positions decisively included, or excluded, increased from 59.8% to 72.4%. The accuracy of variable selection judged by proximity to experimentally determined antigenic sites was improved simultaneously. Structure-guided variable selection thus improves confidence in the identification of genetic explanations of antigenic variation and we also show that prioritising the identification of causative mutations is not detrimental to the predictive capability of the analysis. Indeed, incorporating structural information into variable selection resulted in a model that could more accurately predict antigenic assay titres for phenotypically-uncharacterised virus from genetic sequence. Combined, these analyses have the potential to inform choices of reference viruses, the targeting of laboratory assays, and predictions of the evolutionary success of different genotypes, and can therefore be used to inform vaccine selection processes.

Determining phenotype from genetic data is a fundamental challenge. Identification of emerging antigenic variants among circulating influenza viruses is critical to the vaccine virus selection process, with vaccine effectiveness maximized when constituents are antigenically similar to circulating viruses. Hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay data are commonly used to assess influenza antigenicity. Here, sequence and 3-D structural information of hemagglutinin (HA) glycoproteins were analyzed together with corresponding HI assay data for former seasonal influenza A(H1N1) virus isolates (1997-2009) and reference viruses. The models developed identify and quantify the impact of eighteen amino acid substitutions on the antigenicity of HA, two of which were responsible for major transitions in antigenic phenotype. We used reverse genetics to demonstrate the causal effect on antigenicity for a subset of these substitutions. Information on the impact of substitutions allowed us to predict antigenic phenotypes of emerging viruses directly from HA gene sequence data and accuracy was doubled by including all substitutions causing antigenic changes over a model incorporating only the substitutions with the largest impact. The ability to quantify the phenotypic impact of specific amino acid substitutions should help refine emerging techniques that predict the evolution of virus populations from one year to the next, leading to stronger theoretical foundations for selection of candidate vaccine viruses. These techniques have great potential to be extended to other antigenically variable pathogens.

Pigs are natural hosts for the same subtypes of influenza A viruses as humans and integrally involved in virus evolution with frequent interspecies transmissions in both directions. The emergence of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus illustrates the importance of pigs in evolution of zoonotic strains. Here we generated pig influenza-specific monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) from H1N1pdm09 infected pigs. The mAbs recognized the same two major immunodominant haemagglutinin (HA) epitopes targeted by humans, one of which is not recognized by post-infection ferret antisera that are commonly used to monitor virus evolution. Neutralizing activity of the pig mAbs was comparable to that of potent human anti-HA mAbs. Further, prophylactic administration of a selected porcine mAb to pigs abolished lung viral load and greatly reduced lung pathology but did not eliminate nasal shedding of virus after H1N1pdm09 challenge. Hence mAbs from pigs, which target HA can significantly reduce disease severity. These results, together with the comparable sizes of pigs and humans, indicate that the pig is a valuable model for understanding how best to apply mAbs as therapy in humans and for monitoring antigenic drift of influenza viruses in humans, thereby providing information highly relevant to making influenza vaccine recommendations.