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4 result(s) for "Danyluk, Gregory"
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Applying infectious disease forecasting to public health: a path forward using influenza forecasting examples
Background Infectious disease forecasting aims to predict characteristics of both seasonal epidemics and future pandemics. Accurate and timely infectious disease forecasts could aid public health responses by informing key preparation and mitigation efforts. Main body For forecasts to be fully integrated into public health decision-making, federal, state, and local officials must understand how forecasts were made, how to interpret forecasts, and how well the forecasts have performed in the past. Since the 2013–14 influenza season, the Influenza Division at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted collaborative challenges to forecast the timing, intensity, and short-term trajectory of influenza-like illness in the United States. Additional efforts to advance forecasting science have included influenza initiatives focused on state-level and hospitalization forecasts, as well as other infectious diseases. Using CDC influenza forecasting challenges as an example, this paper provides an overview of infectious disease forecasting; applications of forecasting to public health; and current work to develop best practices for forecast methodology, applications, and communication. Conclusions These efforts, along with other infectious disease forecasting initiatives, can foster the continued advancement of forecasting science.
Male-to-Female Sexual Transmission of Zika Virus—United States, January–April 2016
We report on 9 cases of male-to-female sexual transmission of Zika virus in the United States occurring January–April 2016. This report summarizes new information about both timing of exposure and symptoms of sexually transmitted Zika virus disease, and results of semen testing for Zika virus from 2 male travelers.
Notes from the Field: SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Associated with High School Football Team Members — Florida, September–October 2020
Thirty-one of 50 players and one of four coaches did not have test results available for review. Because the investigation was deemed a public health response, approval by the FDOH Institutional Review Board was not required. The 14-day incidence was 163 cases per 100,000 persons within the school zone population,§§ compared with 199 within the county (1). Because of potential contact between team members with COVID-19 and classmates, 267 students at the football team’s school were quarantined, resulting in approximately 2,243 person-days of lost in-person learning.¶¶ Factors that likely contributed to team transmission included 1) infrequent mask use in the weight room or during practice; 2) inadequate physical distancing and air ventilation on buses transporting players (windows remainedd); 3) infrequent cleaning and disinfection of locker rooms, weight room equipment, and communal areas (e.g., hallways and bathrooms) before and after practices; and 4) insufficient sanitizing of shared hydration system drinking nozzles between uses. [...]some asymptomatic persons with COVID-19 might not have been identified; therefore, the extent of SARS-CoV-2 transmission might have been underestimated.