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The seismotectonic characteristics of 1983–1984, 1993 and 2005 swarms in Andaman Sea are analysed. These swarms are characterised by their typical pulsating nature, oval shaped geometry and higher b values. The migration path of the swarms from north to south along the Andaman Spreading Ridge is documented. While the first two swarms are located along existing mapped rift segments, the 2005 swarm appears to have generated a new rift basin along 8°N. The analysis and supporting evidences suggest that these swarms were generated by intruding magmatic dyke along the weak zones in the crust, followed by rifting, spreading and collapse of rift walls. CMT solutions for 2005 swarm activity indicate that intrusion of magmatic dyke in the crustal weak zone is documented by earthquakes showing strike slip solution. Subsequent events with normal fault mechanism corroborate the rift formation, collapse and its spreading.

The Himalayan fold-thrust belt has been visited by many disastrous earthquakes (magnitude > 6) time and again. This active collisional orogen bordering Indian subcontinent in the north remains a potential seismic threat of similar magnitude in the adjoining countries like India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan and China. Though earthquake forecasting is riddled with all conjectures and still not a proven presumption, identifying likely source zones of such disastrous earthquakes would be an important contribution to seismic hazard assessment. In this study, we have worked out spatio-temporal clustering of earthquakes (Mb ≥ 4.5; 1964–2006) in the Himalayas. ‘Point density’ spatial statistics has helped in detecting 22 spatial seismicity clusters. Earthquake catalog is then treated with a moving time-distance window technique (inter-event time 35 days and distance 100 ± 20 km) to bring out temporal clusters by recognizing several foreshock-main shock-aftershock (FMA) sequences. A total of 53 such temporal sequences identified in the process are confined within the 22 spatial clusters. Though each of these spatio-temporal clusters deserves in-depth analysis, we short-listed only eight such clusters that are dissected by active tectonic discontinuities like MBT/MCT for detail study. Spatio-temporal clusters have been used to constrain the potential source zones. These eight well-defined spatio-temporal clusters demonstrate recurrent moderate to large earthquakes. We assumed that the length of these clusters are indicating the possible maximum rupture lengths and thus empirically estimated the maximum possible magnitudes of eight clusters that can be generated from them (from west to east) as 8.0, 8.3, 8.2, 8.3, 8.2, 8.4, 8.0 and 7.7. Based on comparative study of the eight cluster zones contemplating with their temporal recurrences, historical seismic records, presence of intersecting faults and estimated magnitudes, we have guessed the possibility that Kangra, East Nepal, Garhwal and Kumaun–West Nepal clusters, in decreasing order of earthquake threat, are potential source zones for large earthquakes (≥7.7 M) in future.

Microlithic industries, a technology associated with modern humans, as defined by the production of microblades have been found in different parts of the Indian subcontinent with the earliest date being 48 ka. The present communication reports on recent archaeological excavations of these industries from a colluvial context located in the pediment surface of Precambrian hills in Purulia, West Bengal. These are dated to 34–25 ka by optically stimulated luminescence dating and are the earliest dates for microlithic industries in eastern India. To our knowledge such dating does not exist for any prehistoric site in Bengal. The context of the sites – hill-slope colluvium – is also unique and a rarity in the subcontinent. These findings add additional inputs to the knowledge of these industries, providing supporting evidence to their antiquity.

Two contemporary earthquakes originating in the central Himalayan arc and its foredeep (Sikkim earthquake of 18.09.2011, Mw 6.9, h: 10-60 (?) km and Bihar-Nepal earthquake of 20.08.1988, Mw 6.8, h: 57 km) are commonly associated with transverse lineaments/faults traversing the region. Such lineaments/faults form active seismic blocks defining promontories for the advancing Indian Craton. These actually produce conjugate shear faulting pattern suggestive of pervasive crustal interplay deep inside the mountains. Focal mechanism solutions allow inferring that large part of the current convergence across the central Himalayan arc is accommodated by lateral slip. Similar slip also continues unabated in the densely populated foredeep for distances up to several tens of kilometers south of the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT). Copyright 2013 Geological Society of India

Seismic-potential for the Andaman Arc System (AAS) is evaluated using a three-tier approach: (i) the seismic b-values derived using a revised and homogenized earthquake catalog for Mw ≥4.7, with uniform Mw, for the period 1964-2013 created from ISC Data, (ii) Free-air gravity-anomalies for AAS and their geologic interpretation and (iii) deep crustal structure from seismic reflection surveys and 3D seismic tomography results. Both long-term spatial b-value anomalies for the period 1964-2013 and temporal b-value anomalies for a shorter period (2002-2013) have been estimated. The b-value maps are interpreted in terms of the stress regime acting across AAS and stressed asperities inferred along the strike of AAS. Eight distinguishable seismic-zones are identified and their seismic potential is examined by temporal b-value anomalies in producing moderate to large earthquakes. The latter demonstrates 'low-high' or 'high-low' couplet over years, and that a variation in b-value more than 20% compared to the previous year value is likely to produce an earthquake event with Mw ≥6.0. Some support to this interpretation comes from the regional Free-air gravity-anomalies and deep crustal structure interpreted from hypocentral distribution of earthquakes. The high b-values are seemingly associated with magma chambers or low velocity crust; creating asperity zones due to multiple batholithic intrusions at plate boundary. This geologic interpretation is evidenced by 3D P-wave seismic tomography and velocity heterogeneity study for AAS reported by us elsewhere.

Following the December 2004 and March 2005 major shallow foci inter-plate earthquakes in the north Sumatra region, a slab-tear fault located within the subducting Indian plate ruptured across the West Sunda Trench (WST) within the marginal intra-plate region. Trend, length and movement pattern of this New Tear Fault (NTF) segment is almost identical to another such slab-tear fault mapped previously by Hamilton (1979), located around 160 km south of NTF. Seismic activity along the NTF remained quasi-stable till the end of the year 2011, when an earthquake of magnitude 7.2 occurred on 10.01.2012 just at the tip of NTF, only around ∼100 km within the intra-plate domain west of WST. The NTF rupture propagated further towards SSW with the generation of two more large earthquakes on 11.04.2012. The foreshock (10.01.12; M7.2) - mainshock (11.04.12; M 8.6) - aftershock (11.04.12; M 8.2) sequence along with numerous smaller magnitude aftershocks unmistakably define the extension of NTF, a slab-tear fault that results tectonic segmentation of the convergent plate margin. Within the intra-plate domain most earthquakes display consistent left-lateral strike slip mechanism along NNE trending fault plane. Copyright 2014 Geological Society of India

The Burmese Arc seismic activity is not uniform for its ∼1100 km length; only the Northern Burmese Arc (NBA) is intensely active. Six large earthquakes in the magnitude range 6.1-7.4 have originated from the NBA Benioff zone between 1954-2011, within an area of 200×300 km2 where the Indian plate subducts eastward to depths beyond 200 km below the Burma plate. An analysis on seismogenesis of this interplate region suggests that while the subducting lithosphere is characterized by profuse seismicity, seismicity in the overriding plate is rather few. Large earthquakes occurring in the overriding plate are associated with the backarc Shan-Sagaing Fault (SSF) further east. The forecasting performance of the Benioff zone earthquakes in NBA as forerunner is analysed here by: (i) spatial earthquake clustering, (ii) seismic cycles and their temporal quiescence and (iii) the characteristic temporal b-value changes. Three such clusters (C1-C3) are identified from NBA Benioff Zones I & II that are capable of generating earthquakes in the magnitude ranges of 7.38 to 7.93. Seismic cycles evidenced for the Zone I displayed distinct quiescence (Q1, Q2 and Q3) prior to the 6th August 1988 (M 6.6) earthquake. Similar cycles were used to forecast an earthquake (Dasgupta et al. 2010) to come from the Zone I (cluster C1); which, actually struck on 4 February 2011 (M 6.3). The preparatory activity for an event has already been set in the Zone II and we speculate its occurrence as a large event (M>6.0) possibly within the year 2012, somewhere close to cluster C3. Temporal analysis of b-value indicates a rise before an ensuing large earthquake. Copyright 2012 Geological Society of India

The role of fluid injection on the occurrence and migration path for the aftershocks of 2004 Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.3) and January 2005 Andaman earthquake swarm within the aftershock sequence is investigated here from the viewpoint of pore fluid diffusion process. The Sumatra earthquake created a regionally extensive crustal rupture plane exceeding 1,200 km length below the Andaman Sea. The r – t plots (Shapiro et al. 1997 ) are constructed for these aftershocks in order to examine the role of poroelastic effects as rupturing progressed with time. Their main results are as follows: the r – t plot corresponding to first 3 h of aftershock activity (when only 44 events of mb ≥ 4.5 originated) reveals that 95% of the data points occurred below the modelled parabola with relatively high D value of 20 m 2 /s, whereas a significantly low D value of 3.5 m 2 /s characterises the aftershock activity for the first 24 h (when 420 events of mb ≥ 4.0 occurred). Here, the Coulomb stress was transferred from the main shock with a rapid imposition of normal stress, thus inducing the pore-pressure change that started diminishing almost immediately by fluid diffusion, at a rate, defined by the diminishing D value. The modelling results for fault seismicity at far off distances from the main epicentre are interpreted here as potential indicators for large-scale sub-seabed rupturing—consequent to stress changes induced by bending of the Indian Ocean plate. Bathymetric slopes under the Andaman subduction zone are particularly amenable to sub-marine slides where crustal E–W hinge faults inferred seismically cut across the N–S trending regional thrust and strike-slip faults. Seabed rupturing appears to allow deep-slab hydration in these areas, producing pressure gradients along the normal faults. These features are important since they can herald marine geohazards in the Andaman region.

We analyse the seismicity pattern including b-value in the north Sumatra-Great Nicobar region from 1976 to 2004. The analysis suggests that there were a number of significant, intermediate and short-term precursors before the magnitude 7.6 earthquake of 2 November 2002. However, they were not found to be so prominent prior to the magnitude 9.0 earthquake of 26 December 2004 though downward migration of activity and a 50-day short-term quiescence was observed before the event. The various precursors identified include post-seismic and intermediate-term quiescence of 13 and 10 years respectively, between the 1976 (magnitude 6.3) and 2002 earthquakes with two years (1990-1991) of increase in background seismicity; renewed seismicity, downward migration of seismic activity and foreshocks in 2002, just before the mainshock. Spatial variation in b-value with time indicates precursory changes in the form of high b-value zone near the epicenter preceding the mainshocks of 2004 and 2002 and temporal rise in b-value in the epicentral area before the 2002 earthquake.[PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]