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Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices allow real-time glucose readings leading to improved glycemic control. However, glucose predictions in the lower (hypoglycemia) and higher (hyperglycemia) extremes, referred as glycemic excursions, remain challenging due to their rarity. Moreover, limited access to sensitive patient data hampers the development of robust machine learning models even with advanced deep learning algorithms available. We propose to simultaneously provide accurate glucose predictions in the excursion regions while addressing data privacy concerns. To tackle excursion prediction, we propose a novel Hypo-Hyper (HH) loss function that penalizes errors based on the underlying glycemic range with a higher penalty at the extremes over the normal glucose range. On the other hand, to address privacy concerns, we propose FedGlu, a machine learning model trained in a federated learning (FL) framework. FL allows collaborative learning without sharing sensitive data by training models locally and sharing only model parameters across other patients. The HH loss combined within FedGlu addresses both the challenges at the same time. The HH loss function demonstrates a 46% improvement over mean-squared error (MSE) loss across 125 patients. Compared to local models, FedGlu improved glycemic excursion detection by 35% compared to local models. This improvement translates to enhanced performance in predicting both, hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia, for 105 out of 125 patients. These results underscore the effectiveness of the proposed HH loss function in augmenting the predictive capabilities of glucose predictions. Moreover, implementing models within a federated learning framework not only ensures better predictive capabilities but also safeguards sensitive data concurrently.

Mosquitoes transmit several infectious diseases that pose significant threat to human health. Temperature along with other environmental factors at breeding and resting locations play a role in the organismal development and abundance of mosquitoes. Accurate analysis of mosquito population dynamics requires information on microclimatic conditions at breeding and resting locations. In this study, we develop a regression model to characterize microclimatic temperature based on ambient environmental conditions. Data were collected by placing sensor loggers at resting and breeding locations such as storm drains across Houston, TX. Corresponding weather data was obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website. Features extracted from these data sources along with contextual information on location were used to develop a Generalized Linear Model for predicting microclimate temperatures. We also analyzed mosquito population dynamics for Aedes albopictus under ambient and microclimatic conditions using system dynamic (SD) modelling to demonstrate the need for accurate microclimatic temperatures in population models. The microclimate prediction model had an R 2 value of ~ 95% and average prediction error of ~ 1.5 °C indicating that microclimate temperatures can be reliably estimated from the ambient environmental conditions. SD model analysis indicates that some microclimates in Texas could result in larger populations of juvenile and adult Aedes albopictus mosquitoes surviving the winter without requiring dormancy.

Predictive alerts for impending hypoglycemic events enable persons with type 1 diabetes to take preventive actions and avoid serious consequences. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for hypoglycemic events with a low false alert rate, high sensitivity and specificity, and good generalizability to new patients and time periods. Performance improvement by focusing on sustained hypoglycemic events, defined as glucose values less than 70 mg/dL for at least 15 minutes, was explored. Two different modeling approaches were considered: (1) a classification-based method to directly predict sustained hypoglycemic events, and (2) a regression-based prediction of glucose at multiple time points in the prediction horizon and subsequent inference of sustained hypoglycemia. To address the generalizability and robustness of the model, two different validation mechanisms were considered: (1) patient-based validation (model performance was evaluated on new patients), and (2) time-based validation (model performance was evaluated on new time periods). This study utilized data from 110 patients over 30-90 days comprising 1.6 million continuous glucose monitoring values under normal living conditions. The model accurately predicted sustained events with >97% sensitivity and specificity for both 30- and 60-minute prediction horizons. The false alert rate was kept to <25%. The results were consistent across patient- and time-based validation strategies. Providing alerts focused on sustained events instead of all hypoglycemic events reduces the false alert rate and improves sensitivity and specificity. It also results in models that have better generalizability to new patients and time periods.

Diabetes is a major health challenge that affects millions of people worldwide. Managing diabetes effectively requires monitoring blood glucose levels continuously, typically through invasive sensing devices such as continuous glucose monitors (CGMs). Blood glucose excursions have been shown to induce changes in several physiological signals such as electrocardiography (ECG), photoplethysmography (PPG) and electrodermal activity (EDA) that can be measured non-invasively with consumer-grade wearable sensors. These physiological changes can be mapped into glucose levels using machine-learning models trained on comprehensive multimodal datasets of physiological signals. However, most existing datasets lack ground-truth measurements from CGMs and often only include aggregated physiological data (e.g. heart rate) at low sampling rates. To address these gaps, we introduce PhysioCGM, an open-source dataset that contains raw physiological recordings from multiple sensors including ECG, PPG, EDA, skin temperature, accelerometry and ground-truth CGM data collected for up to 17 days from 10 participants with Type 1 Diabetes in ambulatory settings. This dataset aims to promote the development of non-invasive methods for glucose monitoring and improve diabetes management.

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices provide real-time glucose monitoring and timely alerts for glycemic excursions, improving glycemic control among patients with diabetes. However, identifying rare events like hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia remain challenging due to their infrequency. Moreover, limited access to sensitive patient data hampers the development of robust machine learning models. Our objective is to accurately predict glycemic excursions while addressing data privacy concerns. To tackle excursion prediction, we propose a novel Hypo-Hyper (HH) loss function, which significantly improves performance in the glycemic excursion regions. The HH loss function demonstrates a 46% improvement over mean-squared error (MSE) loss across 125 patients. To address privacy concerns, we propose FedGlu, a machine learning model trained in a federated learning (FL) framework. FL allows collaborative learning without sharing sensitive data by training models locally and sharing only model parameters across other patients. FedGlu achieves a 35% superior glycemic excursion detection rate compared to local models. This improvement translates to enhanced performance in predicting both, hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia, for 105 out of 125 patients. These results underscore the effectiveness of the proposed HH loss function in augmenting the predictive capabilities of glucose predictions. Moreover, implementing models within a federated learning framework not only ensures better predictive capabilities but also safeguards sensitive data concurrently.