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"Davis, Alex"
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Communicating scientific uncertainty
All science has uncertainty. Unless that uncertainty is communicated effectively, decision makers may put too much or too little faith in it. The information that needs to be communicated depends on the decisions that people face. Are they (i) looking for a signal (e.g., whether to evacuate before a hurricane), (ii) choosing among fixed options (e.g., which medical treatment is best), or (iii) learning to create options (e.g., how to regulate nanotechnology)? We examine these three classes of decisions in terms of how to characterize, assess, and convey the uncertainties relevant to each. We then offer a protocol for summarizing the many possible sources of uncertainty in standard terms, designed to impose a minimal burden on scientists, while gradually educating those whose decisions depend on their work. Its goals are better decisions, better science, and better support for science.
Journal Article
A History of modernist poetry
\"A History of Modernist Poetry examines innovative Anglophone poetries from Decadence to the post-war period. The first of its three parts considers formal and contextual issues, including myth, politics, gender, and race, while the second and third parts discuss a wide range of individual poets, including Ezra Pound, T.S. Eliot, W.B. Yeats, Mina Loy, Gertrude Stein, Wallace Stevens, William Carlos Williams, and Marianne Moore, as well as key movements such as Imagism, Objectivism, and the Harlem Renaissance. This book also addresses the impact of both World Wars on experimental poetries and the crucial role of magazines in disseminating and proselytizing on behalf of poetic modernism. The collection concludes with a wide-ranging discussion of the inheritance of modernism in recent writing on both sides of the Atlantic\" -- Provided by publisher.
Book
Conditional preparation of non-Gaussian quantum optical states by mesoscopic measurement
Non-Gaussian states of an optical field are important as a proposed resource in quantum information applications. While conditional preparation is a highly successful approach to preparing such states, their quality is limited by detector non-idealities such as dead time, narrow dynamic range, limited quantum efficiency and dark noise. Mesoscopic photon counters, with peak performance at higher photon number, offer many practical advantages over single-photon level conditioning detectors. Here we propose a novel approach involving displacement of the ancilla field into the regime where mesoscopic detectors can be used. We explore this strategy theoretically and present simulations accounting for experimental non-idealities such as loss and amplification noise, showing that precise photon-number resolution is not necessary to herald highly nonclassical states. We conclude that states with strong Wigner negativity can be prepared at high rates by this technique under experimentally attainable conditions.
Journal Article
The effect of providing climate and health information on support for alternative electricity portfolios
Support for addressing climate change and air pollution may depend on the type of information provided to the public. We conduct a discrete choice survey assessing preferences for combinations of electricity generation portfolios, electricity bills, and emissions reductions. We test how participants' preferences change when emissions information is explicitly provided to them. We find that support for climate mitigation increases when mitigation is accompanied by improvements to air quality and human health. We estimate that an average respondent would accept an increase of 19%-27% in their electricity bill if shown information stating that either CO2 or SO2 emissions are reduced by 30%. Furthermore, an average respondent is willing to pay an increase of 30%-40% in electricity bills when shown information stating that both pollutants are reduced by 30% simultaneously. Our findings suggest that the type of emissions information provided to the public will affect their support for different electricity portfolios.
Journal Article
Using graph learning to understand adverse pregnancy outcomes and stress pathways
To identify pathways between stress indicators and adverse pregnancy outcomes, we applied a nonparametric graph-learning algorithm, PC-KCI, to data from an observational prospective cohort study. The Measurement of Maternal Stress study (MOMS) followed 744 women with a singleton intrauterine pregnancy recruited between June 2013 and May 2015. Infant adverse pregnancy outcomes were prematurity (<37 weeks' gestation), infant days spent in hospital after birth, and being small for gestational age (percentile gestational weight at birth). Maternal adverse pregnancy outcomes were pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes, and gestational hypertension. PC-KCI replicated well-established pathways, such as the relationship between gestational weeks and preterm premature rupture of membranes. PC-KCI also identified previously unobserved pathways to adverse pregnancy outcomes, including 1) a link between hair cortisol levels (at 12-21 weeks of pregnancy) and pre-eclampsia; 2) two pathways to preterm birth depending on race, with one linking Hispanic race, pre-gestational diabetes and gestational weeks, and a second pathway linking black race, hair cortisol, preeclampsia, and gestational weeks; and 3) a relationship between maternal childhood trauma, perceived social stress in adulthood, and low weight for gestational age. Our approach confirmed previous findings and identified previously unobserved pathways to adverse pregnancy outcomes. It presents a method for a global assessment of a clinical problem for further study of possible causal pathways.
Journal Article
High-fidelity Modeling of Rotationally Fissioned Asteroids
Binary asteroids represent an important aspect of the dynamical evolution of small bodies and may provide insight into the evolutionary history of these populations as a whole. Many past studies have focused on Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack-driven spinup and disruption as a pathway for binary formation in the inner solar system. While these studies have shown the likelihood that such a process occurred, they are generally limited by assumptions and simplifications in their dynamics models. In this study we apply a high-fidelity and computationally efficient model of binary asteroid dynamics in order to understand the potential effect of higher-order gravity terms and nonplanar dynamics on binary fission. We apply this dynamics model to 66391 Moshup (1999 KW4), 8567 (1996 HW1), and 185851 (2000 DP107) as a representative set of binary and contact binary systems to understand the implications for their fission and formation. Our analysis supports the importance of secondary fission for stable low-mass binary formation as initially suggested by Jacobson and Scheeres. Additionally, we find that the inclusion of higher-fidelity dynamics distorts the dynamical structure of the system, creating a pathway for the secondary to re-collide with the primary. The increased complexity from the inclusion of nonplanar dynamics also suggests more excited spin states of the asteroids during disruptive events such as secondary escape and fission.
Journal Article
Comparing the predictive ability of a commercial artificial intelligence early warning system with physician judgement for clinical deterioration in hospitalised general internal medicine patients: a prospective observational study
ObjectiveOur study compares physician judgement with an automated early warning system (EWS) for predicting clinical deterioration of hospitalised general internal medicine patients.DesignProspective observational study of clinical predictions made at the end of the daytime work-shift for an academic general internal medicine floor team compared with the risk assessment from an automated EWS collected at the same time.SettingInternal medicine teaching wards at a single tertiary care academic medical centre in the USA.ParticipantsIntern physicians working on the internal medicine wards and an automated EWS (Rothman Index by PeraHealth).OutcomeClinical deterioration within 24 hours including cardiac or pulmonary arrest, rapid response team activation or unscheduled intensive care unit transfer.ResultsWe collected predictions for 1874 patient days and saw 35 clinical deteriorations (1.9%). The area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) for the EWS was 0.73 vs 0.70 for physicians (p=0.571). A linear regression model combining physician and EWS predictions had an AUROC of 0.75, outperforming physicians (p=0.016) and the EWS (p=0.05).ConclusionsThere is no significant difference in the performance of the EWS and physicians in predicting clinical deterioration at 24 hours on an inpatient general medicine ward. A combined model outperformed either alone. The EWS and physicians identify partially overlapping sets of at-risk patients suggesting they rely on different cues or decision rules for their predictions.Trial registration number NCT02648828.
Journal Article