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Invasive species pose a major threat to biodiversity and inflict massive economic costs. Effective management of bio-invasions depends on reliable predictions of areas at risk of invasion, as they allow early invader detection and rapid responses. Yet, considerable uncertainty remains as to how to predict best potential invasive distribution ranges. Using a set of mainly (sub)tropical birds introduced to Europe, we show that the true extent of the geographical area at risk of invasion can accurately be determined by using ecophysiological mechanistic models that quantify species’ fundamental thermal niches. Potential invasive ranges are primarily constrained by functional traits related to body allometry and body temperature, metabolic rates, and feather insulation. Given their capacity to identify tolerable climates outside of contemporary realized species niches, mechanistic predictions are well suited for informing effective policy and management aimed at preventing the escalating impacts of invasive species. Forecasts of risks of invasion by non-native species are challenging to obtain. Here, the authors show that mechanistic models based on functional traits related to species’ capacity to generate and retain body heat identify areas at risk of invasion by non-native birds in Europe.

A central question in ecology is why alien species naturalize successfully in some regions but not in others. While some hypotheses suggest aliens are more likely to naturalize in environments similar to donor regions, others suggest they thrive in regions where certain characteristics are different. Using the native (i.e., donor) and recipient distributions of 11,604 naturalized alien plant species across 650 regions globally, we assess whether plants are more likely to naturalize in regions that are ecologically similar or dissimilar to their donor regions. Our results show that species are more likely to naturalize in recipient regions where climates are similar and native floras are phylogenetically similar to those of their donor regions, indicating that pre-adaptation to familiar biotic and abiotic conditions facilitates naturalization. However, naturalization is also more likely in regions with lower native flora diversity and more intense human modification than in the species’ native range. Among all predictors, climate similarity and difference in native flora diversity emerge as the strongest predictors of naturalization success. In conclusion, ecological similarity in some factors but dissimilarity in others between donor and recipient regions promote the naturalization of alien plants and contribute to their uneven global distribution patterns. Across a global dataset of over 11,000 naturalized alien plant species, the authors find that species are likely to naturalize both in regions with climates and floras similar to those in their native ranges, and in regions with a lower diversity or stronger human impact than in their native range.

Due to anthropogenic pressure some species have declined whereas others have increased within their native ranges. Simultaneously, many species introduced by humans have established self-sustaining populations elsewhere (i.e. have become naturalized aliens). Previous studies have shown that particularly plant species that are common within their native range have become naturalized elsewhere. However, how changes in native distributions correlate with naturalization elsewhere is unknown. We compare data on grid-cell occupancy of native vascular plant species over time for 10 European regions (countries or parts thereof). For nine regions, both early occupancy and occupancy change correlate positively with global naturalization success (quantified as naturalization in any administrative region and as the number of such regions). In other words, many plant species spreading globally as naturalized aliens are also expanding within their native regions. This implies that integrating data on native occupancy dynamics in invasion risk assessments might help prevent new invasions. How changes in species’ native occupancy over time relate to global naturalization success remains unclear. Here, the authors show that species with both high occupancy decades ago and increasing native occupancy ever since are more likely to become naturalized elsewhere.

Establishment of nonnative fishes and extirpations of native fishes have homogenized freshwater fish faunas, yet our understanding of the drivers of this process remain limited. We addressed this knowledge gap by testing three hypotheses about introductions and homogenization of fish communities is the eastern United States: First, whether nonnative fish introductions have caused fish faunas to become homogenized or differentiated; second, whether patterns of faunal change are related to native species richness, propagule pressure, and anthropogenic disturbance; third, whether invasion patterns are attributable to either biotic resistance or preadaptation. We compared taxonomic similarity among watersheds in historical and contemporary time steps, and modeled contributions of different drivers to faunal change within watersheds. Average similarity among watersheds nearly doubled in contemporary times, pointing to substantial fish faunal homogenization. No watersheds lost species; patterns of homogenization are attributable entirely to nonnative species invasion. Community change and nonnative richness were positively associated with agriculture-urban land use, recreational fishing demand, and elevation. Native richness negatively affected community change and nonnative richness. Nonnative species originated from watersheds with higher richness than the ones they invaded, suggesting a role for biotic resistance. Understanding how mechanisms operate across spatial scales will help guide future conservation efforts.

Observations reported by citizens are crucial to the ability of scientists to inform policy on biodiversity. This is particularly relevant in the case of preventing and controlling biological invasions; that is, the introduction and spread of species outside their natural ranges as a consequence of human activity. Such invasions of natural ecosystems represent one of the main threats to biodiversity, economy, and human well-being globally, and policies on tackling this issue require a strong evidence base that increasingly is built on citizen science. Many citizens are motivated to collect data for their own interest, while presumably, few expect to make a major impact on policy. The needs of policy-makers are not always aligned with the approaches used by citizens to collect and share data. Therefore, how can we motivate citizen science for the needs of policy without compromising the enjoyment that citizens gain from collecting biodiversity observations? How can policy-makers support citizens to collect the data they need?

Plant invasions substantially impact the ecosystem services provided by forests in urbanizing regions. Knowing where invasion risk is greatest helps target early detection and eradication efforts, but developing an accurate predictive model of invasive species presence and spread on the basis of habitat suitability remains a challenge due to spatial variation in propagule pressure (the number of individuals released) which is likely conflated with suitability. In addition to neighborhood propagule pressure that originates with propagules dispersing from naturalized populations within invaded habitats, we expect residential propagule pressure arising from the widespread use of exotic plants in the yards of single‐family residences to be an important driver of invasions, and to notably improve the predictive accuracy of species distribution models (SDMs). To this end, we collected presence/absence data for a widespread forest invader, Ligustrum sinense (Chinese privet), from 400 stratified random plots located along an urban gradient across the Charlotte, North Carolina metropolitan area. We assessed the relative contribution of residential propagule pressure and neighborhood propagule pressure to improving the predictive performance of a probit SDM for Chinese privet that only contains environmental predictors. Our results indicate that, although the environment‐only model predicted the highest geographic area to be at risk of invasion by privet, it also had the highest rate of failure to accurately predict observed privet occurrences as indicated by the omission (incorrectly predicted absence) and commission (incorrectly predicted presence) error rates. Accounting for residential propagule pressure substantially improved model performance by reducing the omission error by nearly 50%, thereby improving upon the ability of the model to predict privet invasion in suboptimal habitat. Given that this increase in detection was accompanied by a decrease in the geographic area predicted at risk, we conclude that SDMs for invasive exotic shrubs and potentially for other synanthropic generalist plants may be highly inefficient when residential propagule pressure is not accounted for. Accounting for residential propagule pressure in models of invasive plants results in a more focused and accurate prediction of the area at risk, thus enabling decision makers to feasibly prioritize regional scale monitoring and control efforts.

Context Forest loss and fragmentation negatively affect biodiversity. However, disturbances in forest canopy resulting from repeated deforestation and reforestation are also likely important drivers of biodiversity, but are overlooked when forest cover change is assessed using a single time interval. Objectives We investigated two questions at the nexus of plant diversity and forest cover change dynamics: (1) Do multitemporal forest cover change trajectories explain patterns of plant diversity better than a simple measure of overall forest change? (2) Are specific types of forest cover change trajectories associated with significantly higher or lower levels of diversity? Methods We sampled plant biodiversity in forests spanning the Charlotte, NC, region. We derived forest cover change trajectories occurring within nested spatial extents per sample site using a time series of aerial photos from 1938 to 2009, then classified trajectories by spatio-temporal patterns of change. While accounting for landscape and environmental covariates, we assessed the effects of the trajectory classes as compared to net forest cover change on native plant diversity. Results Our results indicated that forest stand diversity is best explained by forest change trajectories, while the herb layer is better explained by net forest cover change. Three distinct forest change trajectory classes were found to influence the forest stand and herb layer. Conclusions The influence of forest dynamics on biodiversity can be overlooked in analyses that use only net forest cover change. Our results illustrate the utility of assessing how specific trajectories of past land cover change influence biodiversity patterns in the present.

Globally, the number of invasive alien species (IAS) continues to increase and management and policy responses typically need to be adopted before conclusive empirical evidence on their environmental and socioeconomic impacts are available. Consequently, numerous protocols exist for assessing IAS impacts and differ considerably in which evidence they include. However, inclusive strategies for building a transparent evidence base underlying IAS impact assessments are lacking, potentially affecting our ability to reliably identify priority IAS. Using alien parrots in Europe as a case study, here we apply an evidence-mapping scheme to classify impact evidence and evaluate the consequences of accepting different subsets of available evidence on impact assessment outcomes. We collected environmental and socioeconomic impact data in multiple languages using a “wiki-review” process, comprising a systematic evidence search and an online editing and consultation phase. Evidence was classified by parrot species, impact category (e.g. infrastructure), geographical area (e.g. native range), source type (e.g. peer-review), study design (e.g. experimental) and impact direction (deleterious, beneficial and no impact). Our comprehensive database comprised 386 impact entries from 233 sources. Most evidence was anecdotal (50%). A total of 42% of entries reported damage to agriculture (mainly in native ranges), while within Europe most entries concerned interspecific competition (39%). We demonstrate that the types of evidence included in assessments can strongly influence impact severity scores. For example, including evidence from the native range or anecdotal evidence resulted in an overall switch from minimal-moderate to moderate-major overall impact scores. We advise using such an evidence-mapping approach to create an inclusive and updatable database as the foundation for more transparent IAS impact assessments. When openly shared, such evidence-mapping can help better inform IAS research, management and policy.

Urban areas are foci for the introduction of non‐native plant species, and they often act as launching sites for invasions into the wider environment. Although interest in biological invasions in urban areas is growing rapidly, and the extent and complexity of problems associated with invasions in these systems have increased, data on the composition and numbers of non‐native plants in urbanized areas remain scattered and idiosyncratic. We assembled data from multiple sources to create the Global Urban Biological Invasions Compendium (GUBIC) for vascular plants representing 553 urban centres from 61 countries across every continent except Antarctica. The GUBIC repository includes 8140 non‐native plant species from 253 families. The number of urban centres in which these non‐native species occurred had a log‐normal distribution, with 65.2% of non‐native species occurring in fewer than 10 urban centres. Practical implications: The dataset has wider applications for urban ecology, invasion biology, macroecology, conservation, urban planning and sustainability. We hope this dataset will stimulate future research in invasion ecology related to the diversity and distributional patterns of non‐native flora across urban centres worldwide. Further, this information should aid the early detection and risk assessment of potential invasive species, inform policy development and assist in setting management priorities. Resumo Áreas urbanas são focos para a introdução de plantas não‐nativas e frequentemente atuam como pontos de introdução para invasões biológicas em ecossistemas naturais. Embora o interesse por invasões biológicas dentro de ecossistemas urbanos esteja crescendo rapidamente e o número e a complexidade dos problemas associados a essas invasões tenham aumentado, os dados sobre as espécies e as quantidades de plantas não‐nativas em áreas urbanizadas permanecem dispersos e idiossincráticos. Incorporamos várias fontes de dados e observações de especialistas para criar uma flora global urbana de plantas não‐nativas para 553 centros urbanos de 61 países em todos os continentes com assentamentos humanos permanentes. conjunto de dados GUBIC inclui 8.140 espécies únicas estabelecidas (naturalizadas) de plantas não‐nativas de 253 famílias. O número de centros urbanos nos quais espécies não‐nativas estabelecidas ocorreram apresentou uma distribuição log‐normal, com 65,2% dos táxons não‐nativos ocorrendo em menos de 10 centros urbanos. Implicações e relevância global: o conjunto de dados GUBIC possui muitas aplicações em ecologia urbana, biologia de invasões, etnobiologia e macroecologia. Esperamos que este conjunto de dados estimule pesquisas em ecologia urbana relacionadas aos padrões de distribuição de espécies de plantas não‐nativas entre centros urbanos e continentes. Além disso, essas informações devem subsidiar o desenvolvimento de políticas, auxiliar na detecção precoce de espécies não nativas invasoras e ajudar na definição de prioridades de manejo. Résumé Les zones urbaines sont des foyers d'introduction d'espèces végétales non natives. Ces zones servent souvent de points de départ pour l'invasion des écosystèmes naturels. Malgré l'intérêt croissant pour l'invasion biologique dans les écosystèmes urbains et l'augmentation du nombre et la complexité des problèmes associés à l'invasion de ces systèmes, les données sur l'identité et le nombre de plantes non natives dans les zones urbaines restent dispersées et idiosyncrasiques. Nous avons intégré plusieurs sources de données et les observations de plusieurs experts pour créer une flore urbaine mondiale d'espèces non natives pour 553 centres urbains de 61 pays sur tous les continents ayant la présence humaine permanente. La base de données GUBIC comprend 8140 espèces végétales non natives uniques établies (naturalisées) appartenant à 253 familles. Le nombre de centres urbains ayant des espèces non natives établies présente une distribution log‐normale, avec 65,2% des taxons non natifs retrouvés dans moins de 10 centres urbains. Implications et pertinence globale: Cette base de données présente de nombreuses applications en écologie urbaine, en biologie de l'invasion, en ethnobiologie et en macroécologie. Nous espérons que cette base de données stimulera la recherche en écologie urbaine sur la distribution des espèces de plantes non natives dans les centres urbains et à travers les continents. Cette information peut être utilisée dans l'élaboration des politiques, assister à la détection précoce des espèces envahissantes et aider à établir les priorités de gestion. Resumen Las áreas urbanas representan focos de introducción de especies no nativas, y frecuentemente actúan como puntos de entrada de especies invasoras hacia ecosistemas naturales. Pese a que el interés en el fenómeno de las invasiones biológicas en ecosistemas urbanos está creciendo rápidamente, ya que los problemas asociados con las invasiones han incrementado, los datos sobre la identidad y número de plantas no nativas en áreas urbanizadas son dispersos e idiosincráticos. Hemos incorporado datos de múltiples fuentes de información y observaciones de expertos para crear una flora global de especies no nativas en 553 centros urbanos de 61 países y de todos los continentes, excepto la Antártida. Esta base de datos global (GUBIC) incluye 8140 especies no nativas, pertenecientes a 253 familias. El número de centros urbanos en que estas especies ocurren exhibe una distribución log‐normal, con 65.2% de los taxanos no nativos establecidos en menos de 10 centros urbanos. Implicaciones prácticas y relevancia: Esta base de datos tiene muchas aplicaciones en ecología urbana, en biología de invasiones biológicas, en etnobotánica y en macroecología. Esperamos que esta base de datos estimule investigaciones en ecología urbana relacionados con patrones de distribución de especies no nativas en distintos centros urbanos y continentes. Además, esta información es básica para el desarrollo de políticas, para la detección temprana de especies invasoras y para la toma de decisiones para priorizar acciones de manejo y gestión. 摘要 城市是引入外来植物物种的重点地区，并且经常成为入侵更广泛自然生态系统的跳板。尽管人们对城市生态系统中生物入侵现象的兴趣正在迅速增长，并且与之相关的数量和复杂性问题也有所增加，但关于城市地区外来植物物种和数量的数据仍零散并缺乏系统性。 本研究整合了多个数据源和专家观察结果，构建了涵盖除南极以外 61 个国家 553 个城市中心的全球城市外来植物群系 (GUBIC)。 GUBIC 数据集包括来自 253 个科的 8140 种归化外来物种。城市中归化外来物种数量呈对数正态分布，其中 65.2% 的外来物种出现在不到10个城市。 应用意义:该数据集在城市生态学、入侵生物学、民族生物学和宏观生态学中有广泛意义和应用价值。我们希望这个数据集能激发城市生态学研究，尤其是那些基于外来植物物种在各个城市和洲际间的分布模式的研究。此外，这些信息也能为政策制定提供信息，并助力于早期发现入侵物种，从而协助优化管理。 Streszczenie Obszary miejskie sa miejscem introdukcji wielu nierodzimych gatunków roślin, a także obszarem z którego zaczynają one wkraczać do ekosystemów naturalnych. Pomimo rosnącego zainteresowania badaczy inwazjami biologicznymi w miastach, liczba i złożoność problemów związanych z rozpoznaniem tego zjawiska wciąż rośnie. Dane opisujące przynależność gatunkową oraz liczbę nierodzimych gatunków w miastach pozostają rozproszone i niespójne pod względem metodyki zbioru oraz dokładności. Zgromadziliśmy dane z wielu dostępnych źródeł oraz obserwacji eksperckich w celu stworzenia flory gatunków nierodzimuch z 553 centrów miejskich, reprezentujących 61 państw ze wszystkich zamieszkanych kontynentów. Baza danych GUBIC zawiera 8140 unikalnych, zadomowionych nierodzimych gatunków roślin należących do 253 rodzin. Rozkład liczby centrów miejskich, w których występują zadomowione gatunki nierodzime, miał charakter log‐normalny, a 65,2% taksonów występowało w mniej niż 10 centrach. Znaczenie badań i wnioski: Prezentowany zbiór danych ma wiele zastosowań w ekologii miast, biologii inwazji, etnobotaniki i makroekologii. Oczekujemy, że jego udostępnienie wesprze dalsze badania nad ekologią miast, związane z identyfikacją wzorców rozmieszczenia nierodzimych gatunków roślin w centrach miejskich na wszystkich kontynentach. Zakładamy również, że nasze dane przyczynią się do rozwoju zasad ochrony przyrody, pomogą w wczesnym wykrywaniu gatunków inwazyjnych oraz ułatwią priorytetyzację zarządzania populacjami gatunków nierodzimych. Zusammenfassung Urbane Räume sind Zentren für die Einbringung gebietsfremder Pflanzenarten und dienen als Ausgangspunkt für deren weitere Ausbreitung. Obwohl das Interesse an biologischen Invasionen in städtischen Ökosystemen rapide zunimmt und die Anzahl und Komplexität der Probleme durch Invasionen in diesen Systemen gestiegen ist, sind die Daten zu Identität und Anzahl gebietsfremder Pflanzenarten in urbanen Räumen nach wie vor nur zerstreut und uneinheitlich vorhanden. Daher haben wir unterschiedlichste Datenquellen und Beobachtungen von Experten zusammengetragen, um einen globalen Datensatz zum Vorkommen von gebietsfremden Pflanzenarten in Städten zu erstellen. Der Datensatz umfasst 553 urbane Räume in 61 Ländern und schließt alle Kontinente mit dauerhafter menschlicher Besiedlung ein. Der GUBIC‐Datensatz enthält 8.140 etablierte (oder eingebürgerte) gebietsfremde Pflanzenarten aus 253 Familien. Die Zahl der urbanen Räume, in denen etablierte gebietsfremde Arten vorkommen, weist eine lognormale Verteilung auf, wobei 65,2% dieser Arten in weniger als zehn urbanen Räumen vorkommen. Anwendbarkeit und Bedeutung: Der Datensatz hat eine Vielzahl an Anwendungsmöglichkeiten, besonders in den Bereichen Stadtökologie, Invasionsbiologie, Ethnobiologie und Makroökologie. Wir hoffen, dass der Datensatz die Erforschung der Verbreitung gebietsfremder Pflanzenarten in urbanen Räumen weiter vorantreiben wird. Darüber hinaus sollen diese Informationen die Entwicklung von politischen Strategien, z.B. für die Früherkennung biologischer Invasionen und die Etablierung von Management‐Prioritäten, unterstützen. 要旨 都市域は、外来植物種が侵入する核心地域であり、より広範な環境へ拡大するための出発点としての機能を担っている。都市生態系において、生物学的侵入に対する社会的・学術的な関心は急速に高まっており、この分野で直面する問題やその複雑さは増している。しかしながら、都市地域における外来植物の種や数に関するデータは依然として散在しており、一貫性を欠いている。 私たちは複数のデータソースと専門家の観察記録を統合し、南極を除く全大陸の61か国にわたる553都市における世界的な都市外来植物のリストを作成した。 GUBICデータセットには、253科8,140種の外来植物が含まれている。定着した外来種が生息する都市の数は対数正

Biogeographical regions reflect differences in biotic composition resulting from long-term isolation and biogeographical processes, but how human-mediated introductions of non-native species have altered these biogeographical patterns remains unclear. Using global distribution data of 279,441 native and 10,067 non-native seed plant species, we analyzed the impact of species introductions on global organization of biogeographical regions. We show that species introductions have disrupted plant biogeography, causing the loss of distinct floristic realms and subrealms. Due to the impact of non-native species, geographic proximity and dispersal barriers are less important— particularly as trade-facilitated species exchange drives floristic homogenization—while environmental factors remain critical in structuring floristic regions. Our findings reveal that plant introductions erode biogeographical distinctness and highlight the urgent need for coordinated action to protect native biotas.