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"De Pinto, Alessandro"
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Climate smart agriculture and global food-crop production
Most business-as-usual scenarios for farming under changing climate regimes project that the agriculture sector will be significantly impacted from increased temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns. Perhaps ironically, agricultural production contributes substantially to the problem with yearly greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of about 11% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions, not including land use change. It is partly because of this tension that Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) has attracted interest given its promise to increase agricultural productivity under a changing climate while reducing emissions. Considerable resources have been mobilized to promote CSA globally even though the potential effects of its widespread adoption have not yet been studied. Here we show that a subset of agronomic practices that are often included under the rubric of CSA can contribute to increasing agricultural production under unfavorable climate regimes while contributing to the reduction of GHG. However, for CSA to make a significant impact important investments and coordination are required and its principles must be implemented widely across the entire sector.
Journal Article
Women’s empowerment and farmland allocations in Bangladesh: evidence of a possible pathway to crop diversification
Climate change will likely affect several of the dimensions that determine people’s food security status in Bangladesh, from crop production to the availability and accessibility of food products. Crop diversification is a form of adaptation to climate change that reduces exposure to climate-related risks and has also been shown to increase diet diversity, reduce micronutrient deficiencies, and positively affect agro-ecological systems. Despite these benefits, the level of crop diversification in Bangladesh remains extremely low, requiring an examination of the factors that support uptake of this practice. This paper explores whether women’s empowerment, measured using the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI), leads to increased diversification in the use of farmland. Our results reveal that some aspects of women’s empowerment in agriculture, but not all, lead to more diversification and to a transition from cereal production to other crops like vegetables and fruits. These findings suggest a possible pathway for gender-sensitive interventions that promote crop diversity as a risk management tool and as a way to improve the availability of nutritious crops.
Journal Article
Assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion
The geographic distribution of natural ecosystems is affected by both climate and cropland. Discussions of future land use/land cover usually focus on how cropland expands and displaces natural vegetation especially as climate change impacts become stronger. Less commonly considered is the direct influence of climate change on natural ecosystems simultaneously with cropland incursion. We combine a natural vegetation model responsive to climate with a cropland allocation algorithm to assess the relative importance of climate change compared to cropland incursion. Globally, the model indicates that climate change drives larger gains and losses than cropland incursion. For example, in the Amazonian rainforests, more than one sixth of the forest area could be lost due to climate change with cropland playing virtually no role. Our findings suggest that policies to protect specific ecosystems may be undercut by climate change and that localized analyses that fully account for the impacts of a changing climate on natural vegetation and agriculture are necessary to formulate policies that preserve natural ecosystems over the long term.
Journal Article
The role of risk in the context of climate change, land use choices and crop production
Most of the studies that investigate the impacts of climate change on agriculture have concentrated on the effects of changes in mean temperature and precipitation even though the importance of volatility and risk on farmers' decision making is well documented. This study examines the empirical importance of the effects of risk associated with the impacts of climate change on farm land allocations and consequent effects on agricultural output in Zambia. We used a discrete-choice model consistent with a mean–variance utility function to model farm-level land allocations among alternative crops. Results indicate that risk-reducing decisions can reinforce crop shifts driven by climate change impacts on mean temperature and precipitation. While an analysis of the available per-capita daily nutrients reveals that farmers' crop allocation choices can mitigate the negative effects of climate change, the opportunity cost of these decisions is explored through a simulation scenario in which yield variability is reduced to zero. Reduction of yield variability leads to land allocations that result in a sizable increase in total crop production and a significant increase in available per capita daily calories. Important conclusions can be derived from this analysis. First, the risk environment matters and should not be ignored. When the economic effects of climate change are considered, decision making under uncertainty and risk should be at the forefront of the problems that need to be addressed. Second, concentrating on farm-level effects of responses to climate change is not sufficient. To understand the economy-wide consequences of climate change, the aggregate effects of individual decisions should be assessed. Third, results indicate that increased efforts in risk management and in developing policies aimed at reducing risk can lead to significant positive outcomes for the nutritional status of low-income, food-insecure populations.
Journal Article
Impacts of Road Expansion on Deforestation and Biological Carbon Loss in the Democratic Republic of Congo
This paper develops a nested land use model for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The model is capable of systematically representing broad land covers and allocating agricultural area to the country relevant crops. We apply the model to assess the potential environmental impacts of road development in the country. Results indicate that an ongoing plan for road network expansion in the country would cause a reduction of more than 2 % in the existing forest resources, an increase of about 16 % in the current agricultural land, and a total loss of carbon stock estimated to be 316 TgC. The DRC government should consider forest protection a priority as road development is promoted. A plan for agricultural intensification could be safely pursued if coupled with necessary resources to prevent deforestation.
Journal Article
Land Use Change with Spatially Explicit Data: A Dynamic Approach
Most of the economic literature that uses spatially-explicit data to estimate the determinants of land-use change is limited to static models and cross-sectional data sets. Recent attempts to move to a more dynamic analysis include using panel data sets and survival analysis. In this study, we use a discrete choice dynamic model of land-use where the agent's choices are regarded as the solution to a dynamic optimization problem. The irreversibility of some decisions, expectations about future prices, and forward-looking behavior of the land operator can all be accounted for. Our results show that a model specification that incorporates some of the complexities of the decision process improves upon results found in the existing literature. First, prediction accuracy of land use change is superior to any of the existing models. Second, we demonstrate that models that do not account for transactions costs tend to overestimate the effects of changes in transportation costs.
Journal Article