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Background This multicenter study is aimed at estimating changes in the effect of high temperatures on elderly mortality before and after the 2003 heat waves and following the introduction of heat prevention activities. Methods A total of sixteen cities were included in the study. City-specific relationships between maximum apparent temperature (MAT) and elderly daily mortality before (1998–2002) and after (2006–2010) intervention were modelled through non-linear distributed lag models and estimates were combined using a random effect meta-analysis. We estimated the percentage change in daily mortality for 3°C variations in MAT above the 25 th percentile of the June city-specific 1998–2002 distribution. A time-varying analysis was carried out to describe intra-seasonal variations in the two periods. Results We observed a reduction in high temperatures’ effect post intervention; the greatest reduction was for increases in temperature from 9°C to 12°C above the 25 th percentile, with a decrease from +36.7% to +13.3%. A weak effect was observed for temperatures up to 3°C above the 25 th percentile only after. Changes were month-specific with a reduction in August and an increase in May, June and September in 2006–2010. Conclusions A change in the temperature-mortality relationship was observed, attributable to variations in temperature distributions during summer and to the introduction of adaptation measures. The reduction in the effect of high temperature suggests that prevention programs can mitigate the impact. An effect of lower temperature remains, indicating a relevant impact of temperature at the beginning of summer when the population has not yet adapted and intervention activities are not fully operational.

Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures. We collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature–mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles. We analysed 74 225 200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43–7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80–90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02–7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39–0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84–0·87) of total mortality. Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios. UK Medical Research Council.

Animal agriculture has exponentially grown in recent decades in response to the rise in global demand for meat, even in countries like Italy that traditionally eat a Mediterranean, plant-based diet. Globalization related dietary changes are contributing to the epidemic of non-communicable diseases and to the global climate crisis, and are associated with huge carbon and water footprints. The objective of the study is to assess inequalities in health impacts and in attributable greenhouse gases-GHG emissions in Italy by hypothesizing different scenarios of reduction in red and processed meat consumption towards healthier consumption patterns more compliant with the recommendations of the Mediterranean food pyramid. We used demographic and food consumption patterns from national surveys and risk relationships between meat intake and cardiovascular and colorectal cancer mortality from IARC and other meta-analyses. From the baseline data (year 2005-2006, average 406 gr/week beef and 245 gr/week processed meat), we considered hypothetical meat reduction scenarios according to international dietary guidelines such as the Mediterranean pyramid targets. For each geographical area (Northwest, Northeast, Centre, and South) and gender, we calculated the number of avoidable deaths from colorectal cancer, and cardiovascular disease among the adult population. Moreover, years of life gained by the adult population from 2012 to 2030 and changes in life expectancy of the 2012 birth cohort were quantified using gender-specific life tables. GHG emission reductions under Mediterranean scenario were estimated only for beef by applying the Global Warming Potential (GWP) coefficient to total consumption and to a low carbon food substitution in adult diet. The deaths avoidable (as percentage change compared to baseline) according to the three reduction scenarios for beef consumption were between 2.3% and 4.5% for colorectal cancer, and between 2.1% and 4.0% for cardiovascular disease; higher benefits would be observed in Northwestern areas and among males. In parallel, 5% and 6.4% of colorectal cancer and CVD deaths would be avoided if the Italian population ate the advised quantity of processed meat. Life table analysis suggests that the scenario that is fully compliant with the Mediterranean diet model would save 5 million years of life lost prematurely among men and women over the next 18 years and would increase average life expectancy of future generations by over 7 months. Considering the environmental impact, emissions associated with the actual total intake of beef range from 12,900 to 21,800 Gg CO2 eq; emissions saved according to the Mediterranean scenario are in the range 8000-14000 Gg CO2 eq per year. The per capita reduction is 263 KgCO2eq/year/person with higher reductions in Northwestern and Central areas. In Italy, scenarios for reducing beef consumption are consistent with significant health and environmental co-benefits on current and future generations. Results support introducing policies to promote healthier behavior towards red and processed meat in the adult population within an overall balanced and healthy dietary pattern. Interventions should address gender, vulnerable population groups, and geographical differences in order to be more effective.

Background Standardized mortality surveillance data, capable of detecting variations in total mortality at population level and not only among the infected, provide an unbiased insight into the impact of epidemics, like COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease). We analysed the temporal trend in total excess mortality and deaths among positive cases of SARS-CoV-2 by geographical area (north and centre-south), age and sex, taking into account the deficit in mortality in previous months. Methods Data from the Italian rapid mortality surveillance system was used to quantify excess deaths during the epidemic, to estimate the mortality deficit during the previous months and to compare total excess mortality with deaths among positive cases of SARS-CoV-2. Data were stratified by geographical area (north vs centre and south), age and sex. Results COVID-19 had a greater impact in northern Italian cities among subjects aged 75–84 and 85+ years. COVID-19 deaths accounted for half of total excess mortality in both areas, with differences by age: almost all excess deaths were from COVID-19 among adults, while among the elderly only one third of the excess was coded as COVID-19. When taking into account the mortality deficit in the pre-pandemic period, different trends were observed by area: all excess mortality during COVID-19 was explained by deficit mortality in the centre and south, while only a 16% overlap was estimated in northern cities, with quotas decreasing by age, from 67% in the 15–64 years old to 1% only among subjects 85+ years old. Conclusions An underestimation of COVID-19 deaths is particularly evident among the elderly. When quantifying the burden in mortality related to COVID-19, it is important to consider seasonal dynamics in mortality. Surveillance data provide an impartial indicator for monitoring the following phases of the epidemic, and may help in the evaluation of mitigation measures adopted.

In several volcanic areas of Italy, arsenic levels exceed European regulatory limits (10 μg/L in drinking water). There is still uncertainty about health risks from arsenic at low-medium doses (<100 μg/L). A large population-based study using an administrative cohort of residents in the Viterbo province (Central Italy), chronically exposed to low-medium arsenic levels via drinking water, was investigated to evaluate the effects of a lifetime exposure to arsenic on mortality from cancers and chronic diseases. The study population consisted of 165,609 residents of 17 municipalities, followed from 1990 until 2010. Average individual arsenic exposure at the first residence (AsI) was estimated through a space-time modeling approach using residential history and arsenic concentrations from water supply. A time-dependent Cumulative Arsenic dose Indicator (CAI) was calculated, accounting for daily water intake and exposure duration. Mortality Hazard Ratios (HR) were estimated by gender for different diseases using Cox proportional models, adjusting for individual and area-level confounders. A flexible non-parametric approach was used to investigate dose-response relationships. Mean AsI exposure was 19.3 μg/L, and average exposure duration was 39.5 years. Associations of AsI and CAI indicators with several diseases were found, with greatest risks found for lung cancer in both sexes (HR = 2.61 males; HR = 2.09 females), myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease and COPD in males (HR = 2.94; HR = 2.44; HR = 2.54 respectively) and diabetes in females (HR = 2.56). For lung cancer and cardiovascular diseases dose-response relationship is modelled by piecewise linear functions revealing effects even for doses lower than 10 μg/L, and no threshold dose value was identified as safe for health. Results provide new evidence for risk assessment of low-medium concentrations of arsenic and contribute to the ongoing debate about the threshold-dose of effect, suggesting that even concentrations below 10 μg/L carry a mortality risk. Policy actions are urgently needed in areas exposed to arsenic like in the Viterbo province, to comply with current EU regulations.

Objective To conduct a systematic review to evaluate the association between residential or occupational short- and long–term exposure to odour pollution from industrial sources and the health status of the exposed population. Methods The searches were conducted in Medline, EMBASE and Scopus in April 2021. Exposure to an environmental odour from industrial sources in population resident near the source or in workers was considered. We considered outcomes for which there was a biological plausibility, such as wheezing and asthma, cough, headache, nausea and vomiting (primary outcomes). We also included stress-related symptoms and novel outcomes (e.g. mood states). Risk of bias was evaluated using the OHAT tool. For primary outcomes, when at least 3 studies provided effect estimates by comparing exposed subjects versus not exposed, we pooled the study-specific estimates of odour-related effect using random effects models. Heterogeneity was evaluated with Higgins I 2 . Results Thirty studies were eligible for this review, mainly cross-sectional ( n  = 23). Only one study involved school-age children and two studies involved workers. Only five studies reported odour effects on objective laboratory or clinical outcomes. Animal Feeding Operations and waste were the most common industrial sources. The overall odds ratios in exposed versus not exposed population were 1.15 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.29) for headache (7 studies), 1.09 (95% CI 0.88 to 1.30) for nausea/vomiting (7 studies), and 1.27 (95% CI 1.10 to 1.44) for cough/phlegm (5 studies). Heterogeneity was a moderate concern. Overall, the body of evidence was affected by a definitely high risk of bias in exposure and outcome assessment since most studies used self-reported information. Conclusions Findings underline the public health importance of odour pollution for population living nearby industrial odour sources. The limited evidence for most outcomes supports the need for high quality epidemiological studies on the association between odour pollution and its effects on human health.

Evidence on the health effects of extreme temperatures and air pollution is copious. However few studies focused on their interaction. The aim of this study is to evaluate daily PM10 and ozone as potential effect modifiers of the relationship between temperature and natural mortality in 25 Italian cities. Time-series analysis was run for each city. To evaluate interaction, a tensor product between mean air temperature (lag 0–3) and either PM10 or ozone (both lag 0–5) was defined and temperature estimates were extrapolated at low, medium, and high levels of pollutants. Heat effects were estimated as percent change in mortality for increases in temperature between 75th and 99th percentiles. Results were pooled by geographical area. Differential temperature-mortality risks by air pollutants were found. For PM10, estimates ranged from 3.9% (low PM10) to 14.1% (high PM10) in the North, from 3.6% to 24.4% in the Center, and from 7.5% to 21.6% in the South. Temperature-related mortality was similarly modified by ozone in northern and central Italy, while no effect modification was observed in the South. This study underlines the synergistic effects of heat and air pollution on mortality. Considering the predicted increase in heat waves and stagnation events in the Mediterranean countries such as Italy, it is time to enclose air pollution within public health heat prevention plans.

Background Municipal solid waste incinerators (MSWIs) are widely used for waste management. However, the health effects of their emissions remain uncertain, needing further investigation and monitoring of the potential risks associated with such exposure. The aim of this study is to update and synthesize evidence on the health effects of residential exposure to MSWIs. Methods A systematic review with meta-analysis was conducted following PRISMA guidelines. The systematic search in MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science (April 2025), using specific search strategies, identified observational studies reporting quantitative estimates on the association between long term residential exposure to MSWIs and health outcomes. Study quality was assessed using the Navigation Guide tool. A narrative synthesis was conducted for all outcomes. When possible, a random-effects meta-analysis was performed and Higgins I 2 was used to summarize heterogeneity. For the overall body of evidence, heatmaps were used to visually represent the direction of the associations (positive, negative or lack of association) stratified by study quality. Results Out of 3,273 records identified, 51 studies were included. The most frequently investigated outcomes were congenital anomalies, pregnancy outcomes, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, and cancers. The narrative synthesis suggests a weak association for hospitalizations due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in high-quality studies and a potential increased risk for non-Hodgkin lymphoma, based on low-quality evidence. The meta-analysis confirms a slight increased risk for respiratory diseases (HR 1.02; 95% CI 0.94–1.11), particularly for COPD (HR 1.08; 95% CI 0.82–1.41) and asthma (HR 1.02; 95% CI 1.00–1.05). Moderate heterogeneity was observed for most outcomes (I 2  = 30%-60%). Conclusions This review highlights the current uncertainty surrounding the long-term health effects of MSWI exposure. While a slight indication of increased risk emerged for cardiovascular and respiratory hospitalizations, and a weak association with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma was observed, overall evidence remains weak. Methodological limitations, heterogeneity across studies, and low exposure levels complicate risk assessment and comparability. Standardized, high-quality research is needed to clarify these associations and support evidence-based public health decisions and transparent communication with affected communities. Trial registration The protocol of this review was registered in PROSPERO on 02/06/2024 (CRD42024550168).

The increasing burden of chronic diseases associated with the ageing of the European population constitutes one of the main challenges for the welfare systems in developed western countries, especially through its impact on the use of hospital services and the cost of care. This study aims at evaluating the cost of hospital care for older adults living in the Lazio Region, Italy, according to their level of frailty. Since 2014 a longitudinal randomized cohort study has been carried out on a sample consisting of 1280 older adults aged over 64 years resident in the Lazio region (Italy), with their being evaluated for multidimensional frailty. Accesses to Hospital Services (acute care and Day Hospital care admissions and Emergency Room accesses) during the first year after enrolment, as well as the related costs have been recorded through a regional database. Costs have been stratified on the basis of the state of frailty. The analysis of hospital services and costs highlights the role played by pre-frail individuals who generated 49.3% of the hospital care cumulative costs. Hospital Admission (HA) costs arising from robust and pre-frail subjects are 70% of the total HA costs. Pre-frail individuals also showed the highest average HA cost per person/year (7062.89 Euros). The main determinant of the highest HA costs was given by the number of HAs during the follow-up (multivariate linear regression, ß coefficient = 0.319; p<0.001), which was higher among pre-frail individuals than in any other group of patients. Pre-frail individuals generated the highest cost for hospital care in a sample of representative subjects living in an Italian Region with a low rate of community care services, as is the case in the Lazio region. Assessment of the multidimensional frailty of older adults permits a better definition of the important target of the pre-frail population as the main category within which interventions to prevent or mitigate frailty should be carried out.

Episode analyses of heat waves have documented a comparatively higher impact on mortality than on morbidity (hospital admissions) in European cities. The evidence from daily time series studies is scarce and inconsistent. To evaluate the impact of high environmental temperatures on hospital admissions during April to September in 12 European cities participating in the Assessment and Prevention of Acute Health Effects of Weather Conditions in Europe (PHEWE) project. For each city, time series analysis was used to model the relationship between maximum apparent temperature (lag 0-3 days) and daily hospital admissions for cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory causes by age (all ages, 65-74 age group, and 75+ age group), and the city-specific estimates were pooled for two geographical groupings of cities. For respiratory admissions, there was a positive association that was heterogeneous between cities. For a 1 degrees C increase in maximum apparent temperature above a threshold, respiratory admissions increased by +4.5% (95% confidence interval, 1.9-7.3) and +3.1% (95% confidence interval, 0.8-5.5) in the 75+ age group in Mediterranean and North-Continental cities, respectively. In contrast, the association between temperature and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular admissions tended to be negative and did not reach statistical significance. High temperatures have a specific impact on respiratory admissions, particularly in the elderly population, but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Why high temperature increases cardiovascular mortality but not cardiovascular admissions is also unclear. The impact of extreme heat events on respiratory admissions is expected to increase in European cities as a result of global warming and progressive population aging.