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Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it  provides 1 , 2 . Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity 3 ; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge 4 . Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity 5 . We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042–2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34–50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats—such as climate change—must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy. To promote the recovery of the currently declining global trends in terrestrial biodiversity, increases in both the extent of land under conservation management and the sustainability of the global food system from farm to fork are required.

Crop pest and disease incidences at plot scale vary as a result of landscape effects. Two main effects can be distinguished. First, landscape context provides habitats of variable quality for pests, pathogens, and beneficial and vector organisms. Second, the movements of these organisms are dependent on the connectivity status of the landscape. Most of the studies focus on indirect effects of landscape context on pest abundance through their predators and parasitoids, and only a few on direct effects on pests and pathogens. Here we studied three coffee pests and pathogens, with limited or no pressure from host-specific natural enemies, and with widely varying life histories, to test their relationships with landscape context: a fungus, Hemileia vastatrix , causal agent of coffee leaf rust; an insect, the coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei (Coleoptera: Curculionidae); and root-knot nematodes, Meloidogyne spp. Their incidence was assessed in 29 coffee plots from Turrialba, Costa Rica. In addition, we characterized the landscape context around these coffee plots in 12 nested circular sectors ranging from 50 to 1500 m in radius. We then performed correlation analysis between proportions of different land uses at different scales and coffee pest and disease incidences. We obtained significant positive correlations, peaking at the 150 m radius, between coffee berry borer abundance and proportion of coffee in the landscape. We also found significant positive correlations between coffee leaf rust incidence and proportion of pasture, peaking at the 200 m radius. Even after accounting for plot level predictors of coffee leaf rust and coffee berry borer through covariance analysis, the significance of landscape structure was maintained. We hypothesized that connected coffee plots favored coffee berry borer movements and improved its survival. We also hypothesized that wind turbulence, produced by low-wind-resistance land uses such as pasture, favored removal of coffee leaf rust spore clusters from host surfaces, resulting in increased epidemics. In contrast, root-knot nematode population density was not correlated to landscape context, possibly because nematodes are almost immobile in the soil. We propose fragmenting coffee plots with forest corridors to control coffee berry borer movements between coffee plots without favoring coffee leaf rust dispersal.

Dietary diversity is associated with nutrient adequacy and positive health outcomes but indicators to measure diversity have focused primarily on consumption, rather than sustainable provisioning of food. The Nutritional Functional Diversity score was developed by ecologists to describe the contribution of biodiversity to sustainable diets. We have employed this tool to estimate the relative contribution of home production and market purchases in providing nutritional diversity to agricultural households in Malawi and examine how food system provisioning varies by time, space and socio-economic conditions. A secondary analysis of nationally representative household consumption data to test the applicability of the Nutritional Functional Diversity score. The data were collected between 2010 and 2011 across the country of Malawi. Households (n 11 814) from predominantly rural areas of Malawi. Nutritional Functional Diversity varied demographically, geographically and temporally. Nationally, purchased foods contributed more to household nutritional diversity than home produced foods (mean score=17·5 and 7·8, respectively). Households further from roads and population centres had lower overall diversity (P<0·01) and accessed relatively more of their diversity from home production than households closer to market centres (P<0·01). Nutritional diversity was lowest during the growing season when farmers plant and tend crops (P<0·01). The present analysis demonstrates that the Nutritional Functional Diversity score is an effective indicator for identifying populations with low nutritional diversity and the relative roles that markets, agricultural extension and home production play in achieving nutritional diversity. This information may be used by policy makers to plan agricultural and market-based interventions that support sustainable diets and local food systems.

The food system is a major driver of climate change, changes in land use, depletion of freshwater resources, and pollution of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems through excessive nitrogen and phosphorus inputs. Here we show that between 2010 and 2050, as a result of expected changes in population and income levels, the environmental effects of the food system could increase by 50–90% in the absence of technological changes and dedicated mitigation measures, reaching levels that are beyond the planetary boundaries that define a safe operating space for humanity. We analyse several options for reducing the environmental effects of the food system, including dietary changes towards healthier, more plant-based diets, improvements in technologies and management, and reductions in food loss and waste. We find that no single measure is enough to keep these effects within all planetary boundaries simultaneously, and that a synergistic combination of measures will be needed to sufficiently mitigate the projected increase in environmental pressures. A global model finds that the environmental impacts of the food system could increase by 60–90% by 2050, and that dietary changes, improvements in technologies and management, and reductions in food loss and waste will all be needed to mitigate these impacts.

There is an ongoing debate on what constitutes sustainable intensification of agriculture (SIA). In this paper, we propose that a paradigm for sustainable intensification can be defined and translated into an operational framework for agricultural development. We argue that this paradigm must now be defined—at all scales—in the context of rapidly rising global environmental changes in the Anthropocene, while focusing on eradicating poverty and hunger and contributing to human wellbeing. The criteria and approach we propose, for a paradigm shift towards sustainable intensification of agriculture, integrates the dual and interdependent goals of using sustainable practices to meet rising human needs while contributing to resilience and sustainability of landscapes, the biosphere, and the Earth system. Both of these, in turn, are required to sustain the future viability of agriculture. This paradigm shift aims at repositioning world agriculture from its current role as the world's single largest driver of global environmental change, to becoming a key contributor of a global transition to a sustainable world within a safe operating space on Earth.

Achieving sustainable development goals requires targeting and monitoring sustainable solutions tailored to different social and ecological contexts. A social-ecological systems (SESs) framework was developed to help diagnose problems, identify complex interactions, and solutions tailored to each SES. Here we develop a data-driven method for upscaling the SES framework and apply it to a context where data is scarce, but also where solutions towards sustainable development are needed. The purpose of upscaling the framework is to create a tool that facilitates decision-making in data-scarce contexts. We mapped SES by applying the framework to poverty alleviation and food security issues in the Volta River basin in Ghana and Burkina Faso. We found archetypical configurations of SES in space, and discuss where agricultural innovations such as water reservoirs might have a stronger impact at increasing food availability and therefore alleviating poverty and hunger. We conclude by outlining how the method can be used in other SES comparative studies.

Declining biodiversity and ecosystem functions put many of nature’s contributions to people at risk. We review and synthesize the scientific literature to assess 50-y global trends across a broad range of nature’s contributions. We distinguish among trends in potential and realized contributions of nature, as well as environmental conditions and the impacts of changes in nature on human quality of life. We find declining trends in the potential for nature to contribute in the majority of material, nonmaterial, and regulating contributions assessed. However, while the realized production of regulating contributions has decreased, realized production of agricultural and many material commodities has increased. Environmental declines negatively affect quality of life, but social adaptation and the availability of substitutes partially offset this decline for some of nature’s contributions. Adaptation and substitutes, however, are often imperfect and come at some cost. For many of the contributions of nature, we find differing trends across different countries and regions, income classes, and ethnic and social groups, reinforcing the argument for more consistent and equitable measurement.

Ecosystem-service production is strongly influenced by the landscape configuration of natural and human systems. Ecosystem services are not only produced and consumed locally but can be transferred within and among ecosystems. The time and distance between the producer and the consumer of ecosystem services can be considered lags in ecosystem-service provisioning. Incorporation of heterogeneity and lag effects into conservation incentives helps identify appropriate governance systems and incentive mechanisms for effective ecosystem-service management. These spatiotemporal dimensions are particularly apparent in river—riparian systems, which provide a suite of important ecosystem services and promote biodiversity conservation at multiple scales, including habitat protection and functional connectivity. Management of ecosystem services with spatiotemporal lags requires an interdisciplinary consideration of both the biophysical landscape features that produce services and the human actors that control and benefit from the creation of those services.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) emphasize the global and multidimensional nature of sustainability and thus require improving our capacity to articulate and trace the impact of ecosystem change to measures of human well-being. Yet, the integrated nature of these goals is challenging to assess without similarly integrated assessment tools. We present a new modeling toolkit, “Mapping Ecosystem Services to Human well-being” (MESH), that integrates commonly used, stand-alone ecosystem services (ES) models from the InVEST suite of models to quantify and illustrate the trade-offs and synergies across five ecosystem services and up to 10 associated SDGs. Development of the software and its functionality were informed by a broad stakeholder consultation with ministries, non-governmental organizations and civil society groups in West Africa to identify common barriers to uptake and application of modeling tools in developing countries. In light of this process, key features included in MESH are (1) integration of multiple ecosystem service (ES) models into a common modeling framework supported by a curated base data set, (2) built-in scenario generation capacity to support policy analysis, (3) visualization of outcomes and trade-offs, and (4) mapping of ecosystem service change to SDG targets and goals. We illustrate the use of MESH in a case study in the Volta basin of West Africa comparing the effectiveness of three alternative conservation prioritization approaches: (1) land cover-based, (2) topographic-based, and (3) an ecosystem service-based approach to minimize the impact of agricultural expansion. We evaluate these approaches by linking changes in service supply to potential impacts on achievement of specific SDG goals and targets.