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"Demers, Elizabeth S"
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Keeping a store: The social and commercial worlds of John Askin in the eighteenth-century Great Lakes, 1763-1796
John Askin arrived in the Great Lakes in 1763 to work as a merchant in the lucrative transatlantic fur trade. By 1796, he had amassed significant personal wealth that included real estate, goods, and slaves. He also achieved social prominence and political influence both locally and within the larger fur trade milieu of the Great Lakes borderland. This dissertation reveals not only how Askin achieved such success in his lifetime, but uses Askin as a case study to examine how merchants used their social and political networks in the course of everyday business. Intermarriage with Indian women and kinship with Native groups were crucial strategies for fur trade success; so was slavery, both Indian and African, which British merchants commonly used to increase labor, capital, and social wealth. The carrying and supply trade, including agriculture, were also significant aspects of the trade. John Askin was a frontier type, whose wealth, influence, and power both created the unique characteristics of the Great Lakes borderland and ultimately helped bring about its demise at the beginning of the nineteenth century.
Dissertation
Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2022
Regular cancer surveillance is crucial for understanding where progress is being made and where more must be done. We sought to provide an overview of the expected burden of cancer in Canada in 2022.
We obtained data on new cancer incidence from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System (1984–1991) and Canadian Cancer Registry (1992–2018). Mortality data (1984–2019) were obtained from the Canadian Vital Statistics — Death Database. We projected cancer incidence and mortality counts and rates to 2022 for 22 cancer types by sex and province or territory. Rates were age standardized to the 2011 Canadian standard population.
An estimated 233 900 new cancer cases and 85 100 cancer deaths are expected in Canada in 2022. We expect the most commonly diagnosed cancers to be lung overall (30 000), breast in females (28 600) and prostate in males (24 600). We also expect lung cancer to be the leading cause of cancer death, accounting for 24.3% of all cancer deaths, followed by colorectal (11.0%), pancreatic (6.7%) and breast cancers (6.5%). Incidence and mortality rates are generally expected to be higher in the eastern provinces of Canada than the western provinces.
Although overall cancer rates are declining, the number of cases and deaths continues to climb, owing to population growth and the aging population. The projected high burden of lung cancer indicates a need for increased tobacco control and improvements in early detection and treatment. Success in breast and colorectal cancer screening and treatment likely account for the continued decline in their burden. The limited progress in early detection and new treatments for pancreatic cancer explains why it is expected to be the third leading cause of cancer death in Canada.
Journal Article
Oh What a Beautiful Morning! Diurnal Influences on Executives and Analysts: Evidence from Conference Calls
This study provides novel evidence that expert economic agents’ work-related activities are systematically influenced by the time of day. We use archival data derived from time-stamped quarterly earnings conference calls together with linguistic algorithms to measure and track the moods of executives and analysts at different times of the day. The evidence indicates that the tone of conference call discussions deteriorates markedly over the course of the trading day, with both analysts’ and executives’ moods becoming more negative as the day wears on. Capital market pricing tests reveal that the time-of-day-induced negative tone leads to temporary stock mispricings. Our findings are relevant because the diurnal variations in behavior documented in the context of quarterly earnings calls are likely to extend across other important corporate communication, decision making, and performance situations, leading to potentially significant economic consequences.
This paper was accepted by Shiva Rajgopal, accounting.
Journal Article
Dorsal Anterior Cingulate Thickness Is Related to Alexithymia in Childhood Trauma-Related PTSD
Alexithymia, or \"no words for feelings\", is highly prevalent in samples with childhood maltreatment and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) has been identified as a key region involved in alexithymia, early life trauma, and PTSD. Functional alterations in the dACC also have been associated with alexithymia in PTSD. This study examined whether dACC morphology is a neural correlate of alexithymia in child maltreatment-related PTSD. Sixteen adults with PTSD and a history of childhood sexual abuse, physical abuse, or exposure to domestic violence, and 24 healthy controls (HC) completed the Toronto Alexithymia Scale 20 (TAS-20) and underwent magnetic resonance imaging. Cortical thickness of the dACC was measured using FreeSurfer, and values were correlated with TAS-20 scores, controlling for sex and age, in both groups. Average TAS-20 score was significantly higher in the PTSD than the HC group. TAS-20 scores were significantly positively associated with dACC thickness only in the PTSD group. This association was strongest in the left hemisphere and for TAS-20 subscales that assess difficulty identifying and describing feelings. We found that increasing dACC gray matter thickness is a neural correlate of greater alexithymia in the context of PTSD with childhood maltreatment. While findings are correlational, they motivate further inquiry into the relationships between childhood adversity, emotional awareness and expression, and dACC morphologic development in trauma-related psychopathology.
Journal Article
The effects of antipsychotic discontinuation or maintenance on the process of recovery in remitted first-episode psychosis patients – A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials
The optimal duration of antipsychotic treatment following remission of first-episode psychosis (FEP) is uncertain, considering potential adverse effects and individual variability in relapse rates. This study aimed to investigate the effect of antipsychotic discontinuation compared to continuation on recovery in remitted FEP patients.
CENTRAL, MEDLINE (Ovid), Embase, and PsycINFO databases were searched on November 2, 2023, with no language restrictions. RCTs evaluating antipsychotic discontinuation in remitted FEP patients were selected. The primary outcome was personal recovery, and secondary outcomes included functional recovery, global functioning, hospital admission, symptom severity, quality of life, side effects, and employment. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool 2, and the certainty of evidence was evaluated with GRADE. Meta-analysis used a random-effect model with an inverse-variance approach.
Among 2185 screened studies, 8 RCTs (560 participants) were included. No RCTs reported personal recovery as an outcome. Two studies measured functional recovery, and discontinuation group patients were more likely to achieve functional recovery (RR 2.19; 95% CIs: 1.13, 4.22; I
= 0%; n = 128), although evidence certainty was very low. No significant differences were found in hospital admission, symptom severity, quality of life, global functioning, or employment between the discontinuation and continuation groups.
Personal recovery was not reported in any antipsychotic discontinuation trial in remitted FEP. The observed positive effect of discontinuation on functional recovery came from an early terminated trial and an RCT followed by an uncontrolled period. These findings should be interpreted cautiously due to very low certainty of evidence.
Journal Article
Coupling of nitric acid digestion and anion-exchange resin separation for the determination of methylmercury isotopic composition within organisms
Isotope ratios of methylmercury (MeHg) within organisms can be used to identify sources of MeHg that have accumulated in food webs, but these isotopic compositions are masked in organisms at lower trophic levels by the presence of inorganic mercury (iHg). To facilitate measurement of MeHg isotope ratios in organisms, we developed a method of extracting and isolating MeHg from fish and aquatic invertebrates for compound-specific isotopic analysis involving nitric acid digestion, batch anion-exchange resin separation, and pre-concentration by purge and trap. Recovery of MeHg was quantified after each step in the procedure, and the average cumulative recovery of MeHg was 93.4 ± 2.9% (1 SD,
n
= 28) for biological reference materials and natural biota samples and 96.9 ± 1.8% (1 SD,
n
= 5) for aqueous MeHgCl standards. The amount of iHg impurities was also quantified after each step, and the average MeHg purity was 97.8 ± 4.3% (1 SD,
n
= 28) across all reference materials and natural biota samples after the final separation step. Measured MeHg isotopic compositions of reference materials agreed with literature values obtained using other MeHg separation techniques, and MeHg isotope ratios of aqueous standards, reference materials, and natural biota samples were reproducible. On average, the reproducibility associated with reference material process replicates (2 SD) was 0.10‰ for δ
202
MeHg and 0.04‰ for Δ
199
MeHg. This new method provides a streamlined, reliable technique that utilizes a single sample aliquot for MeHg concentration and isotopic analysis. This promotes a tight coupling between MeHg concentration, %MeHg, and Hg isotopic composition, which may be especially beneficial for studying complex food webs with multiple isotopically distinct sources of iHg and/or MeHg.
Graphical abstract
Journal Article
Prevalence of schizophrenia spectrum and other psychotic disorders in problem gambling: A systematic review and meta-analysis
High rates of psychiatric comorbidities have been found in people with problem gambling (PBG), including substance use, anxiety, and mood disorders. Psychotic disorders have received less attention, although this comorbidity is expected to have a significant impact on the course, consequences, and treatment of PBG. This review aimed to estimate the prevalence of psychotic disorders in PBG.
Medline (Ovid), EMBASE, PsycINFO (Ovid), CINAHL, CENTRAL, Web of Science, and ProQuest were searched on November 1, 2023, without language restrictions. Studies involving people with PBG and reporting the prevalence of schizophrenia spectrum and other psychotic disorders were included. Risk of bias was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal checklist for systematic reviews of prevalence data. The pooled prevalence of psychotic disorders was calculated using a random effects generalized linear mixed model and presented with forest plots.
Of 1,271 records screened, 22 studies (
= 19,131) were included. The overall prevalence of psychotic disorders was 4.9% (95% CI, 3.6-6.5%,
= 88%). A lower prevalence was found in surveyed/recruited populations, compared with treatment-seeking individuals and register-based studies. No differences were found for factors such as treatment setting (inpatient/outpatient), diagnoses of psychotic disorders (schizophrenia only/other psychotic disorders), and assessment time frame (current/lifetime). The majority of included studies had a moderate risk of bias.
These findings highlight the relevance of screening problem gamblers for schizophrenia spectrum and other psychotic disorders, as well as any other comorbid mental health conditions, given the significant impact such comorbidities can have on the recovery process.
Journal Article
IPO Failure Risk
We explore the factors associated with historical IPO failures by developing an IPO failure prediction model that includes account information as well as proxies for the role of information intermediaries and other IPO deal-related characteristics. We document statistically significant differences in failure models applicable to nontech versus high tech IPOs, and these structural differences are largely driven by accounting-based proxies for firms' investments in intangible assets, operating performance, and financial leverage. We also develop parsimonious, predominantly accounting-based, strictly outof-sample (i.e., no hindsight) IPO failure forecasting models for each of the two sectors. We find that our forecasts are negatively associated with one-year post-IPO abnormal returns. A pseudo-hedge strategy of going short (long) in high (low) failure risk portfolios yields returns of economically significant magnitudes over the one-year horizon, and is robust to alternative returns methodologies. Further results suggest that IPO long-run returns anomalies may persist, but they take different forms for high-tech and nontech IPOs.
Journal Article
Incidence and short-term outcomes of Kawasaki disease
Objective
Kawasaki disease (KD) is a childhood vasculitis with conflicting reported North American trends in incidence and patient characteristics. Objectives: (1) determine KD incidence between 1995 and 2017; (2) compare patient characteristics by era and age group; (3) determine complication and cardiovascular follow-up rates.
Methods
We used population-based health administrative data to identify children (0–18 yr) hospitalized with KD in Ontario, Canada between 1995 and 2017. We excluded children with prior KD diagnosis or incomplete records. We determined the annualized incidence and follow-up trends.
Results
KD was diagnosed in 4,346 children between 1995 and 2017. Annual KD incidence was 22.0 (<5 yr), 6.1 (5–9 yr), and 0.6 (10–18 yr) per 100,000 children. KD incidence increased significantly for all age groups, including from 18.4 to 25.0 cases per 100,000 children <5 yr. Ninety-day mortality occurred in ≤5 children (≤0.1%). Coronary artery aneurysm (CAA) occurred in 106 children (2.4%, 95% confidence interval 2.0–2.9) during admission and 151 (3.5%, 95% confidence interval 3.0–4.1) during 11-year median follow-up. Children 10–18 yr had longer hospitalizations (4.3 vs. 3.5 days,
p
= 0.003) and more CAA (7.4% vs. 3.4%,
p
= 0.007). By 1-year post-diagnosis, 3970 (91.3%) and 2576 (59.3%) children had echocardiography and cardiology follow-up, respectively.
Conclusions
KD incidence is increasing in Ontario, with greater healthcare utilization from hospitalizations and subsequent follow-up.
Impact
4346 children were hospitalized for Kawasaki disease over 22 years in Ontario, and Kawasaki disease incidence increased significantly for all age groups, males and females.
Older children (10–18 years) had longer hospital length of stay, more PICU admissions and more frequent coronary artery aneurysms.
Nearly all children with Kawasaki disease had follow-up echocardiography within 1 year.
Journal Article