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"Desai, Hardik Dineshbhai"
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National-level and state-level prevalence of overweight and obesity among children, adolescents, and adults in the USA, 1990–2021, and forecasts up to 2050
2024
Over the past several decades, the overweight and obesity epidemic in the USA has resulted in a significant health and economic burden. Understanding current trends and future trajectories at both national and state levels is crucial for assessing the success of existing interventions and informing future health policy changes. We estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity from 1990 to 2021 with forecasts to 2050 for children and adolescents (aged 5–24 years) and adults (aged ≥25 years) at the national level. Additionally, we derived state-specific estimates and projections for older adolescents (aged 15–24 years) and adults for all 50 states and Washington, DC.
In this analysis, self-reported and measured anthropometric data were extracted from 134 unique sources, which included all major national surveillance survey data. Adjustments were made to correct for self-reporting bias. For individuals older than 18 years, overweight was defined as having a BMI of 25 kg/m2 to less than 30 kg/m2 and obesity was defined as a BMI of 30 kg/m2 or higher, and for individuals younger than 18 years definitions were based on International Obesity Task Force criteria. Historical trends of overweight and obesity prevalence from 1990 to 2021 were estimated using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. A generalised ensemble modelling approach was then used to derive projected estimates up to 2050, assuming continuation of past trends and patterns. All estimates were calculated by age and sex at the national level, with estimates for older adolescents (aged 15–24 years) and adults aged (≥25 years) also calculated for 50 states and Washington, DC. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of the posterior distributions of the respective estimates.
In 2021, an estimated 15·1 million (95% UI 13·5–16·8) children and young adolescents (aged 5–14 years), 21·4 million (20·2–22·6) older adolescents (aged 15–24 years), and 172 million (169–174) adults (aged ≥25 years) had overweight or obesity in the USA. Texas had the highest age-standardised prevalence of overweight or obesity for male adolescents (aged 15–24 years), at 52·4% (47·4–57·6), whereas Mississippi had the highest for female adolescents (aged 15–24 years), at 63·0% (57·0–68·5). Among adults, the prevalence of overweight or obesity was highest in North Dakota for males, estimated at 80·6% (78·5–82·6), and in Mississippi for females at 79·9% (77·8–81·8). The prevalence of obesity has outpaced the increase in overweight over time, especially among adolescents. Between 1990 and 2021, the percentage change in the age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased by 158·4% (123·9–197·4) among male adolescents and 185·9% (139·4–237·1) among female adolescents (15–24 years). For adults, the percentage change in prevalence of obesity was 123·6% (112·4–136·4) in males and 99·9% (88·8–111·1) in females. Forecast results suggest that if past trends and patterns continue, an additional 3·33 million children and young adolescents (aged 5–14 years), 3·41 million older adolescents (aged 15–24 years), and 41·4 million adults (aged ≥25 years) will have overweight or obesity by 2050. By 2050, the total number of children and adolescents with overweight and obesity will reach 43·1 million (37·2–47·4) and the total number of adults with overweight and obesity will reach 213 million (202–221). In 2050, in most states, a projected one in three adolescents (aged 15–24 years) and two in three adults (≥25 years) will have obesity. Although southern states, such as Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Kentucky, are forecast to continue to have a high prevalence of obesity, the highest percentage changes from 2021 are projected in states such as Utah for adolescents and Colorado for adults.
Existing policies have failed to address overweight and obesity. Without major reform, the forecasted trends will be devastating at the individual and population level, and the associated disease burden and economic costs will continue to escalate. Stronger governance is needed to support and implement a multifaceted whole-system approach to disrupt the structural drivers of overweight and obesity at both national and local levels. Although clinical innovations should be leveraged to treat and manage existing obesity equitably, population-level prevention remains central to any intervention strategies, particularly for children and adolescents.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Journal Article
TWO DECADES OF INCREASING IBD MORTALITY LINKED TO PSYCHIATRIC COMORBIDITIES IN THE UNITED STATES
by
Kamani, Yashkumar Girdharlal
,
Desai, Hardik Dineshbhai
,
Nelakuditi, Harsha Sai
in
Inflammatory bowel disease
,
Mortality
,
Trends
2026
BACKGROUND Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), encompassing Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis, is increasingly recognized as a systemic illness with psychiatric comorbidities that may affect disease course and outcomes. However, national mortality trends where mental and behavioral disorders (MBD) contribute to IBD deaths remain poorly characterized. METHODS We analyzed U.S. mortality data from the CDC WONDER Multiple Cause of Death database (1999–2020). Deaths were included if IBD was the underlying cause and an MBD diagnosis was listed as a contributing cause. Annual age-standardized mortality rates (per 100,000 population) were calculated, and temporal trends were examined using log-linear regression to estimate annual percent change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Subgroup analyses were performed by census region, 2013 urbanization, 10-year age groups, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. RESULTS From 1999–2020, 2,051 deaths were attributed to IBD with MBD as a contributing cause. The crude mortality rate rose from 0.017 per 100,000 in 1999 to 0.045 per 100,000 in 2020, reflecting a significant overall increase (APC +4.43%, 95% CI 3.52–5.35; p < 0.001). Increases were observed across all census regions, highest in the South (+5.54%) and Midwest (+4.65%). By urbanization, the steepest rise occurred in medium metro areas (+5.45%). Age-specific APCs were positive across all groups, peaking among 25–34 years (+7.35%), 35–44 years (+6.80%), and 45–54 years (+6.57%), with smaller increases in older adults (≥85 years: +1.51%). By sex, mortality rose significantly in males (+5.66%) and females (+3.88%). Racially, White individuals (+4.45%) and non-Hispanic populations (+4.77%) showed significant increases; other categories were suppressed due to small counts. CONCLUSION Mortality in which IBD was the underlying cause and MBD a contributing cause more than doubled in rate over two decades in the U.S. The steepest increases occurred among younger adults, males, and residents of the South and medium metro areas. These findings underscore the importance of integrating psychiatric evaluation and management into IBD care and highlight the need for targeted interventions to address high-risk populations.
Journal Article
NATIONAL TRENDS AND DISPARITIES IN INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE MORTALITY IN THE UNITED STATES, 1999-2020
by
Kamani, Yashkumar Girdharlal
,
Desai, Hardik Dineshbhai
,
Nelakuditi, Harsha Sai
in
Crohn's disease
,
Inflammatory bowel disease
,
Mortality
2026
BACKGROUND Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), comprising ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease, remains a significant public health concern in the United States. While therapeutic advances have improved disease management, long-term mortality patterns remain incompletely characterized. METHODS We analyzed national mortality data from the CDC WONDER database (1999–2020). Deaths with IBD as the underlying cause were identified using ICD-10 codes Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis. We calculated crude mortality rates per 100,000 population from deaths and population denominators, and estimated temporal trends using log-linear regression to obtain annual percent change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Subgroup analyses were performed by census region, 2013 urbanization, ten-year age groups, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. Result From 1999–2020, there were 20,376 IBD deaths nationally. The crude mortality rate increased from 0.286 per 100,000 in 1999 to 0.340 per 100,000 in 2020, corresponding to a significant overall APC of + 0.45% (95% CI 0.14–0.76; p = 0.01). By region, mortality rose in the West (+1.19%, 0.61–1.77; p < 0.001) and South (+0.41%, 0.06–0.77; p = 0.03), was borderline in the Midwest (+0.41%, 0.01–0.81; p = 0.06), and stable in the Northeast (–0.07%, –0.62 to 0.48; p = 0.80). By 2013 urbanization, the steepest rise occurred in medium metro areas (+1.06%, 0.55–1.58; p < 0.001); micropolitan (+0.82%, 0.02–1.62; p = 0.06) was borderline, while other categories were not significant. Age-specific patterns showed significant declines among 75–84 years (–1.18%, –1.58 to –0.77; p < 0.001) and ≥85 years (–1.05%, –1.50 to –0.60; p < 0.001), with non-significant changes in younger groups. By sex, mortality increased in males (+0.97%, 0.61–1.33; p < 0.001) but not females (+0.07%, –0.36 to 0.51; p = 0.75). By race, significant rises were observed in Black (+1.28%, 0.68–1.88; p < 0.001) and White (+0.56%, 0.24–0.89; p < 0.001) populations, while Asian/Pacific Islander (–2.26%, –10.53 to 6.78; p = 0.65) was not significant; by ethnicity, non-Hispanic (+0.74%, 0.40–1.07; p < 0.001) increased, whereas Hispanic (+0.63%, –0.40 to 1.67; p = 0.25) did not. CONCLUSION Overall, IBD mortality rose modestly over two decades, with higher increases among men, Black and White populations, and residents of the South, West, and medium metro areas, in contrast to declines among the oldest adults. These findings highlight persistent demographic and geographic disparities and support targeted strategies to improve equitable access to effective therapies and comprehensive care.
Journal Article
TRENDS OF INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE BURDEN IN THE UNITED STATES (1990-2019), PROJECTIONS OF DEATHS TO 2040: INSIGHTS FROM THE 2019 GLOBAL BURDEN OF DISEASE STUDY
by
Roy, Vivek
,
Desai, Hardik Dineshbhai
,
Patel, Krina Manojbhai
in
Inflammatory bowel disease
,
Mortality
2024
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) ranks as the 9th primary cause of deaths and 7th for disabilities among all digestive diseases, affecting over 3 million Americans with a continuous upsurge.
METHOD
Utilizing the Global Burden of Disease methodology, we evaluated the prevalence, incidence, mortality, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) of IBD from 1990 to 2019 in the U.S. based on age, sex, and year via a standardized statistical model. Furthermore, we forecasted deaths and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) up to 2040 through a regression framework.
RESULTS
IBD prevalence showed a decline from 982,981 (95%UI: 846,832-1,129,782) in 1990 to 762,889 (712,356-813,653) in 2019. From 1990-2019, the total annual incidence reduced by 12% (4-18), while deaths surged by 172% (81-199), and DALYs increased by 16% (2-34) (Figure 1). The Age-Standardized Rate (ASR) for mortality rose from 0.62 (0.60-0.82) per 100,000 cases in 1990 to 1.02 (0.8-1.11) in 2019. In raw counts, Nevada saw the most significant rise in incidence (87%), deaths (486%), and DALYs (174%) from 1990-2019. Based on ASR, West Virginia and Kentucky led in mortality increases with 87% and 83% respectively (Figure 2). In 2019, the age group 80-84 reported the highest deaths (848), while ages 25-29 saw the most significant incidence (8429), and ages 60-64 the highest DALYs (20933). Comparing genders, females had a steeper increase in DALYs (17% vs. 13% for males), whereas males saw a higher rise in deaths (181% vs. 167% for females) between 1990-2019. By 2040, IBD-related age-standardized mortality rates are predicted to climb by 0.9 per 100,000.
CONCLUSION
In 2019, IBD was responsible for 4.56% of all digestive disease deaths. Highlighting a comprehensive challenge for the U.S. healthcare, IBD's impact is not just clinical or economic but also profoundly psychosocial. Emphasizing early detection, cutting-edge treatments, and comprehensive patient support is crucial to lessen the severe implications of IBD in the U.S.
Journal Article
IDDF2025-ABS-0348 Digestive disease burden in women across 204 countries (1990–2021): rising trends and a projected surge in mortality by 2050 – a global call to action
by
Rayarakula, Nikhil
,
Patel, Sagar
,
Vaghani, Dhwani
in
Age composition
,
Cirrhosis
,
Digestive system diseases
2025
BackgroundDigestive diseases (DD) disproportionately affect women worldwide, driven by unique biological factors, hormonal influences, and deep-rooted gender disparities in healthcare. From gallbladder disease and autoimmune liver disorders to irritable bowel syndrome, these conditions often go underdiagnosed and undertreated especially in low-resource settings—silently eroding women’s health and quality of life.MethodsWe analyzed the incidence, prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) due to DD among women across 204 countries from 1990–2021, stratified by age, sex, year, and location utilizing global burden of disease study. Future mortality was projected to 2050 using ARIMA modelling (IDDF2025-ABS-0348 figure 1. Global annual percentage of change in age-standardized incidence rate per 100–000 due to digestive disease from 1990–2021, IDDF2025-ABS-0348 figure 2. Global annual percentage of change in age-standardized YLDs rate per 100–000 due to digestive disease from 1990–2021, IDDF2025-ABS-0348 figure 3. Global annual percentage of change in age standardized-YLLs rate per 100–000 due to digestive disease from 1990–2021, IDDF2025-ABS-0348 figure 4. Global burden and trend of digestive disease in 204 countries from 1990–2021).Abstract IDDF2025-ABS-0348 Figure 1Global annual percentage of change in age-standardized incidence rate per 100–000 due to digestive disease from 1990–2021[Figure omitted. See PDF]Abstract IDDF2025-ABS-0348 Figure 2Global annual percentage of change in age-standardized YLDs rate per 100–000 due to digestive disease from 1990–2021[Figure omitted. See PDF]Abstract IDDF2025-ABS-0348 Figure 3Global annual percentage of change in age standardized-YLLs rate per 100–000 due to digestive disease from 1990–2021[Figure omitted. See PDF]Abstract IDDF2025-ABS-0348 Figure 4Global burden and trend of digestive disease in 204 countries from 1990–2021[Figure omitted. See PDF]Abstract IDDF2025-ABS-0348 Figure 5Age-wise distribution of digestive disease burden in women in 204 countries in 2021[Figure omitted. See PDF]Abstract IDDF2025-ABS-0348 Figure 6DALYs rank by digestive disease burden age-standardized DALYs rate in 2021[Figure omitted. See PDF]ResultsFrom 1990–2021, the total percentage change (TPC) in prevalence increased by 72% (95% UI: 70%–75%), deaths by 35% (15%–62%), DALYs by 22% (8%–39%), and YLDs by 62% (58%–67%). The highest TPC incidence was observed in low-SDI regions, rising by 155%. Regionally, deaths increased most in Latin America and the Caribbean (93%), followed by Sub-Saharan Africa (76%) and Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia (62%). By age, the greatest increase in incidence rate occurred among women aged 20–54 years (20%), followed by those aged 55+ (11%) and under 20 (4%). In 2021, cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases accounted for 47.3% of all DD-related deaths, followed by upper DD (12.2%) and paralytic ileus/intestinal obstruction (11.1%). By 2050, DD-related deaths are projected to rise to 1.8 million (95% UI: 1.5–2.1 million) (IDDF2025-ABS-0348 figure 5. Age-wise distribution of digestive disease burden in women in 204 countries in 2021, IDDF2025-ABS-0348 figure 6. DALYs rank by digestive disease burden age-standardized DALYs rate in 2021).ConclusionsDD represents a rapidly escalating and often overlooked threat to women’s health worldwide, with the burden rising sharply over the past three decades—notably in low-SDI regions and among women in their prime working years. If this trajectory continues unchecked, deaths are expected to surge by 2050, deepening existing global health disparities. This silent epidemic is already claiming millions of lives and disproportionately impacting vulnerable populations. Urgent, gender-responsive global action is no longer optional—it is essential to halt this trend, advance health equity, and protect the well-being and future of women across the world.
Journal Article
IDDF2025-ABS-0337 A regional challenge: escalating burden and risk drivers of gastrointestinal cancers in SEA, EA, and Oceania from 1990–2021
by
Rayarakula, Nikhil
,
Patel, Sagar
,
Vaghani, Dhwani
in
Adenomatous polyposis coli
,
Age composition
,
Aging
2025
BackgroundGastrointestinal (GI) cancers are a major and rising health burden across Southeast Asia (SEA), East Asia (EA), and Oceania, driven by aging populations, urbanization, and lifestyle changes. While infection-related cancers like liver and stomach remain prevalent, there is a growing shift toward colorectal and pancreatic cancers linked to diet, obesity, and inactivity.MethodsWe assessed both fatal and non-fatal health outcomes associated with six GI-cancers and their attributable behavioral and metabolic risk factors, stratified by age, sex, year, and location across SEA, EA and Oceania from 1990–2021. To project mortality trends through 2050, we employed time series analysis techniques, such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models.ResultsFrom 1990–2021, GI cancer prevalence in SEA, EA and Oceania increased from 1.99 million (95% UI:1.69–2.29) to 6.71 million (95%UI:5.49–8.02), deaths from 964,679 (95%UI:815,893–1,117,125) to 1,605,965 (95%UI:1,313,321–1,930,479), and DALYs from 28.35 million (95% UI: 23.76–32.80) to 40.14-million (95% UI: 32.73–48.72) (IDDF2025-ABS-0337 figure 1. Global Burden and Trend of GI Cancer in SEA, EA and Oceania from 1990–2021). The highest APC in ASIR for colorectal cancer (CRC) was in Mauritius (2.42%). Esophageal cancer (EC) increased most in the Northern Mariana Islands (2.06%), liver cancer (LC) in Guam (1.94%), gallbladder cancer (GBC) in Vietnam (0.69%), and pancreatic cancer (PC) in Taiwan (1.76%) (IDDF2025-ABS-0337 figure 2. Sex Wise Distribution of GI Cancer in SEA, EA, And Oceania in 2021). In 2021, the GI cancer death rate was 23.2(95% UI: 18.8–28.7) per 100,000 for ages 20–54 and 265.9(95% UI: 217.1–318.2) for ages 55 and above (IDDF2025-ABS-0337 figure 3. Age-Sex wise distribution of GI Cancer in SEA, EA and Oceania in 1990 and 2021). In terms of attributable risk factors, 45.8% of EC deaths were linked to smoking, 14.15% of stomach cancer deaths to smoking, 18.66% of CRC deaths to low milk intake,14.11% of LC deaths to alcohol use,10.26% of GBC deaths to high-BMI, and 22.32% of PC deaths to high fasting plasma glucose (IDDF2025-ABS-0337 figure 4. GI Cancer Attributable to Risk Factors, Death Rank, A CRC, B: EC, IDDF2025-ABS-0337 figure 5. GI Cancer Attributable Risk Factors, Death Rank, A: Liver Cancer, B: Stomach Cancer, C: Pancreatic Cancer, D: Gall Bladder and Biliary Tract Cancer, IDDF2025-ABS-0337 figure 6. GI Cancer Death Projection (1990–2050), Reference, best- and worst-case scenario).Abstract IDDF2025-ABS-0337 Figure 1Global burden and trend of GI cancer in SEA, EA and Oceania from 1990–2021[Figure omitted. See PDF]Abstract IDDF2025-ABS-0337 Figure 2Sex wise distribution of GI Cancer in SEA, EA, and Oceania in 2021[Figure omitted. See PDF]Abstract IDDF2025-ABS-0337 Figure 3Age-sex wise distribution of GI Cancer in SEA, EA and Oceania in 1990 and 2021[Figure omitted. See PDF]Abstract IDDF2025-ABS-0337 Figure 4GI cancer attributable to risk factors, death rank, A CRC, B: EC[Figure omitted. See PDF]Abstract IDDF2025-ABS-0337 Figure 5GI cancer attributable risk factors, death rank, A: liver cancer, B: stomach cancer, C: pancreatic cancer, D: gall bladder and biliary tract cancer[Figure omitted. See PDF]Abstract IDDF2025-ABS-0337 Figure 6GI cancer death projection (1990–2050), reference, best- and worst-case scenario[Figure omitted. See PDF]ConclusionsThe sharp rise in gastrointestinal cancers across SEA, EA, and Oceania demands urgent, coordinated action—targeting modifiable risks, strengthening clinical systems, enhancing early screening, and empowering clinicians with timely diagnostics and public health with effective risk-reduction strategies to reverse trends and improve outcomes.
Journal Article
EVOLVING BURDEN OF INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE IN WOMEN FROM 1990-2019: GLOBAL, REGIONAL, NATIONAL VARIATIONS, AGE DYNAMICS, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL HEALTH
by
Patel, Sneh
,
Sojitra, Vani
,
Naradasu, Pranathi Royal
in
Age groups
,
Inflammatory bowel disease
,
Mortality
2024
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD), encompassing conditions such as Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, has been a growing concern globally. While its burden has been studied extensively, the specific impact on women, who face unique physiological and socio-cultural challenges, remains underexplored. Grasping the global, national, and regional implications of IBD in women across 204 countries and territories provides a comprehensive understanding to guide healthcare strategies and tailor patient management.
METHOD
Using data from the Global Burden of Disease tool, we estimated the prevalence, incidence, mortality, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) associated with IBD in women by age, year, and location from 1990 to 2019 across 204 countries and territories. Non-fatal health parameters, such as incidence and prevalence, were calculated using the DisMod-MR 2.1 tool. Fatal health outcomes were discerned using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) framework. This comprehensive approach allowed for a detailed, standardized, and comparative analysis of the IBD burden on women at global, national, and regional levels, considering the variations by age and over time.
RESULTS
From 1990 to 2019, there was a notable rise in the annual percentage change (APC) of IBD metrics in women, with prevalence increasing by 43% (95%UI: 39-47), deaths by 73% (48-116), DALYs by 27% (11-55), and incidence by 36% (31-40). However, when examining age-standardized rates, there was a decrease in incidence by 20%, death rates by 18%, and DALYs by 27% over the same period. Regionally, Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania saw the sharpest surge in incidence rates at 104%, trailed by the Middle socio-demographic index at 37% and North Africa and the Middle East at 26%. Mortality rates were most pronounced in the European Union with a 37% APC increase, followed by high-income countries at 22% and OECD countries at 20%. DALYs rates revealed the European Union leading with a 13% APC growth, while the Nordic Region saw a 4% increase. When dissected by age groups, those under 20 years exhibited the most significant rise in incidence rates at 7% per 100,000, closely followed by children under 5 at 5%.
CONCLUSIONS
The rising burden of IBD in women from 1990 to 2019, particularly in regions like Southeast Asia, East Asia, Oceania, and the European Union, underscores the pressing need for targeted healthcare strategies and interventions. The distinct variations observed across age groups, especially among the younger population, further highlight the importance of early detection and intervention. Given the significant socio-economic and health implications, it's imperative to prioritize women-centric IBD research and clinical care, ensuring that healthcare policies and practices are tailored to address these specific challenges.
Age-standardized Mortality rate (per 100,000 person years), Female, due to IBD in Global Burden of Disease Super region, from 1990-2019.
Age-wise distribution of incidence (per 100,000) Inflammatory Bowel Disease, Global, Female.
Journal Article
EVOLVING LANDSCAPE OF INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE IN G20 NATIONS (1990-2019): A COMPREHENSIVE GLOBAL ASSESSMENT
by
Desai, Hardik Dineshbhai
,
Sajeev, Krishna
,
Patel, Krina Manojbhai
in
Females
,
Inflammatory bowel disease
,
Mortality
2024
Abstract
BACKGROUND
As pivotal players in the global economy, the G20 countries not only lead in economic dynamics but also in health challenges. Recent data reveals an escalating burden of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) in these nations. Understanding this trend is crucial to frame healthcare strategies and ensure the well-being of a significant portion of the global population.
METHOD
We employed data on IBD prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs for G20 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. Using standardized statistical techniques, we analyzed by age, sex, year and location across G20 countries, estimating incidence and prevalence with the DisMod-MR 2.1 tool and mortality through the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm).
RESULTS
From 1990 to 2019, IBD prevalence figures in the G20 nations escalated from 2,999,730 (95%UI: 2,625,581-3,416,963) to 4,254,467 (3,809,445-4,751,041), marking a 42% (38-46) surge in the Annual Percentage Change (APC). Meanwhile, the incidence rose by 30% (26-35), mortality by 72% (49-97), and DALYs by 27% (15-43). Among these nations, China witnessed a striking 314% increase in incidence, closely followed by South Korea at 288%. Death rates were most pronounced in European Union members, with Portugal at the helm (441%), trailed by Italy (433%) and Germany (418%). Germany also led in DALYs growth with a 289% APC. Examining Age-standardized mortality rates, Germany again topped the list with a 244% increase, shadowed by Italy (186%) and the United States (147%). Over the past three decades, older populations demonstrated a rising IBD burden. In gender comparisons, males experienced a more significant incidence increase (32% vs. females at 28%) and DALYs (30% vs. females at 24%). Conversely, females had a steeper death rate growth, 77% as opposed to males at 67%.
CONCLUSION
In 2019, IBD was responsible for 2.02% of digestive disease-related deaths and 2.30% of associated disabilities in the G20 nations. The stark rise in IBD prevalence, especially in countries like China, South Korea, and European Union members, emphasizes a pressing need for targeted clinical approaches and proactive health policies to mitigate this escalating burden.
Age-standardized rate (per 100,000 person years) of Inflammatory Bowel Disease in G20 Countries, 2019. A: ASIR, B: ASMR, C:ASDALR.
Journal Article
Quantifying the Impact: Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease Attributable to Kidney Dysfunction in the United States Over last Three Decades
by
Varsadiya, Kush
,
dhruval, Patel
,
Desai, Hardik Dineshbhai
in
Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR)
,
Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease
,
Kidney Dysfunction (KD)
2024
Background: Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD) remains the primary cause of death and disability in the United States. Among various risk factors, the role of Kidney Dysfunction (KD) in exacerbating IHD has not been fully explored, particularly on a state-by-state basis. This study seeks to delineate the consistent burden of IHD attributable to KD throughout the U.S from 1990 to 2019.
Method: We estimated the deaths, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), and Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) by age, sex, year, and location across the U.S. These were quantified in absolute numbers and age-standardized rates (ASR) per 100,000 people.
Results: The study found significant increases in the annual percentage change (APC) from 2010-2019: deaths rose by 17% (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 14-20%), DALYs by 18% (15-22%), and YLDs by 21% (16-27%). State-specific increases in age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were highest in Vermont at 5%, followed by New Mexico at 3%. Conversely, the District of Columbia saw a significant decrease of 16%. Vermont also showed the largest rise in DALY rates at 7%, and Florida in YLD rates at 3%. The age group of 90-94 years exhibited the highest number of deaths, while the 75-79 age group showed the greatest DALYs in 2019. Men consistently bore a heavier burden than women, with significant differences in APC across deaths, DALYs, and YLDs from 2010-2019.
Conclusion: IHD due to KD accounted for 16.67% of all IHD deaths in 2019, with older adults and men experiencing a markedly increased burden. These findings underscore the need for integrated care approaches and strong health policies to effectively manage the interplay between these serious health conditions.
Journal Article
IDDF2024-ABS-0450 Evolving burden of pancreatic cancer and its trend in 204 countries and territories from 1990-2021: a benchmarking comparative and consistent analysis
by
Daid, Simranpreet
,
Abuhashem, Shadi
,
Desai, Hardik Dineshbhai
in
Age composition
,
Clinical Gastroenterology
,
COVID-19
2024
BackgroundPancreatic cancer (PC) poses a profound health challenge globally, standing as the sixth most deadly cancer type. This pioneering study evaluates the global impact of PC over the past three decades, including the initial two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, a period that notably strained the management of non-COVID illnesses, especially cancers.MethodsUtilizing the Global Burden of Disease framework, we assessed the prevalence, incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) due to PC by age, sex, year, and location across 204 countries and territories. Non-fatal health outcomes were estimated using the DISMOD-MR 2.1 meta-regression tool, while fatal outcomes were analyzed using the cause of death ensemble model (CODEm).ResultsFrom 1990-2021, the total prevalence of PC rose from 172,808 (with a 95% uncertainty interval of 164,345-180,916) to 439,000 (401,738-471,000) (IDDF2024-ABS-0450 Figure 1. Age-standardized rate global trend, IDDF2024-ABS-0450 Figure 2. All age counts global trend). The total percentage change in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased by 9% (ranging from 1% to 17%), the mortality rate (ASMR) by 5% (3%-13%), and the DALYs rate (ASDALR) by 1% (from -8% to 10%) (IDDF2024-ABS-0450 Figure 3. Incidence rate ASIR global, IDDF2024-ABS-0450 Figure 4. Mortality rate ASMR global, IDDF2024-ABS-0450 Figure 5. Dalys rate ASDALR global). Regionally, the highest increases in ASMR were observed in Western Sub-Saharan Africa at 92% (61%-135%). Low-middle income countries under the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) witnessed the greatest increases in ASMR, at 57% (35%-89%). Among age groups, individuals under 70 years saw the most significant rises in ASMR, by 39% (25%-53%) and ASIR, by 42% (28%-56%) from 1990-2021 (IDDF2024-ABS-0450 Figure 6. Combined image age-wise distribution). Overall, males experienced a higher burden compared to females, with increases in ASIR (11% vs 7%), ASMR (7% vs 3%), and YLDs rate (11% vs 7%).Abstract IDDF2024-ABS-0450 Figure 1Age-standardized rate global trend.Abstract IDDF2024-ABS-0450 Figure 2All age counts global trend.Abstract IDDF2024-ABS-0450 Figure 3Incidence rate ASIR global.Abstract IDDF2024-ABS-0450 Figure 4Mortality rate ASMR global.Abstract IDDF2024-ABS-0450 Figure 5Dalys rate ASDALR global.Abstract IDDF2024-ABS-0450 Figure 6Combined image age-wise distribution.ConclusionsIn 2021, PC accounted for 5.11% of all cancer-related deaths. The pandemic highlighted a critical need for preparedness to manage the burden of such diseases effectively in future global health crises. From the perspectives of public health stakeholders, policymakers, and clinicians, this calls for a robust strategy to combat and mitigate the impact of pancreatic cancer, ensuring better management and outcomes even during challenging times.
Journal Article