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The accurate description of the complex genesis and evolution of ocean waves, as well as the associated kinematics and dynamics is indispensable for the design of offshore structures and the assessment of marine operations. In the majority of cases, the water-wave problem is reduced to potential flow theory on a somehow simplified level. However, the nonlinear terms in the surface boundary conditions and the fact that they must be fulfilled on the unknown water surface make the boundary value problem considerably complex. Hereby, the contrary objectives with respect to a very accurate representation of reality and numerical efficiency must be balanced wisely. This paper investigates the influence of characteristic sea state parameters on the accuracy of irregular wave field simulations of different complexity. For this purpose, the high-order spectral method was applied and the underlying Taylor series expansion was truncated at different orders so that numerical simulations of different complexity can be investigated. It is shown that, for specific characteristic sea state parameters, the boundary value problem can be significantly reduced while providing sufficient accuracy.

Algorithms for reconstructing and predicting nonlinear ocean wave fields from remote measurements are presented. Three types of synthetic observations are used to quantify the influence of remote measurement modulation mechanisms on the algorithms’ performance. First, the observations correspond to randomly distributed surface elevations. Then, they are related to a marine radar model – the second type takes the wave shadowing modulation into account whereas the third one also includes the tilt modulation. The observations are numerically generated based on unidirectional waves of various steepness values. Linear and weakly nonlinear prediction algorithms based on analytical models are considered, as well as a highly nonlinear algorithm relying on the high-order spectral (HOS) method. Reconstructing surfaces from shadowed observations is found to have an impact limited to the non-visible regions, while tilt modulation affects the reconstruction more generally due to the indirect, more complex extraction of wave information. It is shown that the accuracy of the surface reconstruction mainly depends on the correct modelling of the wave shape nonlinearities. Modelling the nonlinear correction of the dispersion relation, in particular the frequency-dependent wave phase effects in the case of irregular waves, substantially improves the prediction. The suitability of the algorithms for severe wave conditions in finite depth and using non-perfect observations is assessed through wave tank experiments. It shows that only the third-order HOS solution predicts the right amplitude and phase of an emerging extreme wave, emphasizing the relevance of the corresponding physical modelling.

Accurate real-time simulations and forecasting of phase-revolved ocean surface waves require nonlinear effects, both geometrical and kinematic, to be accurately represented. For this purpose, wave models based on a Lagrangian steepness expansion have proved particularly efficient, as compared to those based on Eulerian expansions, as they feature higher-order nonlinearities at a reduced numerical cost. However, while they can accurately model the instantaneous nonlinear wave shape, Lagrangian models developed to date cannot accurately predict the time evolution of even simple periodic waves. Here, we propose a novel and simple method to perform a Lagrangian expansion of surface waves to second order in wave steepness, based on the dynamical system relating particle locations and the Eulerian velocity field. We show that a simple redefinition of reference particles allows us to correct the time evolution of surface waves, through a modified nonlinear dispersion relationship. The resulting expressions of free surface particle locations can then be made numerically efficient by only retaining the most significant contributions to second-order terms, i.e. Stokes drift and mean vertical level. This results in a hybrid model, referred to as the ‘improved choppy wave model’ (ICWM) (with respect to Nouguier et al.’s J. Geophys. Res., vol. 114, 2009, p. C09012), whose performance is numerically assessed for long-crested waves, both periodic and irregular. To do so, ICWM results are compared to those of models based on a high-order spectral method and classical second-order Lagrangian expansions. For irregular waves, two generic types of narrow- and broad-banded wave spectra are considered, for which ICWM is shown to significantly improve wave forecast accuracy as compared to other Lagrangian models; hence, ICWM is well suited to providing accurate and efficient short-term ocean wave forecast (e.g. over a few peak periods). This aspect will be the object of future work.

Accurate short-term predictions of phase-resolved water wave conditions are crucial for decision-making in ocean engineering. However, the initialization of remote-sensing-based wave prediction models first requires a reconstruction of wave surfaces from sparse measurements like radar. Existing reconstruction methods either rely on computationally intensive optimization procedures or simplistic modelling assumptions that compromise the real-time capability or accuracy of the subsequent prediction process. We therefore address these issues by proposing a novel approach for phase-resolved wave surface reconstruction using neural networks based on the U-Net and Fourier neural operator (FNO) architectures. Our approach utilizes synthetic yet highly realistic training data on uniform one-dimensional grids, that is generated by the high-order spectral method for wave simulation and a geometric radar modelling approach. The investigation reveals that both models deliver accurate wave reconstruction results and show good generalization for different sea states when trained with spatio-temporal radar data containing multiple historic radar snapshots in each input. Notably, the FNO demonstrates superior performance in handling the data structure imposed by wave physics due to its global approach to learn the mapping between input and output in Fourier space.

We report photometric observations of Comet 103P/Hartley 2 during its 2023 apparition. Our campaign, conducted from August through December 2023, combined data from a global network of citizen astronomers coordinated by Unistellar and the Association Française d'Astronomie. Photometry was derived using an automated pipeline for eVscope observations in partnership with the SETI Institute and aperture photometry via AstroLab Stellar. We find that the comet's peak reduced brightness, measured at \\(G_{\\rm min} = 10.24 \\pm 0.47\\), continues a long-term fading trend since 1991. The decline in activity follows a per-apparition minimum magnitude increase of \\(\\Delta G_{\\rm min} = 0.59 \\pm 0.11\\) mag, corresponding to an approximately \\(42\\%\\) reduction in brightness each return. This trend implies that the comet's active fraction has declined by about an order of magnitude since 1991 and may indicate that Hartley 2 is no longer hyperactive by definition. The fading is consistent with progressive volatile depletion rather than orbital effects. These results offer insight into the evolutionary processes shaping Jupiter-family comets.

Ring systems have been discovered around several small bodies in the outer Solar System through stellar occultations. While such measurements provide key information about ring geometry and dynamical interactions, little is known about their origins, lifetimes, evolutionary pathways, or compositions. Here we report near-infrared observations with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) of a stellar occultation by (10199) Chariklo, a Centaur known to host a double-ring system. Our JWST measurements show that Chariklo's inner dense ring has become significantly more opaque than in previous observations, pointing to ongoing replenishment processes or dynamical restructuring. In contrast, the outer ring exhibits a much weaker near-infrared occultation signature than seen in earlier visible-light detections. This discrepancy may reflect material loss, suggesting that the outer ring could be transient, or may arise from wavelength-dependent opacity. These scenarios, which are not mutually exclusive, point to an unprecedented level of complexity in small-body ring systems, distinct from those observed around any other minor bodies in the Solar System.

We present results derived from the first multi-chord stellar occultation by the trans-Neptunian object (229762) 2007 UK\\(_{126}\\), observed on 2014 November 15. The event was observed by the Research and Education Collaborative Occultation Network (RECON) project and International Occultation Timing Association (IOTA) collaborators throughout the United States. Use of two different data analysis methods obtain a satisfactory fit to seven chords, yelding an elliptical fit to the chords with an equatorial radius of \\(R=338_{-10} ^{+15}\\) km and equivalent radius of \\(R_{eq}=319_{-7} ^{+14}\\) km. A circular fit also gives a radius of \\(R=324_{-23} ^{+30}\\) km. Assuming that the object is a Maclaurin spheroid with indeterminate aspect angle, and using two published absolute magnitudes for the body, we derive possible ranges for geometric albedo between \\(p_{V}=0.159_{-0.013} ^{+0.007}\\) and \\(p_{R}=0.189_{-0.015}^{+0.009}\\), and for the body oblateness between \\(\\epsilon=0.105_{-0.040} ^{+0.050}\\) and \\(\\epsilon=0.118_{-0.048} ^{+0.055}\\). For a nominal rotational period of 11.05 h, an upper limit for density of \\(\\rho=1740\\) kg~m\\(^{-3}\\) is estimated for the body.