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Mapping the relative risk of impact on nature by a human infrastructure at a landscape scale (“sensitivity mapping”) is an essential tool for minimising the future impact of new development or for prioritising mitigation of existing impacts. High-voltage power lines (“transmission lines”) are known to increase bird mortality by collision. Here we present a method to derive a high resolution map of relative risk of transmission line impacts across one entire country, Belgium, from existing bird distribution data. First, all the bird species observed in Belgium were systematically assessed using literature and casualty records to select those to be included in the sensitivity map. Species were selected on the basis of their intrinsic susceptibility to collision and the conservation relevance of avoiding additional mortality for that species in Belgium. Each of the selected species was included in one or several spatial layer constructed from existing data, emerging from citizen science bird monitoring schemes. The resulting 17 layers were then combined into one final sensitivity map, where a “risk score” estimates the relative collision risk across Belgium at a 1×1 km resolution. This risk score is relatively robust to the subtraction of any of the 17 layers. The map identifies areas where building new transmission lines would create high risk of collision and, if overlapped with existing power lines, helps to prioritise spans where mitigation measures should be placed. Wetlands and river valleys stand out as the most potentially dangerous areas for collision with transmission lines. This sensitivity map could be regularly updated with new bird data or adapted to other countries where similar bird data are available.

Sound decisions on control actions for established invasive alien species (IAS) require information on ecological as well as socio-economic impact of the species and of its management. Cost-benefit analysis provides part of this information, yet has received relatively little attention in the scientific literature on IAS. We apply a bio-economic model in a cost-benefit analysis framework to greater Canada goose , an IAS with documented social, economic and ecological impacts in Flanders (northern Belgium). We compared a business as usual (BAU) scenario which involved non-coordinated hunting and egg destruction with an enhanced scenario based on a continuation of these activities but supplemented with coordinated capture of moulting birds. To assess population growth under the BAU scenario we fitted a logistic growth model to the observed pre-moult capture population. Projected damage costs included water eutrophication and damage to cultivated grasslands and were calculated for all scenarios. Management costs of the moult captures were based on a representative average of the actual cost of planning and executing moult captures. Comparing the scenarios with different capture rates, different costs for eutrophication and various discount rates, showed avoided damage costs were in the range of 21.15 M€ to 45.82 M€ under the moult capture scenario. The lowest value for the avoided costs applied to the scenario where we lowered the capture rate by 10%. The highest value occurred in the scenario where we lowered the real discount rate from 4% to 2.5%. The reduction in damage costs always outweighed the additional management costs of moult captures. Therefore, additional coordinated moult captures could be applied to limit the negative economic impact of greater Canada goose at a regional scale. We further discuss the strengths and weaknesses of our approach and its potential application to other IAS.

Red Lists estimate the extinction risk of species at global or regional levels and are important instruments in conservation policies. Global Red List assessments are readily available via the IUCN website (https://www.iucnredlist.org) and are regularly updated by (taxonomic) experts. Regional Red Lists, however, are not always easy to find and often use local criteria to assess the local extinction risk of species. Here, we publish a database with the outcome of 38 Red List assessments in Flanders (northern Belgium) between 1994 and 2018. In total, the database contains 6,224 records of 5,039 unique taxa pertaining to 24 different taxonomic groups. Using a quality control procedure, we evaluated the criteria used, the number of records, the temporal and spatial distribution of the data and the up-to-dateness of the Red Lists. This way, nineteen Red Lists were approved as being of sufficient high quality (i.e. validated) and nineteen others were not. Once validated, Red Lists are approved by the regional Minister of Environment and published in the Belgian Official Gazette acquiring legal status. For the validated Red Lists, we additionally compiled (life-history) traits that are applicable to a wide variety of species groups (taxonomic kingdom, environment, biotope, nutrient level, dispersal capacity, lifespan and cuddliness). The publication of this dataset allows comparison of Red List statuses with other European regions and countries and permits analyses about how certain (life-history) traits can explain the Red List status of species. The dataset will be regularly updated by adding new Red List (re)assessments and/or additional (life-history) traits.

Aim Many species are showing distribution shifts in response to environmental change. We explored (a) the effects of inter-annual variation in winter weather conditions on non-breeding distributional abundance of waterbirds exploiting different habitats (deep-water, shallow water, farmland) and (b) the long-term shift in the population centroid of these species and investigate its link to changes in weather conditions. Location Europe. Methods We fitted generalized additive mixed Models to a large-scale, 24-year dataset (1990-2013) describing the winter distributional abundance of 25 waterbird species. We calculated the annual and long-term (3-year periods) population centroid of each species and used the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index to explain the inter-annual and long-term shifts in their location. Results (a) Year-to-year southwestwards shifts in the population centroids of deep- and shallow-water species were linked to negative NAO values. Shallow-water species shifted northeastwards associated with positive NAO values and the distance shifted increased with increasing NAO. Deep-water species shifted northeastwards up to zero NAO indices, but showed no further increase at higher NAO values. (b) Deep-water species showed long-term northeastwards shifts in distributional abundance throughout the 1990s and the 2000s. Shallow-water species, on the other hand, shifted northeastwards during the 1990s and early 2000s, but southwestwards thereafter. There were no significant links between the NAO and year-to-year movements or long-term shifts in farmland species' population centroid. Main Conclusions We provide evidence for a link between both year-to-year and long-term changes in waterbird winter distributional abundances at large geographical scales to short- and long-term changes in winter weather conditions. We also show that species using shallow water, deep-water and farmland habitats responded differently, especially at high NAO values. As well as important ecological implications, these findings contribute to the development of future conservation measures for these species under current and future climate change.

Aim Species are responding to climate change by changing their distributions, creating debate about the effectiveness of existing networks of protected areas. As a contribution to this debate, we assess whether regional winter abundances and distribution of the Smew Mergellus albellus, a migratory waterbird species listed on Annex I (EU Birds Directive) that overwinters exclusively in European wetlands, changed during 1990–2011, the role of global warming in driving distributional changes and the effectiveness of the network of Special Protection Areas (SPAs, EU Birds Directive) in the context of climate change. Location Europe. Methods We used site-specific counts (6,883 sites) from 16 countries covering the entire flyway to estimate annual abundance indices and trends at country, region (north-eastern, central and south-western) and flyway scales, inside and outside SPAs. We fitted autoregressive models to assess the effect of winter temperature on the annual abundance indices whilst accounting for autocorrelation. Results The Smew wintering distribution shifted north-eastwards in Europe in accordance with the predictions of global warming, with increasing numbers in the north-eastern region and declines in the central region. Trends in wintering numbers were more positive in SPAs on the north-eastern and south-western part of the flyway. However, a large proportion of the wintering population remains unprotected in north-eastern areas outside of the existing SPA network. Main conclusions SPAs accommodated climate-driven abundance changes in the north-eastern region of the wintering distribution by supporting increasing numbers of Smew in traditional and newly colonized areas. However, we highlight gaps in the current network, suggesting that urgent policy responses are needed. Given rapid changes in species distributions, we urge regular national and international assessments of the adequacy of the EU Natura 2000 network to ensure coherence in site-safeguard networks for this and other species.

 Mapping the relative risk of impact on nature by a human infrastructure at a landscape scale (\"sensitivity mapping\") is an essential tool for minimising the future impact of new development or for prioritising mitigation of existing impacts. High-voltage power lines (\"transmission lines\") are known to increase bird mortality by collision. Here we present a method to derive a high resolution map of relative risk of transmission line impacts across one entire country, Belgium, from existing bird distribution data. First, all the bird species observed in Belgium were systematically assessed using literature and casualty records to select those to be included in the sensitivity map. Species were selected on the basis of their intrinsic susceptibility to collision and the conservation relevance of avoiding additional mortality for that species in Belgium. Each of the selected species was included in one or several spatial layer constructed from existing data, emerging from citizen science bird monitoring schemes. The resulting 17 layers were then combined into one final sensitivity map, where a \"risk score\" estimates the relative collision risk across Belgium at a 1×1 km resolution. This risk score is relatively robust to the subtraction of any of the 17 layers. The map identifies areas where building new transmission lines would create high risk of collision and, if overlapped with existing power lines, helps to prioritise spans where mitigation measures should be placed. Wetlands and river valleys stand out as the most potentially dangerous areas for collision with transmission lines. This sensitivity map could be regularly updated with new bird data or adapted to other countries where similar bird data are available. Keywords: Belgium, bird, mitigation, sensitivity mapping, strategic planning, transmission lines, waterbird

This study explores the relation between sediment composition and intertidal macrobenthos populations in the Zwin nature reserve (Belgium and The Netherlands), a tidal lagoon that is included in the Ramsar list of wetlands of international importance and has been designated as Natura 2000 area, among others due to its function as wintering habitat for shorebirds that feed upon macrobenthic invertebrates. Species response models show highest biomass of these prey species in organically enriched cohesive sediments and a distinct decline in probability of occurrence for most species in coarse sediments. Further, the biomass of macrobenthos declined between 2003 and 2010 in the extensive low intertidal inlet channel concurrent with the coarsening of the sediment over time in this hydrodynamically stressed habitat. In contrast, macrobenthos biomass increased in a sheltered shallow intertidal habitat that acted as a catchment area for finer sediments, therefore facilitating the succession towards a higher elevated habitat with salt marsh vegetation establishment. Hence, spatio-temporal sediment dynamics decreased site quality for intertidal predators due to a reduction in feeding areas over time, and a change in physical sediment properties that alter the macrobenthos species occurrence and population biomass. This study thus illustrates that sediment transport dynamics may affect the functioning of coastal shallow soft-sediment habitats, like coastal lagoons. The presented macrobenthos species response models provide a tool to assist in management actions that enable the conservation of cohesive low intertidal habitats that provide a high food supply to shorebirds, fish and macrocrustaceans.

We analysed annual changes in abundance of EurasianWigeon (Anas penelope) derived frommid-winter InternationalWaterbird Census data throughout its northwest European flyway since 1988 using log-linear Poisson regressionmodelling. Increases in abundance in the north and east of the wintering range (Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland), stable numbers in the central range (Belgium,Netherlands,UKand France) and declining abundance in the west and south of the wintering range (Spain and Ireland) suggest a shift in wintering distribution consistent with milder winters throughout the range. However, because over 75% of the population of over 1 million individuals winters in Belgium, the Netherlands, UK and France, there was no evidence for a major movement in the centre of gravity of the wintering distribution. Between-winter changes in overall flyway abundance were highly significantly positively correlated (P = 0.003) with reproductive success measured by age ratios in Danish hunter wing surveys and less strongly and inversely correlated (P = 0.05) with mean January temperatures in the centre of the wintering range, suggesting thatwinter severitymay also contribute to influence survival. However, adding winter severity to a model predicting population size based on annual reproductive success alone did not contribute tomore effectivelymodelling the observed changes in population size. Patterns in annual reproductive success seem therefore to largely explain the recent dynamics in population size of northwest European Wigeon. Summer NAO significantly and positively explained 27% of variance in annual breeding success. Other local factors such as eutrophication of breeding sites and changes in predation pressure undoubtedly contribute to changes in the annual production of young and differences in hunting pressure as well as winter severity affect annual survival rates. However, it seems likely that the observed flyway population trend since 1988 has been mostly influenced by climate effects on the breeding grounds affecting reproductive success and marginally on the winter quarters affecting survival. We urge improved demographic monitoring of the population to better assess annual survival and reproductive success.We also recommend development of an adaptive management framework to remove uncertainties in our knowledge of Wigeon population dynamics as information is forthcoming to better informmanagement, especially to attempt to harmonise the harvest with annual changes in demography to ensure sustainable exploitation of this important quarry species now and in the future.

We analysed annual changes in abundance of Eurasian Wigeon (Anas penelope) derived from mid-winter International Waterbird Census data throughout its northwest European flyway since 1988 using log-linear Poisson regression modelling. Increases in abundance in the north and east of the wintering range (Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland), stable numbers in the central range (Belgium, Netherlands, UK and France) and declining abundance in the west and south of the wintering range (Spain and Ireland) suggest a shift in wintering distribution consistent with milder winters throughout the range. However, because over 75% of the population of over 1 million individuals winters in Belgium, the Netherlands, UK and France, there was no evidence for a major movement in the centre of gravity of the wintering distribution. Between-winter changes in overall flyway abundance were highly significantly positively correlated (P =0.003) with reproductive success measured by age ratios in Danish hunter wing surveys and less strongly and inversely correlated (P = 0.05) with mean January temperatures in the centre of the wintering range, suggesting that winter severity may also contribute to influence survival. However, adding winter severity to a model predicting population size based on annual reproductive success alone did not contribute to more effectively modelling the observed changes in population size. Patterns in annual reproductive success seem therefore to largely explain the recent dynamics in population size of northwest European Wigeon. Summer NAO significantly and positively explained 27% of variance in annual breeding success. Other local factors such as eutrophication of breeding sites and changes in predation pressure undoubtedly contribute to changes in the annual production of young and differences in hunting pressure as well as winter severity affect annual survival rates. However, it seems likely that the observed flyway population trend since 1988 has been mostly influenced by climate effects on the breeding grounds affecting reproductive success and marginally on the winter quarters affecting survival. We urge improved demographic monitoring of the population to better assess annual survival and reproductive success. We also recommend development of an adaptive management framework to remove uncertainties in our knowledge of Wigeon population dynamics as information is forthcoming to better inform management, especially to attempt to harmonise the harvest with annual changes in demography to ensure sustainable exploitation of this important quarry species now and in the future. Selvitimme haapanan (Anas penelope) vuosittaisia runsausvaihteluita Lansi-Euroopan talvehtimisalueilla vuodesta 1988 lahtien hyodyntamalla kansainvalisia keskitalven vesilintulaskentatietoja (International Waterbird Census) ja niihin sovitettuja log-lineaarisia Poisson regressiomalleja. Talvikanta kasvoi alueen pohjois- ja itaosissa (Norja, Ruotsi, Tanska, Saksa ja Sveitsi), pysyi vakaana keskiosissa (Belgia, Hollanti, Iso-Britannia ja Ranska) seka taantui alueen etela- ja lansireunalla (Espanja ja Irlanti). Tama viittaa siihen, lajin talvirunsaus on siirtymassa kohti koillista osuen yhteen leudontuneiden talvien kanssa. Valtaosa kannasta (75 %, yli miljoona yksiloa) talvehtii kuitenkin edelleen vakaan kannan alueella Belgiassa, Hollannissa, Iso-Britanniassaja Ranskassa, minkatakia lajin talvehtimisalueen painopisteessa ei havaittu muutosta. Vuosittaiset koko alueen talvikannan vaihtelut olivat merkitsevasti positiivisesti yhteydessa edeltavan kesan poikastuottoon, joka mitattiin nuorten ja vanhojen lintujen suhteena tanskalaisessa metsastysaineistossa. Lisaksi vuosittaisella kannanmuutoksella oli suuntaa-antava positiivinen yhteys lajin keskeiselta talvialueelta mitatun tammi kuun keskilampotilan kanssa, mika viittaa siihen, etta kylmat talvet voivat vaikuttaa negatiivisesti lajin kannan kokoon. Naista kahdesta muuttujasta poikastuotto selitti kuitenkin voimakkaammin talvikannan vuosittaista vaihtelua. Kesainen laajaalainen NAO-ilmastoindeksi selitti merkitsevasti positiivisesti 27 % vuosittaisesta poikastuoton vaihtelusta. Poikastuottoon voi vaikuttaa myos paikalliset olosuhteet kuten rehevoityminen ja saalistuspaine pesimaalueilla. Metsastyspaineen seka talvi-ilmaston ankaruuden vaihtelulla on puolestaan todennakoisesti vaikutusta vuosittaiseen selviytyvyyteen. Vaikuttaa kuitenkin silta, etta vuodesta 1988 lahtien talvikannan vaihteluun on vaikuttanut etenkin pesimamenestys ja vahemmassa maarin talviaikainen selviytyvyys. Haapanakannan demografiselle seurannalle on tuloksiemme perusteella suurta tarvetta ja suosittelemme kehittamaan adaptiivista kannanhoitoa, jossa myos seurantatietojen epavarmuustekijat otetaan huomioon. Nailla toimenpiteilla pystymme tulevaisuudessa paremmin turvaamaan kestavan kannanverotuksen suhteessa kannanmuutokseen talla tarkealla riistalajilla.

The authors have analysed annual changes in abundance of EurasianWigeon derived from-mid-winter International Waterbird Census data throughout its northwest European flyway since 1988 using log-linear Poisson regressionmodelling. Increases in abundance in the north and east of the wintering range (Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland), stable numbers in the central range (Belgium,Netherlands,UK and France) and declining abundance in the west and south of the wintering range (Spain and Ireland) suggest a shift in wintering distribution consistent with milder winters throughout the range. However, because over 75% of the population of over 1 million individuals winters in Belgium, the Netherlands, UK and France, there was no evidence for a major movement in the centre of gravity of the wintering distribution. Between-winter changes in overall flyway abundance were highly significantly positively correlated with reproductive success measured by age ratios in Danish hunter wing surveys and less strongly and inversely correlated with mean January temperatures in the centre of the wintering range, suggesting thatwinter severitymay also contribute to influence survival.