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We explored the influence of climatic factors on diversity patterns of multiple taxa (lichens, bryophytes, and vascular plants) along a steep elevational gradient to predict communities’ dynamics under future climate change scenarios in Mediterranean regions. We analysed (1) species richness patterns in terms of heat-adapted, intermediate, and cold-adapted species; (2) pairwise beta-diversity patterns, also accounting for its two different components, species replacement and richness difference; (3) the influence of climatic variables on species functional traits. Species richness is influenced by different factors between three taxonomic groups, while beta diversity differs mainly between plants and cryptogams. Functional traits are influenced by different factors in each taxonomic group. On the basis of our observations, poikilohydric cryptogams could be more impacted by climate change than vascular plants. However, contrasting species-climate and traits-climate relationships were also found between lichens and bryophytes suggesting that each group may be sensitive to different components of climate change. Our study supports the usefulness of a multi-taxon approach coupled with a species traits analysis to better unravel the response of terrestrial communities to climate change. This would be especially relevant for lichens and bryophytes, whose response to climate change is still poorly explored.

The Apuan Alps are one of the most peculiar mountain chain in the Mediterranean, being very close to the coastline and reaching an elevation of almost 2000 m. Based on published flora, we investigated the distribution of plant species richness along the whole elevational gradient of this chain considering: (i) all species, (ii) endemic versus alien species; and (iii) functional groups of species based on Raunkiær life forms (RLF). Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) were used to analyse richness patterns along the elevational gradient, and elevational richness models versus the area of the elevational belts were fitted to test the effect of surface area. Our results showed decreasing species richness with increasing elevation. In contrast, endemic species richness increased along the elevational gradient. Alien species were mainly distributed at low elevations, but this result should be taken with caution since we used historical data. Species life forms were not equally distributed along the elevation gradient: chamaephytes and hemicryptophytes were the richest groups at high elevations, while therophytes showed highest species richness at low elevations. Our findings suggest that in the Apuan Alps there is a major elevational gradient in species composition that could reflect plant evolutionary history. Furthermore, we highlight the key role of published floras as a relevant source of biodiversity data.

High-mountain ecosystems are spots of plant diversity in which species composition and traits depict a long evolutionary history of species adaptation to steep environmental gradients. We investigated the main trends in plant species composition and reproductive and dispersal traits (pollen vector, diaspore appendages, dispersal of diaspores and fruit type) in central Mediterranean summits in relation to environmental factors (altitude, aspect, debris cover and slope). Based on 114 plots, with floristic and environmental data collected in the year 2016 on alpine calcareous grasslands in the central Apennines, we explored how species composition varies in relation to environmental factors using CCA (canonical correspondence analysis). Then, we analyzed the relationships among species presence, the occurrence of reproductive and dispersal traits and environmental variables. We used for this analysis the fourth-corner model approach. Our results highlight a consistent response of floristic composition and of structural and ecological characteristics to environmental gradients, with elevation and debris cover being the most important ones. The environmental characteristics of the analyzed ecosystems (e.g., steep slopes and harsh environments) combined with the persistence of perennial plant species already present in each stand, the high precision of pollination and the prevalence of short-distance dissemination strategies should allow the calcareous endemic plant communities of the analyzed Mediterranean summits to be conserved at least for a mid-term period slowing down the expansion of the warm-adapted species, less adapted to the local environmental constrains.

Knowledge about seed germination ecology is necessary for development of protocols for in ex situ conservation and in situ restoration of rare species. Here we investigate the effect of temperature, light, GA3 and cold storage in the germination niche of Saxifraga italica (Saxifragaceae), and endemic species of Central Apennines (Italy). Several temperatures, both in dark and light conditions, and the effect of pre-chilling (60 days at 5°C) were investigated. Light was varied by changing photon flux, both in intensity and duration. The intensity of light was tested from 1.28 to 26.87 µmol (photon)·m⁻²·s⁻¹, and pre-treatment with light was carried out by exposing seeds for 1, 2, 4, 8, 24 and 48 h at the beginning of the germination test. Finally, the effects of GA₃ at two different concentrations. 250 ppm and 500 ppm, was tested. The results show that the species under study produce small non-dormant seeds germinating only with long-term light stimulation or with GA₃. The requirement for light could be substituted by gibberellins but not by pre-chilling, as this species germinating only when on the soil surface was exposed to light and without competition. Thus, in accordance with the species distribution and life strategies, the germination niche highlights that for this species light is a fundamental factor promoting germination.

To track future climate space, seed dispersal will be essential for plants, but dispersal ability is rarely measured or incorporated into species distribution models. Species distribution models (SDMs) can rank habitat suitability at a local scale, and they may be a valuable conservation planning tool for rare, patchily distributed species. Dispersal is essential for species to survive the threats of habitat destruction and climate change. Combining dispersal ability and habitat suitability at the landscape scale is important to understand and predict species spatial responses to environmental change. This study analyzed future species distributions based on habitat suitability and dispersal scenarios for 7 endangered and vulnerable taxa, using SDM and dispersal ability to predict the range of species distribution across central Italy in the near future 2050. Species distribution models (Ensembles of Small Models, ESMs) were carried out using 19 bioclimatic environmental variables downloaded from WorldClim 1.4. The study identified the most suitable area for this species in the central Apennines. The innovation of this study is the combination of SDMs with dispersal ability based on measured traits of local populations of rare species and subspecies. The main results show a combination of climate change with dispersal ability strongly affects the future potential distribution of the rare species. Thus, obtaining suitable and accessible areas in the near future possible is possible to identify the high suitable sites for the reinforcement of the natural population, ensuring habitat connectivity.

Remote sensing (RS) has been widely adopted as a tool to investigate several biotic and abiotic factors, directly and indirectly, related to biodiversity conservation. European grasslands are one of the most biodiverse habitats in Europe. Most of these habitats are subject to priority conservation measure, and several human-induced processes threaten them. The broad expansions of few dominant species are usually reported as drivers of biodiversity loss. In this context, using Sentinel-2 (S2) images, we investigate the distribution of one of the most spreading species in the Central Apennine: Brachypodium genuense. We performed a binary Random Forest (RF) classification of B. genuense using RS images and field-sampled presence/absence data. Then, we integrate the occurrences obtained from RS classification into species distribution models to identify the topographic drivers of B. genuense distribution in the study area. Lastly, the impact of B. genuense distribution in the Natura 2000 (N2k) habitats (Annex I of the European Habitat Directive) was assessed by overlay analysis. The RF classification process detected cover of B. genuense with an overall accuracy of 94.79%. The topographic species distribution model shows that the most relevant topographic variables that influence the distribution of B. genuense are slope, elevation, solar radiation, and topographic wet index (TWI) in order of importance. The overlay analysis shows that 74.04% of the B. genuense identified in the study area falls on the semi-natural dry grasslands. The study highlights the RS classification and the topographic species distribution model’s importance as an integrated workflow for mapping a broad-expansion species such as B. genuense. The coupled techniques presented in this work should apply to other plant communities with remotely recognizable characteristics for more effective management of N2k habitats.

Suitable climate and availability of habitats for roosting, foraging, and dispersing are critical for the long-term persistence of bat species. The giant noctule ( ) represents one of the lesser-known European bats, especially regarding the environmental factors which shape its distribution. We integrated climate-based ecological niche models with information about topography and rivers' network to model weighted suitability for in the western Palearctic. The weighted suitability map was then used to estimate connectivity among the distinct occurrence localities of , as well as from these latter towards European old-growth forests, under current conditions and different combinations of future timeframes (2030, 2050, 2070) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs 3.70 and 5.85). Current weighted suitability is highest in Andalusia, northern Iberia, southwestern France, peninsular Italy, coastal Balkans and Anatolia, with dispersed suitable patches elsewhere. A north-eastward shift of weighted suitability emerges in the considered future scenarios, especially under SSP 5.85. The major current ecological corridors for are predicted within a 'belt' connecting northern Spain and southwestern France, as well as in the Italian Alps. However, following changes in weighted suitability, connectivity would increase in central-eastern Europe in the future. The bioclimatic niche of the western populations does not overlap with those of the central and eastern ones, and it only overlaps with climatic conditions characterizing old-growth forests in western Europe. The outcomes of our analyses would help in designing specific conservation measures for the distinct groups of giant noctule populations, favoring the possibility of range expansion and movement towards forested habitats.

Cervellini, M., Di Musciano, M., Zannini, P., Fattorini, S., Jiménez-Alfaro, B., Agrillo, E., Attorre, F., Angelini, P., Beierkuhnlein, C., Casella, L., Field, R., Fischer, J.-C., Genovesi, P., Hoffmann, S., Irl, S.D.H., Nascimbene, J., Rocchini, D., Steinbauer, M., Vetaas, O.R., Chiarucci, A.

Forests will be critical to mitigate the effects of climate and global changes. Therefore, knowledge on the drivers of forest area changes are important. Although the drivers of deforestation are well known, drivers of afforestation are almost unexplored. Moreover, protected areas (PAs) effectively decrease deforestation, but other types of area‐based conservation measures exist. Among these, sacred natural sites (SNS) deliver positive conservation outcomes while making up an extensive “shadow network” of conservation. However, little is known on the capacity of SNS to regulate land‐use changes. Here, we explored the role of SNS and PAs as drivers of forest loss and forest gain in Italy between 1936 and 2018. We performed a descriptive analysis and modeled forest gain and forest loss by means of spatial binomial generalized linear models with residual autocovariates. The main drivers of forest area changes were geographical position and elevation, nonetheless SNS and PAs significantly decreased forest loss and increased forest gain. Although the negative relationship between SNS and forest loss is a desirable outcome, the positive relationship with forest gain is concerning because it could point to abandonment of cultural landscapes with consequent loss of open habitats. We suggest a legal recognition of SNS and an active ecological monitoring and planning to help maintain their positive role in biodiversity conservation. As a novel conservation planning approach, SNS can be used as stepping stones between PAs increasing connectivity and also to conserve small habitat patches threatened by human activities.

1. Effective biodiversity management and policymaking requires timely access to accurate and reliable scientific data on biodiversity status, trends and threats. However, current biodiversity monitoring processes are often time-consuming, complex and irreproducible. Moreover, the quality and types of biodiversity data are diverse, which challenges their integration and impedes effective monitoring. A major step to overcome such challenges would be the availability of standardized species occurrence data. However, challenges arise in aggregating and integrating these heterogeneous data with environmental and landscape data. 2. By creating standardized biodiversity data cubes and automated workflows for post-processing, we envision that (1) information from complex datasets will be available in a known format to efficiently communicate biodiversity variables to policymakers; (2) the adoption of repeatable Open Data workflows will make biodiversity data more accessible, efficient and cost-effective; and (3) cloud computing will make it easier to analyse large datasets, benefit from a broader range of models, share resources and work together on biodiversity projects. 3. This revolution in biodiversity monitoring will rely on community collaboration. By bridging the gap between policymakers' needs, bioinformation specialists' skills and data collectors' motivations, biodiversity monitoring can become a more inclusive and community-driven effort. As such, we advocate for the development of tools and workflows in close consultation with stakeholders to enhance the impact and use of biodiversity information. 4. Practical implication. The proposed approach faces challenges in maintaining software, data standards and addressing biodiversity data complexity. However, leveraging existing infrastructures like GBIF and Copernicus, and building on the knowledge from GEO and GEO BON offers a feasible path.