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Abstract Modern phylogeography aims at reconstructing the geographic movement of organisms based on their genomic sequences and spatial information. Phylogeographic approaches are often applied to pathogen sequences and therefore tend to neglect the possibility of recombination, which decouples the evolutionary and geographic histories of different parts of the genome. Genomic regions of recombining or reassorting pathogens often originate and evolve at different times and locations, which characterize their unique spatial histories. Measuring the extent of these differences requires new methods to compare geographic information on phylogenetic trees reconstructed from different parts of the genome. Here we develop for the first time a set of measures of phylogeographic incompatibility, aimed at detecting differences between geographical histories in terms of distances between phylogeographies. We study the effect of varying demography and recombination on phylogeographic incompatibilities using coalescent simulations. We further apply these measures to the evolutionary history of human and livestock pathogens, either reassorting or recombining, such as the Victoria and Yamagata lineages of influenza B and the O/Ind-2001 foot-and-mouth disease virus strain. Our results reveal diverse geographical paths of migration that characterize the origins and evolutionary histories of different viral genes and genomic segments. These incompatibility measures can be applied to any phylogeography, and more generally to any phylogeny where each tip has been assigned either a continuous or discrete “trait” independent of the sequence. We illustrate this flexibility with an analysis of the interplay between the phylogeography and phylolinguistics of Uralic-speaking human populations, hinting at patrilinear language transmission.

Livestock farming across the world is constantly threatened by the evolutionary turnover of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) strains in endemic systems, the underlying dynamics of which remain to be elucidated. Here, we map the eco-evolutionary landscape of cocirculating FMDV lineages within an important endemic virus pool encompassing Western, Central, and parts of Southern Asia, reconstructing the evolutionary history and spatial dynamics over the last 20 years that shape the current epidemiological situation. We demonstrate that new FMDV variants periodically emerge from Southern Asia, precipitating waves of virus incursions that systematically travel in a westerly direction. We evidence how metapopulation dynamics drive the emergence and extinction of spatially structured virus populations, and how transmission in different host species regulates the evolutionary space of virus serotypes. Our work provides the first integrative framework that defines coevolutionary signatures of FMDV in regional contexts to help understand the complex interplay between virus phenotypes, host characteristics, and key epidemiological determinants of transmission that drive FMDV evolution in endemic settings.

In foot-and-mouth disease (FMD)-endemic countries, vaccination is commonly used to control the disease, whilst in FMD-free countries, vaccination is considered as an option, in addition to culling the infected and in contact animals. FMD vaccines are mainly comprised of inactivated virions and stimulate protective antibodies to virus structural proteins. In contrast, infection with FMD virus leads to virus replication and additional antibody responses to viral nonstructural proteins (NSP). Therefore, antibodies against NSPs are used to differentiate infection in vaccinated animals (DIVA), in order to estimate the prevalence of infection or its absence. Another advantage of NSP antibody tests is that they detect FMD infection in the field, irrespective of the serotypes of virus in circulation. In cattle, the NSP tests that target the 3ABC polyprotein provides the highest sensitivity, detecting up to 90% of vaccinated animals that become carriers after exposure to infection, with a specificity of around 99%. Due to insufficient diagnostic sensitivity and specificity, detection of a low level of infection is difficult at the population level with a high degree of confidence. The low level of non-specific responses can be overcome by retesting samples scored positive using a second confirmatory test, which should have at least comparable sensitivity to the first test. In this study, six in-house tests were developed incorporating different NSP antigens, and validated using bovine sera from naïve animals, field cases and experimentally vaccinated and/or infected animals. In addition, two (short and long incubation) new commercial NSP tests based on 3ABC competitive blocking ELISAs (ID Screen® FMD NSP Competition, IDvet, France) were validated in this study. The two commercial ELISAs had very similar sensitivities and specificities that were not improved by lengthening the incubation period. Several of the new in-house tests had performance characteristics that were nearly as good as the commercial ELISAs. Finally, the in-house tests were evaluated for use as confirmatory tests following screening with the PrioCHECK® and ID Screen® FMDV NS commercial kits, to assess the diagnostic performance produced by a multiple testing strategy. The in-house tests could be used in series (to confirm) or in parallel (to augment) with the PrioCHECK® and IDvet® FMDV NS commercial kits, in order to improve either the specificity or sensitivity of the overall test system, although this comes at the cost of a reduction in the counterpart (sensitivity/specificity) parameter.

Abstract As the coronavirus disease 2019 spread globally, emerging variants such as B.1.1.529 quickly became dominant worldwide. Sustained community transmission favors the proliferation of mutated sub-lineages with pandemic potential, due to cross-national mobility flows, which are responsible for consecutive cases surge worldwide. We show that, in the early stages of an emerging variant, integrating data from national genomic surveillance and global human mobility with large-scale epidemic modeling allows to quantify its pandemic potential, providing quantifiable indicators for pro-active policy interventions. We validate our framework on worldwide spreading variants and gain insights about the pandemic potential of BA.5, BA.2.75, and other sub- and lineages. We combine the different sources of information in a simple estimate of the pandemic delay and show that only in combination, the pandemic potentials of the lineages are correctly assessed relative to each other. Compared to a country-level epidemic intelligence, our scalable integrated approach, that is pandemic intelligence, permits to enhance global preparedness to contrast the pandemic of respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2.

It is well known that approximately 50% of cattle infected with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus (FMDV) may become asymptomatic carrier (persistently infected) animals. Although transmission of FMDV from carrier cattle to naïve cattle has not been demonstrated experimentally, circumstantial evidence from field studies has linked FMDV-carrier cattle to cause subsequent outbreaks. Therefore, the asymptomatic carrier state complicates the control and eradication of FMD. Current serological diagnosis using tests for antibodies to the viral non-structural proteins (NSP-ELISA) are not sensitive enough to detect all carrier animals, if persistently infected after vaccination and do not distinguish between carriers and non-carriers. The specificity of the NSP ELISA may also be reduced after vaccination, in particular after multiple vaccination. FMDV-specific mucosal antibodies (IgA) are not produced in vaccinated cattle but are elevated transiently during the acute phase of infection and can be detected at a high level in cattle persistently infected with FMDV, irrespective of their vaccination status. Therefore, detection of IgA by ELISA may be considered a diagnostic alternative to RT-PCR for assessing FMDV persistent infection in ruminants in both vaccinated and unvaccinated infected populations. This study reports on the development and validation of a new mucosal IgA ELISA for the detection of carrier animals using nasal, saliva, and oro-pharyngeal fluid (OPF) samples. The diagnostic performance of the IgA ELISA using nasal samples from experimentally vaccinated and infected cattle demonstrated a high level of specificity (99%) and an improved level of sensitivity (76.5%). Furthermore, the detection of carrier animals reached 96.9% when parallel testing of samples was carried out using both the IgA-ELISA and NSP-ELISA.

African swine fever virus (ASFV) is one of the pathogens of highest concern worldwide. Despite different virus lineages co-circulating in several areas, dual infections in the same animal have been rarely observed, suggesting that ASF superinfections are infrequent events. Here we present the first genome-wide detection and analysis of two intragenotype dual ASFV infections. The dual infections have been detected in a hunted wild boar and in a pig carcass, both infected by ASFV genotype I in Sardinia in 1984 and 2018, respectively. We characterize the genetic differences between the two sequences, their intra-host frequency, and their phylogenetic relationship among fully sequenced ASFV strains from Sardinia. Both dual infections involve pairs of closely related but different viruses that were circulating in Sardinia in the same period. The results imply that dual ASFV infections or similar ASFV strains are more common than expected, especially in ASF endemic areas, albeit difficult to detect.

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a zoonotic arbovirus that causes severe disease in livestock and humans. The virus has caused recurrent outbreaks in Africa and the Arabian Peninsula since its discovery in 1931. This review sought to evaluate RVFV seroprevalence across the African continent in livestock, wildlife and humans in order to understand the spatio-temporal distribution of RVFV seroprevalence and to identify knowledge gaps and areas requiring further research. Risk factors associated with seropositivity were identified and study designs evaluated to understand the validity of their results. The Preferred Reporting of Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were used to produce a protocol to systematically search for RVFV seroprevalence studies in PubMed and Web of Science databases. The Strengthening the Reporting of Observational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) statement guided the evaluation of study design and analyses. A total of 174 RVFV seroprevalence studies in 126 articles fulfilled the inclusion criteria. RVFV seroprevalence was recorded in 31 African countries from 1968 to 2016 and varied by time, species and country. RVFV seroprevalence articles including either livestock and humans or livestock and wildlife seroprevalence records were limited in number (8/126). No articles considered wildlife, livestock and human seroprevalence concurrently, nor wildlife and humans alone. Many studies did not account for study design bias or the sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic tests. Future research should focus on conducting seroprevalence studies at the wildlife, livestock and human interface to better understand the nature of cross-species transmission of RVFV. Reporting should be more transparent and biases accounted for in future seroprevalence research to understand the true burden of disease on the African continent.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral infection of cloven-hoofed animals. In Kenya, the disease is endemic with outbreaks typically occurring throughout the year. A cross-sectional study was undertaken in Nakuru County to investigate farmer knowledge and risk factors for clinical disease. Semi-structured interviews were conducted on 220 smallholder farmers, selected using random spatial sampling. The majority of respondents (207/220 [94.1%]) knew of FMD and 166/207 (80.2%) of them could correctly identify the disease based on their knowledge of the clinical signs. Forty-five out of 220 farmers (20.4%) vaccinated their livestock against FMD in the previous 6 months, although of those who knew of FMD only 96/207 (46.4%) perceived it as a preventive measure undertaken to reduce the risk of disease in their farm. FMD had occurred in 5.9% of the surveyed farms within the previous 6 months (from May to November 2016). Using multivariate analysis, the use of a shared bull (OR = 9.7; p  = 0.014) and the number of sheep owned (for each additional sheep owned OR = 1.1; p  = 0.066) were associated with an increased likelihood of a farm experiencing a case of FMD in the previous 6 months, although the evidence for the latter was weak. This study reports risk factors associated with clinical FMD at the farm level in a densely populated smallholder farming area of Kenya. These results can be used to inform the development of risk-based strategic plans for FMD control and as a baseline for evaluating interventions and control strategies.

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is one of the few veterinary pathogens that defines policy and global trade in animal products. Its prominence necessitates approaches to control that integrate the multiple factors contributing to the disease’s biology and transmission characteristics. Central to this concept is the epidemiological FMD status (endemic or FMD-free, with or without vaccination) of a territory, which defines access to export markets. FMD epidemiology is complex, insufficiently understood, and intertwined with the biology of the virus (multiple serotypes and subtypes), global distribution (distinct regional virus pools), pathogenesis (subclinical infections and species differences), and host range (broad range of susceptible domestic and wild animals). Despite steady advances, critical knowledge gaps persist in FMD epidemiology that undermine the optimal control of FMD. This review summarizes the distinct thematic compartments of FMD epidemiology and presents the critical knowledge gaps that continue to limit the effectiveness of global, regional, and national initiatives to control and eradicate FMD.

Background Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is capable of causing explosive outbreaks among domestic and wild cloven-hoofed animals. Genomic characterisation of FMDV is a crucial component of disease control enabling accurate tracing of disease outbreaks to be undertaken. Nanopore sequencing is an affordable and accessible form of high-throughput sequencing (HTS) technology. However, most published methods for FMDV only sequence genomic fragments or focus upon specific lineages. In this study, a universal FMDV sequencing protocol was developed alongside a bespoke analytical pipeline to sequence any FMDV genome in the absence of prior knowledge regarding the identity of the serotype or lineage. Methods Universal multiplex RT-PCRs were used to amplify overlapping tiles encompassing the entire FMDV genome. The PCR products were pooled and subjected to nanopore sequencing using the portable MinION sequencing device. A bioinformatics pipeline was used to assemble genomes based upon blastn and reference assembly. Results Iterative changes in primer design and pooling resulted in two panels of primers; one set amplifying twenty short fragments (S_scheme), and another set amplifying six longer fragments (L_scheme). Both approaches were shown to be capable of generating FMDV genomes, however the L_scheme was simpler, more reliable and more cost-effective at generating complete genomes. The final L_scheme protocol was assessed using 30 FMDV isolates representing all the currently circulating lineages of FMDV. As part of the development, we successfully trialled the use of this technology in Uganda, a country endemic for FMD. Conclusions The amplification, sequencing and bioinformatics strategy developed here has been assessed using a diverse array of FMDV lineages. Using two multiplex PCR reactions, this approach can successfully generate complete genomes of FMDV in a lineage agnostic fashion. Therefore, the primer sets and approaches described here represent a useful tool for expanding the capacity of laboratories to characterise FMDV at the genomic level.