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Marine species and ecosystems are widely affected by anthropogenic stressors, ranging from pollution and fishing to climate change. Comprehensive assessments of how species and ecosystems are impacted by anthropogenic stressors are critical for guiding conservation and management investments. Previous global risk or vulnerability assessments have focused on marine habitats, or on limited taxa or specific regions. However, information about the susceptibility of marine species across a range of taxa to different stressors everywhere is required to predict how marine biodiversity will respond to human pressures. We present a novel framework that uses life‐history traits to assess species' vulnerability to a stressor, which we compare across more than 44,000 species from 12 taxonomic groups (classes). Using expert elicitation and literature review, we assessed every combination of each of 42 traits and 22 anthropogenic stressors to calculate each species' or representative species group's sensitivity and adaptive capacity to stressors, and then used these assessments to derive their overall relative vulnerability. The stressors with the greatest potential impact were related to biomass removal (e.g., fisheries), pollution, and climate change. The taxa with the highest vulnerabilities across the range of stressors were mollusks, corals, and echinoderms, while elasmobranchs had the highest vulnerability to fishing‐related stressors. Traits likely to confer vulnerability to climate change stressors were related to the presence of calcium carbonate structures, and whether a species exists across the interface of marine, terrestrial, and atmospheric realms. Traits likely to confer vulnerability to pollution stressors were related to planktonic state, organism size, and respiration. Such a replicable, broadly applicable method is useful for informing ocean conservation and management decisions at a range of scales, and the framework is amenable to further testing and improvement. Our framework for assessing the vulnerability of marine species is the first critical step toward generating cumulative human impact maps based on comprehensive assessments of species, rather than habitats.

Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean warming and acidification on rates of coral reef net carbonate production remain poorly constrained despite a wealth of studies assessing their effects on the calcification of individual organisms. Here, we present global estimates of projected future changes in coral reef net carbonate production under ocean warming and acidification. We apply a meta-analysis of responses of coral reef taxa calcification and bioerosion rates to predicted changes in coral cover driven by climate change to estimate the net carbonate production rates of 183 reefs worldwide by 2050 and 2100. We forecast mean global reef net carbonate production under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will decline by 76, 149, and 156%, respectively, by 2100. While 63% of reefs are projected to continue to accrete by 2100 under RCP2.6, 94% will be eroding by 2050 under RCP8.5, and no reefs will continue to accrete at rates matching projected sea level rise under RCP4.5 or 8.5 by 2100. Projected reduced coral cover due to bleaching events predominately drives these declines rather than the direct physiological impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcification or bioerosion. Presently degraded reefs were also more sensitive in our analysis. These findings highlight the low likelihood that the world’s coral reefs will maintain their functional roles without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO₂ emissions.

During 2015–2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs. Aerial and underwater survey data combined with satellite-derived measurements of sea surface temperature over the past two decades show that multiple mass-bleaching events have expanded to encompass virtually all of the Great Barrier Reef. Barrier reef bleaching The Great Barrier Reef is the world's largest reef system, but is being increasingly affected by climate change. Terry Hughes and colleagues examine changes in the geographic footprint of mass bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef over the last two decades, using aerial and underwater survey data combined with satellite-derived measurements of sea surface temperature. They show that the cumulative footprint of multiple bleaching events has expanded to encompass virtually all of the Great Barrier Reef, reducing the number and size of potential refuges. The 2016 bleaching event proved the most severe, affecting 91% of individual reefs. The authors call for immediate global action to reduce the magnitude of climate warming in order to secure a future for coral reefs.

Coralline algae are key biological substrates of many carbonate systems globally. Their capacity to build enduring crusts that underpin the formation of tropical reefs, rhodolith beds and other benthic substrate is dependent on the formation of a calcified thallus. However, this important process of skeletal carbonate formation is not well understood. We undertook a study of cellular carbonate features to develop a model for calcification. We describe two types of cell wall calcification; 1) calcified primary cell wall (PCW) in the thin-walled elongate cells such as central medullary cells in articulated corallines and hypothallial cells in crustose coralline algae (CCA), 2) calcified secondary cell wall (SCW) with radial Mg-calcite crystals in thicker-walled rounded cortical cells of articulated corallines and perithallial cells of CCA. The distinctive banding found in many rhodoliths is the regular transition from PCW-only cells to SCW cells. Within the cell walls there can be bands of elevated Mg with Mg content of a few mol% higher than radial Mg-calcite (M-type), ranging up to dolomite composition (D-type). We propose the following three-step model for calcification. 1) A thin (< 0.5 μm) PCW forms and is filled with a mineralising fluid of organic compounds and seawater. Nanometer-scale Mg-calcite grains precipitate on the organic structures within the PCW. 2) Crystalline cellulose microfibrils (CMF) are extruded perpendicularly from the cellulose synthase complexes (CSC) in the plasmalemma to form the SCW. 3) The CMF soaks in the mineralising fluid as it extrudes and becomes calcified, retaining the perpendicular form, thus building the radial calcite. In Clathromorphum, SCW formation lags PCW creating a zone of weakness resulting in a split in the sub-surface crust. All calcification seems likely to be a bioinduced rather than controlled process. These findings are a substantial step forward in understanding how corallines calcify.

Coralline algae are foundation species in many ecosystems they inhabit, acting as a settlement substrate, and binding together and even creating reefs in some locations. Ocean acidification is known to be a major threat to coralline algae. However, the effects of ocean warming are less certain. Here we bring multiple lines of evidence together to discuss the potential impacts of ocean warming on these ecologically crucial taxa. We use a meta-analysis on across 40 responses within the 14 different studies available that have assessed the effects of increasing temperature on coralline algal calcification in laboratory experiments. We do find a net negative impact of increasing temperature on coralline algal calcification at 5.2° C above ambient conditions under the singular effects of warming. Conversely, similar effects are seen when temperature drops below 2.0° C from ambient conditions. We propose that some coralline algae will be more capable of both acclimating and locally adapting to increasing ocean temperatures over the coming decades. This is due to the fact that many species possess short generation times, the ability to opportunistically rapidly utilise open space, and relatively high phenotypic plasticity compared to other important benthic species (e.g. corals). However, long-lived species, those with long generation times, or with narrow thermal tolerances could be at particular risk from ocean warming. Additionally, ocean warming will occur simultaneously with ocean acidification, a potentially greater threat to coralline algae, which could also reduce this tolerance to ocean warming in many species. We give key recommendations that will maximise the potential for future research to accurately determine how coralline algae will respond to future ocean warming.

Background Crustose coralline algae (CCA) are calcifying red macroalgae that play important ecological roles including stabilisation of reef frameworks and provision of settlement cues for a range of marine invertebrates. Previous research into the responses of CCA to ocean warming (OW) and ocean acidification (OA) have found magnitude of effect to be species-specific. Response to OW and OA could be linked to divergent underlying molecular processes across species. Results Here we show Sporolithon durum , a species that exhibits low sensitivity to climate stressors, had little change in metabolic performance and did not significantly alter the expression of any genes when exposed to temperature and pH perturbations. In contrast, Porolithon onkodes , a major coral reef builder, reduced photosynthetic rates and had a labile transcriptomic response with over 400 significantly differentially expressed genes, with differential regulation of genes relating to physiological processes such as carbon acquisition and metabolism. The differential gene expression detected in P. onkodes implicates possible key metabolic pathways, including the pentose phosphate pathway, in the stress response of this species. Conclusions We suggest S. durum is more resistant to OW and OA than P. onkodes , which demonstrated a high sensitivity to climate stressors and may have limited ability for acclimatisation. Understanding changes in gene expression in relation to physiological processes of CCA could help us understand and predict how different species will respond to, and persist in, future ocean conditions predicted for 2100.

Newly settled recruits typically suffer high mortality from disturbances, but rapid growth reduces their mortality once size-escape thresholds are attained. Ocean acidification (OA) reduces the growth of recruiting benthic invertebrates, yet no direct effects on survivorship have been demonstrated. We tested whether the reduced growth of coral recruits caused by OA would increase their mortality by prolonging their vulnerability to an acute disturbance: fish herbivory on surrounding algal turf. After two months' growth in ambient or elevated CO 2 levels, the linear extension and calcification of coral ( Acropora millepora ) recruits decreased as CO 2 partial pressure ( p CO 2 ) increased. When recruits were subjected to incidental fish grazing, their mortality was inversely size dependent. However, we also found an additive effect of p CO 2 such that recruit mortality was higher under elevated p CO 2 irrespective of size. Compared to ambient conditions, coral recruits needed to double their size at the highest p CO 2 to escape incidental grazing mortality. This general trend was observed with three groups of predators (blenny, surgeonfish, and parrotfish), although the magnitude of the fish treatment varied among species. Our study demonstrates the importance of size-escape thresholds in early recruit survival and how OA can shift these thresholds, potentially intensifying population bottlenecks in benthic invertebrate recruitment.

Crustose coralline algae (CCA) are vital to coral reefs worldwide, providing structural integrity and inducing the settlement of important invertebrate larvae. CCA are known to be impacted by changes in their environment, both during early development and adulthood. However, long-term studies on either life history stage are lacking in the literature, therefore not allowing time to explore the acclimatory or potential adaptive responses of CCA to future global change scenarios. Here, we exposed a widely distributed, slow growing, species of CCA, Sporolithon cf. durum, to elevated temperature and pCO2 for five months and their first set of offspring (F1) for eleven weeks. Survival, reproductive output, and metabolic rate were measured in adult S. cf. durum, and survival and growth were measured in the F1 generation. Adult S. cf. durum experienced 0% mortality across treatments and reduced their O2 production after five months exposure to global stressors, indicating a possible expression of plasticity. In contrast, the combined stressors of elevated temperature and pCO2 resulted in 50% higher mortality and 61% lower growth on germlings. On the other hand, under the independent elevated pCO2 treatment, germling growth was higher than all other treatments. These results show the robustness and plasticity of S. cf. durum adults, indicating the potential for them to acclimate to increased temperature and pCO2. However, the germlings of this species are highly sensitive to global stressors and this could negatively impact this species in future oceans, and ultimately the structure and stability of coral reefs.

Reduced seawater pH and changes in carbonate chemistry associated with ocean acidification (OA) decrease the recruitment of crustose coralline algae (CCAcf.), an important coral-reef builder. However, it is unclear whether the observed decline in recruitment is driven by impairment of spore germination, or post-settlement processes (e.g. space competition). To address this, we conducted an experiment using a dominant CCA, Porolithon cf. onkodes to test the independent and combined effects of OA, warming, and irradiance on its germination success and early development. Elevated CO2 negatively affected several processes of spore germination, including formation of the germination disc, initial growth, and germling survival. The magnitude of these effects varied depending on the levels of temperature and irradiance. For example, the combination of high CO2 and high temperature reduced formation of the germination disc, but this effect was independent of irradiance levels, while spore abnormalities increased under high CO2 and high temperature particularly in combination with low irradiance intensity. This study demonstrates that spore germination of CCA is impacted by the independent and interactive effects of OA, increasing seawater temperature and irradiance intensity. For the first time, this provides a mechanism for how the sensitivity of critical early life history processes to global change may drive declines of adult populations of key marine calcifiers.

Many coral reefs have phase shifted from coral to macroalgal dominance. Ocean acidification (OA) due to elevated CO 2 is hypothesised to advantage macroalgae over corals, contributing to these shifts, but the mechanisms affecting coral-macroalgal interactions under OA are unknown. Here, we show that (i) three common macroalgae are more damaging to a common coral when they compete under CO 2 concentrations predicted to occur in 2050 and 2100 than under present-day conditions, (ii) that two macroalgae damage corals via allelopathy, and (iii) that one macroalga is allelopathic under conditions of elevated CO 2 , but not at ambient levels. Lipid-soluble, surface extracts from the macroalga Canistrocarpus (= Dictyota) cervicornis were significantly more damaging to the coral Acropora intermedia growing in the field if these extracts were from thalli grown under elevated vs ambient concentrations of CO 2 . Extracts from the macroalgae Chlorodesmis fastigiata and Amansia glomerata were not more potent when grown under elevated CO 2 . Our results demonstrate increasing OA advantages seaweeds over corals, that algal allelopathy can mediate coral-algal interactions, and that OA may enhance the allelopathy of some macroalgae. Other mechanisms also affect coral-macroalgal interactions under OA, and OA further suppresses the resilience of coral reefs suffering blooms of macroalgae.