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Central Asia is a data scarce region, which makes it difficult to monitor and minimize the impacts of a drought. To address this challenge, in this study, a high-resolution (5 km) Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI-HR) drought dataset was developed for Central Asia with different time scales from 1981–2018, using Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Station’s (CHIRPS) precipitation and Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model’s (GLEAM) potential evaporation (E p ) datasets. As indicated by the results, in general, over time and space, the SPEI-HR correlated well with SPEI values estimated from coarse-resolution Climate Research Unit (CRU) gridded time series dataset. The 6-month timescale SPEI-HR dataset displayed a good correlation of 0.66 with GLEAM root zone soil moisture (RSM) and a positive correlation of 0.26 with normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from Global Inventory Monitoring and Modelling System (GIMMS). After observing a clear agreement between SPEI-HR and drought indicators for the 2001 and 2008 drought events, an emerging hotspot analysis was conducted to identify drought prone districts and sub-basins. Measurement(s) Drought index Technology Type(s) Remote sensing products Factor Type(s) Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index Sample Characteristic - Environment drought Sample Characteristic - Location Central Asia

Understanding responses by changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and climate over the past decades on streamflow in the upper Blue Nile River basin is important for water management and water resource planning in the Nile basin at large. This study assesses the long-term trends of rainfall and streamflow and analyses the responses of steamflow to changes in LULC and climate in the upper Blue Nile River basin. Findings of the Mann–Kendall (MK) test indicate statistically insignificant increasing trends for basin-wide annual, monthly, and long rainy-season rainfall but no trend for the daily, short rainy-season, and dry season rainfall. The Pettitt test did not detect any jump point in basin-wide rainfall series, except for daily time series rainfall. The findings of the MK test for daily, monthly, annual, and seasonal streamflow showed a statistically significant increasing trend. Landsat satellite images for 1973, 1985, 1995, and 2010 were used for LULC change-detection analysis. The LULC change-detection findings indicate increases in cultivated land and decreases in forest coverage prior to 1995, but forest area increases after 1995 with the area of cultivated land that decreased. Statistically, forest coverage changed from 17.4 % to 14.4%, by 12.2 %, and by 15.6 %, while cultivated land changed from 62.9 % to 65.6 %, by 67.5 %, and by 63.9 % from 1973 to 1985, in 1995, and in 2010, respectively. Results of hydrological modelling indicate that mean annual streamflow increased by 16.9 % between the 1970s and 2000s due to the combined effects of LULC and climate change. Findings on the effects of LULC change on only streamflow indicate that surface runoff and base flow are affected and are attributed to the 5.1 % reduction in forest coverage and a 4.6 % increase in cultivated land areas. The effects of climate change only revealed that the increased rainfall intensity and number of extreme rainfall events from 1971 to 2010 significantly affected the surface runoff and base flow. Hydrological impacts by climate change are more significant as compared to the impacts of LULC change for streamflow of the upper Blue Nile River basin.

Soil volumetric water content ( V W C ) is a vital parameter to understand several ecohydrological and environmental processes. Its cost-effective measurement can potentially drive various technological tools to promote data-driven sustainable agriculture through supplemental irrigation solutions, the lack of which has contributed to severe agricultural distress, particularly for smallholder farmers. The cost of commercially available V W C sensors varies over four orders of magnitude. A laboratory study characterizing and testing sensors from this wide range of cost categories, which is a prerequisite to explore their applicability for irrigation management, has not been conducted. Within this context, two low-cost capacitive sensors—SMEC300 and SM100—manufactured by Spectrum Technologies Inc. (Aurora, IL, USA), and two very low-cost resistive sensors—the Soil Hygrometer Detection Module Soil Moisture Sensor (YL100) by Electronicfans and the Generic Soil Moisture Sensor Module (YL69) by KitsGuru—were tested for performance in laboratory conditions. Each sensor was calibrated in different repacked soils, and tested to evaluate accuracy, precision and sensitivity to variations in temperature and salinity. The capacitive sensors were additionally tested for their performance in liquids of known dielectric constants, and a comparative analysis of the calibration equations developed in-house and provided by the manufacturer was carried out. The value for money of the sensors is reflected in their precision performance, i.e., the precision performance largely follows sensor costs. The other aspects of sensor performance do not necessarily follow sensor costs. The low-cost capacitive sensors were more accurate than manufacturer specifications, and could match the performance of the secondary standard sensor, after soil specific calibration. SMEC300 is accurate ( M A E , R M S E , and R A E of 2.12%, 2.88% and 0.28 respectively), precise, and performed well considering its price as well as multi-purpose sensing capabilities. The less-expensive SM100 sensor had a better accuracy ( M A E , R M S E , and R A E of 1.67%, 2.36% and 0.21 respectively) but poorer precision than the SMEC300. However, it was established as a robust, field ready, low-cost sensor due to its more consistent performance in soils (particularly the field soil) and superior performance in fluids. Both the capacitive sensors responded reasonably to variations in temperature and salinity conditions. Though the resistive sensors were less accurate and precise compared to the capacitive sensors, they performed well considering their cost category. The YL100 was more accurate ( M A E , R M S E , and R A E of 3.51%, 5.21% and 0.37 respectively) than YL69 ( M A E , R M S E , and R A E of 4.13%, 5.54%, and 0.41, respectively). However, YL69 outperformed YL100 in terms of precision, and response to temperature and salinity variations, to emerge as a more robust resistive sensor. These very low-cost sensors may be used in combination with more accurate sensors to better characterize the spatiotemporal variability of field scale soil moisture. The laboratory characterization conducted in this study is a prerequisite to estimate the effect of low- and very low-cost sensor measurements on the efficiency of soil moisture based irrigation scheduling systems.

Modeling inland water quality by remote sensing has already demonstrated its capacity to make accurate predictions. However, limitations still exist for applicability in diverse regions, as well as to retrieve non-optically active parameters (nOAC). Models are usually trained only with water samples from individual or local groups of waterbodies, which limits their capacity and accuracy in predicting parameters across diverse regions. This study aims to increase data availability to understand the performance of models trained with heterogeneous databases from both remote sensing and field measurement sources to improve machine learning training. This paper seeks to build a dataset with worldwide lake characteristics using data from water monitoring programs around the world paired with harmonized data of Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2. Additional feature engineering is also examined. The dataset is then used for model training and prediction of water quality at the global scale, time series analysis and water quality maps for lakes in different continents. Additionally, the modeling performance of nOACs are also investigated. The results show that trained models achieve moderately high correlations for SDD, TURB and BOD (R2 = 0.68) but lower performances for TSM and NO3-N (R2 = 0.43). The extreme learning machine (ELM) and the random forest regression (RFR) demonstrate better performance. The results indicate that ML algorithms can process remote sensing data and additional features to model water quality at the global scale and contribute to address the limitations of transferring and retrieving nOAC. However, significant limitations need to be considered, such as calibrated harmonization of water data and atmospheric correction procedures. Moreover, further understanding of the mechanisms that facilitate nOAC prediction is necessary. We highlight the need for international contributions to global water quality datasets capable of providing extensive water data for the improvement of global water monitoring.

Remote Sensing, as a driver for water management decisions, needs further integration with monitoring water quality programs, especially in developing countries. Moreover, usage of remote sensing approaches has not been broadly applied in monitoring routines. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the efficacy of available sensors to complement the often limited field measurements from such programs and build models that support monitoring tasks. Here, we integrate field measurements (2013–2019) from the Mexican national water quality monitoring system (RNMCA) with data from Landsat-8 OLI, Sentinel-3 OLCI, and Sentinel-2 MSI to train an extreme learning machine (ELM), a support vector regression (SVR) and a linear regression (LR) for estimating Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), Turbidity, Total Suspended Matter (TSM) and Secchi Disk Depth (SDD). Additionally, OLCI Level-2 Products for Chl-a and TSM are compared against the RNMCA data. We observed that OLCI Level-2 Products are poorly correlated with the RNMCA data and it is not feasible to rely only on them to support monitoring operations. However, OLCI atmospherically corrected data is useful to develop accurate models using an ELM, particularly for Turbidity (R2 = 0.7). We conclude that remote sensing is useful to support monitoring systems tasks, and its progressive integration will improve the quality of water quality monitoring programs.

As the impacts of climate change intensify, water resource conflicts are escalating globally, particularly in regions with uneven water distribution, such as Central Asia. Long-standing disputes over water allocation persist between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. This paper aims to examine the conflicts and challenges in water allocation between the two countries and explore the potential of Decision Support Systems (DSSs) as a viable solution. The paper begins by reviewing the historical evolution of water allocation in Central Asia, analyzing upstream–downstream disputes and notable cooperation efforts, with a focus on key water agreements. It then outlines the definitions, development, and classifications of DSSs in the context of water allocation and presents two illustrative case studies—the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang, China, and the Nile River Basin in Africa. These cases demonstrate the applicability of DSSs in water-scarce regions with similar socio-ecological dynamics and complex multi-country, cross-sectoral water demands. Building on these insights, the paper analyzes the key challenges to implementing DSSs for transboundary water allocation in Central Asia, including limited data availability and sharing, insufficient technical capacity, chronic funding shortages, socio-political complexities, climate change impacts, and the inherent difficulty of modeling complex systems. In response, a set of targeted pragmatic recommendations is proposed. While acknowledging its limitations, the paper argues that establishing a structured, system-based decision-making framework—namely DSSs—can help stakeholders enhance climate-informed strategic planning and foster cooperation, ultimately contributing to more equitable and sustainable water resource allocation in the region.

This study performs a comparison of two model calibration/validation approaches and their influence on future hydrological projections under climate change by employing two climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and 8.5) projected by four global climate models. Two hydrological models (HMs), snowmelt runoff model + glaciers and variable infiltration capacity model coupled with a glacier model, were used to simulate streamflow in the highly snow and glacier melt–driven Upper Indus Basin. In the first (conventional) calibration approach, the models were calibrated only at the basin outlet, while in the second (enhanced) approach intermediate gauges, different climate conditions and glacier mass balance were considered. Using the conventional and enhanced calibration approaches, the monthly Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) for both HMs ranged from 0.71 to 0.93 and 0.79 to 0.90 in the calibration, while 0.57–0.92 and 0.54–0.83 in the validation periods, respectively. For the future impact assessment, comparison of differences based on the two calibration/validation methods at the annual scale (i.e. 2011–2099) shows small to moderate differences of up to 10%, whereas differences at the monthly scale reached up to 19% in the cold months (i.e. October–March) for the far future period. Comparison of sources of uncertainty using analysis of variance showed that the contribution of HM parameter uncertainty to the overall uncertainty is becoming very small by the end of the century using the enhanced approach. This indicates that enhanced approach could potentially help to reduce uncertainties in the hydrological projections when compared to the conventional calibration approach.

The paper presents a new methodology for hydrodynamic-based flood forecast that focuses on scenario generation and database queries to select appropriate flood inundation maps in real-time. In operational flood forecasting, only discharges are forecasted at specific gauges using hydrological models. Hydrodynamic models, which are required to produce inundation maps, are computationally expensive, hence not feasible for real-time inundation forecasting. In this study, we have used a substantial number of pre-calculated inundation maps that are stored in a database and a methodology to extract the most likely maps in real-time. The method uses real-time discharge forecast at upstream gauge as an input and compares it with the pre-recorded scenarios. The results show satisfactory agreements between offline inundation maps that are retrieved from a pre-recorded database and online maps, which are hindcasted using historical events. Furthermore, this allows an efficient early warning system, thanks to the fast run-time of the proposed offline selection of inundation maps. The framework is validated in the city of Kulmbach in Germany.

Meltwater from mountainous catchments dominated by snow and ice is a valuable source of fresh water in many regions. At mid-latitudes, seasonal snow cover and glaciers act like a natural reservoir by storing precipitation during winter and releasing it in spring and summer. Snowmelt is usually modelled either by energy balance or by temperature-index approaches. The energy balance approach is process-based and more sophisticated but requires extensive input data, while the temperature-index approach uses the degree-day factor (DDF) as a key parameter to estimate melt of snow and ice merely from air temperature. Despite its simplicity, the temperature-index approach has proved to be a powerful tool for simulating the melt process especially in large and data-scarce catchments. The present study attempts to quantify the effects of spatial, temporal, and climatic conditions on the DDF of snow in order to gain a better understanding of which influencing factors are decisive under which conditions. The analysis is based on the individual energy flux components; however, formulas for estimating the DDF are presented to account for situations where observed data are limited. A detailed comparison between field-derived and estimated DDF values yields a fair agreement with bias = 0.14 mm ∘C−1 d−1 and root mean square error (RMSE) = 1.12 mm ∘C−1 d−1. The analysis of the energy balance processes controlling snowmelt indicates that cloud cover and snow albedo under clear sky are the most decisive factors for estimating the DDF of snow. The results of this study further underline that the DDF changes as the melt season progresses and thus also with altitude, since melting conditions arrive later at higher elevations. A brief analysis of the DDF under the influence of climate change shows that the DDFs are expected to decrease when comparing periods of similar degree days, as melt will occur earlier in the year when solar radiation is lower, and albedo is then likely to be higher. Therefore, the DDF cannot be treated as a constant parameter especially when using temperature-index models for forecasting present or predicting future water availability.

Remote-sensing-based machine learning approaches for water quality parameters estimation, Secchi Disk Depth (SDD) and Turbidity, were developed for the Valle de Bravo reservoir in central Mexico. This waterbody is a multipurpose reservoir, which provides drinking water to the metropolitan area of Mexico City. To reveal the water quality status of inland waters in the last decade, evaluation of MERIS imagery is a substantial approach. This study incorporated in-situ collected measurements across the reservoir and remote sensing reflectance data from the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS). Machine learning approaches with varying complexities were tested, and the optimal model for SDD and Turbidity was determined. Cross-validation demonstrated that the satellite-based estimates are consistent with the in-situ measurements for both SDD and Turbidity, with R2 values of 0.81 to 0.86 and RMSE of 0.15 m and 0.95 nephelometric turbidity units (NTU). The best model was applied to time series of MERIS images to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of the reservoir’s water quality from 2002 to 2012. Derived analysis revealed yearly patterns caused by dry and rainy seasons and several disruptions were identified. The reservoir varied from trophic to intermittent hypertrophic status, while SDD ranged from 0–1.93 m and Turbidity up to 23.70 NTU. Results suggest the effects of drought events in the years 2006 and 2009 on water quality were correlated with water quality detriment. The water quality displayed slow recovery through 2011–2012. This study demonstrates the usefulness of satellite observations for supporting inland water quality monitoring and water management in this region.