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Horizontal pleiotropy occurs when the variant has an effect on disease outside of its effect on the exposure in Mendelian randomization (MR). Violation of the ‘no horizontal pleiotropy’ assumption can cause severe bias in MR. We developed the Mendelian randomization pleiotropy residual sum and outlier (MR-PRESSO) test to identify horizontal pleiotropic outliers in multi-instrument summary-level MR testing. We showed using simulations that the MR-PRESSO test is best suited when horizontal pleiotropy occurs in <50% of instruments. Next we applied the MR-PRESSO test, along with several other MR tests, to complex traits and diseases and found that horizontal pleiotropy (i) was detectable in over 48% of significant causal relationships in MR; (ii) introduced distortions in the causal estimates in MR that ranged on average from –131% to 201%; (iii) induced false-positive causal relationships in up to 10% of relationships; and (iv) could be corrected in some but not all instances. The MR-PRESSO test detects and corrects horizontal pleiotropy in multi-instrument Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses. Applying the MR-PRESSO test to 4,250 MR tests of complex traits and diseases finds horizontal pleiotropy in >48% of causal relationships.

Horizontal pleiotropy, where one variant has independent effects on multiple traits, is important for our understanding of the genetic architecture of human phenotypes. We develop a method to quantify horizontal pleiotropy using genome-wide association summary statistics and apply it to 372 heritable phenotypes measured in 361,194 UK Biobank individuals. Horizontal pleiotropy is pervasive throughout the human genome, prominent among highly polygenic phenotypes, and enriched in active regulatory regions. Our results highlight the central role horizontal pleiotropy plays in the genetic architecture of human phenotypes. The HOrizontal Pleiotropy Score (HOPS) method is available on Github at https://github.com/rondolab/HOPS .

Binary diagnosis of coronary artery disease does not preserve the complexity of disease or quantify its severity or its associated risk with death; hence, a quantitative marker of coronary artery disease is warranted. We evaluated a quantitative marker of coronary artery disease derived from probabilities of a machine learning model. In this cohort study, we developed and validated a coronary artery disease-predictive machine learning model using 95 935 electronic health records and assessed its probabilities as in-silico scores for coronary artery disease (ISCAD; range 0 [lowest probability] to 1 [highest probability]) in participants in two longitudinal biobank cohorts. We measured the association of ISCAD with clinical outcomes—namely, coronary artery stenosis, obstructive coronary artery disease, multivessel coronary artery disease, all-cause death, and coronary artery disease sequelae. Among 95 935 participants, 35 749 were from the BioMe Biobank (median age 61 years [IQR 18]; 14 599 [41%] were male and 21 150 [59%] were female; 5130 [14%] were with diagnosed coronary artery disease) and 60 186 were from the UK Biobank (median age 62 [15] years; 25 031 [42%] male and 35 155 [58%] female; 8128 [14%] with diagnosed coronary artery disease). The model predicted coronary artery disease with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0·95 (95% CI 0·94–0·95; sensitivity of 0·94 [0·94–0·95] and specificity of 0·82 [0·81–0·83]) and 0·93 (0·92–0·93; sensitivity of 0·90 [0·89–0·90] and specificity of 0·88 [0·87–0·88]) in the BioMe validation and holdout sets, respectively, and 0·91 (0·91–0·91; sensitivity of 0·84 [0·83–0·84] and specificity of 0·83 [0·82–0·83]) in the UK Biobank external test set. ISCAD captured coronary artery disease risk from known risk factors, pooled cohort equations, and polygenic risk scores. Coronary artery stenosis increased quantitatively with ascending ISCAD quartiles (increase per quartile of 12 percentage points), including risk of obstructive coronary artery disease, multivessel coronary artery disease, and stenosis of major coronary arteries. Hazard ratios (HRs) and prevalence of all-cause death increased stepwise over ISCAD deciles (decile 1: HR 1·0 [95% CI 1·0–1·0], 0·2% prevalence; decile 6: 11 [3·9–31], 3·1% prevalence; and decile 10: 56 [20–158], 11% prevalence). A similar trend was observed for recurrent myocardial infarction. 12 (46%) undiagnosed individuals with high ISCAD (≥0·9) had clinical evidence of coronary artery disease according to the 2014 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force guidelines. Electronic health record-based machine learning was used to generate an in-silico marker for coronary artery disease that can non-invasively quantify atherosclerosis and risk of death on a continuous spectrum, and identify underdiagnosed individuals. National Institutes of Health.

Genetic studies have revealed thousands of loci predisposing to hundreds of human diseases and traits, revealing important biological pathways and defining novel therapeutic hypotheses. However, the genes discovered to date typically explain less than half of the apparent heritability. Because efforts have largely focused on common genetic variants, one hypothesis is that much of the missing heritability is due to rare genetic variants. Studies of common variants are typically referred to as genomewide association studies, whereas studies of rare variants are often simply called sequencing studies. Because they are actually closely related, we use the terms common variant association study (CVAS) and rare variant association study (RVAS). In this paper, we outline the similarities and differences between RVAS and CVAS and describe a conceptual framework for the design of RVAS. We apply the framework to address key questions about the sample sizes needed to detect association, the relative merits of testing disruptive alleles vs. missense alleles, frequency thresholds for filtering alleles, the value of predictors of the functional impact of missense alleles, the potential utility of isolated populations, the value of gene-set analysis, and the utility of de novo mutations. The optimal design depends critically on the selection coefficient against deleterious alleles and thus varies across genes. The analysis shows that common variant and rare variant studies require similarly large sample collections. In particular, a well-powered RVAS should involve discovery sets with at least 25,000 cases, together with a substantial replication set.

Background Micronutrients, namely vitamins and minerals, are associated with cancer outcomes; however, their reported effects have been inconsistent across studies. We aimed to identify the causally estimated effects of micronutrients on cancer by applying the Mendelian randomization (MR) method, using single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with micronutrient levels as instrumental variables. Methods We obtained instrumental variables of 14 genetically predicted micronutrient levels and applied two-sample MR to estimate their causal effects on 22 cancer outcomes from a meta-analysis of the UK Biobank (UKB) and FinnGen cohorts (overall cancer and 21 site-specific cancers, including breast, colorectal, lung, and prostate cancer), in addition to six major cancer outcomes and 20 cancer subset outcomes from cancer consortia. We used sensitivity MR methods, including weighted median, MR-Egger, and MR-PRESSO, to assess potential horizontal pleiotropy or heterogeneity. Genome-wide association summary statistical data of European descent were used for both exposure and outcome data, including up to 940,633 participants of European descent with 133,384 cancer cases. Results In total, 672 MR tests (14 micronutrients × 48 cancer outcomes) were performed. The following two associations met Bonferroni significance by the number of associations ( P  < 0.00016) in the UKB plus FinnGen cohorts: increased risk of breast cancer with magnesium levels (odds ratio [OR] = 1.281 per 1 standard deviation [SD] higher magnesium level, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.151 to 1.426, P  < 0.0001) and increased risk of colorectal cancer with vitamin B12 level (OR = 1.22 per 1 SD higher vitamin B12 level, 95% CI = 1.107 to 1.345, P  < 0.0001). These two associations remained significant in the analysis of the cancer consortia. No significant heterogeneity or horizontal pleiotropy was observed. Micronutrient levels were not associated with overall cancer risk. Conclusions Our results may aid clinicians in deciding whether to regulate the intake of certain micronutrients, particularly in high-risk groups without nutritional deficiencies, and may help in the design of future clinical trials.

Background Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified common variants associated with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). However, rare coding variant studies have been limited by phenotyping challenges and small sample sizes. We test associations of rare and ultra-rare coding variants with proton density fat fraction (PDFF) and MASLD case–control status in 736,010 participants of diverse ancestries from the UK Biobank, All of Us, and BioMe and performed a trans-ancestral meta-analysis. We then developed models to accurately predict PDFF and MASLD status in the UK Biobank and tested associations with these predicted phenotypes to increase statistical power. Results The trans-ancestral meta-analysis with PDFF and MASLD case–control status identifies two single variants and two gene-level associations in APOB , CDH5 , MYCBP2 , and XAB2 . Association testing with predicted phenotypes, which replicates more known genetic variants from GWAS than true phenotypes, identifies 16 single variants and 11 gene-level associations implicating 23 additional genes. Two variants were polymorphic only among African ancestry participants and several associations showed significant heterogeneity in ancestry and sex-stratified analyses. In total, we identified 27 genes, of which 3 are monogenic causes of steatosis ( APOB , G6PC1 , PPARG ), 4 were previously associated with MASLD ( APOB , APOC3 , INSR , PPARG ), and 23 had supporting clinical, experimental, and/or genetic evidence. Conclusions Our results suggest that trans-ancestral association analyses can identify ancestry-specific rare and ultra-rare coding variants in MASLD pathogenesis. Furthermore, we demonstrate the utility of machine learning in genetic investigations of difficult-to-phenotype diseases in trans-ancestral biobanks.

As a first step toward understanding how rare variants contribute to risk for complex diseases, we sequenced 15,585 human protein-coding genes to an average median depth of 111 x in 2440 individuals of European (n = 1351) and African (n = 1088) ancestry. We identified over 500,000 single-nucleotide variants (SNVs), the majority of which were rare (86% with a minor allele frequency less than 0.5%), previously unknown (82%), and population-specific (82%). On average, 2.3% of the 13,595 SNVs each person carried were predicted to affect protein function of -313 genes per genome, and -95.7% of SNVs predicted to be functionally important were rare. This excess of rare functional variants is due to the combined effects of explosive, recent accelerated population growth and weak purifying selection. Furthermore, we show that large sample sizes will be required to associate rare variants with complex traits.

Studies have shown strong positive associations between serum urate (SU) levels and chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk; however, whether the relation is causal remains uncertain. We evaluate whether genetic data are consistent with a causal impact of SU level on the risk of CKD and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). We used Mendelian randomization (MR) methods to evaluate the presence of a causal effect. We used aggregated genome-wide association data (N = 110,347 for SU, N = 69,374 for gout, N = 133,413 for eGFR, N = 117,165 for CKD), electronic-medical-record-linked UK Biobank data (N = 335,212), and population-based cohorts (N = 13,425), all in individuals of European ancestry, for SU levels and CKD. Our MR analysis showed that SU has a causal effect on neither eGFR level nor CKD risk across all MR analyses (all P > 0.05). These null associations contrasted with our epidemiological association findings from the 4 population-based cohorts (change in eGFR level per 1-mg/dl [59.48 μmol/l] increase in SU: -1.99 ml/min/1.73 m2; 95% CI -2.86 to -1.11; P = 8.08 × 10(-6); odds ratio [OR] for CKD: 1.48; 95% CI 1.32 to 1.65; P = 1.52 × 10(-11)). In contrast, the same MR approaches showed that SU has a causal effect on the risk of gout (OR estimates ranging from 3.41 to 6.04 per 1-mg/dl increase in SU, all P < 10-3), which served as a positive control of our approach. Overall, our MR analysis had >99% power to detect a causal effect of SU level on the risk of CKD of the same magnitude as the observed epidemiological association between SU and CKD. Limitations of this study include the lifelong effect of a genetic perturbation not being the same as an acute perturbation, the inability to study non-European populations, and some sample overlap between the datasets used in the study. Evidence from our series of causal inference approaches using genetics does not support a causal effect of SU level on eGFR level or CKD risk. Reducing SU levels is unlikely to reduce the risk of CKD development.

Hyperuricemia is an essential causal risk factor for gout and is associated with cardiometabolic diseases. Given the limited contribution of East Asian ancestry to genome-wide association studies of serum urate, the genetic architecture of serum urate requires exploration. A large-scale cross-ancestry genome-wide association meta-analysis of 1,029,323 individuals and ancestry-specific meta-analysis identifies a total of 351 loci, including 17 previously unreported loci. The genetic architecture of serum urate control is similar between European and East Asian populations. A transcriptome-wide association study, enrichment analysis, and colocalization analysis in relevant tissues identify candidate serum urate-associated genes, including CTBP1 , SKIV2L , and WWP2 . A phenome-wide association study using polygenic risk scores identifies serum urate-correlated diseases including heart failure and hypertension. Mendelian randomization and mediation analyses show that serum urate-associated genes might have a causal relationship with serum urate-correlated diseases via mediation effects. This study elucidates our understanding of the genetic architecture of serum urate control. This large-scale cross-ancestry genome-wide association study reveals the genetic architecture of serum urate across ancestries and identifies urate-associated diseases and potential targets of urate-lowering drugs.

Many drug failures in clinical trials are due to inadequate safety profiles. We developed an in-silico side effect genetic priority score (SE-GPS) that leverages human genetic evidence to inform side effect risk for a given drug target. We construct the SE-GPS in the Open Target dataset using post-marketing side effect data, externally test it in OnSIDES using side effects reported from drug labels and then generate a SE-GPS for 19,422 protein coding genes and 502 phecodes, of which 1.7% had a SE-GPS > 0. To consider drug mechanism, we incorporated the direction of genetic effect into a directional version of the score called the SE-GPS-DOE. We observe that restricting to at least two lines of genetic evidence conferred a 2.3- and 2.5-fold increased risk in side effects in Open Targets and OnSIDES respectively, with increased enrichments in severe drugs. We make all predictions publicly available in a web portal. Here the authors develop a genetic priority score to predict side effects by integrating multiple lines of genetic evidence. By applying this score, they provide evidence of known side effects and suggest ones with no clinical trial evidence.