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At war with the weather
The United States and other nations are facing large-scale risks at an accelerating rhythm. In 2005, three major hurricanes--Katrina, Rita, and Wilma--made landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast within a six-week period. The damage caused by these storms led to insurance reimbursements and federal disaster relief of more than $180 billion--a record sum. Today we are more vulnerable to catastrophic losses because of the increasing concentration of population and activities in high-risk coastal regions of the country. The question is not whether but when, and how frequently, future catastrophes will strike and the extent of damages they will cause. Who should pay the costs associated with catastrophic losses suffered by homeowners in hazard-prone areas? In At War with the Weather, Howard Kunreuther and Erwann Michel-Kerjan with their colleagues deliver a groundbreaking analysis of how we currently mitigate, insure against, and finance recovery from natural disasters in the United States. They offer innovative, long-term solutions for reducing losses and providing financial support for disaster victims that define a coherent strategy to assure sustainable recovery from future large-scale disasters. The amount of data collected and analyzed and innovations proposed make this the most comprehensive book written on these critical issues in the past thirty years.
eBook
The Known, the Unknown, and the Unknowable in Financial Risk Management
A clear understanding of what we know, don't know, and can't know should guide any reasonable approach to managing financial risk, yet the most widely used measure in finance today--Value at Risk, or VaR--reduces these risks to a single number, creating a false sense of security among risk managers, executives, and regulators. This book introduces a more realistic and holistic framework calledKuU--theKnown, theunknown, and theUnknowable--that enables one to conceptualize the different kinds of financial risks and design effective strategies for managing them. Bringing together contributions by leaders in finance and economics, this book pushes toward robustifying policies, portfolios, contracts, and organizations to a wide variety ofKuUrisks. Along the way, the strengths andlimitationsof \"quantitative\" risk management are revealed.
In addition to the editors, the contributors are Ashok Bardhan, Dan Borge, Charles N. Bralver, Riccardo Colacito, Robert H. Edelstein, Robert F. Engle, Charles A. E. Goodhart, Clive W. J. Granger, Paul R. Kleindorfer, Donald L. Kohn, Howard Kunreuther, Andrew Kuritzkes, Robert H. Litzenberger, Benoit B. Mandelbrot, David M. Modest, Alex Muermann, Mark V. Pauly, Til Schuermann, Kenneth E. Scott, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and Richard J. Zeckhauser.
Introduces a new risk-management paradigmFeatures contributions by leaders in finance and economicsDemonstrates how \"killer risks\" are often more economic than statistical, and crucially linked to incentivesShows how to invest and design policies amid financial uncertainty
eBook
Medical and Physician Assistant Student Competence in Basic Life Support: Opportunities to Improve Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Training
Medical and physician assistant (PA) students are often required to have Basic Life Support (BLS) education prior to engaging in patient care. Given the potential role of students in resuscitations, it is imperative to ensure that current BLS training prepares students to provide effective cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). The objective of this study was to assess whether current BLS training produces student providers who can deliver BLS in an American Heart Association (AHA) guideline-adherent manner.
Students at a US medical school were recruited by convenience sampling. BLS performance immediately following a standard AHA BLS training course was evaluated during a two-minute CPR cycle using manikins. We also collected information on demographics, previous BLS training attendance, perceived comfort in providing CPR, and prior experiences in healthcare and providing or observing CPR.
Among 80 participants, we found that compression rate, depth, and inter-compression recoil were AHA guideline-adherent for 90.0%, 68.8%, and 79.3% of total compression time, respectively. Mean hands-off time was also within AHA guidelines. Mean number of unsuccessful ventilations per cycle was 2.2. Additionally, 44.3% of ventilations delivered were of adequate tidal volume, 12.2% were excessive, and 41.0% were inadequate. Past BLS course attendance, prior healthcare certification, and previous provision of real-life CPR were associated with improved performance.
Following BLS training, medical and PA students met a majority of AHA compressions guidelines, but not ventilations guidelines, for over 70% of CPR cycles. Maintaining compression depth and providing appropriate ventilation volumes represent areas of improvement. Conducting regular practice and involving students in real-life CPR may improve performance.
Journal Article
The Economics of Insurance Intermediaries
This article analyzes the economic functions of independent insurance intermediaries (brokers and independent agents), focusing on the commercial property-casualty insurance market. The article investigates the functions performed by intermediaries, the competitiveness of the market, the compensation arrangements for intermediaries, and the process by which policies are placed with insurers. Insurance intermediaries are essentially market makers who match the insurance needs of policyholders with insurers who have the capability of meeting those needs. Intermediary compensation comprises premium-based commissions, expressed as a percentage of the premium paid, and contingent commissions based on the profitability, persistency, and/or volume of the business placed with the insurer. Empirical evidence is provided that premium-based and contingent commissions are passed on to policyholders in the premium. However, contingent commissions can enhance competitive bidding by aligning the insurer's and the intermediary's interests. This alignment of interests gives insurers more confidence in the selection of risks and thus helps to break the \"winner's curse\" and encourages insurers to bid more aggressively. Independent intermediaries also help markets operate more efficiently by reducing the information asymmetries between insurers and buyers that can cause adverse selection.
Journal Article
Rational Insurance Purchasing: Consideration of Contract Nonperformance
The purchase of an insurance policy under conditions of default risk was examined. To capture the essence of prospective default on rational insurance purchasing, a simple 4-state world was postulated. The default risk alters the insurance product and causes changes in the demand for insurance. But an increase in the probability of insolvency does not necessarily lessen the demand for insurance. The representative consumer only was considered and was viewed as a price taker. The collective risk an insurer faces depends partly on the demand generated by a society of such consumers. Also considered was how the presence of default risk affects results in the insurance literature.
Journal Article
Moral Hazard, Basis Risk, and Gap Insurance
This article addresses the trade-off between moral hazard and basis risk. A decision maker, e.g., a primary insurer, is considered who can purchase an index hedge and a (re)insurance contract that covers the gap between actual losses and the index-linked payout, or part of this gap. The results suggest that combining insurance with an index hedge may extend the possibility set and by that means lead to efficiency gains. Naturally, the results depend heavily on the transaction costs associated with both instruments. In particular, the authors show that if the index product is without transaction costs, at least some index-linked coverage is always purchased, so long as there is positive correlation between the index and the actual losses. So under these circumstances, there is in any case a benefit from the availability of index products. Furthermore, it is shown that the index hedge would always be supplemented by a positive amount of gap insurance.
Journal Article
Adverse Selection, Commitment, and Renegotiation: Extension to and Evidence from Insurance Markets
With asymmetric information, full commitment to long-term contracts may permit markets to approach first-best allocations. However, commitment can be undermined by opportunistic behavior, notably renegotiation. We reexamine commitment in insurance markets. We present an alternative model (which extends Laffont and Tirole's procurement model to address uncertainty and competition), which involves semipooling in the first period followed by separation. This and competing models (e.g., single-period models and no-commitment models) have different predictions concerning temporal patterns of insurer profitability. A test using California data suggests that some automobile insurers use commitment to attract selective portfolios comprising disproportionate numbers of low risks.
Journal Article
At war with the weather : managing large-scale risks in a new era of catastrophes / Howard C. Kunreuther and Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan with Neil A. Doherty and others
The United States and other nations are facing large-scale risks at an accelerating pace. In 2005, three major hurricanes - Katrina, Rita, and Wilma - made landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast within an eight-week period. The damage caused by these storms led to insurance reimbursements and federal disaster relief of more than $180 billion - a record sum. Today we are more vulnerable to catastrophic losses because of the increasing concentration of population and activities in high-risk coastal regions of the country. The question is not whether but when future catastrophes will strike. Who should pay the costs associated with catastrophic losses suffered by homeowners in hazard-prone areas? In At War with the Weather, Howard Kunreuther and Erwann Michel-Kerjan and their colleagues deliver a groundbreaking analysis of how we currently mitigate, insure against, and finance recovery from natural disasters in the United States. They offer innovative, long-term solutions for reducing losses and providing financial support for disaster victims that define a coherent strategy to assure sustainable recovery from future large-scale disasters. The amount of data collected and analyzed and innovations proposed make this the most comprehensive book written on these critical issues in the past thirty years.
eBook