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169 result(s) for "Doherty, Sarah J"
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Light-absorbing Particles in Snow and Ice: Measurement and Modeling of Climatic and Hydrological impact
Light absorbing particles(LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust) influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance(a.k.a., surface darkening), which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice(LAPSI) has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g.in the fourth and fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, and climatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle.
Modeled and observed properties related to the direct aerosol radiative effect of biomass burning aerosol over the southeastern Atlantic
Biomass burning smoke is advected over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean between July and October of each year. This smoke plume overlies and mixes into a region of persistent low marine clouds. Model calculations of climate forcing by this plume vary significantly in both magnitude and sign. NASA EVS-2 (Earth Venture Suborbital-2) ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) had deployments for field campaigns off the west coast of Africa in 3 consecutive years (September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018) with the goal of better characterizing this plume as a function of the monthly evolution by measuring the parameters necessary to calculate the direct aerosol radiative effect. Here, this dataset and satellite retrievals of cloud properties are used to test the representation of the smoke plume and the underlying cloud layer in two regional models (WRF-CAM5 and CNRM-ALADIN) and two global models (GEOS and UM-UKCA). The focus is on the comparisons of those aerosol and cloud properties that are the primary determinants of the direct aerosol radiative effect and on the vertical distribution of the plume and its properties. The representativeness of the observations to monthly averages are tested for each field campaign, with the sampled mean aerosol light extinction generally found to be within 20 % of the monthly mean at plume altitudes. When compared to the observations, in all models, the simulated plume is too vertically diffuse and has smaller vertical gradients, and in two of the models (GEOS and UM-UKCA), the plume core is displaced lower than in the observations. Plume carbon monoxide, black carbon, and organic aerosol masses indicate underestimates in modeled plume concentrations, leading, in general, to underestimates in mid-visible aerosol extinction and optical depth. Biases in mid-visible single scatter albedo are both positive and negative across the models. Observed vertical gradients in single scatter albedo are not captured by the models, but the models do capture the coarse temporal evolution, correctly simulating higher values in October (2018) than in August (2017) and September (2016). Uncertainties in the measured absorption Ångstrom exponent were large but propagate into a negligible (<4 %) uncertainty in integrated solar absorption by the aerosol and, therefore, in the aerosol direct radiative effect. Model biases in cloud fraction, and, therefore, the scene albedo below the plume, vary significantly across the four models. The optical thickness of clouds is, on average, well simulated in the WRF-CAM5 and ALADIN models in the stratocumulus region and is underestimated in the GEOS model; UM-UKCA simulates cloud optical thickness that is significantly too high. Overall, the study demonstrates the utility of repeated, semi-random sampling across multiple years that can give insights into model biases and how these biases affect modeled climate forcing. The combined impact of these aerosol and cloud biases on the direct aerosol radiative effect (DARE) is estimated using a first-order approximation for a subset of five comparison grid boxes. A significant finding is that the observed grid box average aerosol and cloud properties yield a positive (warming) aerosol direct radiative effect for all five grid boxes, whereas DARE using the grid-box-averaged modeled properties ranges from much larger positive values to small, negative values. It is shown quantitatively how model biases can offset each other, so that model improvements that reduce biases in only one property (e.g., single scatter albedo but not cloud fraction) would lead to even greater biases in DARE. Across the models, biases in aerosol extinction and in cloud fraction and optical depth contribute the largest biases in DARE, with aerosol single scatter albedo also making a significant contribution.
Reduced aerosol pollution diminished cloud reflectivity over the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific
Over the past several decades, the proportion of solar radiation reflected back into space has declined, accelerating the accumulation of heat within the Earth system. Here we show that the marine cloud reflectivity decreased on average by 2.8 ± 1.2% per decade in the combined North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific regions between 2003 and 2022. The majority of the Earth System Models we analyzed simulated a significantly weaker cloud reflectivity decrease and warming of the sea surface in these regions than observed. In contrast, our simulations using an improved aerosol-climate model reproduce the spatial extent and magnitude of the observed cloud reflectivity decrease. We show that reductions in sulfur dioxide and other aerosol precursors accounted for 69% (range 55−85%) of the cloud reflectivity decrease through aerosol-cloud interactions, consistent with the observed aerosol and cloud trends. This raises the prospect of a continuing cloud reflectivity decrease and an associated warming impact in these regions, given that the emission reductions are projected to persist over the next few decades. Further research is needed to assess whether near-term climate scenarios should be revised to account for the weak cloud reflectivity reductions in the Earth System Models. Marine cloud reflectivity declined by 2.8%/decade (2003-2022) over the NE Pacific and North Atlantic, enhancing shortwave absorption beyond climate model projections. Here, the authors use an improved aerosol-climate model and show that aerosol reductions may account for 69% of the cloud reflectivity decline.
Sources of light-absorbing aerosol in arctic snow and their seasonal variation
Two data sets consisting of measurements of light absorbing aerosols (LAA) in arctic snow together with suites of other corresponding chemical constituents are presented; the first from Siberia, Greenland and near the North Pole obtained in 2008, and the second from the Canadian arctic obtained in 2009. A preliminary differentiation of the LAA into black carbon (BC) and non-BC LAA is done. Source attribution of the light absorbing aerosols was done using a positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. Four sources were found for each data set (crop and grass burning, boreal biomass burning, pollution and marine). For both data sets, the crops and grass biomass burning was the main source of both LAA species, suggesting the non-BC LAA was brown carbon. Depth profiles at most of the sites allowed assessment of the seasonal variation in the source strengths. The biomass burning sources dominated in the spring but pollution played a more significant (though rarely dominant) role in the fall, winter and, for Greenland, summer. The PMF analysis is consistent with trajectory analysis and satellite fire maps.
Key Gaps in Models' Physical Representation of Climate Intervention and Its Impacts
Solar radiation modification (SRM) is increasingly discussed as a potential method to ameliorate some negative effects of climate change. However, unquantified uncertainties in physical and environmental impacts of SRM impede informed debate and decision making. Some uncertainties are due to lack of understanding of processes determining atmospheric effects of SRM and/or a lag in development of their representation in models, meaning even high‐quality model intercomparisons will not necessarily reveal or address them. Although climate models at multiple scales are advancing in complexity, there are specific areas of uncertainty where additional model development (often requiring new observations) could significantly advance understanding of SRM's effects, and improve our ability to assess and weigh potential risks against those of choosing to not use SRM. We convene expert panels in the areas of atmospheric science most critical to understanding the three most widely discussed forms of SRM. Each identifies three key modeling gaps relevant to either stratospheric aerosols, cirrus, or low‐altitude marine clouds. Within each area, key challenges remain in capturing impacts due to complex interactions in aerosol physics, atmospheric chemistry/dynamics, and aerosol‐cloud interactions. Across all three, in addition to arguing for more observations, the panels argue that model development work to either leverage different capabilities of existing models, bridge scales across which relevant processes operate, or address known modeling gaps could advance understanding. By focusing on these knowledge gaps we believe the modeling community could advance understanding of SRM's physical risks and potential benefits, allowing better‐informed decision‐making about whether and how to use SRM. Plain Language Summary Solar radiation modification has been suggested as a potential method to reduce climate warming and its associated impacts, with three different types the subject of most research: stratospheric aerosol injection; marine cloud brightening; and cirrus cloud thinning. However, while modeling studies suggest some such methods could be effective, key challenges remain in accurately simulating their impacts due to complex interactions in aerosol physics, atmospheric chemistry, atmospheric dynamics, and aerosol‐cloud interactions that are inherent to the three SRM methods. We highlight critical research gaps that must be addressed to improve solar radiation modification modeling, including uncertainties in aerosol‐cloud interactions, aerosol microphysics, and their global effects. These gaps, identified by expert panels through the Geoengineering Modeling Research Consortium, emphasize the need for more detailed laboratory and field studies, along with improved models at multiple scales. We specifically outline where additional fundamental research is needed to support decision making around SRM, which will inevitably be made under uncertainty. Key Points Agreement across models in the physical responses to solar radiation modification may not reflect high accuracy We identify nine key knowledge/modeling gaps where advances would improve understanding of solar radiation modification's physical impacts More observations are needed to constrain atmospheric processes uniquely affected by implementation of solar radiation modification
Investigation of Ship‐Induced Mesoscale Circulation Mechanics and Aerosol Plume Spreading Rates
Aerosol plumes emitted from ships can cause brightening of low clouds. The aerosol plume spreading rate controls what fraction of the cloud may experience brightening. Developing a deeper physical understanding of the mechanisms driving variations in spreading rate could inform the development of plume‐spreading parameterizations in global climate models, which may be relevant for assessing the feasibility of Marine Cloud Brightening. In this study, we employ large‐eddy simulations of two idealized precipitating stratocumulus cases to investigate the roles of collision‐coalescence, cloud droplet sedimentation, and droplet effective radius in the ship track and quantify their individual and combined effects on plume buoyancy anomalies and spreading rates. Our results indicate that cloud droplet sedimentation and collision‐coalescence are the primary mechanisms controlling buoyancy and horizontal spreading, whereas the influence of effective radius is negligible. Sensitivity tests indicate that mesoscale circulations can develop within the ship track even in the absence of precipitation suppression.
Building a comprehensive library of observed Lagrangian trajectories for testing modeled cloud evolution, aerosol–cloud interactions, and marine cloud brightening
As the evolution of marine low clouds is sensitive to the current state of the atmosphere and varying meteorological forcing, it is crucial to ascertain how cloud responses differ across a spectrum of those conditions. In this study, we introduce an innovative approach to encompass a wide array of conditions prevalent in low marine cloud regions by creating a comprehensive library of observed environmental conditions. Using reanalysis and satellite data, over 2200 Lagrangian trajectories are generated within the stratocumulus deck region of the Northeast Pacific during summer 2018–2021. By using eight important cloud-controlling factors (CCFs), we employ principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality of data. This technique demonstrates that two principal components capture 43 % of the variability among CCFs. Notably, PCA facilitates the selection of a reduced number of trajectories (e.g., 54) that represent a diverse array of the observed CCF, aerosol, and cloud variability and co-variability. These trajectories can then be used for process model studies, e.g., with large-eddy simulations (LES), to evaluate the efficacy of marine cloud brightening. Two distinct cases are selected to initiate 2 d long, high-resolution, large-domain LES experiments. The results highlight the ability of our LES to simulate observed conditions. Although perturbed aerosols delay cloud breakup and enhance the cloud radiative effect, the strength of such effects is sensitive to “precipitation-aerosol feedback”. The first case is precipitating and shows the potential for “precipitation-driven” cloud breakup due to positive precipitation-aerosol feedback. The second case is non-precipitating with classic cloud breakup of the “deepening-warming” type, highlighting the impact of entrainment.
Microphysical, macrophysical, and radiative responses of subtropical marine clouds to aerosol injections
Ship tracks in subtropical marine low clouds are simulated and investigated using large-eddy simulations. Five variants of a shallow subtropical stratocumulus-topped marine boundary layer (MBL) are chosen to span a range of background aerosol concentrations and variations in free-tropospheric moisture. Idealized time-invariant meteorological forcings and approximately steady-state aerosol concentrations constitute the background conditions. We investigate processes controlling cloud microphysical, macrophysical, and radiative responses to aerosol injections. For the analysis, we use novel methods to decompose the liquid water path (LWP) adjustment into changes in cloud and boundary-layer properties and to decompose the cloud radiative effect (CRE) into contributions from cloud macro- and microphysics. The key results are that (a) the cloud-top entrainment rate increases in all cases, with stronger increases for thicker than thinner clouds; (b) the drying and warming induced by increased entrainment is offset to differing degrees by corresponding responses in surface fluxes, precipitation, and radiation; (c) MBL turbulence responds to changes caused by the aerosol perturbation, and this significantly affects cloud macrophysics; (d) across 2 d of simulation, clouds were brightened in all cases. In a pristine MBL, significant drizzle suppression by aerosol injections results not only in greater water retention but also in turbulence intensification, leading to a significant increase in cloud amount. In this case, Twomey brightening is strongly augmented by an increase in cloud thickness and cover. In addition, a reduction in the loss of aerosol through coalescence scavenging more than offsets the entrainment dilution. This interplay precludes estimation of the lifetime of the aerosol perturbation. The combined responses of cloud macro- and microphysics lead to 10–100 times more effective cloud brightening in these cases relative to those in the non-precipitating MBL cases. In moderate and polluted MBLs, entrainment enhancement makes the boundary layer drier, warmer, and more stratified, leading to a decrease in cloud thickness. This LWP response offsets the greatest fraction of the Twomey brightening in a moderately moist free troposphere. This finding differs from previous studies that found larger offsets in a drier free troposphere, and it results from a greater entrainment enhancement of initially thicker clouds, so the offsetting effects are weaker. The injected aerosol lifetime in cases with polluted MBLs is estimated to be 2–3 d, which is much longer than estimates of typical ship track lifetimes from satellite images.
An overview of the ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) project: aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions in the southeast Atlantic basin
Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earth’s biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles, yet the fate of these particles and their influence on regional and global climate is poorly understood. ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) is a 5-year NASA EVS-2 (Earth Venture Suborbital-2) investigation with three intensive observation periods designed to study key atmospheric processes that determine the climate impacts of these aerosols. During the Southern Hemisphere winter and spring (June–October), aerosol particles reaching 3–5 km in altitude are transported westward over the southeast Atlantic, where they interact with one of the largest subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The representation of these interactions in climate models remains highly uncertain in part due to a scarcity of observational constraints on aerosol and cloud properties, as well as due to the parameterized treatment of physical processes. Three ORACLES deployments by the NASA P-3 aircraft in September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018 (totaling ~ 350 science flight hours), augmented by the deployment of the NASA ER-2 aircraft for remote sensing in September 2016 (totaling ~ 100 science flight hours), were intended to help fill this observational gap. ORACLES focuses on three fundamental science themes centered on the climate effects of African BB aerosols: (a) direct aerosol radiative effects, (b) effects of aerosol absorption on atmospheric circulation and clouds, and (c) aerosol–cloud microphysical interactions. This paper summarizes the ORACLES science objectives, describes the project implementation, provides an overview of the flights and measurements in each deployment, and highlights the integrative modeling efforts from cloud to global scales to address science objectives. Significant new findings on the vertical structure of BB aerosol physical and chemical properties, chemical aging, cloud condensation nuclei, rain and precipitation statistics, and aerosol indirect effects are emphasized, but their detailed descriptions are the subject of separate publications. The main purpose of this paper is to familiarize the broader scientific community with the ORACLES project and the dataset it produced.