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The Eurasian subtropical westerly jet (ESWJ) is a major feature of the summertime atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we demonstrate a robust weakening trend in the summer ESWJ over the last four decades, linked to significant impacts on extreme weather. Analysis of climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) suggests that anthropogenic aerosols were likely the primary driver of the weakening ESWJ. Warming over mid-high latitudes due to aerosol reductions in Europe, and cooling in the tropics and subtropics due to aerosol increases over South and East Asia acted to reduce the meridional temperature gradient at the surface and in the lower and middle troposphere, leading to reduced vertical shear of the zonal wind and a weaker ESWJ in the upper troposphere. If, as expected, Asian anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions decline in future, our results imply a renewed strengthening of the summer ESWJ. This study presents evidence that a major feature of the northern hemisphere summertime circulation, the Eurasian subtropical westerly jet (ESWJ), weakened significantly in recent decades, and that this weakening was caused by changes in anthropogenic aerosols.

Higher atmospheric greenhouse gases are shown to have driven the recovery of Sahelian rainfall since the 1980s. This study discounts the role of sea surface temperature changes that had previously been jointly credited as drivers of the recovery. Sahelian summer rainfall, controlled by the West African monsoon, exhibited large-amplitude multidecadal variability during the twentieth century. Particularly important was the severe drought of the 1970s and 1980s, which had widespread impacts 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 . Research into the causes of this drought has identified anthropogenic aerosol forcing 3 , 4 , 7 and changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs; refs  1 , 2 , 6 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 ) as the most important drivers. Since the 1980s, there has been some recovery of Sahel rainfall amounts 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , although not to the pre-drought levels of the 1940s and 1950s. Here we report on experiments with the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art global climate model to identify the causes of this recovery. Our results suggest that the direct influence of higher levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere was the main cause, with an additional role for changes in anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions. We find that recent changes in SSTs, although substantial, did not have a significant impact on the recovery. The simulated response to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas and aerosol forcing is consistent with a multivariate fingerprint of the observed recovery, raising confidence in our findings. Although robust predictions are not yet possible, our results suggest that the recent recovery in Sahel rainfall amounts is most likely to be sustained or amplified in the near term.

This study investigates the near-term future changes of temperature extremes in summer (June–August) and winter (December–February) seasons over mainland China in the mid-twenty-first century (FP; 2045–2055) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario relative to the present day (PD; 1994–2011) by using an atmosphere–ocean-mixed-layer coupled model MetUM-GOML1. The projected changes in hot extremes exhibit a rise in hottest day temperature (TXx) and warmest night temperature (TNx) and an increase in frequencies of summer days (SU) and tropical nights (TR). The projected changes in cold extremes show a rise in coldest day temperature (TXn) and coldest night temperature (TNn) and a decrease in frequencies of ice days (ID) and frost days (FD). The projected changes in temperature extremes in both seasons are primarily determined by changes in seasonal mean daily maximum and minimum temperature while changes in temperature variability from daily to sub-seasonal time scales play a minor role. The future changes in temperature extremes over China, being consistent with the rise in seasonal temperature, are partly due to the increase in surface downward clear sky longwave radiation through the increased greenhouse gas concentrations and enhanced water vapor in the atmosphere, and partly due to the increase in net surface shortwave radiation as a result of the decreased aerosol emissions over Asia via aerosol-radiation interactions. Moreover, the seasonal mean surface warming can further be amplified with positive feedbacks by reducing the cloud cover, leading to positive changes in shortwave radiative effect through aerosol-cloud interactions and surface-atmosphere feedbacks during summer, and by positive changes in surface clear sky shortwave radiation through snow-albedo feedbacks over northern China and southwestern China during winter.

The Atlantic Ocean has been suggested as an important driver of variability in European climate on decadal timescales. Analyses of ocean and atmosphere temperature data from observations suggest that the shift in European climate during the 1990s was a result of warming in the North Atlantic Ocean. European climate exhibits variability on a wide range of timescales. Understanding the nature and drivers of this variability is an essential step in developing robust climate predictions and risk assessments. The Atlantic Ocean has been suggested as an important driver of variability in European climate on decadal timescales 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , but the importance of this influence in recent decades has been unclear, partly because of difficulties in separating the influence of the Atlantic Ocean from other contributions, for example, from the tropical Pacific Ocean and the stratosphere 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 . Here we analyse four data sets derived from observations to show that, during the 1990s, there was a substantial shift in European climate towards a pattern characterized by anomalously wet summers in northern Europe, and hot, dry, summers in southern Europe, with related shifts in spring and autumn. These changes in climate coincided with a substantial warming of the North Atlantic Ocean 13 , towards a state last seen in the 1950s. The patterns of European climate change in the 1990s are consistent with earlier changes attributed to the influence of the North Atlantic Ocean 4 , 6 and provide compelling evidence that the Atlantic Ocean was the key driver. Our results suggest that the recent pattern of anomalies in European climate will persist as long as the North Atlantic Ocean remains anomalously warm.

Based on outputs of 28 coupled models from the Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we show that the response of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon to the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during post‐ENSO summer will likely strengthen in a warmer climate, which can be attributed to concurrently weakened sea‐surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP). The weakened WEP SSTAs are primarily caused by enhanced latent heat damping due to increased surface wind speed anomalies, which are associated with the eastward shift of the El Niño‐induced anomalous Walker circulation due to El Niño‐like sea surface temperature change in the tropical Pacific under global warming. Besides, the climatological zonal ocean currents will slow down due to the weakening of climatological Walker circulation, which also acts to weaken the WEP SSTAs via reducing the advection of anomalous temperature by the mean current. Plain Language Summary As an important component of the Asian monsoon system, the Southeast Asian summer monsoon (SEASM) is crucial for the livelihoods of billions of people in East Asia, and is closely connected to a climate phenomenon called El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Understanding how the relationship between SEASM and ENSO will change in the future is important for enhancing our knowledge of climate change in East Asia. Outputs of 28 climate models from the Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project show that ENSO will exert enhanced impacts on the SEASM in a warmer climate. The enhanced influences of ENSO on the monsoon will exacerbate the reduction of rainfall over the western North Pacific during the post‐El Niño summer. We find that such projected changes are mainly caused by weakened warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (SSTAs) in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP). Further analyses indicate that the change in WEP SSTAs can be linked to the El Niño‐like change in climatological SSTs in the tropical Pacific. This study depicts detailed physical processes responsible for the projected changes in ENSO's impacts on the SEASM. Key Points The effects of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation on the Southeast Asian summer monsoon will strengthen under global warming The enhanced El Niño's impacts result from the weakened warm sea‐surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) The weakened WEP SST anomalies are related to the eastward shift of anomalous Walker circulation and the slackened mean zonal ocean currents

Midlatitude Europe (ME) emerges as a prominent heatwave hotspot with rapid increases in summer surface air temperature and heatwave days since 1979, surpassing the global land averages by approximately 2.6 and 2.3 times, respectively. The circulation analogs‐based dynamic adjustment reveals that approximately 38% and 35% of these trends result from shifts in zonal dipolar circulation patterns over the North Atlantic (NA) and Europe, crucial for the enhanced warming compared to the global land average. The circulation changes are associated with warming sea surface temperatures in the NA. This warming pattern resembles the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and is predominantly induced by greenhouse gases. Moreover, the stronger air temperature response in ME to decreased aerosols amplifies warming, contributing to the rapid increase in heatwave frequency. These findings highlight a prominent influence of anthropogenic forcings on the swift surge of European heatwaves compared to global land, with a potential implication for adaptation strategies and risk management. Plain Language Summary Midlatitude Europe is experiencing a significant increase in heatwaves, with summer temperatures and heatwave occurrences rising much faster than the global land averages since 1979. One of the key contributors to this rapid warming is the changes in zonal dipolar circulation patterns over the NA and Europe, which are linked to the warm sea surface temperatures in the NA. This warming pattern, resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, is largely caused by greenhouse gases and additionally influenced by reduced aerosols and natural forcing. Furthermore, the stronger response of air temperatures in midlatitude Europe to decreased aerosol emissions intensifies summer warming, contributing to a rapid increase in heatwave days. These findings highlight the significant impact of anthropogenic forcings on the observed surge of heatwaves in Europe compared to global land, with an important implication for developing strategies to adapt to these changing climate conditions and managing the associated risks. Key Points Midlatitude Europe exhibits more rapid increases in summer heatwave frequency than the global land averages in recent decades Atmospheric circulation changes contributing about one third of the observed warming trend, further intensify the rapid increases in summer heatwave frequency Local air temperature response to reduced aerosol emissions contributes about half of the enhanced warming compared to the global land average

This study identifies the relationship between tropical southern Atlantic (TSA) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and focuses on how the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) modulates this relationship. Results suggest a significant but non‐stationary interannual TSA‐ENSO relationship which undergoes a significant decadal shift. A strong TSA‐ENSO relationship is observed during the positive PDO phase, while this relationship is weak during the negative PDO phase. Two processes, involving the anomalous Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) and the intensity of air‐sea interactions over the Pacific, are proposed for this decadal shift. During the positive PDO phase, the weak and variable PWC and strong air‐sea interaction facilitate the development of SSTA in the tropical Pacific triggered by TSA SSTA, resulting in a strong TSA‐ENSO relationship and vice versa. These findings emphasize the important role of the modulation of PDO on the TSA‐ENSO relationship. Plain Language Summary The present study finds a significant TSA‐ENSO relationship that anomalous warm (cold) TSA sea surface temperature (SST) in the preceding winter is closely linked to the cold (warm) ENSO in the subsequent summer and winter. However, the TSA‐ENSO interannual relationship is non‐stationary, which is strong during the positive PDO phase and weak during the negative PDO phase. Two processes responsible for this non‐stationary relationship are proposed. During the positive PDO phase, the weak and variable PWC is more susceptible to the TSA forcing, resulting in a strong TSA‐ENSO relationship. Meanwhile, the strong air‐sea interaction in the tropical Pacific also facilitates the development of SSTA triggered by TSA SSTA, leading to a strong and robust TSA‐ENSO relationship. During the negative PDO phase, the situations of PWC and air‐sea interaction are opposite and thus lead to a weak TSA‐ENSO relationship. These findings could help to improve our understanding of the decadal variability of the ENSO evolution. Key Points The relationship between tropical southern Atlantic (TSA) SST and subsequent El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is stronger in positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) than in negative PDO In positive PDO, the TSA SST anomaly easily exerts an impact on ENSO because of a weaker and more variable Walker circulation In positive PDO, the stronger air‐sea interaction over the tropical Pacific facilitates the maintenance of local SST and wind anomalies

Changes in monsoon precipitation have profound social and economic impacts as more than two-thirds of the world’s population lives in monsoon regions. Observations show a significant reduction in global land monsoon precipitation during the second half of the 20th century. Understanding the cause of this change, especially possible anthropogenic origins, is important. Here, we compare observed changes in global land monsoon precipitation during 1948–2005 with those simulated by 5 global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project-phase 5 (CMIP5) under different external forcings. We show that the observed drying trend is consistent with the model simulated response to anthropogenic forcing and to anthropogenic aerosol forcing in particular. We apply the optimal fingerprinting method to quantify anthropogenic influences on precipitation and find that anthropogenic aerosols may have contributed to 102% (62–144% for the 5–95% confidence interval) of the observed decrease in global land monsoon precipitation. A moisture budget analysis indicates that the reduction in precipitation results from reduced vertical moisture advection in response to aerosol forcing. Since much of the monsoon regions, such as India and China, have been experiencing rapid developments with increasing aerosol emissions in the past decedes, our results imply a further reduction in monsoon precipitation in these regions in the future if effective mitigations to reduce aerosol emissions are not deployed. The observed decline of aerosol emission in China since 2006 helps to alleviate the reducing trend of monsoon precipiptaion.

This study examines the performance of 52 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in capturing the effects of the Indian summer monsoon on the evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ISM’s impacts on ENSO show a substantial diversity among the models. While some models simulate the strength of the impacts comparable to observations, others represent much weaker influences. Results indicate that the diversity is highly related to inter-model spread in interannual variability of ISM rainfall (ISMR) among the models. Models with a larger ISMR variability simulate stronger ISM-induced anomalies in precipitation and atmospheric circulation over the western North Pacific during the monsoon season. As a result, these models exhibit larger wind anomalies induced by monsoon on the south flank of the anomalous circulation in the western Pacific, thereby influencing subsequent ENSO evolution more significantly by causing stronger air-sea coupling processes over the tropical Pacific.

The frequently observed tropospheric warm cores over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are unique climate phenomena and are crucial to the Asian summer monsoon development. However, their climatological structure and formation mechanisms remain elusive and inconsistent among previous studies. In this work, two vertically separated warm cores, the upper-level warm cores (ULWCs) and lower-level warm cores (LLWCs), are identified based on the zonal temperature deviation. The LLWCs are basically confined below 450 hPa, and the ULWCs are mostly observed at 200–400 hPa. The active region of the LLWCs is generally within the TP domain and characterized by regional patches with high frequency occurrences. In contrast, the active region of the ULWCs is featured by a zonally elongated band along the southern TP. The physical mechanisms for the formations of these two distinct types of warm cores are revealed: the LLWCs are mainly generated and maintained by the surface diabatic heating, while the ULWCs are dominated by the large-scale circulation associated with the convection over the Indo-Pacific warm pool. During March–June, the ULWCs within the TP domain occur most frequently and the intensities attain their maxima. In March–April, the ULWCs are mainly determined by the TP adiabatic subsidence induced by the convection over the Indo-Pacific warm pool. In May–June, the warm advection induced by westerlies generates the downstream ULWCs and enhances the ULWCs formed in previous months. Hence it might be inappropriate in traditional view to attribute the tropospheric warm cores around the TP solely to the direct thermal effect of the elevated topography.