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Trials of monoclonal antibodies that target various forms of amyloid at different stages of Alzheimer's disease have had mixed results. We tested solanezumab, which targets monomeric amyloid, in a phase 3 trial involving persons with preclinical Alzheimer's disease. Persons 65 to 85 years of age with a global Clinical Dementia Rating score of 0 (range, 0 to 3, with 0 indicating no cognitive impairment and 3 severe dementia), a score on the Mini-Mental State Examination of 25 or more (range, 0 to 30, with lower scores indicating poorer cognition), and elevated brain amyloid levels on F-florbetapir positron-emission tomography (PET) were enrolled. Participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive solanezumab at a dose of up to 1600 mg intravenously every 4 weeks or placebo. The primary end point was the change in the Preclinical Alzheimer Cognitive Composite (PACC) score (calculated as the sum of four z scores, with higher scores indicating better cognitive performance) over a period of 240 weeks. A total of 1169 persons underwent randomization: 578 were assigned to the solanezumab group and 591 to the placebo group. The mean age of the participants was 72 years, approximately 60% were women, and 75% had a family history of dementia. At 240 weeks, the mean change in PACC score was -1.43 in the solanezumab group and -1.13 in the placebo group (difference, -0.30; 95% confidence interval, -0.82 to 0.22; P = 0.26). Amyloid levels on brain PET increased by a mean of 11.6 centiloids in the solanezumab group and 19.3 centiloids in the placebo group. Amyloid-related imaging abnormalities (ARIA) with edema occurred in less than 1% of the participants in each group. ARIA with microhemorrhage or hemosiderosis occurred in 29.2% of the participants in the solanezumab group and 32.8% of those in the placebo group. Solanezumab, which targets monomeric amyloid in persons with elevated brain amyloid levels, did not slow cognitive decline as compared with placebo over a period of 240 weeks in persons with preclinical Alzheimer's disease. (Funded by the National Institute on Aging and others; A4 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02008357.).

Monoclonal antibodies that target amyloid-beta (Aβ) have the potential to slow cognitive and functional decline in persons with early Alzheimer's disease. Gantenerumab is a subcutaneously administered, fully human, anti-Aβ IgG1 monoclonal antibody with highest affinity for aggregated Aβ that has been tested for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease. We conducted two phase 3 trials (GRADUATE I and II) involving participants 50 to 90 years of age with mild cognitive impairment or mild dementia due to Alzheimer's disease and evidence of amyloid plaques on positron-emission tomography (PET) or cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) testing. Participants were randomly assigned to receive gantenerumab or placebo every 2 weeks. The primary outcome was the change from baseline in the score on the Clinical Dementia Rating scale-Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB; range, 0 to 18, with higher scores indicating greater cognitive impairment) at week 116. A total of 985 and 980 participants were enrolled in the GRADUATE I and II trials, respectively. The baseline CDR-SB score was 3.7 in the GRADUATE I trial and 3.6 in the GRADUATE II trial. The change from baseline in the CDR-SB score at week 116 was 3.35 with gantenerumab and 3.65 with placebo in the GRADUATE I trial (difference, -0.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.66 to 0.05; P = 0.10) and was 2.82 with gantenerumab and 3.01 with placebo in the GRADUATE II trial (difference, -0.19; 95% CI, -0.55 to 0.17; P = 0.30). At week 116, the difference in the amyloid level on PET between the gantenerumab group and the placebo group was -66.44 and -56.46 centiloids in the GRADUATE I and II trials, respectively, and amyloid-negative status was attained in 28.0% and 26.8% of the participants receiving gantenerumab in the two trials. Across both trials, participants receiving gantenerumab had lower CSF levels of phosphorylated tau 181 and higher levels of Aβ42 than those receiving placebo; the accumulation of aggregated tau on PET was similar in the two groups. Amyloid-related imaging abnormalities with edema (ARIA-E) occurred in 24.9% of the participants receiving gantenerumab, and symptomatic ARIA-E occurred in 5.0%. Among persons with early Alzheimer's disease, the use of gantenerumab led to a lower amyloid plaque burden than placebo at 116 weeks but was not associated with slower clinical decline. (Funded by F. Hoffmann-La Roche; GRADUATE I and II ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT03444870 and NCT03443973, respectively.).

In 2010, we put forward a hypothetical model of the major biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease (AD). The model was received with interest because we described the temporal evolution of AD biomarkers in relation to each other and to the onset and progression of clinical symptoms. Since then, evidence has accumulated that supports the major assumptions of this model. Evidence has also appeared that challenges some of our assumptions, which has allowed us to modify our original model. Refinements to our model include indexing of individuals by time rather than clinical symptom severity; incorporation of interindividual variability in cognitive impairment associated with progression of AD pathophysiology; modifications of the specific temporal ordering of some biomarkers; and recognition that the two major proteinopathies underlying AD biomarker changes, amyloid β (Aβ) and tau, might be initiated independently in sporadic AD, in which we hypothesise that an incident Aβ pathophysiology can accelerate antecedent limbic and brainstem tauopathy.

INTRODUCTION Incorporating blood‐based Alzheimer's disease biomarkers such as tau and amyloid beta (Aβ) into screening algorithms may improve screening efficiency. METHODS Plasma Aβ, phosphorylated tau (p‐tau)181, and p‐tau217 concentration levels from AHEAD 3–45 study participants were measured using mass spectrometry. Tau concentration ratios for each proteoform were calculated to normalize for inter‐individual differences. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed for each biomarker against amyloid positivity, defined by > 20 Centiloids. Mixture of experts analysis assessed the value of including tau concentration ratios into the existing predictive algorithm for amyloid positron emission tomography status. RESULTS The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) was 0.87 for Aβ42/Aβ40, 0.74 for phosphorylated variant p‐tau181 ratio (p‐tau181/np‐tau181), and 0.92 for phosphorylated variant p‐tau217 ratio (p‐tau217/np‐tau217). The Plasma Predicted Centiloid (PPC), a predictive model including p‐tau217/np‐tau217, Aβ42/Aβ40, age, and apolipoprotein E improved AUC to 0.95. DISCUSSION Including plasma p‐tau217/np‐tau217 along with Aβ42/Aβ40 in predictive algorithms may streamline screening preclinical individuals into anti‐amyloid clinical trials. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04468659 Highlights The addition of plasma phosphorylated variant p‐tau217 ratio (p‐tau217/np‐tau217) significantly improved plasma biomarker algorithms for identifying preclinical amyloid positron emission tomography positivity. Prediction performance at higher NAV Centiloid levels was improved with p‐tau217/np‐tau217. All models generated for this study are incorporated into the Plasma Predicted Centiloid (PPC) app for public use.

•The time-from-Aβ pathology measure identifies early signs of disease progression.•Increases in tau pathology and cognitive dysfunction occur 4–8 years prior to Aβ-positivity.•Slowing the spread of tau pathology and cognitive decline may require treatment prior to significant Aβ pathology. Estimate the time-course of the spread of key pathological markers and the onset of cognitive dysfunction in Alzheimer's disease. In a cohort of 335 older adults, ranging in cognitive functioning, we estimated the time of initial changes of Aβ, tau, and decreases in cognition with respect to the time of Aβ-positivity. Small effect sizes of change in CSF Aβ42 and regional Aβ PET were estimated to occur several decades before Aβ-positivity. Increases in CSF tau occurred 7–8 years before Aβ-positivity. Temporoparietal tau PET showed increases 4–5 years before Aβ-positivity. Subtle cognitive dysfunction was observed 4–6 years before Aβ-positivity. Increases in tau and cognitive dysfunction occur years before commonly used thresholds for Aβ-positivity. Explicit estimates of the time for these events provide a clearer picture of the time-course of the amyloid cascade and identify potential windows for specific treatments.

Objective To clarify the preclinical stage of Alzheimer’s disease by estimating when β‐amyloid accumulation first becomes associated with changes in cognition. Methods Here we studied a large group (N = 4432) of cognitively unimpaired individuals who were screened for inclusion in the A4 trial (age 65–85) to assess the effect of subthreshold levels of β‐amyloid on cognition and to identify which cognitive domains first become affected. Results β‐amyloid accumulation was linked to significant cognitive dysfunction in cognitively unimpaired participants with subthreshold levels of β‐amyloid in multiple measures of memory (Logical Memory Delayed Recall, P = 0.03; Free and Cued Selective Reminding Test, P < 0.001), the Preclinical Alzheimer’s Cognitive Composite (P = 0.01), and was marginally associated with decreased executive function (Digit Symbol Substitution, P = 0.07). Significantly, decreased cognitive scores were associated with suprathreshold levels of β‐amyloid, across all measures (P < 0.05). The Free and Cued Selective Reminding Test, a list recall memory test, appeared most sensitive to β‐amyloid ‐related decreases in average cognitive scores, outperforming all other cognitive domains, including the narrative recall memory test, Logical Memory. Interpretation Clinical trials for cognitively unimpaired β‐amyloid‐positive individuals will include a large number of individuals where mechanisms downstream from β‐amyloid pathology are already activated. These findings have implications for primary and secondary prevention of Alzheimer’s disease.

There is a growing need in clinical research domains for direct comparability between amyloid-beta (Aβ) Positron Emission Tomography (PET) measures obtained via different radiotracers and processing methodologies. Previous efforts to provide a common measurement scale fail to account for non-linearities between measurement scales that can arise from these differences. We introduce a new application of distribution mapping, based on well established statistical orthodoxy, that we call Nonlinear Distribution Mapping (NoDiM). NoDiM uses cumulative distribution functions to derive mappings between Aβ-PET measurements from different tracers and processing streams that align data based on their location in their respective distributions. Utilizing large datasets of Florbetapir (FBP) from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (n = 349 female (%) = 53) and Pittsburgh Compound B (PiB) from the Harvard Aging Brain Study (n = 305 female (%) = 59.3) and the Australian Imaging, Biomarker & Lifestyle Flagship Study of Ageing (n = 184 female (%) = 53.3), we fit explicit mathematical models of a mixture of two normal distributions, with parameter estimates from Gaussian Mixture Models, to each tracer's empirical data. We demonstrate the accuracy of these fits, and then show the ability of NoDiM to transform FBP measurements into PiB-like units. A mixture of two normal distributions fit both the FBP and PiB empirical data and provides a strong basis for derivation of a transfer function. Transforming Aβ-PET data with NoDiM results in FBP and PiB distributions that are closely aligned throughout their entire range, while a linear transformation does not. Additionally the NoDiM transform better matches true positive and false positive profiles across tracers. The NoDiM transformation provides a useful alternative to the linear mapping advocated in the Centiloid project, and provides improved correspondence between measurements from different tracers across the range of observed values. This improved alignment enables disparate measures to be merged on to continuous scale, and better enables the use of uniform thresholds across tracers. •Non-linear, rank order based, radiotracer mapping method introduced called NoDiM.•Two Component GMM good fit for creating synthetic Aβ-PET CDFs.•Non linear mapping allows false positive and true negative rates to better align.•ADNI FBP successfully harmonized with HABS and AIBL PiB data.

To gain further knowledge on the preclinical phase of Alzheimer's disease (AD), we sought to characterize cognitive performance, neuroimaging and plasma-based AD biomarkers in a cohort of non-demented adults with down syndrome (DS). The goal of the down syndrome biomarker Initiative (DSBI) pilot is to test feasibility of this approach for future multicenter studies. We enrolled 12 non-demented participants with DS between the ages of 30-60 years old. Participants underwent extensive cognitive testing, volumetric MRI, amyloid positron emission tomography (PET; 18F-florbetapir), fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET (18F-fluorodeoxyglucose) and retinal amyloid imaging. In addition, plasma beta-amyloid (Aβ) species were measured and Apolipoprotein E (ApoE) genotyping was performed. Results from our multimodal analysis suggest greater hippocampal atrophy with amyloid load. Additionally, we identified an inverse relationship between amyloid load and regional glucose metabolism. Cognitive and functional measures did not correlate with amyloid load in DS but did correlate with regional FDG PET measures. Biomarkers of AD can be readily studied in adults with DS as in other preclinical AD populations. Importantly, all subjects in this feasibility study were able to complete all test procedures. The data indicate that a large, multicenter longitudinal study is feasible to better understand the trajectories of AD biomarkers in this enriched population. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02141971.

Alzheimer’s disease is the most common neurodegenerative disease and is characterized by the accumulation of amyloid-beta peptides leading to the formation of plaques and tau protein tangles in brain. These neuropathological features precede cognitive impairment and Alzheimer’s dementia by many years. To better understand and predict the course of disease from early-stage asymptomatic to late-stage dementia, it is critical to study the patterns of progression of multiple markers. In particular, we aim to predict the likely future course of progression for individuals given only a single observation of their markers. Improved individual-level prediction may lead to improved clinical care and clinical trials. We propose a two-stage approach to modeling and predicting measures of cognition, function, brain imaging, fluid biomarkers, and diagnosis of individuals using multiple domains simultaneously. In the first stage, joint (or multivariate) mixed-effects models are used to simultaneously model multiple markers over time. In the second stage, random forests are used to predict categorical diagnoses (cognitively normal, mild cognitive impairment, or dementia) from predictions of continuous markers based on the first-stage model. The combination of the two models allows one to leverage their key strengths in order to obtain improved accuracy. We characterize the predictive accuracy of this two-stage approach using data from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. The two-stage approach using a single joint mixed-effects model for all continuous outcomes yields better diagnostic classification accuracy compared to using separate univariate mixed-effects models for each of the continuous outcomes. Overall prediction accuracy above 80% was achieved over a period of 2.5 years. The results further indicate that overall accuracy is improved when markers from multiple assessment domains, such as cognition, function, and brain imaging, are used in the prediction algorithm as compared to the use of markers from a single domain only.

Introduction Lumbar puncture (LP) to collect and examine cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) is an important option for the evaluation of Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarkers but it is not routinely performed due to its invasiveness and link to adverse effects (AE). Methods We include all participants who received at least one LP in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) Study. For comparison between groups, two‐sample t‐tests for continuous, and Pearson's chi‐square test for categorical variables were performed. Results Two hundred twenty‐seven LP‐related AEs were reported by 172 participants after 1702 LPs (13.3%). The mean age of participants who reported at least one AE was 69.79 (standard deviation (SD) 6.3) versus none 72.44 (7.17) years (p < 0.001) with female predominance (115/172 = 67.4% vs 435/913 = 48%), and had greater entorhinal cortical thickness and hippocampal volume (3.903 (0.782) vs 3.684 (0.775) mm, p = 0.002; 7.38 (1.06) vs 7.05 (1.15) mm3, p < 0.001), respectively. Discussion We found that younger age, female sex, and greater thickness of the entorhinal cortex were associated with a higher rate of LP‐related AE reports.