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"Douglas, Philip"
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Projections of the Advance in the Start of the Growing Season during the 21st Century Based on CMIP5 Simulations
It is well-known that global warming due to anthropogenic atmospheric greenhouse effects advanced the start of the vegetation growing season （SOS） across the globe during the 20th century. Projections of further changes in the SOS for the 21st century under certain emissions scenarios （Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs） are useful for improving understanding of the consequences of global warming. In this study, we first evaluate a linear relationship between the SOS （defined using the normalized difference vegetation index） and the April temperature for most land areas of the Northern Hemisphere for 1982-2008. Based on this relationship and the ensemble projection of April temperature under RCPs from the latest state-of-the-art global coupled climate models, we show the possible changes in the SOS for most of the land areas of the Northern Hemisphere during the 21st century. By around 2040-59, the SOS will have advanced by -4.7 days under RCP2.6, -8.4 days under RCP4.5, and -10.1 days under RCPS.5, relative to 1985-2004. By 2080-99, it will have advanced by -4.3 days under RCP2.6, -11.3 days under RCP4.5, and -21.6 days under RCP8.5. The geographic pattern of SOS advance is considerably dependent on that of the temperature sensitivity of the SOS. The larger the temperature sensitivity, the larger the date-shift-rate of the SOS.
Journal Article
Community health indicators associated with outcomes of pancreatectomy
This study evaluates the association of environmental, social and health risk factors in relation to outcomes of pancreatic surgery.
Patients who underwent pancreatectomy with a 30 day postoperative follow up in Florida, New York and Washington states were identified using the State Inpatient Databases (SID) from 2010 to 2011. This data was merged with community health indicators complied from the County Health Ranking database. Fourteen community health indicators were used to determine higher risk communities. Communities were then divided into low and high risk communities based on a scoring system using accumulative community risk.
Among 3494 patients included recipients in high-risk communities were more likely African American (p < 0.001), younger (age 40–59; p = 0.001), and had Medicaid as primary insurance (p = 0.001). Management of patients in high-risk communities was associated with increased risk of postoperative complications (p < 0.001), ICU admissions (p < 0.001), increased length of stay (p < 0.001).
Health indicators from patients' communities are predictors of increased risk of perioperative complications for individuals undergoing pancreas surgery.
•Ecological factors and community health factors may be associated with poor outcomes after pancreatic surgery regardless of quality of care delivered by an institution, surgeon and ancillary staff.•Increased ICU admission, hospital length of stay and post-operative complications seem to be linked to community heath factors.•More research should be done in order to determine how to use this information to improve disparities in care, but for now recognizing that this is an important issue in delivery and management of healthcare is an important step.
Journal Article
A Pilot Forecasting System for Epidemic Thunderstorm Asthma in Southeastern Australia
In November 2016, an unprecedented epidemic thunderstorm asthma event in Victoria, Australia, resulted in many thousands of people developing breathing difficulties in a very short period of time, including 10 deaths, and created extreme demand across the Victorian health services. To better prepare for future events, a pilot forecasting system for epidemic thunderstorm asthma (ETSA) risk has been developed for Victoria. The system uses a categorical risk-based approach, combining operational forecasting of gusty winds in severe thunderstorms with statistical forecasts of high ambient grass pollen concentrations, which together generate the risk of epidemic thunderstorm asthma. This pilot system provides the first routine daily epidemic thunderstorm asthma risk forecasting service in the world that covers a wide area, and integrates into the health, ambulance, and emergency management sector. Epidemic thunderstorm asthma events have historically occurred infrequently, and no event of similar magnitude has impacted the Victorian health system since. However, during the first three years of the pilot, 2017–19, two high asthma presentation events and four moderate asthma presentation events were identified from public hospital emergency department records. The ETSA risk forecasts showed skill in discriminating between days with and without health impacts. However, even with hindsight of the actual weather and airborne grass pollen conditions, some high asthma presentation events occurred in districts that were assessed as low risk for ETSA, reflecting the challenge of predicting this unusual phenomenon.
Journal Article
Fashion victim: rhabdomyolysis and bilateral peroneal and tibial neuropathies as a result of squatting in ‘skinny jeans’
CT scan of the lower legs showed marked oedema and hypoattenuation of the posterior calf muscles, worse on the right, consistent with myonecrosis ( figure 1 ). Common peroneal neuropathies can be caused by a range of factors, of which external compression at or near the fibular head is the most common. 1 Recognised causes include prolonged squatting. 2-4 Combined common peroneal and tibial neuropathies have not previously been described in association with squatting.
Journal Article
Enigmatic, ultrasmall, uncultivated Archaea
Metagenomics has provided access to genomes of as yet uncultivated microorganisms in natural environments, yet there are gaps in our knowledge--particularly for Archaea--that occur at relatively low abundance and in extreme environments. Ultrasmall cells (<500 nm in diameter) from lineages without cultivated representatives that branch near the crenarchaeal/euryarchaeal divide have been detected in a variety of acidic ecosystems. We reconstructed composite, near-complete approximately 1-Mb genomes for three lineages, referred to as ARMAN (archaeal Richmond Mine acidophilic nanoorganisms), from environmental samples and a biofilm filtrate. Genes of two lineages are among the smallest yet described, enabling a 10% higher coding density than found genomes of the same size, and there are noncontiguous genes. No biological function could be inferred for up to 45% of genes and no more than 63% of the predicted proteins could be assigned to a revised set of archaeal clusters of orthologous groups. Some core metabolic genes are more common in Crenarchaeota than Euryarchaeota, up to 21% of genes have the highest sequence identity to bacterial genes, and 12 belong to clusters of orthologous groups that were previously exclusive to bacteria. A small subset of 3D cryo-electron tomographic reconstructions clearly show penetration of the ARMAN cell wall and cytoplasmic membranes by protuberances extended from cells of the archaeal order THERMOPLASMATALES: Interspecies interactions, the presence of a unique internal tubular organelle [Comolli, et al. (2009) ISME J 3:159-167], and many genes previously only affiliated with Crenarchaea or Bacteria indicate extensive unique physiology in organisms that branched close to the time that Cren- and Euryarchaeotal lineages diverged.
Journal Article
The Bipolarity of Modern 'Man' in the Anthropocene: Ecomodernist Mania as Case for Unmanning Anthropocene Discourse
Kupferschmidt cites that efforts to avoid environmental crisis are continually hindered by the common human capacity for denial. Oftentimes, this denial takes the form of optimistic modernists reacting against the catastrophic claims and predictions of apocalyptic rhetoric. In light of the Anthropocene, however, we see that the broader issue of ecocide is not limited to the possibility of a predictable crisis event, nor even to a point of no return. In ecocide, something concrete really is coming to an end, in that much biodiversity already has. However, because apocalyptic rhetoric always coincides with predictions, people in denial of the severity of the ecocide often justify their denial by invoking the inaccuracy of environmentalists' sometimes pessimistic predictions. Here, he approaches the problem of denial using relevant notions from psychopathology. Anthropocene discourse proves to be bipolar in its structure, and not simply in the sense of opposing mood states or exaggerations of optimism and pessimism. The current opposition between ecomodernism and deep ecology manifests as a manic-depressive response to the contradictions and revelations of the Anthropocene.
Journal Article
Design flood flows with climate change: method and limitations
An extended method is presented for ‘perturbing' design flood flows to account for climate change. Specifically, the method uses climate model output to directly alter parameters in the UK Flood Estimation Handbook rainfall–runoff model. The method is explored using a model of the River Eden catchment in northwest England, which comprises 26 sub-catchment hydrological models, with outflows routed using a hydraulic model. The results show a significant increase in flood flows and water levels by the 2080s, although uncertainties are large. The size of the increases varies depending on the climate change scenario and timing of the event, with the monthly precipitation change factor the single largest determinant of the change in peak flow. The method is reasonably simple to apply and there are benefits of using climate model information, rather than a sensitivity allowance, in terms of geographical interpretation of changes in precipitation and explicit representation of some of the uncertainty related to climate change. However, there are significant limitations to the methodology, in particular the minimal representation of antecedent conditions and more generally due to the ability of climate models to accurately reproduce and simulate extreme precipitation.
Journal Article