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"Dovern, Jonas"
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الدولار واليورو : هل يحتم العجز الكبير في ميزان الحساب الجاري الأمريكي ارتفاعا في قيمة اليورو ؟
يهدف الكتاب إلى البحث في هذه الآراء والتصورات وانطلق المؤلفون في القسم الأول من أن سبب العجز يعود بالأساس إلى تطور الأوضاع في الولايات المتحدة نفسها أما القسم الثاني فيقدم ملخصا عن دراسة أوستفيلد وروجوف كونها مثالا جيدا لسيناريو ينطلق ضمنيا من انخفاض شديد في قيمة الدولار، ويستعرض القسم الثالث مشكلة العجز في الحساب الجاري الأمريكي والأسباب المحتملة لنشأة هذا العجز من منظور عالمي الأبعاد ويناقش القسم الرابع ملامح العملية التي يمكن أن تقود إلى تخفيض هذا العجز.
BOOK
DISAGREEMENT AMONG FORECASTERS IN G7 COUNTRIES
We investigate determinants of disagreement—cross-sectional dispersion of individual forecasts—about key economic indicators. Disagreement about economic activity, in particular about GDP growth, has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about prices: inflation and interest rates. Disagreement about GDP growth intensifies strongly during recessions. Disagreement about prices rises with their level, declines under independent central banks, and both its level and its sensitivity to macroeconomic variables are larger in countries where central banks became independent only around the mid-1990s. Our findings suggest that credible monetary policy contributes to anchoring of expectations about inflation and interest rates. Disagreement for both groups of indicators increases with uncertainty about the actual series.
Journal Article
Forecast performance, disagreement, and heterogeneous signal-to-noise ratios
We propose an imperfect information model for the expectations of macroeconomic forecasters that explains differences in average disagreement levels across forecasters by means of cross-sectional heterogeneity in the variance of private noise signals. We show that the forecaster-specific signal-to-noise ratios determine both the average individual disagreement level and an individuals’ forecast performance: Forecasters with very noisy signals deviate strongly from the average forecasts and report forecasts with low accuracy. We take the model to the data by empirically testing for this implied correlation. Evidence based on data from the
Surveys of Professional Forecasters
for the USA and for the Euro Area supports the model for short- and medium-run forecasts but rejects it based on its implications for long-run forecasts.
Journal Article
Wie die Wahl Donald Trumps die Stimmung in der Industrie verändert
Die Wiederwahl Donald Trumps zum US-Präsidenten im November 2024 hat die Geschäftserwartungen deutscher Industrieunternehmen spürbar verschlechtert. Das zeigt eine Auswertung der ifo Konjunkturumfragen, bei der anhand der zeitlichen Streuung der Antworten der Effekt der Wahlnachricht identifziert wurde. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass Firmen negative Geschäftserwartungen für 2025 berichteten, stieg nach Bekanntgabe des Wahlergebnisses um 12,3 Prozentpunkte. Besonders stark reagierten exportierende Unternehmen und solche mit direkter Handelsverflechtung mit den USA. Die veränderten Erwartungen spiegelten sich auch in pessimistischeren Investitionsplänen wider. Die Ergebnisse belegen, dass wichtige politische Ereignisse im Ausland die wirtschaftliche Stimmung deutscher Unternehmen kurzfristig und substanziell beeinflussen können.
Journal Article
Indicators for monitoring sustainable development goals: An application to oceanic development in the European Union
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development includes a set of 17 sustainable development goals (SDG) with 169 specific targets. As such, it could be a step forward in achieving efficient governance and policies for global sustainable development. However, the current indicator framework with its broad set of individual indicators prevents straightforward assessment of synergies and trade-offs between the various indicators, targets, and goals, thus, heightening the significance of policy guidance in achieving sustainable development. With our detailed analysis of SDG 14 (Ocean) for European Union (EU) coastal states, we demonstrate how the (complementary) inclusion of composite indicators that aggregate the individual indicators by applying a generalized mean can provide important additional information and facilitate the assessment of sustainable development in general and in the SDG context in particular. Embedded in the context of social choice theory, the generalized mean varies the specification of substitution elasticity and thus allows: (a) for a straightforward distinction between a concept of weak and strong sustainability and (b) for straightforward sensitivity analysis. We show that while in general the EU coastal states have a fairly balanced record at the SDG 14 level, certain countries like Slovenia and Portugal with a fairly balanced and a fairly unbalanced showing, respectively, rank very differently in terms of the two concepts of strong sustainability.
Journal Article
Sticky Information Phillips Curves: European Evidence
We estimate the Sticky Information Phillips Curve model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) using survey expectations of professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom are updated about once a year, while in Italy, about once each 6 months.
Journal Article
What macroeconomic shocks affect the German banking system?
Purpose - The paper is to understand how the financial system is influenced by macroeconomic shocks and how the financial stance, in turn, feeds back into the macroeconomic environment is key for policy makers. The most recent financial crisis has demonstrated the need for a deeper understanding of these interdependencies. The purpose of this paper is to analyze what macroeconomic shocks affect the soundness of the German banking system.Design methodology approach - The paper draws on a micro-macro stress-testing framework for the German banking system in which macroeconomic and bank-specific data are used to identify the effects of various shocks in a structural vector autoregressive model, which includes main macroeconomic variables and an indicator of stress in the banking system. To this end, the sign-restriction approach is applied.Findings - First, it is found that there is a close link between macroeconomic developments and the stance of the banking sector. Second, monetary policy shocks are the most influential shocks for distress in the banking sector. Third, fiscal policy shocks and real estate price shocks have a significant impact on the distress indicator, while evidence is mixed for the exchange rate. Fourth, for the identification of most shocks it is essential to work in the integrated model that combines the micro- and the macro-sphere.Originality value - The paper analyzes various shock scenarios in an integrated micro-macro framework that takes the mutual relationship between the financial stance and the macroeconomic environment into account.
Journal Article
What macroeconomic shocks affect the German banking system?
The paper is to understand how the financial system is influenced by macroeconomic shocks and how the financial stance, in turn, feeds back into the macroeconomic environment is key for policy makers. The most recent financial crisis has demonstrated the need for a deeper understanding of these interdependencies. The purpose of this paper is to analyze what macroeconomic shocks affect the soundness of the German banking system. The paper draws on a micro-macro stress-testing framework for the German banking system in which macroeconomic and bank-specific data are used to identify the effects of various shocks in a structural vector autoregressive model, which includes main macroeconomic variables and an indicator of stress in the banking system. To this end, the sign-restriction approach is applied. First, it is found that there is a close link between macroeconomic developments and the stance of the banking sector. Second, monetary policy shocks are the most influential shocks for distress in the banking sector. Third, fiscal policy shocks and real estate price shocks have a significant impact on the distress indicator, while evidence is mixed for the exchange rate. Fourth, for the identification of most shocks it is essential to work in the integrated model that combines the micro- and the macro-sphere. The paper analyzes various shock scenarios in an integrated micro-macro framework that takes the mutual relationship between the financial stance and the macroeconomic environment into account.
Journal Article
Die Bedeutung monetärer Größen für die deutsche Wachstumsschwäche 1995-2005
Between 1995 and 2005, the German economy has experienced a phase of weak economic growth. We analyze whether this weak growth performance can be attributed to the stance of monetary conditions during that period. We show that the real effective exchange rate did have almost no dampening effects on growth. On the contrary, the introduction of the euro and the single monetary policy for the euro area seem to have contributed significantly to the low trend growth rate in Germany between 1999 and 2005.
Journal Article
Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators under Real-Time Conditions
Abstract
In this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data for the US. In addition, we assess their ability to predict recessions. We consider four groups of indicators: survey data, composite indicators, real economic indicators, and financial data. Almost all indicators are found to improve short-run growth forecasts whereas results for four quarter ahead growth forecasts and the prediction of recession probabilities in general is mixed. We can confirm the result that an indicator suited to improve growth forecasts does not necessarily help to produce more accurate recession forecasts. Only composite leading indicators perform generally well in both forecasting exercises.
Journal Article