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"Drake, David"
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Observation Bias: The Impact of Demand Censoring on Newsvendor Level and Adjustment Behavior
In an experimental newsvendor setting, we investigate three phenomena:
level behavior
-the decision maker's average ordering tendency;
adjustment behavior
-the tendency to adjust period-to-period order quantities; and
observation bias
-the tendency to let the degree of demand feedback influence order quantities. We find that, in three of four conditions, the portion of mismatch cost that results from adjustment behavior exceeds the portion of mismatch cost caused by level behavior. Observation bias is studied through censored demand feedback, a situation that arguably represents most newsvendor settings. When demands are uncensored, subjects tend to order below the normative quantity when they face high margin and above the normative quantity when they face low margin, but in neither case do they order beyond mean demand (the pull-to-center effect). Censoring in general leads to lower quantities, magnifying the below-normative-level behavior when they face high margin but partially counterbalancing the above-normative-level behavior when they face low margin, violating the pull-to-center effect in both cases.
Data, as supplemental material, are available at
http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2013.1825
.
This paper was accepted by Christian Terwiesch, operations management
.
Journal Article
Death's bright day
\"Captain Daniel Leary thinks that his marriage will allow him to slip into the quiet role of a naval officer in peacetime. His friend, the spy and cybrarian Adele Mundy, is content to be collating data in her library. But high officials of both superpowers are involved. Those who want Daniel and Adele to become involved in the Tarbell Stars claim that only they can prevent a war between the Republic of Cinnabar and its great rival, the Alliance of Free Stars. The conflict is political, but at the sharp end it means blazing warfare and cold-blooded murder. Daniel and Adele will be at the sharp end\"--Amazon.com.
Book
Are the mutans streptococci still considered relevant to understanding the microbial etiology of dental caries?
The mutans streptococci were once the primary focus of research dedicated to understanding the etiology of dental caries. That focus has now shifted to an emphasis on the ecological balances and complexities within the entirety of the plaque microbiome. Within that framework there are considerable differences of opinion regarding the importance and relative contributions of the mutans streptococci. This article explores the basis for the various viewpoints, the limitations of current knowledge, and the confounders that make it difficult to arrive at a consensus.
Journal Article
Though hell should bar the way
\"Roy Olfetrie planned to be an officer in the Republic of Cinnabar but when his father was unmasked as a white-collar criminal he had to take whatever was offered. What is offered is a chance to accompany Captain Daniel Leary and Lady Adele Mundy as they go off to start a war that will put Roy at the sharp end. Duty snatches Roy from the harem of a pirate chief to a world of monsters, from interstellar reaches in a half-wrecked starship to assassination attempts at posh houses. The action doesn't slow and nor can Roy. Captain Leary himself has given Roy a chance and he is determined to make the most of it\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Coexistence of coyotes (Canis latrans) and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in an urban landscape
Urban environments are increasing worldwide and are inherently different than their rural counterparts, with a variety of effects on wildlife due to human presence, increased habitat fragmentation, movement barriers, and access to anthropogenic food sources. Effective management of urban wildlife requires an understanding of how urbanization affects their behavior and ecology. The spatial activity and interactions of urban wildlife, however, have not been as rigorously researched as in rural areas. From January 2015 to December 2016, we captured, radio-collared, and tracked 11 coyotes and 12 red foxes in Madison, WI. Within our study area, coyotes strongly selected home ranges with high proportions of natural areas; conversely, red foxes selected home ranges with open space and moderately developed areas. Use of highly developed areas best explained variation among individual home range sizes and inversely affected home range size for coyotes and red foxes. Coyote and red fox home ranges showed some degree of spatial and temporal overlap, but generally appeared partitioned by habitat type within our study area. Coyotes and red foxes were both active at similar times of the day, but their movement patterns differed based on species-specific habitat use. This spatial partitioning may promote positive co-existence between these sympatric canids in urban areas, and our findings of spatial activity and interactions will better inform wildlife managers working in urban areas.
Journal Article
The storm
\"The universe has shattered into chaos and monsters. Jon, the Leader, is dedicating his life to reuniting the scattered hamlets into a Commonwealth where all humans can live protected against the darkness. But no man can reshape the universe by himself. Jon has Makers to build weapons and clerks to handle the business of government--but he also needs Champions to face the powers of chaos which will not listen to any argument but force. Lord Pal of Beune is one of those Champions. But now Guntram, the man who transformed Pal from an ignorant rube into a bulwark of the Commonwealth, has disappeared. Pal must locate his friend and mentor--and then battle an entity which may be at the core of the splintered universe\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Predictors of Study Abroad Intent, Participation, and College Outcomes
This study examined US undergraduate students' intent to study abroad upon college entry and their actual participation in study abroad during their undergraduate years, correlating the college outcomes of three cohorts to identify trends. The findings show that study abroad intent and participation are interrelated and shaped by an array of factors, including gender, race or ethnicity, major, and involvement in college activities. While mathematical ability and helping to promote racial understanding negatively affected study abroad intent, aspiring to earn an advanced degree, time spent socializing with friends, artistic ability, seeking to improve understanding of other countries and cultures, and expectations to join a social fraternity or sorority, to be satisfied with college, and to participate in student clubs or groups positively influenced study abroad intent. Also, the findings indicate that involvement in the student government, a music or theater group, a political club, club sports, and off-campus study negatively affected participation in study abroad. Finally, the findings reveal that study abroad made a unique contribution to college outcomes, such as understanding moral and ethical issues, communication skills, academic performance, and overall satisfaction. Implications for higher education researchers, study abroad professionals, senior administrators, faculty advisors, and college students are discussed.
Journal Article
The spark
\"In the time of the ancients the universe was united--but that was so far in the past that not even memory remains, only the broken artifacts that a few Makers can reshape into their original uses. What survives is shattered into enclaves--some tiny, some ruined, some wild. Into the gaps between settlements, and onto the Road that connects all human reality and the reality that is not human and may never have been human, have crept monsters. Some creatures are men, twisted into inhuman evil; some of them are alien to mankind\"--Amazon.com.
Book
Innovations in Passive Downdraft Cooling Performance Evaluation Methods: Design and Construction of a Novel Environmental Test Chamber
Energy demand for active mechanical space cooling is projected to double by 2050. Wider adoption of passive cooling systems can help reduce demand. However, familiarity with these systems remains low, and innovation in the field is constrained due to a lack of cost-effective, accessible performance evaluation methods. This paper reports the design, construction, and commissioning of an affordable, self-contained environmental test chamber. The novel chamber replicates a range of outdoor conditions common in hot, dry regions, making possible year-round testing of reduced-scale prototypes. Data from calibration testing are reported, showing no significant difference in evaporative efficiency when a reduced-scale prototype tested in the chamber is compared with datasets from prior full-scale testing. Analyzing the results using an independent sample two-tailed t-test with a 95% confidence interval found a p-value of 0.75. While measured outlet air velocities for reduced-scale and full-scale prototypes differed to some extent (root mean square error of 0.45 m/s), results were nevertheless deemed comparable due to errors introduced by the rapid change in wind speeds and directions at full scale. Future chamber modifications will correct misalignments between data collected from the two scales and prevent observed increases in the chamber’s relative humidity levels during testing.
Journal Article