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ObjectivesTo determine the impact of major legislative changes to New Zealand’s Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) legislation with the adoption of the Robens model as a means to control occupational risks on the burden and risk of work-related fatal injury (WRFI).MethodsPopulation-based comparison of WRFI to workers aged 15–84 years occurring during three periods: before (pre:1985–1992), after legislative reform (post-1:1993–2002) and after subsequent amendment (post-2:2003–2014). Annual age-industry standardised rates were calculated with 95% CI. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to estimate age-adjusted annual percentage changes (APC) for each period, overall and stratified by high-risk industry and occupational groups.ResultsOver the 30-year period, 2053 worker deaths met the eligibility criteria. Age-adjusted APC in rates of worker WRFI changed little between periods: pre (−2.8%, 95% CI 0.0% to −5.5%); post-1 (−2.9%, 95% CI −1.3% to −4.5%) and post-2 (−2.9%, 95% CI −1.3% to −4.4%). There was no evidence of differences in slope. Variable trends in worker WRFI were observed for historically high-risk industry and occupational groups.ConclusionsThe rate of worker WRFI decreased steadily over the 30-year period under examination and there was no evidence that this pattern of declining WRFI was substantially altered with the introduction of Robens-styled OHS legislative reforms. Beyond headline figures, historically high-risk groups had highly variable progress in reducing worker WRFI following legislative reform. This study demonstrates the value in including prereform data and high-risk subgroup analysis when assessing the performance of OHS legislative reforms to control occupational risks.

BackgroundMesothelioma is increasingly recognised as a global health issue and the assessment of its global burden is warranted.ObjectivesTo descriptively analyse national mortality data and to use reported and estimated data to calculate the global burden of mesothelioma deaths.MethodsFor the study period of 1994 to 2014, we grouped 230 countries into 59 countries with quality mesothelioma mortality data suitable to be used for reference rates, 45 countries with poor quality data and 126 countries with no data, based on the availability of data in the WHO Mortality Database. To estimate global deaths, we extrapolated the gender-specific and age-specific mortality rates of the countries with quality data to all other countries.ResultsThe global numbers and rates of mesothelioma deaths have increased over time. The 59 countries with quality data recorded 15 011 mesothelioma deaths per year over the 3 most recent years with available data (equivalent to 9.9 deaths per million per year). From these reference data, we extrapolated the global mesothelioma deaths to be 38 400 per year, based on extrapolations for asbestos use.ConclusionsAlthough the validity of our extrapolation method depends on the adequate identification of quality mesothelioma data and appropriate adjustment for other variables, our estimates can be updated, refined and verified because they are based on commonly accessible data and are derived using a straightforward algorithm. Our estimates are within the range of previously reported values but higher than the most recently reported values.

Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the strengths, limitations and lessons learned from estimating the burden from musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions in the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study (GBD 2010 Study). It should be read in conjunction with the other GBD 2010 Study papers published in this journal. The strengths of the GBD 2010 Study include: the involvement of a MSK expert group; development of new and more valid case definitions, functional health states, and disability weights to better reflect the MSK conditions; the extensive series of systematic reviews undertaken to obtain data to derive the burden estimates; and the use of a new, more advanced version of the disease-modelling software (DisMod-MR). Limitations include: many regions of the world did not have data; the extent of heterogeneity between included studies; and burden does not include broader aspects of life, such as participation and well-being. A number of lessons were learned. Ongoing involvement of experts is critical to ensure the success of future efforts to quantify and monitor this burden. A paradigm shift is urgently needed among global agencies in order to alleviate the rapidly increasing global burden from MSK conditions. Prevention and control of MSK disability are required, along with health system changes. Further research is needed to improve understanding of the predictors and clinical course across different settings, and the ways in which MSK conditions can be better managed and prevented.

ObjectivesMalignant mesothelioma is an uncommon cancer associated with asbestos exposure, predominantly occupational. Asbestos has been banned in Australia since 2003 but mesothelioma has a long latency and incident cases continue to present. The Australian Mesothelioma Registry was incepted to collect systematic data about incidence and mortality alongside asbestos exposure.MethodsBenefiting from the Australian national system of cancer notification, all incident cases of mesothelioma in all states and territories are fast-tracked and notified regularly. Notified patients are contacted asking for consent to collect exposure information, initially by postal questionnaire and subsequently by telephone interview. Age-standardised annual incidence rates and mortality rates were calculated. Asbestos exposure was categorised as occupational, non-occupational, neither or, both; and as low, or high, probability of exposure.ResultsMesothelioma incidence appears to have peaked. The age-standardised incidence rates have declined steadily since the early 2000s (peaking in males at 5.9/100 000 and in all-persons at 3.2/100 000), driven by rates in males, who comprise the majority of diagnosed cases. Rates in women have remained fairly stable since that time. Age-standardised mortality rates have followed similar trends. Mesothelioma remains the most common in those aged over 80 years. Nearly all (94%) cases were linked with asbestos exposure (78% occupational in men; 6.8% in women).ConclusionsWith effective control of occupational asbestos use, the decline in age-standardised incidence and death rates has occurred. Incidence rates among women, in whom occupational asbestos exposure is rarely detectable, remain unchanged, pointing to the role of household and /or environmental asbestos exposure.

Measurement of the global burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weights that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. There has been extensive debate about a range of conceptual and methodological issues concerning the definition and measurement of these weights. Our primary objective was a comprehensive re-estimation of disability weights for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 through a large-scale empirical investigation in which judgments about health losses associated with many causes of disease and injury were elicited from the general public in diverse communities through a new, standardised approach. We surveyed respondents in two ways: household surveys of adults aged 18 years or older (face-to-face interviews in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Peru, and Tanzania; telephone interviews in the USA) between Oct 28, 2009, and June 23, 2010; and an open-access web-based survey between July 26, 2010, and May 16, 2011. The surveys used paired comparison questions, in which respondents considered two hypothetical individuals with different, randomly selected health states and indicated which person they regarded as healthier. The web survey added questions about population health equivalence, which compared the overall health benefits of different life-saving or disease-prevention programmes. We analysed paired comparison responses with probit regression analysis on all 220 unique states in the study. We used results from the population health equivalence responses to anchor the results from the paired comparisons on the disability weight scale from 0 (implying no loss of health) to 1 (implying a health loss equivalent to death). Additionally, we compared new disability weights with those used in WHO's most recent update of the Global Burden of Disease Study for 2004. 13 902 individuals participated in household surveys and 16 328 in the web survey. Analysis of paired comparison responses indicated a high degree of consistency across surveys: correlations between individual survey results and results from analysis of the pooled dataset were 0·9 or higher in all surveys except in Bangladesh (r=0·75). Most of the 220 disability weights were located on the mild end of the severity scale, with 58 (26%) having weights below 0·05. Five (11%) states had weights below 0·01, such as mild anaemia, mild hearing or vision loss, and secondary infertility. The health states with the highest disability weights were acute schizophrenia (0·76) and severe multiple sclerosis (0·71). We identified a broad pattern of agreement between the old and new weights (r=0·70), particularly in the moderate-to-severe range. However, in the mild range below 0·2, many states had significantly lower weights in our study than previously. This study represents the most extensive empirical effort as yet to measure disability weights. By contrast with the popular hypothesis that disability assessments vary widely across samples with different cultural environments, we have reported strong evidence of highly consistent results. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Female sex workers (FSWs) are at high risk of HIV infection. Our objective was to determine the proportion of HIV prevalence in the general female adult population that is attributable to the occupational exposure of female sex work, due to unprotected sexual intercourse. Population attributable fractions of HIV prevalence due to female sex work were estimated for 2011. A systematic search was conducted to retrieve required input data from available sources. Data gaps of HIV prevalence in FSWs for 2011 were filled using multilevel modeling and multivariate linear regression. The fraction of HIV attributable to female sex work was estimated as the excess HIV burden in FSWs deducting the HIV burden in FSWs due to injecting drug use. An estimated fifteen percent of HIV in the general female adult population is attributable to (unsafe) female sex work. The region with the highest attributable fraction is Sub Saharan Africa, but the burden is also substantial for the Caribbean, Latin America and South and Southeast Asia. We estimate 106,000 deaths from HIV are a result of female sex work globally, 98,000 of which occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. If HIV prevalence in other population groups originating from sexual contact with FSWs had been considered, the overall attributable burden would probably be much larger. Female sex work is an important contributor to HIV transmission and the global HIV burden. Effective HIV prevention measures exist and have been successfully targeted at key populations in many settings. These must be scaled up. FSWs suffer from high HIV burden and are a crucial core population for HIV transmission. Surveillance, prevention and treatment of HIV in FSWs should benefit both this often neglected vulnerable group and the general population.

ObjectivesTo determine the rates of muscle strain injury recurrence over time after return to play in Australian football and to quantify risk factors.MethodsWe analysed Australian Football League player data from 1992 to 2014 for rates of the four major muscle strain injury types (hamstring, quadriceps, calf and groin) diagnosed by team health professionals. Covariates for analysis were: recent history (≤8 weeks) of each of the four muscle strains; non-recent history (>8 weeks) of each; history of hip, knee anterior cruciate ligament, knee cartilage, ankle sprain, concussion or lumbar injury; age; indigenous race; match level and whether a substitute rule was in place.Results3647 (1932 hamstring, 418 quadriceps, 458 calf and 839 groin) muscle strain injuries occurred in 272 759 player matches. For all muscle strains combined, the risk of injury recurrence gradually reduced, with recurrence risks of 9% (hamstring), 5% (quadriceps), 2% (calf) and 6% (groin) in the first match back and remaining elevated for 15 weeks after return to play. The strongest risk factor for each muscle injury type was a recent history of the same injury (hamstring: adjusted OR 13.1, 95% CI 11.5 to 14.9; calf OR 13.3, 95% CI 9.6 to 18.4; quadriceps: OR 25.2, 95% CI 18.8 to 33.8; groin OR 20.6, 95% CI 17.0 to 25.0), followed by non-recent history of the same injury (hamstring: adjusted OR 3.5, 95% CI 3.2 to 3.9; calf OR 4.4, 95% CI 3.6 to 5.4; quadriceps OR 5.2, 95% CI 4.2 to 6.4; groin OR 3.5, 95% CI 3.0 to 4.0). Age was an independent risk factor for calf muscle strains (adjusted OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.3 to 2.0). Recent hamstring injury increased the risk of subsequent quadriceps (adjusted OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2 to 2.7) and calf strains (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2 to 2.6). During the ‘substitute rule’ era (2011–2014), hamstring (adjusted OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.86), groin (OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.93) and quadriceps (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.92) strains were less likely than outside of that era but calf (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.3 to 1.9) strains were more likely than before the substitute rule era.ConclusionRecent injury is the greatest risk factor for the four major muscle strains, with increased risk persisting for 15 weeks after return to play.

IntroductionAnalyses of secular trends in work-related fatal injury in New Zealand have previously only considered the total working population, potentially hiding trends for important subgroups of workers. This paper examines trends in work-related fatalities in worker subgroups between 2005 and 2014 to indicate where workplace safety action should be prioritised.MethodsA dataset of fatally injured workers was created; all persons aged 15–84 years, fatally injured in the period 2005–2014, were identified from mortality records, linked to coronial records which were then reviewed for work relatedness. Poisson regression modelling was used to estimate annual percentage change in rates by age, sex, ethnicity, employment status, industry and occupation.ResultsOverall, worker fatalities decreased by 2.4% (95% CI 0.0% to 4.6%) annually; an average reduction of 18 deaths per year from baseline (2005). Significant declines in annual rates were observed for younger workers (15–29 and 30–49 years), indigenous Māori, those in the public administration and service sector, and those in community and personal service occupations. Increases in annual rates occurred for workers in agriculture and forestry and fisheries sectors and for labourers. Rates of worker deaths in work-traffic settings declined faster than in workplace settings.DiscussionAlthough overall age-standardised rates of work-related fatal injury have been declining, these trends were variable. Sources of injury risk in identifiable subgroups with increases in annual rates need to be urgently addressed. This study demonstrates the need for regular, detailed examination of the secular trends to identify those subgroups of workers requiring further workplace safety attention.

This paper reports on the major findings from the questionnaire component of a cross-sectional survey of the musicians in Australia's eight fulltime professional symphonic and pit orchestras, focusing on performance-related musculoskeletal disorders (PRMDs). METHODS: All musician members of the orchestras participating in this project were invited to complete a self-report survey. The overall response rate was about 70% (n = 377). In addition to general health and experience questions, respondents who reported a current or previous PRMD were asked to report on a range of associated factors. RESULTS: Of the participants, 84% had experienced pain or injuries that had interfered either with playing their instrument or participating in normal orchestral rehearsals and performances. Fifty percent reported having such pain or injury at the time of the survey, mostly with disorders perceived by the musicians to be work-related. Twenty-eight percent had taken at least 1 day off from work for such pain in the previous 18 months. The most common broad sites affected were the trunk (primarily the back), the right upper limb and neck, the left upper limb and neck, and the neck alone, but the relative proportions varied by instrument. Of those musicians who reported at least one episode of pain or injury in the past, less than 50% reported that they had completely recovered. The most commonly cited performance-related factors that had contributed to injury or pain all related to training and playing load (including practice and performance). CONCLUSION: This study provides strong evidence that PRMDs are a common complaint in professional orchestral musicians and identifies a range of factors suggested as contributing to the occurrence or persistence of these disorders.