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The tobacco industry's future depends on increasing tobacco use in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), which face a growing burden of tobacco-related disease, yet have potential to prevent full-scale escalation of this epidemic. To drive up sales the industry markets its products heavily, deliberately targeting non-smokers and keeps prices low until smoking and local economies are sufficiently established to drive prices and profits up. The industry systematically flaunts existing tobacco control legislation and works aggressively to prevent future policies using its resource advantage to present highly misleading economic arguments, rebrand political activities as corporate social responsibility, and establish and use third parties to make its arguments more palatable. Increasingly it is using domestic litigation and international arbitration to bully LMICs from implementing effective policies and hijacking the problem of tobacco smuggling for policy gain, attempting to put itself in control of an illegal trade in which there is overwhelming historical evidence of its complicity. Progress will not be realised until tobacco industry interference is actively addressed as outlined in Article 5.3 of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Exemplar LMICs show this action can be achieved and indicate that exposing tobacco industry misconduct is an essential first step.

Tobacco use, a major preventable risk factor for premature death and morbidity, profoundly shapes individual and household decision-making. Tobacco spending in lower-income economies exacerbates economic strain of the households. To accommodate tobacco costs, many households are forced to reduce essential expenditures on health and education—a phenomenon known as the crowding out effect. This study uses data from Albania’s national Household Budget Survey and applies a three-stage least squares method with instrumental variables to estimate Engel curves to shed light on how tobacco use influences household financial decisions. The findings reveal that tobacco spending significantly reduces expenditures on essential needs such as health, education, housing, and clothing. Additionally, tobacco use shows a positive correlation with alcohol spending, revealing another negative influence of an addictive behavior on household resource allocation. The results emphasize the urgent need for stronger tobacco control measures promote better economic decision-making within households. Such measures would enhance public health, improve economic stability, and encourage more equitable resource distribution.

BackgroundPhilip Morris International, one of the largest transnational cigarette manufacturers, has heavily invested in its new heated tobacco product, IQOS, marketing it aggressively as a less harmful alternative to cigarette smoking. The company’s assertions that the product replaces cigarettes in a market have never been independently tested. The objective of this study is to determine whether introduction of IQOS affected cigarette sales in a large economy.Data and MethodsUsing 2014 to 2018 monthly retailer panel data from Japan, we analyse whether different dates of IQOS introduction across Japan’s regions are reflected in the patterns of cigarette sales in those regions. A series of placebo models are estimated to test if events other than IQOS introduction could have better explained the observed trends in cigarette sales.ResultsCigarette sales begin to substantially decline at the time of the introduction of IQOS in each of 11 Japanese regions (Chow tests p<0.001). IQOS introduction, which varied across regions, better predicted the timing of cigarette sales decline than any one time applied to all regions simultaneously (a national-level exogenous shock) and than nearly all possible rearrangements of the true IQOS introduction months among the regions (exact permutation test’s p value from 0.02 to 0.13, depending on the study approach).ConclusionsThe introduction of IQOS likely reduced cigarette sales in Japan. The net population health impact, however, cannot be assessed without resolving several key uncertainties related to the direct harms of IQOS and the precise patterns of both smoking and IQOS use.

BackgroundAlbania has one of the highest smoking prevalence in Europe especially among the youth. There is a lack of evidence in Albania, as well as in most of Eastern Europe and middle-income countries, regarding the effect of price on smoking experimentation.ObjectiveThe study aims to assess the effect of price and tobacco control policies on youth smoking experimentation in Albania.MethodsWe used microdata from the Global Youth Tobacco Survey in Albania for 2004, 2009, 2015 and 2020. We constructed a pseudo-longitudinal dataset and estimated a split-population model to assess the hazard of smoking experimentation.ResultsPrice is a significant predictor of smoking experimentation among teenagers in Albania for both males and females (p<0.001). Being male increases the odds for smoking experimentation by more than 50% as compared with females (p<0.001), whereas females appear to be more price sensitive. Peer and parent smoking are also important determinants for smoking experimentation. Introducing penalties for smokers and legal entities violating smoke-free policies implemented in 2014 is also associated with a lower hazard of smoking experimentation.ConclusionPrice is a significant predictor of smoking experimentation among teenagers in Albania for both males and females. A combination of increasing taxes and strengthening the rule of law to control tobacco use in public spaces, in addition to public awareness campaigns targeting both youth and smoking parents, could help to significantly reduce the probability of smoking experimentation.

The objective of this article is to examine the factors associated with smoking of flavor capsule cigarettes in Chile, where the popularity of these products has increased dramatically, a trend increasingly observed across the world. A representative poll of 851 smokers in Metropolitan Santiago de Chile, which comprises 40% of the country's total population, was implemented in mid-2017. Smokers were given a questionnaire that collected socio-demographic information and information on smoking patterns. Four discrete-choice models were estimated on the decision to smoke flavor capsule cigarettes to better understand the statistical relationships between traits of smokers and the consumption of flavor capsule cigarettes. The results of these models show that each year less in a smoker's age increases the likelihood of preferring flavor capsule cigarettes by, on average, between 0.8 and 0.9 percentage points. If the smoker is a woman, the likelihood of preferring flavor capsule cigarettes increases between 13.4 and 13.5 percentage points. Results also reveal a positive relationship between the price paid and the consumption of flavor capsule cigarettes, indicating that these cigarettes tend to be more expensive. There is no statistical relationship between participation in the labor market and smoking these products. Chile has the world's highest prevalence of flavor capsule cigarette smoking, which is concentrated among young people (25 years and younger) and females. No relationship between socioeconomic status and use of these products is found, though there are indications that such relationship may exist, as they were at the time of study 14% more expensive, on average, than conventional non-flavored cigarettes. As in most countries, the tobacco industry appears to be deliberately promoting these products with the goal of halting or slowing the decline in cigarette consumption in Chile. Thus, to reduce cigarette consumption (especially among youth), restricting or forbidding cigarette flavorings of all types, including flavor capsules, would be an effective strategy.

Introduction: Some low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) struggle to implement smoke-free policies. We sought to review the academic and gray literature, and propose a research agenda to improve implementation of smoke-free policies and make them more effective in LMICs. Methods: We reviewed 10 databases for variations of (‘implementation’ /‘enforcement’ /‘compliance’) and (‘smoke-free’ /‘ban’ /‘restriction’) and (‘tobacco’ /‘smoking’). We also reviewed cited sources and the gray literature including non-governmental organization reports. We included articles that described problems that arose, attempted solutions, lessons learned, and research questions posed regarding smoke-free policy implementation in LMICs. We excluded studies of high-income countries, institution-level implementation, voluntary smoke-free policies, smoke-free homes, and outdoor smoke-free policies. Results: The academic literature review led to 4931 unique articles, reduced to 1541 after title screening, 331 after abstract screening, and 101 after full-text review. The citation and gray literature review led to an additional 179 publications of which 67 met the inclusion criteria. In total we retained 168 sources. We conducted a narrative review and synthesis of the literature, extracting key themes and noting research gaps. Conclusions: We find that progress is urgently needed in five categories: identifying the critical lessons learned for effective implementation, evaluating different enforcement approaches, learning how to rejuvenate stalled smoke-free policies, learning how to increase ground-level will to enforce policies, and developing a conceptual framework that explains implementation. Investigation into these topics can improve implementation of smoke-free policies in LMICs.

Unhealthy foods and tobacco remain the leading causes of non-communicable disease (NCDs). These are key agricultural commodities for many countries, and NCD prevention policy needs to consider how to influence production towards healthier options. There has been little scholarship to bridge the agriculture with the public health literature that seeks to address the supply of healthy commodities. This scoping review synthesizes the literature on government agricultural policy and production in order to 1) present a typology of policies used to influence agricultural production, 2) to provide a preliminary overview of the ways that impact is assessed in this literature, and 3) to bring this literature into conversation with the literature on food and tobacco supply. This review analyzes the literature on government agricultural policy and production. Articles written in English and published between January 1997 and April 2018 (20-year range) were included. Only quantitative evaluations were included. Studies that collected qualitative data to supplement the quantitative analysis were also included. One hundred and three articles were included for data extraction. The following information was extracted: article details (e.g., author, title, journal), policy details (e.g., policy tools, goals, context), methods used to evaluate the policy (e.g., outcomes evaluated, sample size, limitations), and study findings. Fifty four studies examined the impact of policy on agricultural production. The remaining articles assessed land allocation ( n  = 25) (e.g., crop diversification, acreage expansion), efficiency ( n  = 23), rates of employment including on- and off-farm employment ( n  = 18), and farm income ( n  = 17) among others. Input supports, output supports and technical support had an impact on production, income and other outcomes. Although there were important exceptions, largely attributed to farm level allocation of labour or resources. Financial supports were most commonly evaluated including cash subsidies, credit, and tax benefits. This type of support resulted in an equal number of studies reporting increased production as those with no effects. This review provides initial extrapolative insights from the general literature on the impact of government policies on agricultural production. This review can inform dialogue between the health and agricultural sector and evaluative research on policy for alternatives to tobacco production and unhealthy food supply.

Economic justification Consumption of unhealthy products is a tremendous and unnecessary burden on fragile health systems and households, and the costs are both direct in the form of increased healthcare costs and indirect, mostly from lower productivity to premature death and increased morbidity. More taxes increases their prices and discourages people from purchasing and consuming them, which in turn addresses the significant health risks associated with tobacco products and SSBs consumption, such as non-communicable diseases, and helps reduce the economic burden on health systems and societies. Sugar-sweetened beverages and weight gain in children and adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

States' decisions not to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) could potentially affect access to care and health status among their low-income residents. The 2010-2012 nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data were analyzed in 2015 to compare 9755 low-income adults aged 18-64 years from Medicaid-expanding states with 7455 adults from nonexpanding states. Multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to evaluate the differences in access to care, receipt of preventive services, quality of care, attitudes about health and self-reported health status by Medicaid expansion status. The differences in care utilization and medical expenditures between the two groups were examined using a 2-part modeling approach. Compared to their counterparts in Medicaid expansion states, low income adults in the nonexpanding states were more likely to be black and reside in rural areas and were less likely to have a usual source of care (prevalence ratio[PR] 0.86, 95% confidence interval[CI] 0.82-0.91) and recommended preventive services such as dental checkups (PR = 0.86; CI = 0.79-0.94), routine checks (PR = 0.89; CI = 0.83-0.95), flu vaccinations (PR = 0.89; CI = 0.81-0.98), and blood pressure checks (PR = 0.96; CI = 0.94-0.99). They also had less care utilization, fewer prescriptions, and less medical expenditures, but more out-of-pocket expenditures (all p-value <0.05). Low-income adults in Medicaid nonexpanding states, who are disproportionately represented by blacks and rural residents, were worse off for multiple health-related outcomes compared to their counterparts in Medicaid expanding states at the baseline of ACA implementation, suggesting that low income adults residing in nonexpanding states may benefit markedly from the expansion of Medicaid.

BackgroundSome scholars suggest that price differences between combustible cigarettes and e-cigarettes could be effective in moving current combustible smokers to e-cigarettes, which could reduce tobacco-related death and disease. Currently, in most jurisdictions, e-cigarettes are not subject to the same excise taxes as combustible cigarettes, potentially providing the category with a price advantage over combustible cigarettes. This paper tests whether e-cigarettes tax advantage has translated into a price advantage.MethodsIn a sample of 45 countries, the price of combustible cigarettes, disposable e-cigarettes and rechargeable cigarettes were compared.ResultsComparable units of combustible cigarettes cost less than disposable e-cigarettes in almost every country in the sample. While the e-liquids consumed in rechargeable e-cigarettes might cost less per comparable unit than combustible cigarettes, the initial cost to purchase a rechargeable e-cigarette presents a significant cost barrier to switching from smoking to vaping.DiscussionExisting prices of e-cigarettes are generally much higher than of combustible cigarettes. If policymakers wish to tax e-cigarettes less than combustibles, forceful policy action—almost certainly through excise taxation—must raise the price of combustible cigarettes beyond the price of using e-cigarettes.