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High thyroid doses due to Iodine-131 (131I) intake among individuals exposed in childhood and adolescence to Chernobyl fallout raise questions about their reliability and their impact on the analysis of the radiation-related risk of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases in the exposed population. In the present study, an in-depth examination was conducted of thyroid doses from 131I intake over 5 Gy calculated for 131 subjects of the Belarusian-American cohort of individuals exposed after the Chernobyl accident. Thyroid doses in this cohort study were estimated based on individual radiation measurements of 131I thyroidal activity and detailed questionnaire data on individual behavior and consumptions of locally produced foodstuffs. Therefore, these doses provide the best basis for assessing reliability. The analysis showed that the result of direct thyroid measurement was mistakenly assigned to three out of 131 study subjects (2.3% of the total), and, therefore, the instrumental thyroid dose for these individuals cannot be correctly estimated. This study confirmed with a high degree of confidence the reliability of thyroid doses due to 131I intake exceeding 5 Gy that were calculated for the Belarusian-American cohort members.

Between 1949 and 1962 the Soviet Union performed atmospheric tests of nuclear weapons at the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site (SNTS) in Kazakhstan, resulting in widespread contamination of the surrounding region with radioactive fallout. Settlements in the southeast Abai oblast of Kazakhstan, close to the border with China, are not thought to have received significant fallout from the SNTS. There is, however, evidence that the study area, including Makanchi, Urdzhar and Taskesken villages, was contaminated by atmospheric nuclear tests performed by China at the Lop Nor NTS between 1964 and 1980. We identified the most reliable data indicating contamination from the Lop Nor tests from archive documents. Prompt sampling of soil performed in the area revealed elevated levels of total beta activity in the days and weeks following the Lop Nor tests. The highest activities were recorded following the thermonuclear tests in June 1967 and June 1973. Tooth enamel dosimetry using electron paramagnetic resonance methods suggests residents of the study area have been exposed to excess doses of 50–60 mGy but provides no information on the source and timing of exposure. Currently, evidence of contamination of the study area from nuclear weapons testing at Lop Nor is based on limited radiation measurement data. Therefore, work will continue on the search for archival data on radiological and meteorological monitoring carried out in the study area at the time of the Lop Nor testing campaign.

Risks of most types of leukemia from exposure to acute high doses of ionizing radiation are well known, but risks associated with protracted exposures, as well as associations between radiation and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), are not clear. We estimated relative risks of CLL and non-CLL from protracted exposures to low-dose ionizing radiation. A nested case-control study was conducted in a cohort of 110,645 Ukrainian cleanup workers of the 1986 Chornobyl nuclear power plant accident. Cases of incident leukemia diagnosed in 1986-2006 were confirmed by a panel of expert hematologists/hematopathologists. Controls were matched to cases on place of residence and year of birth. We estimated individual bone marrow radiation doses by the Realistic Analytical Dose Reconstruction with Uncertainty Estimation (RADRUE) method. We then used a conditional logistic regression model to estimate excess relative risk of leukemia per gray (ERR/Gy) of radiation dose. We found a significant linear dose response for all leukemia [137 cases, ERR/Gy = 1.26 (95% CI: 0.03, 3.58]. There were nonsignificant positive dose responses for both CLL and non-CLL (ERR/Gy = 0.76 and 1.87, respectively). In our primary analysis excluding 20 cases with direct in-person interviews < 2 years from start of chemotherapy with an anomalous finding of ERR/Gy = -0.47 (95% CI: < -0.47, 1.02), the ERR/Gy for the remaining 117 cases was 2.38 (95% CI: 0.49, 5.87). For CLL, the ERR/Gy was 2.58 (95% CI: 0.02, 8.43), and for non-CLL, ERR/Gy was 2.21 (95% CI: 0.05, 7.61). Altogether, 16% of leukemia cases (18% of CLL, 15% of non-CLL) were attributed to radiation exposure. Exposure to low doses and to low dose-rates of radiation from post-Chornobyl cleanup work was associated with a significant increase in risk of leukemia, which was statistically consistent with estimates for the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Based on the primary analysis, we conclude that CLL and non-CLL are both radiosensitive.

The Chernobyl accident on 26 April 1986 led to a sharp increase in thyroid cancer (TC) incidence in the individuals exposed to radiation in childhood. The major risk factor for TC was exposure to Iodine-131 (131I). Here, we estimated the thyroid doses due to 131I intake for 2041 participants of the genome-wide association study of TC in Belarusian people exposed to radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident. The following parameter-values specially developed in this study were used to estimate individual thyroid doses: (i) scaling factors for adjustment of the model-based doses, (ii) age and gender diet to characterize 131I intake, and (iii) area-, age- and gender-specific S-values for the thyroid gland per 131I decay in the thyroid. The most reliable doses were calculated for 103 people with measured 131I thyroid activity (the arithmetic mean of 1.2 Gy, median 0.52 Gy), and 275 individuals with detailed residential history and dietary data (the arithmetic mean of 0.41 Gy, median 0.24 Gy). The arithmetic mean of thyroid doses among all study participants was 0.23 Gy (median 0.082 Gy); the highest individual dose was 9.0 Gy. Special attention was paid to the reliability and validity of the obtained estimates, in particular for the individuals without 131I thyroid activity measurements and individual data on residential history and diet, by comparing those with the doses from other post-Chernobyl epidemiological studies. Overall, the doses estimated in the current study were in reasonable agreement with previously reported thyroid doses. These doses will be used in the genome-wide association study of TC in people exposed in Belarus to 131I after the Chernobyl accident.

Dosimetic uncertainties, particularly those that are shared among subgroups of a study population, can bias, distort or reduce the slope or significance of a dose response. Exposure estimates in studies of health risks from environmental radiation exposures are generally highly uncertain and thus, susceptible to these methodological limitations. An analysis was published in 2008 concerning radiation-related thyroid nodule prevalence in a study population of 2,994 villagers under the age of 21 years old between August 1949 and September 1962 and who lived downwind from the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site in Kazakhstan. This dose-response analysis identified a statistically significant association between thyroid nodule prevalence and reconstructed doses of fallout-related internal and external radiation to the thyroid gland; however, the effects of dosimetric uncertainty were not evaluated since the doses were simple point “best estimates”. In this work, we revised the 2008 study by a comprehensive treatment of dosimetric uncertainties. Our present analysis improves upon the previous study, specifically by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainties in dose estimation and risk analysis, and differs from the 2008 analysis in the following ways: 1. The study population size was reduced from 2,994 to 2,376 subjects, removing 618 persons with uncertain residence histories; 2. Simulation of multiple population dose sets (vectors) was performed using a two-dimensional Monte Carlo dose estimation method; and 3. A Bayesian model averaging approach was employed for evaluating the dose response, explicitly accounting for large and complex uncertainty in dose estimation. The results were compared against conventional regression techniques. The Bayesian approach utilizes 5,000 independent realizations of population dose vectors, each of which corresponds to a set of conditional individual median internal and external doses for the 2,376 subjects. These 5,000 population dose vectors reflect uncertainties in dosimetric parameters, partly shared and partly independent, among individual members of the study population. Risk estimates for thyroid nodules from internal irradiation were higher than those published in 2008, which results, to the best of our knowledge, from explicitly accounting for dose uncertainty. In contrast to earlier findings, the use of Bayesian methods led to the conclusion that the biological effectiveness for internal and external dose was similar. Estimates of excess relative risk per unit dose (ERR/Gy) for males (177 thyroid nodule cases) were almost 30 times those for females (571 cases) and were similar to those reported for thyroid cancers related to childhood exposures to external and internal sources in other studies. For confirmed cases of papillary thyroid cancers (3 in males, 18 in females), the ERR/Gy was also comparable to risk estimates from other studies, but not significantly different from zero. These findings represent the first reported dose response for a radiation epidemiologic study considering all known sources of shared and unshared errors in dose estimation and using a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method for analysis of the dose response.

This article presents a methodology for assessing the radiation doses in an urban environment due to external irradiation from radionuclides deposited on the ground and other surfaces as well as from a passing radioactive cloud. The approach was developed and applied to assess individual doses of residents of the town of Pripyat who were evacuated shortly after the Chernobyl accident. Typically, the so-called location factor is defined as the ratio of the dose rate at a point of exposure and the dose rate at an undisturbed lawn far from any buildings. The present study used a new definition of the location factor as a regular four-dimensional grid of ratios of air kerma rates indoors and outdoors distributed in space and time. The location factors were calculated for two scenarios: outdoor and indoor values for typical apartments and buildings in Pripyat. Indoor location factors varied within two orders of magnitude depending on the floor of residence and place of staying inside the apartment. Values of the indoor location factor differed during the daytime and night by a factor of 30–40 depending on the behaviour of an individual within the apartment. Both, outdoor and indoor location factors decreased with decreasing distances between buildings. It was shown that during the first 4 days after the accident, air kerma rates in Pripyat were governed by the radionuclides deposited on the ground surface, and not by radionuclides in the cloud. Specifically, the contribution of the radioactive cloud to air kerma rate was maximal (i.e., 2.3%) on the morning of 28 April 1986. The methodology and results of this study are currently being used to reconstruct the radiation gonadal dose for the subjects of the American–Ukrainian study of parental irradiation in Chernobyl cleanup workers and evacuees for investigating germline mutations in their offspring.

Abstract This study revised the thyroid doses for 2582 Ukrainian in utero cohort members exposed to Chornobyl fallout (the Ukrainian in utero cohort) based on revision of: (i) 131I thyroid activity measured in the Ukrainian population, (ii) thyroid dosimetry system for entire Ukraine, and (iii) 131I ground deposition densities in Ukraine. Other major improvements included: (i) assessment of uncertainties in the thyroid doses considering shared and unshared error, and (ii) accounting for intake of short-lived radioisotopes of tellurium and iodine (132Te+132I and 133I). Intake of 131I was the major pathway for thyroid exposure, its median contribution to the thyroid dose was 97.4%. The mean prenatal and postnatal thyroid dose from 131I was 87 mGy (median = 17 mGy), higher than previous deterministic dose of 72 mGy (median = 12 mGy). For 39 individuals (1.5%) the dose exceeded 1.0 Gy, while the highest dose among the cohort members was 2.7 Gy. The geometric standard deviation (GSD) of 1000 individual stochastic doses varied from 1.9 to 5.2 with a mean of 3.1 and a median of 3.2. The lowest uncertainty (mean GSD = 2.3, median GSD = 2.2) was found for the subjects whose mothers were measured for 131I thyroid activity, while for individuals, whose mothers were not measured, the mean and median GSDs were 3.4. Uncertainties in thyroid doses were driven by shared errors associated with the parameters of the ecological model.

A large excess risk of thyroid cancer was observed among Belarusian/Russian/Baltic Chornobyl cleanup workers. A more recent study of Ukraine cleanup workers found more modest excess risks of thyroid cancer. Dose errors in this data are substantial, associated with model uncertainties and questionnaire response. Regression calibration is often used for dose-error adjustment, but may not adequately account for the full error distribution. We aimed to examine the impact of exposure-assessment uncertainties on thyroid cancer among Ukrainian cleanup workers using Monte Carlo maximum likelihood, and compare with results derived using regression calibration. Analyses assessed the sensitivity of results to various components of internal and external dose. Regression calibration yielded an excess odds ratio per Gy (EOR/Gy) of 0.437 (95% CI − 0.042, 1.577, p = 0.100), compared with the EOR/Gy using Monte Carlo maximum likelihood of 0.517 (95% CI − 0.039, 2.035, p = 0.093). Trend risk estimates for follicular morphology tumors exhibited much more extreme effects of full-likelihood adjustment, the EOR/Gy using regression calibration of 3.224 (95% CI − 0.082, 30.615, p = 0.068) becoming ~ 50% larger, 4.708 (95% CI − 0.075, 85.143, p = 0.066) when using Monte Carlo maximum likelihood. Results were sensitive to omission of external components of dose. In summary, use of Monte Carlo maximum likelihood adjustment for dose error led to increases in trend risks, particularly for follicular morphology thyroid cancers, where risks increased by ~ 50%, and were borderline significant. The unexpected finding for follicular tumors needs to be replicated in other exposed groups.

Thyroid dysfunction after exposure to low or moderate doses of radioactive iodine-131 (131I) at a young age is a public health concern. However, quantitative data are sparse concerning 131I-related risk of these common diseases. Our goal was to assess the prevalence of thyroid dysfunction in association with 131I exposure during childhood (≤ 18 years) due to fallout from the Chernobyl accident. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of hypothyroidism, hyperthyroidism, autoimmune thyroiditis (AIT), serum concentrations of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), and autoantibodies to thyroperoxidase (ATPO) in relation to measurement-based 131I dose estimates in a Belarusian cohort of 10,827 individuals screened for various thyroid diseases. Mean age at exposure (± SD) was 8.2 ± 5.0 years. Mean (median) estimated 131I thyroid dose was 0.54 (0.23) Gy (range, 0.001-26.6 Gy). We found significant positive associations of 131I dose with hypothyroidism (mainly subclinical and antibody-negative) and serum TSH concentration. The excess odds ratio per 1 Gy for hypothyroidism was 0.34 (95% CI: 0.15, 0.62) and varied significantly by age at exposure and at examination, presence of goiter, and urban/rural residency. We found no evidence of positive associations with antibody-positive hypothyroidism, hyperthyroidism, AIT, or elevated ATPO. The association between 131I dose and hypothyroidism in the Belarusian cohort is consistent with that previously reported for a Ukrainian cohort and strengthens evidence of the effect of environmental 131I exposure during childhood on hypothyroidism, but not other thyroid outcomes.