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New Zealand, a geographically remote Pacific island with easily sealable borders, implemented a nationwide ‘lockdown’ of all non-essential services to curb the spread of COVID-19. Here, we generate 649 SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences from infected patients in New Zealand with samples collected during the ‘first wave’, representing 56% of all confirmed cases in this time period. Despite its remoteness, the viruses imported into New Zealand represented nearly all of the genomic diversity sequenced from the global virus population. These data helped to quantify the effectiveness of public health interventions. For example, the effective reproductive number, R e of New Zealand’s largest cluster decreased from 7 to 0.2 within the first week of lockdown. Similarly, only 19% of virus introductions into New Zealand resulted in ongoing transmission of more than one additional case. Overall, these results demonstrate the utility of genomic pathogen surveillance to inform public health and disease mitigation. New Zealand implemented stringent COVID-19 control measures early after identification of its first case. Here, the authors perform whole genome sequencing of samples taken until 22 May 2020 and find high viral diversity indicative of multiple separate introductions and limited community transmission.

Elaboration of Bayesian phylogenetic inference methods has continued at pace in recent years with major new advances in nearly all aspects of the joint modelling of evolutionary data. It is increasingly appreciated that some evolutionary questions can only be adequately answered by combining evidence from multiple independent sources of data, including genome sequences, sampling dates, phenotypic data, radiocarbon dates, fossil occurrences, and biogeographic range information among others. Including all relevant data into a single joint model is very challenging both conceptually and computationally. Advanced computational software packages that allow robust development of compatible (sub-)models which can be composed into a full model hierarchy have played a key role in these developments. Developing such software frameworks is increasingly a major scientific activity in its own right, and comes with specific challenges, from practical software design, development and engineering challenges to statistical and conceptual modelling challenges. BEAST 2 is one such computational software platform, and was first announced over 4 years ago. Here we describe a series of major new developments in the BEAST 2 core platform and model hierarchy that have occurred since the first release of the software, culminating in the recent 2.5 release.

Ancient genomes can narrow the search for the sources of zoonotic transmissions Understanding the emergence and evolution of human pathogens plays a pivotal role in epidemiology and in predicting the trajectories of outbreaks. The application of phylogenetic methods to pathogen genomes has provided a range of insights into their evolutionary dynamics ( 1 ). In many cases, phylogenetic methods can use the sampling dates of the genomes to reconstruct the evolutionary time scales of viruses, bacteria, and other pathogens. Ancient genomes can increase the power of these approaches by narrowing the estimated time window of pathogen emergence and by augmenting the evolutionary temporal signal in the genetic data. On page 1367 of this issue, Düx et al. ( 2 ) show how a century-old genome of Measles morbillivirus , extracted from human lung tissue, can help efforts to pinpoint the time of emergence of measles.

Group A Streptococcus (GAS; Streptococcus pyogenes ) is a bacterial pathogen for which a commercial vaccine for humans is not available. Employing the advantages of high-throughput DNA sequencing technology to vaccine design, we have analyzed 2,083 globally sampled GAS genomes. The global GAS population structure reveals extensive genomic heterogeneity driven by homologous recombination and overlaid with high levels of accessory gene plasticity. We identified the existence of more than 290 clinically associated genomic phylogroups across 22 countries, highlighting challenges in designing vaccines of global utility. To determine vaccine candidate coverage, we investigated all of the previously described GAS candidate antigens for gene carriage and gene sequence heterogeneity. Only 15 of 28 vaccine antigen candidates were found to have both low naturally occurring sequence variation and high (>99%) coverage across this diverse GAS population. This technological platform for vaccine coverage determination is equally applicable to prospective GAS vaccine antigens identified in future studies. Analyses of 2,083 globally distributed group A Streptococcus (GAS) genomes enable the development of a compendium of all GAS vaccine antigen sequences, providing a platform for population-genomics-informed vaccine design.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1006780.].

The factors that determine the pattern and rate of spread of influenza virus at a continental-scale are uncertain. Although recent work suggests that influenza epidemics in the United States exhibit a strong geographical correlation, the spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza in Australia, a country and continent of approximately similar size and climate complexity but with a far smaller population, are not known. Using a unique combination of large-scale laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance comprising >450,000 entries and genomic sequence data we determined the local-level spatial diffusion of this important human pathogen nationwide in Australia. We used laboratory-confirmed influenza data to characterize the spread of influenza virus across Australia during 2007-2016. The onset of established epidemics varied across seasons, with highly synchronized epidemics coinciding with the emergence of antigenically distinct viruses, particularly during the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. The onset of epidemics was largely synchronized between the most populous cities, even those separated by distances of >3000 km and those that experience vastly diverse climates. In addition, by analyzing global phylogeographic patterns we show that the synchronized dissemination of influenza across Australian cities involved multiple introductions from the global influenza population, coupled with strong domestic connectivity, rather than through the distinct radial patterns of geographic dispersal that are driven by work-flow transmission as observed in the United States. In addition, by comparing the spatial structure of influenza A and B, we found that these viruses tended to occupy different geographic regions, and peak in different seasons, perhaps indicative of moderate cross-protective immunity or viral interference effects. The highly synchronized outbreaks of influenza virus at a continental-scale revealed here highlight the importance of coordinated public health responses in the event of the emergence of a novel, human-to-human transmissible, virus.

The natural evolution of rabies virus (RABV) provides a potent example of multiple host shifts and an important opportunity to determine the mechanisms that underpin viral emergence. Using 321 genome sequences spanning an unprecedented diversity of RABV, we compared evolutionary rates and selection pressures in viruses sampled from multiple primary host shifts that occurred on various continents. Two major phylogenetic groups, bat-related RABV and dog-related RABV, experiencing markedly different evolutionary dynamics were identified. While no correlation between time and genetic divergence was found in bat-related RABV, the evolution of dog-related RABV followed a generally clock-like structure, although with a relatively low evolutionary rate. Subsequent molecular clock dating indicated that dog-related RABV likely underwent a rapid global spread following the intensification of intercontinental trade starting in the 15th century. Strikingly, although dog RABV has jumped to various wildlife species from the order Carnivora, we found no clear evidence that these host-jumping events involved adaptive evolution, with RABV instead characterized by strong purifying selection, suggesting that ecological processes also play an important role in shaping patterns of emergence. However, specific amino acid changes were associated with the parallel emergence of RABV in ferret-badgers in Asia, and some host shifts were associated with increases in evolutionary rate, particularly in the ferret-badger and mongoose, implying that changes in host species can have important impacts on evolutionary dynamics.

Australia’s response to the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) pandemic led to effective control of HIV transmission and one of the world’s lowest HIV incidence rates—0.14%. Although there has been a recent decline in new HIV diagnoses in New South Wales (NSW), the most populous state in Australia, there has been a concomitant increase with non-B subtype infections, particularly for the HIV-1 circulating recombinant form CRF01_AE. This aforementioned CRF01_AE sampled in NSW, were combined with those sampled globally to identify NSW-specific viral clades. The population growth of these clades was assessed in two-year period intervals from 2009 to 2017. Overall, 109 NSW-specific clades were identified, most comprising pairs of sequences; however, five large clades comprising ≥10 sequences were also found. Forty-four clades grew over time with one or two sequences added to each in different two-year periods. Importantly, while 10 of these clades have seemingly discontinued, the remaining 34 were still active in 2016/2017. Seven such clades each comprised ≥10 sequences, and are representative of individual sub-epidemics in NSW. Thus, although the majority of new CRF01_AE infections were associated with small clades that rarely establish ongoing chains of local transmission, individual sub-epidemics are present and should be closely monitored.

Australia’s response to the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) pandemic led to effective control of HIV transmission and one of the world’s lowest HIV incidence rates—0.14%. Although there has been a recent decline in new HIV diagnoses in New South Wales (NSW), the most populous state in Australia, there has been a concomitant increase with non-B subtype infections, particularly for the HIV-1 circulating recombinant form CRF01_(A)E. This aforementioned CRF01_(A)E sampled in NSW, were combined with those sampled globally to identify NSW-specific viral clades. The population growth of these clades was assessed in two-year period intervals from 2009 to 2017. Overall, 109 NSW-specific clades were identified, most comprising pairs of sequences; however, five large clades comprising ≥10 sequences were also found. Forty-four clades grew over time with one or two sequences added to each in different two-year periods. Importantly, while 10 of these clades have seemingly discontinued, the remaining 34 were still active in 2016/2017. Seven such clades each comprised ≥10 sequences, and are representative of individual sub-epidemics in NSW. Thus, although the majority of new CRF01_(A)E infections were associated with small clades that rarely establish ongoing chains of local transmission, individual sub-epidemics are present and should be closely monitored.