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Binary diagnosis of coronary artery disease does not preserve the complexity of disease or quantify its severity or its associated risk with death; hence, a quantitative marker of coronary artery disease is warranted. We evaluated a quantitative marker of coronary artery disease derived from probabilities of a machine learning model. In this cohort study, we developed and validated a coronary artery disease-predictive machine learning model using 95 935 electronic health records and assessed its probabilities as in-silico scores for coronary artery disease (ISCAD; range 0 [lowest probability] to 1 [highest probability]) in participants in two longitudinal biobank cohorts. We measured the association of ISCAD with clinical outcomes—namely, coronary artery stenosis, obstructive coronary artery disease, multivessel coronary artery disease, all-cause death, and coronary artery disease sequelae. Among 95 935 participants, 35 749 were from the BioMe Biobank (median age 61 years [IQR 18]; 14 599 [41%] were male and 21 150 [59%] were female; 5130 [14%] were with diagnosed coronary artery disease) and 60 186 were from the UK Biobank (median age 62 [15] years; 25 031 [42%] male and 35 155 [58%] female; 8128 [14%] with diagnosed coronary artery disease). The model predicted coronary artery disease with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0·95 (95% CI 0·94–0·95; sensitivity of 0·94 [0·94–0·95] and specificity of 0·82 [0·81–0·83]) and 0·93 (0·92–0·93; sensitivity of 0·90 [0·89–0·90] and specificity of 0·88 [0·87–0·88]) in the BioMe validation and holdout sets, respectively, and 0·91 (0·91–0·91; sensitivity of 0·84 [0·83–0·84] and specificity of 0·83 [0·82–0·83]) in the UK Biobank external test set. ISCAD captured coronary artery disease risk from known risk factors, pooled cohort equations, and polygenic risk scores. Coronary artery stenosis increased quantitatively with ascending ISCAD quartiles (increase per quartile of 12 percentage points), including risk of obstructive coronary artery disease, multivessel coronary artery disease, and stenosis of major coronary arteries. Hazard ratios (HRs) and prevalence of all-cause death increased stepwise over ISCAD deciles (decile 1: HR 1·0 [95% CI 1·0–1·0], 0·2% prevalence; decile 6: 11 [3·9–31], 3·1% prevalence; and decile 10: 56 [20–158], 11% prevalence). A similar trend was observed for recurrent myocardial infarction. 12 (46%) undiagnosed individuals with high ISCAD (≥0·9) had clinical evidence of coronary artery disease according to the 2014 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force guidelines. Electronic health record-based machine learning was used to generate an in-silico marker for coronary artery disease that can non-invasively quantify atherosclerosis and risk of death on a continuous spectrum, and identify underdiagnosed individuals. National Institutes of Health.

It has been suggested that neuronal hyperexcitability contributes to Alzheimer’s disease (AD), so we asked how hyperexcitability develops in a common mouse model of β-amyloid neuropathology - Tg2576 mice. Using video-EEG recordings, we found synchronized, large amplitude potentials resembling interictal spikes (IIS) in epilepsy at just 5 weeks of age, long before memory impairments or β-amyloid deposition. Seizures were not detected, but they did occur later in life, suggesting that IIS are possibly the earliest stage of hyperexcitability. Interestingly, IIS primarily occurred during rapid-eye movement (REM) sleep, which is notable because REM is associated with increased cholinergic tone and cholinergic impairments are implicated in AD. Although previous studies suggest that cholinergic antagonists would worsen pathophysiology, the muscarinic antagonist atropine reduced IIS frequency. In addition, we found IIS occurred in APP51 mice which overexpress wild type (WT)-APP, although not as uniformly or as early in life as Tg2576 mice. Taken together with results from prior studies, the data suggest that surprising and multiple mechanisms contribute to hyperexcitability. The data also suggest that IIS may be a biomarker for early detection of AD.

Background Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified common variants associated with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). However, rare coding variant studies have been limited by phenotyping challenges and small sample sizes. We test associations of rare and ultra-rare coding variants with proton density fat fraction (PDFF) and MASLD case–control status in 736,010 participants of diverse ancestries from the UK Biobank, All of Us, and BioMe and performed a trans-ancestral meta-analysis. We then developed models to accurately predict PDFF and MASLD status in the UK Biobank and tested associations with these predicted phenotypes to increase statistical power. Results The trans-ancestral meta-analysis with PDFF and MASLD case–control status identifies two single variants and two gene-level associations in APOB , CDH5 , MYCBP2 , and XAB2 . Association testing with predicted phenotypes, which replicates more known genetic variants from GWAS than true phenotypes, identifies 16 single variants and 11 gene-level associations implicating 23 additional genes. Two variants were polymorphic only among African ancestry participants and several associations showed significant heterogeneity in ancestry and sex-stratified analyses. In total, we identified 27 genes, of which 3 are monogenic causes of steatosis ( APOB , G6PC1 , PPARG ), 4 were previously associated with MASLD ( APOB , APOC3 , INSR , PPARG ), and 23 had supporting clinical, experimental, and/or genetic evidence. Conclusions Our results suggest that trans-ancestral association analyses can identify ancestry-specific rare and ultra-rare coding variants in MASLD pathogenesis. Furthermore, we demonstrate the utility of machine learning in genetic investigations of difficult-to-phenotype diseases in trans-ancestral biobanks.

Many drug failures in clinical trials are due to inadequate safety profiles. We developed an in-silico side effect genetic priority score (SE-GPS) that leverages human genetic evidence to inform side effect risk for a given drug target. We construct the SE-GPS in the Open Target dataset using post-marketing side effect data, externally test it in OnSIDES using side effects reported from drug labels and then generate a SE-GPS for 19,422 protein coding genes and 502 phecodes, of which 1.7% had a SE-GPS > 0. To consider drug mechanism, we incorporated the direction of genetic effect into a directional version of the score called the SE-GPS-DOE. We observe that restricting to at least two lines of genetic evidence conferred a 2.3- and 2.5-fold increased risk in side effects in Open Targets and OnSIDES respectively, with increased enrichments in severe drugs. We make all predictions publicly available in a web portal. Here the authors develop a genetic priority score to predict side effects by integrating multiple lines of genetic evidence. By applying this score, they provide evidence of known side effects and suggest ones with no clinical trial evidence.

Identifying genetic drivers of chronic diseases is necessary for drug discovery. Here, we develop a machine learning-assisted genetic priority score, which we call ML-GPS, that incorporates genetic associations with predicted disease phenotypes to enhance target discovery. First, we construct gradient boosting models to predict 112 chronic disease phecodes in the UK Biobank and analyze associations of predicted and observed phenotypes with common, rare, and ultra-rare variants to model the allelic series. We integrate these associations with existing evidence using gradient boosting with continuous feature encoding to construct ML-GPS, training it to predict drug indications in Open Targets and externally testing it in SIDER. We then generate ML-GPS predictions for 2,362,636 gene-phecode pairs. We find that the use of predicted phenotypes, which identify substantially more genetic associations than observed phenotypes across the allele frequency spectrum, significantly improves the performance of ML-GPS. ML-GPS increases coverage of drug targets, with the top 1% of all scores providing support for 15,077 gene-phecode pairs that previously had no support. ML-GPS can also identify well-known target-disease relationships, promising targets without indicated drugs, and targets for several drugs in clinical trials, including LRRK2 inhibitors for Parkinson’s disease and olpasiran for cardiovascular disease. Here, the authors introduce ML-GPS, a machine learning framework that prioritizes drug targets for 112 chronic diseases and integrates genetic associations with predicted phenotypes.

Systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases (SARDs) can lead to irreversible damage if left untreated, yet these patients often endure long diagnostic journeys before being diagnosed and treated. Machine learning may help overcome the challenges of diagnosing SARDs and inform clinical decision-making. Here, we developed and tested a machine learning model to identify patients who should receive rheumatological evaluation for SARDs using longitudinal electronic health records of 161,584 individuals from two institutions. The model demonstrated high performance for predicting cases of autoantibody-tested individuals in a validation set, an external test set, and an independent cohort with a broader case definition. This approach identified more individuals for autoantibody testing compared with current clinical standards and a greater proportion of autoantibody carriers among those tested. Diagnoses of SARDs and other autoimmune conditions increased with higher model probabilities. The model detected a need for autoantibody testing and rheumatology encounters up to five years before the test date and assessment date, respectively. Altogether, these findings illustrate that the clinical manifestations of a diverse array of autoimmune conditions are detectable in electronic health records using machine learning, which may help systematize and accelerate autoimmune testing. Early diagnosis can significantly improve treatment options and prevent severe organ damage in individuals with autoimmune diseases. Here, the authors develop a machine learning model that uses electronic health records to identify patients with clinical suspicion of autoimmune diseases.

Although a great deal of information is available about the circuitry of the mossy cells (MCs) of the dentate gyrus (DG) hilus, their activity in vivo is not clear. The immediate early gene c-fos can be used to gain insight into the activity of MCs in vivo, because c-fos protein expression reflects increased neuronal activity. In prior work, it was identified that control rats that were perfusion-fixed after removal from their home cage exhibited c-fos immunoreactivity (ir) in the DG in a spatially stereotyped pattern: ventral MCs and dorsal granule cells (GCs) expressed c-fos protein (Duffy et al., Hippocampus 23:649–655, 2013 ). In this study, we hypothesized that restraint stress would alter c-fos-ir, because MCs express glucocorticoid type 2 receptors and the DG is considered to be involved in behaviors related to stress or anxiety. We show that acute restraint using a transparent nose cone for just 10 min led to reduced c-fos-ir in ventral MCs compared to control rats. In these comparisons, c-fos-ir was evaluated 30 min after the 10 min-long period of restraint, and if evaluation was later than 30 min c-fos-ir was no longer suppressed. Granule cells (GCs) also showed suppressed c-fos-ir after acute restraint, but it was different than MCs, because the suppression persisted for over 30 min after the restraint. We conclude that c-fos protein expression is rapidly and transiently reduced in ventral hilar MCs after a brief period of restraint, and suppressed longer in dorsal GCs.

Studies have shown that drug targets with human genetic support are more likely to succeed in clinical trials. Hence, a tool integrating genetic evidence to prioritize drug target genes is beneficial for drug discovery. We built a genetic priority score (GPS) by integrating eight genetic features with drug indications from the Open Targets and SIDER databases. The top 0.83%, 0.28% and 0.19% of the GPS conferred a 5.3-, 9.9- and 11.0-fold increased effect of having an indication, respectively. In addition, we observed that targets in the top 0.28% of the score were 1.7-, 3.7- and 8.8-fold more likely to advance from phase I to phases II, III and IV, respectively. Complementary to the GPS, we incorporated the direction of genetic effect and drug mechanism into a directional version of the score called the GPS with direction of effect. We applied our method to 19,365 protein-coding genes and 399 drug indications and made all results available through a web portal. A human genetics-informed drug prioritization tool, genetic priority score (GPS), combines genetic features and drug datasets. GPS-supported indications are more likely to progress through clinical trials, suggesting the utility of this score for target prioritization.

Coronary artery disease (CAD) exists on a spectrum of disease represented by a combination of risk factors and pathogenic processes. An in silico score for CAD built using machine learning and clinical data in electronic health records captures disease progression, severity and underdiagnosis on this spectrum and could enhance genetic discovery efforts for CAD. Here we tested associations of rare and ultrarare coding variants with the in silico score for CAD in the UK Biobank, All of Us Research Program and Bio Me Biobank. We identified associations in 17 genes; of these, 14 show at least moderate levels of prior genetic, biological and/or clinical support for CAD. We also observed an excess of ultrarare coding variants in 321 aggregated CAD genes, suggesting more ultrarare variant associations await discovery. These results expand our understanding of the genetic etiology of CAD and illustrate how digital markers can enhance genetic association investigations for complex diseases. A machine learning-based, continuous in silico coronary artery disease (CAD) score built using electronic health record data is applied to rare variant association analysis of CAD, implicating novel candidate genes and biological mechanisms.

Causality between plasma triglyceride (TG) levels and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk remains controversial despite more than four decades of study and two recent landmark trials, STRENGTH, and REDUCE-IT. Further unclear is the association between TG levels and non-atherosclerotic diseases across organ systems. Here, we conducted a phenome-wide, two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis using inverse-variance weighted (IVW) regression to systematically infer the causal effects of plasma TG levels on 2600 disease traits in the European ancestry population of UK Biobank. For replication, we externally tested 221 nominally significant associations (p<0.05) in an independent cohort from FinnGen. To account for potential horizontal pleiotropy and the influence of invalid instrumental variables, we performed sensitivity analyses using MR-Egger regression, weighted median estimator, and MR-PRESSO. Finally, we used multivariable MR (MVMR) controlling for correlated lipid fractions to distinguish the independent effect of plasma TG levels. Our results identified seven disease traits reaching Bonferroni-corrected significance in both the discovery (p<1.92 × 10 ) and replication analyses (p<2.26 × 10 ), suggesting a causal relationship between plasma TG levels and ASCVDs, including coronary artery disease (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.24-1.43, p=2.47 × 10 ). We also identified 12 disease traits that were Bonferroni-significant in the discovery or replication analysis and at least nominally significant in the other analysis (p<0.05), identifying plasma TG levels as a novel potential risk factor for nine non-ASCVD diseases, including uterine leiomyoma (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.10-1.29, p=1.17 × 10 ). Taking a phenome-wide, two-sample MR approach, we identified causal associations between plasma TG levels and 19 disease traits across organ systems. Our findings suggest unrealized drug repurposing opportunities or adverse effects related to approved and emerging TG-lowering agents, as well as mechanistic insights for future studies. RD is supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) (R35-GM124836) and the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the NIH (R01-HL139865 and R01-HL155915).