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HIV treatment has benefits to the patient, but does it decrease community HIV transmission as well? In this community-randomized trial in Zambia and South Africa, universal HIV testing with linkage to care and antiretroviral treatment according to local guidelines decreased HIV incidence.

In South Africa, low tuberculosis (TB) treatment coverage and high TB case fatality remain important challenges. Following TB diagnosis, patients must link with a primary health care (PHC) facility for initiation or continuation of antituberculosis treatment and TB registration. We aimed to evaluate mortality among TB patients who did not link to a TB treatment facility for TB treatment within 30 days of their TB diagnosis, i.e. who were “initial loss to follow-up (ILTFU)” in Cape Town, South Africa. We prospectively included all patients with a routine laboratory or clinical diagnosis of TB made at PHC or hospital level in Khayelitsha and Tygerberg sub-districts in Cape Town, using routine TB data from an integrated provincial health data centre between October 2018 and March 2020. Overall, 74% (10,208/13,736) of TB patients were diagnosed at PHC facilities and ILTFU was 20.0% (2,742/13,736). Of ILTFU patients, 17.1% (468/2,742) died, with 69.7% (326/468) of deaths occurring within 30 days of diagnosis. Most ILTFU deaths (85.5%; 400/468) occurred in patients diagnosed in hospital. Multivariable logistic regression identified increasing age, HIV positive status, and hospital-based TB diagnosis (higher in the absence of TB treatment initiation and being ILTFU) as predictors of mortality. Although hospitals account for a modest proportion of diagnosed TB patients they have high TB-associated mortality. A hospital-based TB diagnosis is a critical opportunity to identify those at high risk of early and overall mortality. Interventions to diagnose TB before hospital admission, improve linkage to TB treatment following diagnosis, and reduce mortality in hospital-diagnosed TB patients should be prioritised.

Southern Africa has had an unprecedented increase in the burden of tuberculosis, driven by the HIV epidemic. The Zambia, South Africa Tuberculosis and AIDS Reduction (ZAMSTAR) trial examined two public health interventions that aimed to reduce the burden of tuberculosis by facilitating either rapid sputum diagnosis or integrating tuberculosis and HIV services within the community. ZAMSTAR was a community-randomised trial done in Zambia and the Western Cape province of South Africa. Two interventions, community-level enhanced tuberculosis case-finding (ECF) and household level tuberculosis–HIV care, were implemented between Aug 1, 2006, and July 31, 2009, and assessed in a 2×2 factorial design between Jan 9, 2010, and Dec 6, 2010. All communities had a strengthened tuberculosis–HIV programme implemented in participating health-care centres. 24 communities, selected according to population size and tuberculosis notification rate, were randomly allocated to one of four study groups using a randomisation schedule stratified by country and baseline prevalence of tuberculous infection: group 1 strengthened tuberculosis–HIV programme at the clinic alone; group 2, clinic plus ECF; group 3, clinic plus household intervention; and group 4, clinic plus ECF and household interventions. The primary outcome was the prevalence of culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis in adults (≥18 years), defined as Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolated from one respiratory sample, measured 4 years after the start of interventions in a survey of 4000 randomly selected adults in each community in 2010. The secondary outcome was the incidence of tuberculous infection, measured using tuberculin skin testing in a cohort of schoolchildren, a median of 4 years after a baseline survey done before the start of interventions. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN36729271. Prevalence of tuberculosis was evaluated in 64 463 individuals randomly selected from the 24 communities; 894 individuals had active tuberculosis. Averaging over the 24 communities, the geometric mean of tuberculosis prevalence was 832 per 100 000 population. The adjusted prevalence ratio for the comparison of ECF versus non-ECF intervention groups was 1·09 (95% CI 0·86–1·40) and of household versus non-household intervention groups was 0·82 (0·64–1·04). The incidence of tuberculous infection was measured in a cohort of 8809 children, followed up for a median of 4 years; the adjusted rate ratio for ECF versus non-ECF groups was 1·36 (95% CI 0·59–3·14) and for household versus non-household groups was 0·45 (0·20–1·05). Although neither intervention led to a statistically significant reduction in tuberculosis, two independent indicators of burden provide some evidence of a reduction in tuberculosis among communities receiving the household intervention. By contrast the ECF intervention had no effect on either outcome. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

In 2011, the South African HIV treatment eligibility criteria were expanded to allow all tuberculosis (TB) patients lifelong ART. The impact of this change on TB mortality in South Africa is not known. We evaluated mortality in all adults (≥ 15 years old) treated for drug-susceptible TB in South Africa between 2009 and 2016. Using a Cox regression model, we quantified risk factors for mortality during TB treatment and present standardised mortality ratios (SMR) stratified by year, age, sex, and HIV status. During the study period, 8.6% (219,618/2,551,058) of adults on TB treatment died. Older age, male sex, previous TB treatment and HIV infection (with or without the use of ART) were associated with increased hazard of mortality. There was a 19% reduction in hazard of mortality amongst all TB patients between 2009 and 2016 (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.81 95%CI 0.80–0.83). The highest SMR was in 15–24-year-old women, more than double that of men (42.3 in 2016). Between 2009 and 2016, the SMR for HIV-positive TB patients increased, from 9.0 to 19.6 in women, and 7.0 to 10.6 in men. In South Africa, case fatality during TB treatment is decreasing and further interventions to address specific risk factors for TB mortality are required. Young women (15–24-year-olds) with TB experience a disproportionate burden of mortality and interventions targeting this age-group are needed.

Over 130 million people have been diagnosed with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and more than one million fatalities have been reported worldwide. South Africa is unique in having a quadruple disease burden of type 2 diabetes, hypertension, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis, making COVID-19-related mortality of particular interest in the country. The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical characteristics and associated mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) in a South African setting. We performed a prospective observational study of patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection admitted to the ICU of a South African tertiary hospital in Cape Town. The mortality and discharge rates were the primary outcomes. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were analysed, and multivariable robust Poisson regression model was used to identify risk factors for mortality. Furthermore, Cox proportional hazards regression model was performed to assess the association between time to death and the predictor variables. Factors associated with death (time to death) at p-value < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Of the 402 patients admitted to the ICU, 250 (62%) died, and another 12 (3%) died in the hospital after being discharged from the ICU. The median age of the study population was 54.1 years (IQR: 46.0-61.6). The mortality rate among those who were intubated was significantly higher at 201/221 (91%). After adjusting for confounding, multivariable robust Poisson regression analysis revealed that age more than 48 years, requiring invasive mechanical ventilation, HIV status, procalcitonin (PCT), Troponin T, Aspartate Aminotransferase (AST), and a low pH on admission all significantly predicted mortality. Three main risk factors predictive of mortality were identified in the analysis using Cox regression Cox proportional hazards regression model. HIV positive status, myalgia, and intubated in the ICU were identified as independent prognostic factors. In this study, the mortality rate in COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU was high. Older age, the need for invasive mechanical ventilation, HIV status, and metabolic acidosis were found to be significant predictors of mortality in patients admitted to the ICU.

People living with HIV (PLHIV) report lower health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) than HIV-negative people. HIV stigma may contribute to this. We explored the association between HIV stigma and HRQoL among PLHIV. We used cross-sectional data from 3991 randomly selected PLHIV who were surveyed in 2017–2018 for HPTN 071 (PopART), a cluster randomised trial in Zambia and South Africa. Participants were 18–44 years, had laboratory-confirmed HIV infection, and knew their status. HRQoL was measured using the EuroQol-5-dimensions-5-levels (EQ-5D-5L) questionnaire. Stigma outcomes included: internalised stigma, stigma experienced in the community, and stigma experienced in healthcare settings. Associations were examined using logistic regression. Participants who had experienced community stigma (n = 693/3991) had higher odds of reporting problems in at least one HRQoL domain, compared to those who had not (adjusted odds ratio, aOR: 1.51, 95% confidence interval, 95% Cl: 1.16–1.98, p  = 0.002). Having experienced internalised stigma was also associated with reporting problems in at least one HRQoL domain (n = 552/3991, aOR: 1.98, 95% CI: 1.54–2.54, p < 0.001). However, having experienced stigma in a healthcare setting was less common (n = 158/3991) and not associated with HRQoL (aOR: 1.04, 95% CI: 0.68–1.58, p  = 0.850). A stronger focus on interventions for internalised stigma and stigma experienced in the community is required.

In 2023, almost 200,000 children under 15 years died from tuberculosis, most without appropriate treatment. Treatment decision algorithms (TDAs), developed to facilitate rapid anti-tuberculosis treatment initiation in children, were recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2022, conditional on validation in different cohorts and settings. We performed a retrospective external evaluation of WHO TDAs using an individual participant dataset (IPD). The IPD comprised four paediatric cohorts, restricted to children with presumptive pulmonary TB < 10 years, and including children in high-risk groups (children living with HIV \"CLHIV\", children with severe acute malnutrition \"SAM\", and children <2 years). All children in the IPD were retrospectively evaluated using both TDA A (an algorithm including chest X-ray) and TDA B (without chest X-ray), excluding the triage step. The diagnostic accuracy against a composite reference standard (confirmed and unconfirmed tuberculosis versus unlikely tuberculosis) was determined and reported as sensitivities and specificities. Of 1,886 children included (RaPaed-TB: n = 740, Umoya: n = 474, TB-Speed HIV: n = 204, TB-Speed Decentralisation: n = 468), the median age was 2.9 years (interquartile range [IQR]:1.3,5.5), 741 (39.3%) were <2 years, 382 (20.3%) were CLHIV, and 284 (15.1%) had SAM. 281 (14.9%) had confirmed tuberculosis, 672 (35.6%) were classified as unconfirmed tuberculosis (clinically diagnosed, microbiological investigations negative), and 933 (49.5%) as unlikely tuberculosis. For TDAs A and B, algorithm sensitivity was 84.3% (95% CI: 74.8, 90.6) and 90.6% (95% CI: 83.8, 94.7), respectively, with a specificity of 50.6% (95% CI: 30.4, 70.7) and 30.8% (95% CI: 21.5, 42.0), respectively. For TDA A, estimated sensitivity in children in high-risk groups was lower than those with low-risk (83.0%, 95% CI: 79.4%, 86.1%; versus 88.0%, 95% CI: 84.8%, 90.6%), while having a gain in specificity (50.0%, 95% CI: 44.9%, 55.1%; versus 36.6%, 95% CI: 32.7%, 40.7%). Trends were similar for TDA B. As for limitations, most diagnostic tuberculosis studies in children, including two of those included in the IPD, are performed at secondary or tertiary hospitals with higher levels of healthcare and thus the target population might differ somewhat from the IPD, potentially limiting the generalisability of our results. This retrospective external evaluation of WHO TDAs in a large IPD shows high sensitivity but sub-optimal specificity for both TDAs, in line with the meta-analyses that generated the algorithms. Prospective studies that evaluate the entire TDA, including triage step are needed. Additionally, the integration of novel diagnostic tools within the TDAs should aim to enhance the accuracy, especially the specificity.

Xpert MTB/RIF was introduced as a screening test for all presumptive tuberculosis cases in primary health services in Cape Town, South Africa. To compare multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) treatment commencement times in MDRTBPlus Line Probe Assay and Xpert MTB/RIF-based algorithms in a routine operational setting. The study was undertaken in 10 of 29 high tuberculosis burden primary health facilities, selected through stratified random sampling. An observational study was undertaken as facilities transitioned to the Xpert MTB/RIF-based algorithm. MDR-TB diagnostic data were collected from electronic laboratory records and treatment data from clinical records and registers. Kaplan Meier time-to-event analysis was used to compare treatment commencement time, laboratory turnaround time and action delay between algorithms. A facility-level paired analysis was done: the median time-to-event was estimated per facility in each algorithm and mean differences between algorithms compared using a paired t-test. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the effect of patient-level variables on treatment commencement time. The difference between algorithms was compared using the hazard ratio. The median treatment commencement time in the Xpert MTB/RIF-based algorithm was 17 days (95% CI 13 to 22 days), with a median laboratory turnaround time (to result available in the laboratory) of <1 day (95% CI<1 to 1 day). There was a decrease of 25 days (95% CI 17 to 32 days, p<0.001) in median MDR-TB treatment commencement time in the Xpert MTB/RIF-based algorithm. We found no significant effect on treatment commencement times for the patient-level variables assessed. MDR-TB treatment commencement time was significantly reduced in the Xpert MTB/RIF-based algorithm. Changes in the health system may have contributed. However, an unacceptable level of delay remains. Health system and patient factors contributing to delay need to be evaluated and addressed to optimise test benefits.

Background Tuberculosis (TB)-associated mortality in South Africa remains high. This review aimed to systematically assess risk factors associated with death during TB treatment in South African patients. Methods We conducted a systematic review of TB research articles published between 2010 and 2018. We searched BioMed Central (BMC), PubMed®, EBSCOhost, Cochrane, and SCOPUS for publications between January 2010 and December 2018. Searches were conducted between August 2019 and October 2019. We included randomised control trials (RCTs), case control, cross sectional, retrospective, and prospective cohort studies where TB mortality was a primary endpoint and effect measure estimates were provided for risk factors for TB mortality during TB treatment. Due to heterogeneity in effect measures and risk factors evaluated, a formal meta-analysis of risk factors for TB mortality was not appropriate. A random effects meta-analysis was used to estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for all studies and for specific subgroups so that these could be compared. Quality assessments were performed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale or the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool. Results We identified 1995 titles for screening, 24 publications met our inclusion criteria (one cross-sectional study, 2 RCTs, and 21 cohort studies). Twenty-two studies reported on adults ( n  = 12561) and two were restricted to children < 15 years of age ( n  = 696). The CFR estimated for all studies was 26.4% (CI 18.1–34.7, n  = 13257 ); 37.5% (CI 24.8-50.3, n  = 5149) for drug-resistant (DR) TB; 12.5% (CI 1.1–23.9, n  = 1935) for drug-susceptible (DS) TB; 15.6% (CI 8.1–23.2, n  = 6173) for studies in which drug susceptibility was mixed or not specified; 21.3% (CI 15.3-27.3, n  = 7375) for people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV); 19.2% (CI 7.7–30.7, n  = 1691) in HIV-negative TB patients; and 6.8% (CI 4.9–8.7, n  = 696) in paediatric studies. The main risk factors associated with TB mortality were HIV infection, prior TB treatment, DR-TB, and lower body weight at TB diagnosis. Conclusions In South Africa, overall mortality during TB treatment remains high, people with DR-TB have an elevated risk of mortality during TB treatment and interventions to mitigate high mortality are needed. In addition, better prospective data on TB mortality are needed, especially amongst vulnerable sub-populations including young children, adolescents, pregnant women, and people with co-morbidities other than HIV. Limitations included a lack of prospective studies and RCTs and a high degree of heterogeneity in risk factors and comparator variables. Systematic review registration The systematic review protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) under the registration number CRD42018108622. This study was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Investment ID OPP1173131) via the South African TB Think Tank.

BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of mortality among women of childbearing age and a significant contributor to maternal mortality. Pregnant women with TB are at high risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. This study aimed to determine risk factors for an adverse pregnancy outcome among pregnant women diagnosed with TB.MethodsUsing TB programmatic data, this retrospective cohort analysis included all women who were routinely diagnosed with TB in the public sector between October 2018 and March 2020 in two health subdistricts of Cape Town, and who were documented to be pregnant during their TB episode. Adverse pregnancy outcome was defined as either a live birth of an infant weighing <2500 g and/or with a gestation period <37 weeks or as stillbirth, miscarriage, termination of pregnancy, maternal or early neonatal death. Demographics, TB and pregnancy characteristics were described by HIV status. Logistic regression was used to determine risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcome.ResultsOf 248 pregnant women, half (52%) were living with HIV; all were on antiretroviral therapy at the time of their TB diagnosis. Pregnancy outcomes were documented in 215 (87%) women, of whom 74 (34%) had an adverse pregnancy outcome. Being older (35–44 years vs 25–34 years (adjusted OR (aOR): 3.99; 95% CI: 1.37 to 11.57), living with HIV (aOR: 2.72; 95% CI: 0.99 to 4.63), having an unfavourable TB outcome (aOR: 2.29; 95% CI: 1.03 to 5.08) and having presented to antenatal services ≤1 month prior to delivery (aOR: 10.57; 95% CI: 4.01 to 27.89) were associated with higher odds of an adverse pregnancy outcome.ConclusionsPregnancy outcomes among women with TB were poor, irrespective of HIV status. Pregnant women with TB are a complex population who need additional support prior to, during and after TB treatment to improve TB treatment and pregnancy outcomes. Pregnancy status should be considered for inclusion in TB registries.