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Global trade and the movement of people accelerate biological invasions by spreading species worldwide. Biosecurity measures seek to allow trade and passenger movements while preventing incursions that could lead to the establishment of unwanted pests, pathogens, and weeds. However, few data exist to evaluate whether changes in trade volumes, passenger arrivals, and biosecurity measures have altered rates of establishment of nonnative species over time. This is particularly true for pathogens, which pose significant risks to animal and plant health and are consequently a major focus of biosecurity efforts but are difficult to detect. Here, we use a database of all known plant pathogen associations recorded in New Zealand to estimate the rate at which new fungal pathogens arrived and established on 131 economically important plant species over the last 133 years. We show that the annual arrival rate of new fungal pathogens increased from 1880 to about 1980 in parallel with increasing import trade volume but subsequently stabilised despite continued rapid growth in import trade and recent rapid increases in international passenger arrivals. Nevertheless, while pathogen arrival rates for crop and pasture species have declined in recent decades, arrival rates have increased for forestry and fruit tree species. These contrasting trends between production sectors reflect differences in biosecurity effort and suggest that targeted biosecurity can slow pathogen arrival and establishment despite increasing trade and international movement of people.

Lizards are considered vulnerable to climate change because many operate near their thermal maxima. Exposure to higher temperatures could reduce activity of these animals by forcing them to shelter in thermal refugia for prolonged periods to avoid exceeding lethal limits. While rising temperatures should reduce activity in tropical species, the situation is less clear for temperate-zone species where activity can be constrained by both low and high temperatures. Here, we measure the effects of natural variation in environmental temperatures on activity in a temperate grassland lizard and show that it is operating near its upper thermal limit in summer even when sheltering in thermal refuges. As air temperatures increased above 32 °C, lizard activity declined markedly as individuals sought refuge in cool microhabitats while still incurring substantial metabolic costs. We estimate that warming over the last two decades has required these lizards to increase their energy intake up to 40% to offset metabolic losses caused by rising temperatures. Our results show that recent increases in temperature are sufficient to exceed the thermal and metabolic limits of temperate-zone grassland lizards. Extended periods of high temperatures could place natural populations of ectotherms under significantly increased environmental stress and contribute to population declines and extinction.

The largest extinction event in the Holocene occurred on Pacific islands, where Late Quaternary fossils reveal the loss of thousands of bird populations following human colonization of the region. However, gaps in the fossil record mean that considerable uncertainty surrounds the magnitude and pattern of these extinctions. We use a Bayesian mark-recapture approach to model gaps in the fossil record and to quantify losses of nonpasserine landbirds on 41 Pacific islands. Two-thirds of the populations on these islands went extinct in the period between first human arrival and European contact, with extinction rates linked to island and species characteristics that increased susceptibility to hunting and habitat destruction. We calculate that human colonization of remote Pacific islands caused the global extinction of close to 1,000 species of nonpasserine landbird alone; nonpasserine seabird and passerine extinctions will add to this total.

Dispersal is thought to be a key process underlying the high spatial diversity of tropical forests. Just how important dispersal is in structuring plant communities is nevertheless an open question because it is very difficult to isolate dispersal from other processes, and thereby measure its effect. Using a unique situation, the loss of vertebrate seed dispersers on the island of Guam and their presence on the neighboring islands of Saipan and Rota, we quantify the contribution of vertebrate seed dispersal to spatial patterns of diversity of tree seedlings in treefall gaps. The presence of vertebrate seed dispersers approximately doubled seedling species richness within canopy gaps and halved species turnover among gaps. Our study demonstrates that dispersal plays a key role in maintaining local and regional patterns of diversity, and highlights the potential for ongoing declines in vertebrate seed dispersers to profoundly alter tropical forest composition.

Eradications of invasive species are usually expensive and difficult to conduct. Knowing when to declare an eradication successful requires distinguishing between failed detection of the target species due to imperfect sensitivity of the detection method and true species absence. This is difficult because the sensitivities of many detection methods are unknown. Environmental DNA (eDNA) methods can be used to detect species by analysing DNA present in environmental samples. eDNA has been promoted as a particularly sensitive and cost‐effective way to detect species at low densities and, importantly, the sensitivity of eDNA surveys can be quantified. Nevertheless, the effort and costs involved in detecting species at extremely low densities, such as required during eradication, have not been previously calculated. We evaluated the sensitivity of eDNA surveys in detecting the invasive European carp, Cyprinus carpio, in two lakes in Tasmania, Australia, one in which carp have been eradicated and a second in which carp are currently being eradicated. We determined the sampling effort and associated cost required to detect the species at very low density in these lakes. While our eDNA survey detected the current low density carp population present in Lake Sorell, we show that an exponential increase in sampling effort and associated cost will be required to confidently detect the species as the population declines. Similarly, while our eDNA survey corroborated the species absence from Lake Crescent, our detection confidence was low. We quantify the survey effort and financial investment required to confidently establish eradication success in Lake Crescent. Synthesis and applications. Estimating the environmental DNA (eDNA) survey effort and cost required to detect species at a given density will enable practitioners to make informed decisions on the feasibility of implementing such surveys. Quantifying the sensitivity of eDNA surveys will also inform the confidence practitioners should place in eDNA detection results to ensure appropriate management actions are implemented and provide a suitable stopping point at which to confidently declare eradication success. Estimating the environmental DNA (eDNA) survey effort and cost required to detect species at a given density will enable practitioners to make informed decisions on the feasibility of implementing such surveys. Quantifying the sensitivity of eDNA surveys will also inform the confidence practitioners should place in the results of eDNA detection surveys to ensure appropriate management actions are implemented and provide a suitable stopping point at which to confidently declare eradication success.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) analyses hold great potential for increasing species detection sensitivities and estimating species abundances. The rapidly growing user base, continuous method development and optimisation have led to diverse approaches for capturing and analysing eDNA. While significant efforts have been made to standardise field and laboratory protocols, a notable gap remains in understanding the consequences of data pre‐processing and statistical choices on the final results obtained, particularly in quantitative eDNA analyses. These insights are crucial for developing best‐practice guidelines that can harmonise analytical workflows. To address this gap, we conducted an extensive literature review focusing on quantitative species‐specific eDNA studies. We assessed the diversity of data pre‐processing and statistical choices made to evaluate the correlation between eDNA concentrations and species' abundance or biomass, and collected the raw datasets when available. We then applied commonly used data analysis strategies to the datasets to formulate general recommendations for improving the reliability and reproducibility of quantitative eDNA analyses. Our results indicate that, within the available literature, statistical methods are not always clearly described and raw data are rarely made publicly available. Furthermore, the choice of data pre‐processing strategies and statistical tests used to assess quantitative correlations can significantly influence the likelihood of detecting positive correlations and the effect sizes. Overall, we recommend the following: (i) increase transparency in method descriptions and data availability; (ii) assess correlations using mixed‐effect models that can account for data characteristics; (iii) avoid pre‐processing quantitative eDNA data, especially when combined with sub‐optimal statistical tests. Implementing these guidelines should enhance the accessibility and transparency of quantitative eDNA data and ultimately their use for managers and policy makers.

Extinctions have altered island ecosystems throughout the late Quaternary. Here, we review the main historic drivers of extinctions on islands, patterns in extinction chronologies between islands, and the potential for restoring ecosystems through reintroducing extirpated species. While some extinctions have been caused by climatic and environmental change, most have been caused by anthropogenic impacts. We propose a general model to describe patterns in these anthropogenic island extinctions. Hunting, habitat loss and the introduction of invasive predators accompanied prehistoric settlement and caused declines of endemic island species. Later settlement by European colonists brought further land development, a different suite of predators and new drivers, leading to more extinctions. Extinctions alter ecological networks, causing ripple effects for islands through the loss of ecosystem processes, functions and interactions between species. Reintroduction of extirpated species can help restore ecosystem function and processes, and can be guided by palaeoecology. However, reintroduction projects must also consider the cultural, social and economic needs of humans now inhabiting the islands and ensure resilience against future environmental and climate change.

Low‐temperature growth limitation largely determines alpine treeline position globally, but treeline elevation also varies locally at a range of scales in response to multiple biotic and abiotic factors. In this study, we conceptualise how variability in treeline elevation is related to abiotic factors that act as thermal modifiers, physiological stressors, or disturbance agents. We then present a novel analytical framework for quantifying how abiotic factors influence treeline elevation at different spatial scales using New Zealand Nothofagus treelines as a case study. We delineated Nothofagus treelines in a GIS, along which we extracted data for treeline elevation and eight abiotic explanatory variables at 54 000 points. Each location was classified at each of five spatial scales based on nested river catchments, ranging from large regional to small hillslope catchments. We used hierarchical linear models to partition the variation in both treeline elevation and the eight abiotic variables by spatial scale, and then quantified the relationships between these at each spatial scale in turn. Nothofagus treeline elevation varied from 800–1740 m a.s.l. across New Zealand. Abiotic factors explained 82% of the variation in treeline elevation at the largest (regional) scale and 44–52% of variation at the four finer scales. Broad‐scale variation in Nothofagus treeline elevation was strongly associated with thermal modifiers, consistent with the idea that treelines coincide with a temperature‐driven, physiological limit. However, much of the finer‐scale variation in treeline elevation was explained by a combination of thermal, physiological stress‐related, and disturbance variables operating at different spatial scales. The conceptual model and analytical methods developed here provide a general framework for understanding treeline variation at different spatial scales.

Bi-allelic Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) markers are widely used in population genetic studies. In most studies, sequences either side of the SNPs remain unused, although these sequences contain information beyond that used in population genetic studies. In this study, we show how these sequence tags either side of a single nucleotide polymorphism can be used for comparative genome analysis. We used DArTseq (Diversity Array Technology) derived SNP data for a non-model Australian native freshwater fish, Macquaria ambigua, to identify genes linked to SNP associated sequence tags, and to discover homologies with evolutionarily conserved genes and genomic regions. We concatenated 6,776 SNP sequence tags to create a hypothetical genome (representing 0.1-0.3% of the actual genome), which we used to find sequence homologies with 12 model fish species using the Ensembl genome browser with stringent filtering parameters. We identified sequence homologies for 17 evolutionarily conserved genes (cd9b, plk2b, rhot1b, sh3pxd2aa, si:ch211-148f13.1, si:dkey-166d12.2, zgc:66447, atp8a2, clvs2, lyst, mkln1, mnd1, piga, pik3ca, plagl2, rnf6, sec63) along with an ancestral evolutionarily conserved syntenic block (euteleostomi Block_210). Our analysis also revealed repetitive sequences covering approximately 12% of the hypothetical genome where DNA transposon, LTR and non-LTR retrotransposons were most abundant. A hierarchical pattern of the number of sequence homologies with phylogenetically close species validated the approach for repeatability. This new approach of using SNP associated sequence tags for comparative genome analysis may provide insight into the genome evolution of non-model species where whole genome sequences are unavailable.

The widely held hypothesis that enlarged brains have evolved as an adaptation to cope with novel or altered environmental conditions lacks firm empirical support. Here, we test this hypothesis for a major animal group (birds) by examining whether large-brained species show higher survival than small-brained species when introduced to nonnative locations. Using a global database documenting the outcome of >600 introduction events, we confirm that avian species with larger brains, relative to their body mass, tend to be more successful at establishing themselves in novel environments. Moreover, we provide evidence that larger brains help birds respond to novel conditions by enhancing their innovation propensity rather than indirectly through noncognitive mechanisms. These findings provide strong evidence for the hypothesis that enlarged brains function, and hence may have evolved, to deal with changes in the environment.