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"Durrani, Adnan M"
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Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
2014
In 2010, overweight and obesity were estimated to cause 3·4 million deaths, 3·9% of years of life lost, and 3·8% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) worldwide. The rise in obesity has led to widespread calls for regular monitoring of changes in overweight and obesity prevalence in all populations. Comparable, up-to-date information about levels and trends is essential to quantify population health effects and to prompt decision makers to prioritise action. We estimate the global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980–2013.
We systematically identified surveys, reports, and published studies (n=1769) that included data for height and weight, both through physical measurements and self-reports. We used mixed effects linear regression to correct for bias in self-reports. We obtained data for prevalence of obesity and overweight by age, sex, country, and year (n=19 244) with a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression model to estimate prevalence with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).
Worldwide, the proportion of adults with a body-mass index (BMI) of 25 kg/m2 or greater increased between 1980 and 2013 from 28·8% (95% UI 28·4–29·3) to 36·9% (36·3–37·4) in men, and from 29·8% (29·3–30·2) to 38·0% (37·5–38·5) in women. Prevalence has increased substantially in children and adolescents in developed countries; 23·8% (22·9–24·7) of boys and 22·6% (21·7–23·6) of girls were overweight or obese in 2013. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has also increased in children and adolescents in developing countries, from 8·1% (7·7–8·6) to 12·9% (12·3–13·5) in 2013 for boys and from 8·4% (8·1–8·8) to 13·4% (13·0–13·9) in girls. In adults, estimated prevalence of obesity exceeded 50% in men in Tonga and in women in Kuwait, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia, Libya, Qatar, Tonga, and Samoa. Since 2006, the increase in adult obesity in developed countries has slowed down.
Because of the established health risks and substantial increases in prevalence, obesity has become a major global health challenge. Not only is obesity increasing, but no national success stories have been reported in the past 33 years. Urgent global action and leadership is needed to help countries to more effectively intervene.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Journal Article
Low estimated glucose disposal rate predicts high residual syntax score in non-diabetic ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients
by
Elkenany, Nasima Mohamed
,
Ali, Niemat Mohammed Tahir
,
Wani, Javed Iqbal
in
Analysis
,
Development and progression
,
Dextrose
2025
Background and aim
Insulin resistance (IR) plays a significant role in the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD), even in non-diabetic individuals, with a 46% higher likelihood of coronary artery disease (CAD) for each 1 SD increase in IR. The estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) is a validated marker for IR. However, its association with the residual SYNTAX (Synergy Between PCI With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score (rSS), which assesses residual stenosis severity after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), has not been investigated in non-diabetic ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients. This study aims to explore the relationship between eGDR and rSS in non-diabetic STEMI patients undergoing PCI.
Methods
This single-center observational study enrolled 390 non-diabetic STEMI patients who underwent PCI. The complexity of CAD was assessed pre-PCI using the SYNTAX score, and post-PCI, the rSS was calculated. eGDR was derived using waist circumference, HbA1c, and hypertension status, based on a previously validated equation. The association between eGDR and rSS was analyzed using multivariable logistic regression. The optimal eGDR cut-off value for predicting higher rSS was determined using Youden’s index.
Results
The cohort had a mean age of 58.74 ± 9.01 years and was predominantly male (76.66%). Participants were divided into lower and higher eGDR groups based on the median eGDR value of 7.74. Multivariable logistic regression identified lower eGDR as an independent predictor of higher rSS (adjusted OR = 1.84, 95% CI: 1.59–2.14,
p
< 0.001), after adjusting for demographic, clinical, and metabolic factors. The association remained consistent in a secondary model that included additional anatomical and procedural variables (adjusted OR = 1.81;
p
< 0.001; 95% CI: 1.37–2.39).The optimal eGDR cut-off value for predicting high rSS was 7.04 (AUC: 0.803, 95% CI: 0.747–0.882,
p
< 0.001), with a sensitivity of 76.04% and specificity of 73.20%.
Conclusion
eGDR, is an independent predictor of higher rSS in non-diabetic patients undergoing PCI for STEMI.
Journal Article
Observed Long-Term Climatic Variability and Its Impacts on the Ground Water Level of Quetta Alluvial
by
Ahmad, Maqsood
,
Khair, S M
,
Adnan, Shahzada
in
Annual precipitation
,
Aquifers
,
Climate change
2018
Water is an important natural resource. Groundwater is one of most vital and consistent source of renewed water globally containing areas which have extreme rainfall and abundant of surface water. This study assesses the climate impact on groundwater level using the precipitation, temperature data from 1946 to 2015, evapotranspiration, and monthly groundwater levels from 1987 to 2013 in Quetta Valley, Balochistan. The annual precipitation analysis identifies decreasing trends at all the gauging stations. The sharp increase in maximum temperature was observed during the late 90s. Similarly, mean monthly minimum temperature was observed well below normal 1947-1987, and afterwards, a sharp increase in minimum temperature was observed which was well above normal. The annual evaporation data analyzed which identified increasing trends at all the stations except Quetta city, where it has been decreased. The trends are found to be statistically significant at all the stations except Quetta city. Similarly, the rain data of different time periods have also been examined with the perspective to study its impact on the groundwater levels. The analysis explores the fact that the groundwater is continuously depleting due to variability in rainfall. The result also illustrates that groundwater level is decreasing day by day and the rainfall temporary influences for a very short time period on the groundwater level depending upon the consumption.
Journal Article