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MAXENT is now a common species distribution modeling (SDM) tool used by conservation practitioners for predicting the distribution of a species from a set of records and environmental predictors. However, datasets of species occurrence used to train the model are often biased in the geographical space because of unequal sampling effort across the study area. This bias may be a source of strong inaccuracy in the resulting model and could lead to incorrect predictions. Although a number of sampling bias correction methods have been proposed, there is no consensual guideline to account for it. We compared here the performance of five methods of bias correction on three datasets of species occurrence: one \"virtual\" derived from a land cover map, and two actual datasets for a turtle (Chrysemys picta) and a salamander (Plethodon cylindraceus). We subjected these datasets to four types of sampling biases corresponding to potential types of empirical biases. We applied five correction methods to the biased samples and compared the outputs of distribution models to unbiased datasets to assess the overall correction performance of each method. The results revealed that the ability of methods to correct the initial sampling bias varied greatly depending on bias type, bias intensity and species. However, the simple systematic sampling of records consistently ranked among the best performing across the range of conditions tested, whereas other methods performed more poorly in most cases. The strong effect of initial conditions on correction performance highlights the need for further research to develop a step-by-step guideline to account for sampling bias. However, this method seems to be the most efficient in correcting sampling bias and should be advised in most cases.

Agri-environment schemes (AESs), ecological focus areas (EFAs), and organic farming are the main tools of the common agricultural policy (CAP) to counteract the dramatic decline of farmland biodiversity in Europe. However, their effectiveness is repeatedly doubted because it seems to vary when measured at the field-versus-landscape level and to depend on the regional environmental and land-use context. Understanding the heterogeneity of their effectiveness is thus crucial to developing management recommendations that maximize their efficacy. Using ensemble species distribution models and spatially explicit field-level information on crops grown, farming practice (organic/conventional), and applied AES/EFA from the Integrated Administration and Control System, we investigated the contributions of five groups of measures (buffer areas, cover crops, extensive grassland management, fallow land, and organic farming) to habitat suitability for 15 farmland bird species in the Mulde River Basin, Germany. We used a multiscale approach to identify the scale of effect of the selected measures. Using simulated land-use scenarios, we further examined how breeding habitat suitability would change if the measures were completely removed and if their adoption by farmers increased to meet conservation-informed targets. Buffer areas, fallow land, and extensive grassland were beneficial measures for most species, but cover crops and organic farming had contrasting effects across species. While different measures acted at different spatial scales, our results highlight the importance of land-use management at the landscape level—at which most measures had the strongest effect. We found that the current level of adoption of the measures delivers only modest gains in breeding habitat suitability. However, habitat suitability improved for the majority of species when the implementation of the measures was increased, suggesting that they could be effective conservation tools if higher adoption levels were reached. The heterogeneity of responses across species and spatial scales indicated that a mix of different measures, applied widely across the agricultural landscape, would likely maximize the benefits for biodiversity. This can only be achieved if the measures in the future CAP will be cooperatively designed in a regionally targeted way to improve their attractiveness for farmers and widen their uptake.

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered different governmental responses across borders, with cascading effects on people’s movements and on biodiversity data collection. We quantified changes in the number of species occurrence records collected during the first global lockdown (March 15th to May 1st 2020) relative to pre-pandemic levels using data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). We modelled how such changes relate to the stringency of governmental policy responses, changes in human mobility, and countries’ population size and economic class across 129 countries. We further focused on data from the community science project eBird, which constitutes the largest dataset in GBIF, to investigate changes in participation and activity patterns of individual observers (eBirders) during the lockdown. We found that the decreases in GBIF records correlated with declines in numbers of visitors to parks and outdoor areas, and were significantly larger in developing countries compared to developed ones. While the activity ranges of eBirders shrunk across all countries analysed, the number of eBirders in developing and least developed countries declined more than in developed countries, as the lockdown disrupted the influx of international visitors. Our results suggest that community-based, local monitoring programmes are essential to reduce biases in global biodiversity monitoring.

Quantifying species distributions using species distribution models (SDMs) has emerged as a central method in modern biogeography. These empirical models link species occurrence data with spatial environmental information. Since their emergence in the 1990s, thousands of scientific papers have used SDMs to study organisms across the entire tree of life, with birds commanding considerable attention. Here, we review the current state of avian SDMs and point to challenges and future opportunities for specific applications, ranging from conservation biology, invasive species and predicting seabird distributions, to more general topics such as modeling avian diversity, niche evolution and seasonal distributions at a biogeographic scale. While SDMs have been criticized for being phenomenological in nature, and for their inability to explicitly account for a variety of processes affecting populations, we conclude that they remain a powerful tool to learn about past, current, and future species distributions – at least when their limitations and assumptions are recognized and addressed. We close our review by providing an outlook on prospects and synergies with other disciplines in which avian SDMs can play an important role.

Most of Earth's biodiversity is found in 36 biodiversity hotspots, yet less than 10% natural intact vegetation remains. We calculated models projecting the future state of most of these hotspots for the year 2050, based on future climatic and agroeconomic pressure. Our models project an increasing demand for agricultural land resulting in the conversion of >50% of remaining natural intact vegetation in about one third of all hotspots, and in 2–6 hotspots resulting from climatic pressure. This confirms that, in the short term, habitat loss is of greater concern than climate change for hotspots and their biodiversity. Hotspots are most severely threatened in tropical Africa and parts of Asia, where demographic pressure and the demand for agricultural land is highest. The speed and magnitude of pristine habitat loss is, according to our models, much greater than previously shown when combining both scenarios on future climatic and agroeconomic pressure.

The climatic cycles of the Quaternary, during which global mean annual temperatures have regularly changed by 5-10°C, provide a special opportunity for studying the rate, magnitude, and effects of geographic responses to changing climates. During the Quaternary, high- and mid-latitude species were extirpated from regions that were covered by ice or otherwise became unsuitable, persisting in refugial retreats where the environment was compatible with their tolerances. In this study we combine modern geographic range data, phylogeny, Pleistocene paleoclimatic models, and isotopic records of changes in global mean annual temperature, to produce a temporally continuous model of geographic changes in potential habitat for 59 species of North American turtles over the past 320 Ka (three full glacial-interglacial cycles). These paleophylogeographic models indicate the areas where past climates were compatible with the modern ranges of the species and serve as hypotheses for how their geographic ranges would have changed in response to Quaternary climate cycles. We test these hypotheses against physiological, genetic, taxonomic and fossil evidence, and we then use them to measure the effects of Quaternary climate cycles on species distributions. Patterns of range expansion, contraction, and fragmentation in the models are strongly congruent with (i) phylogeographic differentiation; (ii) morphological variation; (iii) physiological tolerances; and (iv) intraspecific genetic variability. Modern species with significant interspecific differentiation have geographic ranges that strongly fluctuated and repeatedly fragmented throughout the Quaternary. Modern species with low genetic diversity have geographic distributions that were highly variable and at times exceedingly small in the past. Our results reveal the potential for paleophylogeographic models to (i) reconstruct past geographic range modifications, (ii) identify geographic processes that result in genetic bottlenecks; and (iii) predict threats due to anthropogenic climate change in the future.

Introgressive hybridization is a process that enables gene flow across species barriers through the backcrossing of hybrids into a parent population. This may make genetic material, potentially including relevant environmental adaptations, rapidly available in a gene pool. Consequently, it has been postulated to be an important mechanism for enabling evolutionary rescue, that is the recovery of threatened populations through rapid evolutionary adaptation to novel environments. However, predicting the likelihood of such evolutionary rescue for individual species remains challenging. Here, we use the example of Zosterops silvanus, an endangered East African highland bird species suffering from severe habitat loss and fragmentation, to investigate whether hybridization with its congener Zosterops flavilateralis might enable evolutionary rescue of its Taita Hills population. To do so, we employ an empirically parameterized individual‐based model to simulate the species' behaviour, physiology and genetics. We test the population's response to different assumptions of mating behaviour and multiple scenarios of habitat change. We show that as long as hybridization does take place, evolutionary rescue of Z. silvanus is likely. Intermediate hybridization rates enable the greatest long‐term population growth, due to trade‐offs between adaptive and maladaptive introgressed alleles. Habitat change did not have a strong effect on population growth rates, as Z. silvanus is a strong disperser and landscape configuration is therefore not the limiting factor for hybridization. Our results show that targeted gene flow may be a promising avenue to help accelerate the adaptation of endangered species to novel environments, and demonstrate how to combine empirical research and mechanistic modelling to deliver species‐specific predictions for conservation planning.

To understand how landscape characteristics affect gene flow in species with diverging ecological traits, it is important to analyze taxonomically related sympatric species in the same landscape using identical methods. Here, we present such a comparative landscape genetic study involving three closely related Hesperid butterflies of the genus Thymelicus that represent a gradient of diverging ecological traits. We analyzed landscape effects on their gene flow by deriving inter-population connectivity estimates based on different species distribution models (SDMs), which were calculated from multiple landscape parameters. We then used SDM output maps to calculate circuit-theoretic connectivity estimates and statistically compared these estimates to actual genetic differentiation in each species. We based our inferences on two different analytical methods and two metrics of genetic differentiation. Results indicate that land use patterns influence population connectivity in the least mobile specialist T. acteon. In contrast, populations of the highly mobile generalist T. lineola were panmictic, lacking any landscape related effect on genetic differentiation. In the species with ecological traits in between those of the congeners, T. sylvestris, climate has a strong impact on inter-population connectivity. However, the relative importance of different landscape factors for connectivity varies when using different metrics of genetic differentiation in this species. Our results show that closely related species representing a gradient of ecological traits also show genetic structures and landscape genetic relationships that gradually change from a geographical macro- to micro-scale. Thus, the type and magnitude of landscape effects on gene flow can differ strongly even among closely related species inhabiting the same landscape, and depend on their relative degree of specialization. In addition, the use of different genetic differentiation metrics makes it possible to detect recent changes in the relative importance of landscape factors affecting gene flow, which likely change as a result of contemporary habitat alterations.

Result‐based payments (RBPs) reward land users for conservation outcomes and are a promising alternative to standard payments, which are targeted at specific land use measures. A major barrier to the implementation of RBPs, particularly for the conservation of mobile species, is the substantial monitoring cost. Passive acoustic monitoring may offer promising opportunities for low‐cost monitoring as an alternative to human observation. We develop a costing framework for comparing human observation and passive acoustic monitoring and apply it to a hypothetical RBP scheme for farmland bird conservation. We consider three different monitoring scenarios: daytime monitoring for the whinchat and the ortolan bunting, nighttime monitoring for the gray partridge and the common quail, and day‐and‐night monitoring for all four species. We also examine the effect of changes in relevant parameters (such as participating area, travel distance and required monitoring time) on the cost comparison. Our results show that passive acoustic monitoring is still more expensive than human observation for daytime monitoring. In contrast, passive acoustic monitoring has a cost advantage for nighttime as well as day‐and‐nighttime monitoring in all considered scenarios.

Population genetics is a field of research that predates the current generations of sequencing technology. Those approaches, that were established before massively parallel sequencing methods, have been adapted to these new marker systems (in some cases involving the development of new methods) that allow genome‐wide estimates of the four major micro‐evolutionary forces—mutation, gene flow, genetic drift, and selection. Nevertheless, classic population genetic markers are still commonly used and a plethora of analysis methods and programs is available for these and high‐throughput sequencing (HTS) data. These methods employ various and diverse theoretical and statistical frameworks, to varying degrees of success, to estimate similar evolutionary parameters making it difficult to get a concise overview across the available approaches. Presently, reviews on this topic generally focus on a particular class of methods to estimate one or two evolutionary parameters. Here, we provide a brief history of methods and a comprehensive list of available programs for estimating micro‐evolutionary forces. We furthermore analyzed their usage within the research community based on popularity (citation bias) and discuss the implications of this bias for the software community. We found that a few programs received the majority of citations, with program success being independent of both the parameters estimated and the computing platform. The only deviation from a model of exponential growth in the number of citations was found for the presence of a graphical user interface (GUI). Interestingly, no relationship was found for the impact factor of the journals, when the tools were published, suggesting accessibility might be more important than visibility. Multiple booms in software analyzing population genetics have occurred with changing technology/techniques. Both established and novel techniques have been developed providing a plethora of different analysis methods and programs for the researcher. We aim to provide an overview for the major micro‐evolutionary forces over these methods, providing a resource for researchers to assess the diversity of software in the field.