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River deltas rank among the most economically and ecologically valuable environments on Earth. Even in the absence of sea-level rise, deltas are increasingly vulnerable to coastal hazards as declining sediment supply and climate change alter their sediment budget, affecting delta morphology and possibly leading to erosion 1 – 3 . However, the relationship between deltaic sediment budgets, oceanographic forces of waves and tides, and delta morphology has remained poorly quantified. Here we show how the morphology of about 11,000 coastal deltas worldwide, ranging from small bayhead deltas to mega-deltas, has been affected by river damming and deforestation. We introduce a model that shows that present-day delta morphology varies across a continuum between wave (about 80 per cent), tide (around 10 per cent) and river (about 10 per cent) dominance, but that most large deltas are tide- and river-dominated. Over the past 30 years, despite sea-level rise, deltas globally have experienced a net land gain of 54 ± 12 square kilometres per year (2 standard deviations), with the largest 1 per cent of deltas being responsible for 30 per cent of all net land area gains. Humans are a considerable driver of these net land gains—25 per cent of delta growth can be attributed to deforestation-induced increases in fluvial sediment supply. Yet for nearly 1,000 deltas, river damming 4 has resulted in a severe (more than 50 per cent) reduction in anthropogenic sediment flux, forcing a collective loss of 12 ± 3.5 square kilometres per year (2 standard deviations) of deltaic land. Not all deltas lose land in response to river damming: deltas transitioning towards tide dominance are currently gaining land, probably through channel infilling. With expected accelerated sea-level rise 5 , however, recent land gains are unlikely to be sustained throughout the twenty-first century. Understanding the redistribution of sediments by waves and tides will be critical for successfully predicting human-driven change to deltas, both locally and globally. A global study of river deltas shows a net increase in delta area by about 54 km 2  yr −1 over the past 30 years, in part due to deforestation-induced sediment delivery increase.

Climate change is intensifying tropical cyclones, accelerating sea-level rise, and increasing coastal flooding. River deltas are especially vulnerable to flooding because of their low elevations and densely populated cities. Yet, we do not know how many people live on deltas and their exposure to flooding. Using a new global dataset, we show that 339 million people lived on river deltas in 2017 and 89% of those people live in the same latitudinal zone as most tropical cyclone activity. We calculate that 41% (31 million) of the global population exposed to tropical cyclone flooding live on deltas, with 92% (28 million) in developing or least developed economies. Furthermore, 80% (25 million) live on sediment-starved deltas, which cannot naturally mitigate flooding through sediment deposition. Given that coastal flooding will only worsen, we must reframe this problem as one that will disproportionately impact people on river deltas, particularly in developing and least-developed economies. Coastal river delta regions are particularly impacted by the effects of climate change, yet though these regions are densely inhabited, robust estimates of population are lacking. Here the authors use global datasets to predict the number of people and regions most threatened by flooding and extreme weather.

One of the most dramatic events in river environments is the natural diversion, or avulsion, of a channel across its floodplain. Though rarely witnessed, avulsions can cause massive floods, and over geologic time they create most of the fluvial stratigraphic record. Avulsions exhibit behavior ranging from reoccupying abandoned channels to constructing new channels and splay complexes. To quantify avulsion behavior, or style, we measure avulsion-related floodplain disturbance in modern environments. We show that for 63 avulsions from Andean, Himalayan, and New Guinean basins, avulsion style correlates with channel morphology and changes systematically downstream. Avulsions in braided rivers reoccupy abandoned channels, whereas avulsions in meandering rivers often produce flooding and sediment deposition during channel construction. These downstream changes in avulsion style can explain the abrupt transition from channel-dominated to floodplain-dominated facies commonly observed in foreland basin stratigraphy. These dynamics also explain why some avulsions are more hazardous than others. River avulsions are dramatic events that can cause the loss of many human lives. The authors here investigate how river avulsion style changes with river morphology, and how these changes impact flooding and stratigraphy.

This paper provides an editors' introduction to the special issue of Climatic Change on the RCPs. Scenarios form a crucial element in climate change research. They allow researchers to explore the long-term consequences of decisions today, while taking account of the inertia in both the socio-economic and physical system. Scenarios also form an integrating element among the different research disciplines of those studying climate change, such as economists, technology experts, climate researchers, atmospheric chemists and geologists. In 2007, the IPCC requested the scientific community to develop a new set of scenarios, as the existing scenarios (published in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000), and called the 'SRES scenarios') needed to be updated and expanded in scope (see Moss et al. (2010) for a detailed discussion). Researchers from different disciplines worked together to develop a process to craft these new scenarios, as summarized by Moss, et al. (2010). The Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC), founded in response to the IPCC call, played a key role in this process.1 The scenario development process aims to develop a set of new scenarios that facilitate integrated analysis of climate change across the main scientific communities. The process comprises 3 main phases: (1) an initial phase, developing a set of pathways for emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing, (2) a parallel phase, comprising both the development of new socio-economic storylines and climate model projections, and (3) an integration phase, combining the information from the first phases into holistic mitigation, impacts and vulnerability assessments. The pathways developed in the first phase were called 'Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)'. They play an important role in providing input for prospective climate model experiments, including both the decadal and long-term projections of climate change. The RCPs also provide an important reference point for new research within the integrated assessment modeling (IAM) community by standardizing on a common set of year-2100 conditions, and exploring alternative pathways and policies that could produce these outcomes. By design, the RCPs, as a set, cover the range of radiative forcing levels examined in the open literature and contain relevant information for climate model runs. This Special Issue documents the main assumptions and characteristics of the RCPs, and, in particular, the various steps that were involved in their development. A number of collaborative activities were initiated and finalized during the last 2-3 years to develop the RCPs. This required the cooperation of researchers from various disciplines involved in climate research, including emission experts, climate modelers, atmospheric chemistry modelers, land use modelers and experts involved in integrated assessment. The four RCPs together reflect the range of year-2100 radiative forcing values found in the literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/msup 2. The papers in this Special Issue describe the individual RCPs, but also the various integrative steps that were necessary within the RCP development process to provide a harmonized set of pathways, that show a smooth transition from the past and extend far into the future for very long-term experiments. Important outcomes of this process included, for instance, the development of new emission inventories, new methods for the harmonization of spatial land use patterns, as well as extensions of the RCP trends beyond 2100. They briefly discuss the content of the individual papers.

A systematic review was conducted to identify and quality assess how studies published since 1999 have measured and reported the usage of hearing aids in older adults. The relationship between usage and other dimensions of hearing aid outcome, age and hearing loss are summarised. Articles were identified through systematic searches in PubMed/MEDLINE, The University of Nottingham Online Catalogue, Web of Science and through reference checking. (1) participants aged fifty years or over with sensori-neural hearing loss, (2) provision of an air conduction hearing aid, (3) inclusion of hearing aid usage measure(s) and (4) published between 1999 and 2011. Of the initial 1933 papers obtained from the searches, a total of 64 were found eligible for review and were quality assessed on six dimensions: study design, choice of outcome instruments, level of reporting (usage, age, and audiometry) and cross validation of usage measures. Five papers were rated as being of high quality (scoring 10-12), 35 papers were rated as being of moderate quality (scoring 7-9), 22 as low quality (scoring 4-6) and two as very low quality (scoring 0-2). Fifteen different methods were identified for assessing the usage of hearing aids. Generally, the usage data reviewed was not well specified. There was a lack of consistency and robustness in the way that usage of hearing aids was assessed and categorised. There is a need for more standardised level of reporting of hearing aid usage data to further understand the relationship between usage and hearing aid outcomes.

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m −2 in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value. Simulated with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), RCP4.5 includes long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover in a global economic framework. RCP4.5 was updated from earlier GCAM scenarios to incorporate historical emissions and land cover information common to the RCP process and follows a cost-minimizing pathway to reach the target radiative forcing. The imperative to limit emissions in order to reach this target drives changes in the energy system, including shifts to electricity, to lower emissions energy technologies and to the deployment of carbon capture and geologic storage technology. In addition, the RCP4.5 emissions price also applies to land use emissions; as a result, forest lands expand from their present day extent. The simulated future emissions and land use were downscaled from the regional simulation to a grid to facilitate transfer to climate models. While there are many alternative pathways to achieve a radiative forcing level of 4.5 W m −2 , the application of the RCP4.5 provides a common platform for climate models to explore the climate system response to stabilizing the anthropogenic components of radiative forcing.

The development of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and associated integrated assessment modeling exercises did not include direct air capture with carbon storage (DACCS) in their scenarios. Recent progress in DACCS commercialization suggests it could be a viable means of removing CO2 from the atmosphere with far lower land intensity than bioenergy with carbon capture or afforestation but with higher energy demands. Several forms of DACCS are in development, with different costs and energy inputs, as well as potential for future cost and performance improvements. Here, we use the Global Change Analysis Model to understand the role of DACCS across all 5 SSPs for the below 2 °C and below 1.5 °C end-of-century warming goals. We assess DACCS deployment relative to other carbon capture methods, and its side effects for global energy, water, land systems. We find that DACCS could play up to a tens of GtCO2 yr−1 role in many of these scenarios, particularly those with delayed climate policy and/or higher challenges to emissions mitigation. Our ‘sustainable development’ scenarios, consistent with SSP1, have smaller deployments of DACCS and other negative emissions owing to immediate climate policy onset, greater ease of emissions abatement, and tighter constraints on future negative emissions.

Water stressed regions rely heavily on the import of water-intensive goods to offset insufficient food production driven by socioeconomic and environmental factors. The water embedded in these traded commodities, virtual water, has received increasing interest in the scientific community. However, comprehensive future projections of virtual water trading remain absent. Here we show, for the first time, changes over the 21 st century in the amount of various water types required to meet international agricultural demands. Accounting for evolution in socioeconomic and climatic conditions, we estimate future interregional virtual water trading and find trading of renewable water sources may triple by 2100 while nonrenewable groundwater trading may at least double. Basins in North America, and the La Plata and Nile Rivers are found to contribute extensively to virtual water exports, while much of Africa, India, and the Middle East relies heavily on virtual water imports by the end of the century. Assessments of future virtual water trading are still lacking. Here the authors estimated the global virtual water trade throughout the century and found that virtual green water exports and virtual blue water exports at least triple to more than 3200 bcm and 170 bcm, respectively, by the end of the century.

Delta morphology is thought to be controlled by factors such as river discharge, tides and waves. Numerical modelling shows that sediment cohesion also strongly influences the development of a delta’s characteristics. The morphologies of the world’s deltas are thought to be determined by river discharge, tidal range and wave action 1 . More recently, sea-level rise 2 , 3 and human engineering 4 have been shown to shape delta evolution. The effects of factors such as sediment type and the overall amount of sediment carried by rivers are considered secondary 4 , 5 , 6 . In particular, the role of sediment cohesion, which is controlled by sediment size and type of vegetation, is unclear. Here we use a numerical flow and transport model 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 to show that sediment cohesiveness also strongly influences the morphology of deltas. We find that, holding all other factors constant, highly cohesive sediments form bird’s-foot deltas with rugose shorelines and highly complex floodplains, whereas less cohesive sediments result in fan-like deltas with smooth shorelines and flat floodplains. In our simulations, sediment cohesiveness also controls the number of channels that form within the deltas, and the average angle of bifurcation of those channels. As vegetation generally acts as a cohesive agent, we suggest that deltas that formed before the expansion of land plants in the Devonian period should show fan-like characteristics, a finding consistent with the limited data from the sedimentological record 11 .