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Winter wheat is one of the major cereal crops in the world. Monitoring and mapping its spatial distribution has significant implications for agriculture management, water resources utilization, and food security. Generally, winter wheat has distinguished phenological stages during the growing season, which form a unique EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) time series curve and differ considerably from other crop types and natural vegetation. Since early 2000, the MODIS EVI product has become the primary dataset for satellite-based crop monitoring at large scales due to its high temporal resolution, huge observation scope, and timely availability. However, the intraclass variability of winter wheat caused by field conditions and agricultural practices might lower the mapping accuracy, which has received little attention in previous studies. Here, we present a winter wheat mapping approach that integrates the variables derived from the MODIS EVI time series taking into account intraclass variability. We applied this approach to two winter wheat concentration areas, the state of Kansas in the U.S. and the North China Plain region (NCP). The results were evaluated against crop-specific maps or statistical data at the state/regional level, county level, and site level. Compared with statistical data, the accuracies in Kansas and the NCP were 95.1% and 92.9% at the state/regional level with R2 (Coefficient of Determination) values of 0.96 and 0.71 at the county level, respectively. Overall accuracies in confusion matrix were evaluated by validation samples in both Kansas (90.3%) and the NCP (85.0%) at the site level. Comparisons with methods without considering intraclass variability demonstrated that winter wheat mapping accuracies were improved by 17% in Kansas and 15% in the NCP using the improved approach. Further analysis indicated that our approach performed better in areas with lower landscape fragmentation, which may partly explain the relatively higher accuracy of winter wheat mapping in Kansas. This study provides a new perspective for generating multiple subclasses as training inputs to decrease the intraclass differences for crop type detection based on the MODIS EVI time series. This approach provides a flexible framework with few variables and fewer training samples that could facilitate its application to multiple-crop-type mapping at large scales.

Accurate phenological information is essential for monitoring crop development, predicting crop yield, and enhancing resilience to cope with climate change. This study employed a curve-change-based dynamic threshold approach on NDVI (Normalized Differential Vegetation Index) time series to detect the planting and harvesting dates for corn and soybean in Kentucky, a typical climatic transition zone, from 2000 to 2018. We compared satellite-based estimates with ground observations and performed trend analyses of crop phenological stages over the study period to analyze their relationships with climate change and crop yields. Our results showed that corn and soybean planting dates were delayed by 0.01 and 0.07 days/year, respectively. Corn harvesting dates were also delayed at a rate of 0.67 days/year, while advanced soybean harvesting occurred at a rate of 0.05 days/year. The growing season length has increased considerably at a rate of 0.66 days/year for corn and was shortened by 0.12 days/year for soybean. Sensitivity analysis showed that planting dates were more sensitive to the early season temperature, while harvesting dates were significantly correlated with temperature over the entire growing season. In terms of the changing climatic factors, only the increased summer precipitation was statistically related to the delayed corn harvesting dates in Kentucky. Further analysis showed that the increased corn yield was significantly correlated with the delayed harvesting dates (1.37 Bu/acre per day) and extended growing season length (1.67 Bu/acre per day). Our results suggested that seasonal climate change (e.g., summer precipitation) was the main factor influencing crop phenological trends, particularly corn harvesting in Kentucky over the study period. We also highlighted the critical role of changing crop phenology in constraining crop production, which needs further efforts for optimizing crop management practices.

The capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to sequester carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere is expected to be altered by climate change and CO2 fertilization, but this projection is limited by our understanding of how the soil system interacts with plants. Understanding the soil–vegetation interactions is essential to assess the magnitude and response of terrestrial ecosystems to the changing climate. Here, we used soil profile and satellite data to explore the role that soil properties play in regulating water and carbon use by plants. Data obtained for 19 terrestrial ecosystem sites in a warm temperate and humid climate were used to investigate the relationship between remotely sensed data and soil physical and chemical properties. Classification and regression tree results showed that in situ soil carbon isotope (δ13C), and soil order were significant predictors (r2 = 0.39, mean absolute error (MAE) = 0 of 0.175 gC/KgH2O) of remotely sensed water use efficiency (WUE) based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Soil extractable calcium (Ca), and land cover type were significant predictors of remotely sensed carbon use efficiency (CUE) based on MODIS and Landsat data-(r2 = 0.64–0.78, MAE = 0.04–0.06). We used gross primary productivity (GPP) derived from solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) data, based on the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), to calculate WUE and CUE (referred to as WUESIF and CUESIF, respectively) for our study sites. The regression tree analysis revealed that soil organic matter and soil extractable magnesium (Mg), δ13C, and soil silt content were the important predictors of both WUESIF (r2 = 0.19, MAE = 0.64 gC/KgH2O) and CUESIF (r2 = 0.45, MAE = 0.1), respectively. Our results revealed the importance of soil extractable Ca, soil carbon (S13C is a facet of soil carbon content), and soil organic matter predicting CUE and WUE. Insights gained from this study highlighted the importance of biotic and abiotic factors regulating plant and soil interactions. These types of data are timely and critical for accurate predictions of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to climate change.

Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) are fundamental to our understanding of how the land surface responds to changes in climate. However, MIPs are challenging to conduct, requiring the organization of multiple, decentralized modeling teams throughout the world running common protocols. We explored centralizing these models on a single supercomputing system. We ran nine offline terrestrial biosphere models through the Terrestrial Biosphere Model Farm: CABLE, CENTURY, HyLand, ISAM, JULES, LPJ‐GUESS, ORCHIDEE, SiB‐3, and SiB‐CASA. All models were wrapped in a software framework driven with common forcing data, spin‐up, and run protocols specified by the Multi‐scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP) for years 1901–2100. We ran more than a dozen model experiments. We identify three major benefits and three major challenges. The benefits include: (a) processing multiple models through a MIP is relatively straightforward, (b) MIP protocols are run consistently across models, which may reduce some model output variability, and (c) unique multimodel experiments can provide novel output for analysis. The challenges are: (a) technological demand is large, particularly for data and output storage and transfer; (b) model versions lag those from the core model development teams; and (c) there is still a need for intellectual input from the core model development teams for insight into model results. A merger with the open‐source, cloud‐based Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) ecoinformatics system may be a path forward to overcoming these challenges. Plain Language Summary Comparing models is fundamental to our understanding of how the land surface responds to changes in climate. However, these comparisons are challenging to conduct, requiring the organization of multiple, decentralized teams throughout the world. We explored centralizing these models on a single supercomputing system. The models were all run the same way. We ran more than a dozen model experiments. We identify three major benefits and three major challenges. The benefits include: (a) the centralized system takes a lot of burden off individual teams; (b) running models the same way helps to identify differences in how the world is represented in the models; and (c) the system allows us to run many model experiments relatively quickly. The challenges are: (a) lots of models require lots of data storage and transfer needs; (b) model versions lag those from the core model development teams; and (c) there is still a need for intellectual input from the core model development teams for insight into model results. Another system, called PEcAn, which has a lot of tools that can help overcome these challenges, can potentially be used in future work. Key Points We ran nine terrestrial biosphere models centralized on a common computing framework The Farm allows multiple MIP experiments to be run relatively quickly and uniformly Challenges included technological demand, model versioning, and interpretation of results

Terrestrial ecosystems carbon and water cycles are tightly coupled through photosynthesis and evapotranspiration processes. The ratios of carbon stored to carbon uptake and water loss to carbon gain are key ecophysiological indicators essential to assess the magnitude and response of the terrestrial plant to the changing climate. Here, we use estimates from 10 terrestrial ecosystem models to quantify the impacts of climate, atmospheric CO 2 concentration, and nitrogen (N) deposition on water use efficiency (WUE), and carbon use efficiency (CUE). We find that across models, WUE increases over the 20 th Century particularly due to CO 2 fertilization and N deposition and compares favorably to experimental studies. Also, the results show a decrease in WUE with climate for the last 3 decades, in contrasts with up-scaled flux observations that demonstrate a constant WUE. Modeled WUE responds minimally to climate with modeled CUE exhibiting no clear trend across space and time. The divergence between simulated and observationally-constrained WUE and CUE is driven by modeled NPP and autotrophic respiration, nitrogen cycle, carbon allocation, and soil moisture dynamics in current ecosystem models. We suggest that carbon-modeling community needs to reexamine stomatal conductance schemes and the soil-vegetation interactions for more robust modeling of carbon and water cycles.

We analysed the responses of 11 ecosystem models to elevated atmospheric [CO2] (eCO2) at two temperate forest ecosystems (Duke and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments) to test alternative representations of carbon (C)–nitrogen (N) cycle processes. * We decomposed the model responses into component processes affecting the response to eCO2 and confronted these with observations from the FACE experiments. * Most of the models reproduced the observed initial enhancement of net primary production (NPP) at both sites, but none was able to simulate both the sustained 10-yr enhancement at Duke and the declining response at ORNL: models generally showed signs of progressive N limitation as a result of lower than observed plant N uptake. Nonetheless, many models showed qualitative agreement with observed component processes. The results suggest that improved representation of above-ground–below-ground interactions and better constraints on plant stoichiometry are important for a predictive understanding of eCO2 effects. Improved accuracy of soil organic matter inventories is pivotal to reduce uncertainty in the observed C–N budgets. * The two FACE experiments are insufficient to fully constrain terrestrial responses to eCO2, given the complexity of factors leading to the observed diverging trends, and the consequential inability of the models to explain these trends. Nevertheless, the ecosystem models were able to capture important features of the experiments, lending some support to their projections.

Elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration (eCO₂) has the potential to increase vegetation carbon storage if increased net primary production causes increased long‐lived biomass. Model predictions of eCO₂ effects on vegetation carbon storage depend on how allocation and turnover processes are represented. We used data from two temperate forest free‐air CO₂ enrichment (FACE) experiments to evaluate representations of allocation and turnover in 11 ecosystem models. Observed eCO₂ effects on allocation were dynamic. Allocation schemes based on functional relationships among biomass fractions that vary with resource availability were best able to capture the general features of the observations. Allocation schemes based on constant fractions or resource limitations performed less well, with some models having unintended outcomes. Few models represent turnover processes mechanistically and there was wide variation in predictions of tissue lifespan. Consequently, models did not perform well at predicting eCO₂ effects on vegetation carbon storage. Our recommendations to reduce uncertainty include: use of allocation schemes constrained by biomass fractions; careful testing of allocation schemes; and synthesis of allocation and turnover data in terms of model parameters. Data from intensively studied ecosystem manipulation experiments are invaluable for constraining models and we recommend that such experiments should attempt to fully quantify carbon, water and nutrient budgets.

Elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration ( eCO 2 ) has the potential to increase vegetation carbon storage if increased net primary production causes increased long‐lived biomass. Model predictions of eCO 2 effects on vegetation carbon storage depend on how allocation and turnover processes are represented. We used data from two temperate forest free‐air CO 2 enrichment ( FACE ) experiments to evaluate representations of allocation and turnover in 11 ecosystem models. Observed eCO 2 effects on allocation were dynamic. Allocation schemes based on functional relationships among biomass fractions that vary with resource availability were best able to capture the general features of the observations. Allocation schemes based on constant fractions or resource limitations performed less well, with some models having unintended outcomes. Few models represent turnover processes mechanistically and there was wide variation in predictions of tissue lifespan. Consequently, models did not perform well at predicting eCO 2 effects on vegetation carbon storage. Our recommendations to reduce uncertainty include: use of allocation schemes constrained by biomass fractions; careful testing of allocation schemes; and synthesis of allocation and turnover data in terms of model parameters. Data from intensively studied ecosystem manipulation experiments are invaluable for constraining models and we recommend that such experiments should attempt to fully quantify carbon, water and nutrient budgets.

We analysed the responses of 11 ecosystem models to elevated atmospheric [ CO 2 ] (e CO 2 ) at two temperate forest ecosystems ( D uke and Oak Ridge National Laboratory ( ORNL ) F ree‐ A ir CO 2 E nrichment ( FACE ) experiments) to test alternative representations of carbon ( C )–nitrogen ( N ) cycle processes. We decomposed the model responses into component processes affecting the response to e CO 2 and confronted these with observations from the FACE experiments. Most of the models reproduced the observed initial enhancement of net primary production ( NPP ) at both sites, but none was able to simulate both the sustained 10‐yr enhancement at D uke and the declining response at ORNL : models generally showed signs of progressive N limitation as a result of lower than observed plant N uptake. Nonetheless, many models showed qualitative agreement with observed component processes. The results suggest that improved representation of above‐ground–below‐ground interactions and better constraints on plant stoichiometry are important for a predictive understanding of e CO 2 effects. Improved accuracy of soil organic matter inventories is pivotal to reduce uncertainty in the observed C – N budgets. The two FACE experiments are insufficient to fully constrain terrestrial responses to eCO 2 , given the complexity of factors leading to the observed diverging trends, and the consequential inability of the models to explain these trends. Nevertheless, the ecosystem models were able to capture important features of the experiments, lending some support to their projections. See also the Commentary by Bonan