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"Elazhary, Ramy Hosny"
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Stock Market Influence on Domestic Savings in Egypt
by
Amer, Gomaa Mohamed Mohamed
,
Elazhary, Ramy Hosny
,
Amer, Nada Salah
in
الاستقرار المالي
,
التنمية الاقتصادية
,
القطاع المصرفي
2024
The increasing domestic resources gap and its potential negative impacts on macroeconomic variables and economic stability in Egypt exerted significant pressure on providing necessary finance to support economic growth and achieve acceptable levels of prosperity. This raises the critical question about the role of financial markets in acting as intermediaries in aggregating domestic savings, especially the stock market. Thus, this study seeks to examine the role of the Egyptian stock exchange in mobilizing domestic savings using a structural equation model SEM and a path analysis approach through monthly data from 2015 to 2023. A system of four structural equations was constructed to investigate the role the stock market could play in mobilizing domestic savings amid the dynamics of financial markets. The study found a positive role that the stock exchange could play compared to the banking sector in mobilizing savings and the mechanism of its influence on changes in nominal and real interest rates and the inflation rate. The model incorporated the crowding-out effect that could occur in markets and the different impacts of various groups' ability to bear risks. This contributes to our understanding of financial markets and their mechanism of influence, supporting their pivotal role in financial intermediation, leading to improved opportunities for economic growth and financial stability.
Journal Article
Foreign Direct Investment and Industry Value-Added in Egypt
by
Hashem, Ahmed Hamdy
,
Elazhary, Ramy Hosny
,
Eltayb, Amira Tohamy
in
الاستثمارات الأجنبية
,
القطاع الصناعي
,
القيمة المضافة
2024
This research delves into the complex relationship between FDI and industrial value-added in Egypt, focusing on economic complexity as a critical factor. Using data from 1998 to 2021 and advanced econometric techniques, including threshold regression analysis, we uncover the non-linear dynamics of FDI's impact on Egypt's industrial sector. Our results challenge traditional linear models, revealing that FDI's influence on industrial value-added is not straightforward. We also find that control variables like human development, trade openness, economic growth, and political stability have significant positive effects on industrial value-added, in line with established economic theories. Importantly, we introduce economic complexity as a pivotal factor shaping this relationship. We use three dimensions of economic complexity -exports, technology, and research- as threshold indicators. Each dimension has a unique threshold value, highlighting the importance of fostering economic complexity in various aspects to attract FDI and promote industrial development. Specifically, our study identifies a U-shaped relationship between FDI and industrial value-added, where FDI has a negative impact when economic complexity is below a certain threshold but becomes positive as complexity exceeds it. This underscores the necessity of policies that promote economic diversification and sophistication. Furthermore, our research underscores the significance of technology and research-based economic complexity. As technological and research capabilities grow, attracting FDI depends on local capacity building rather than simple technology transfer. In conclusion, our research offers valuable insights for policymakers, emphasizing the importance of strategically promoting FDI in alignment with a country's economic complexity. This implies the need to invest in human capital, enhance economic complexity, and implement adaptable policies that respond to evolving complexity landscapes. These findings provide a strong foundation for addressing the challenges of industrial development in our increasingly interconnected global economy.
Journal Article
The Impact of Workers' Remittances on the Economic Growth in Egypt
by
Eladham, Fathy M
,
Elakkad, Medhat M
,
Elazhary, Ramy Hosny
in
التحويلات المالية
,
التنمية الاقتصادية
,
الشمول المالي
2023
This study aims to evaluate the impact of remittances from overseas workers on Egyptian economic growth within the financial inclusion framework as a moderating factor. Utilizing annual time-series data from 2004 to 2020 and the boundaries test approach, which relies on the ARDL model, the study found a non-linear relationship between remittances from overseas workers and economic growth in both the short and long-run. This nonlinear relationship is represented as a U-shaped curve, suggesting that the beneficial impact of remittances on economic growth is only apparent when their growth rate exceeds 41.37 percent. This threshold was met in only three years: 2005, when remittances increased by 50.2 %; 2007, with a growth rate of 43.6 %; and 2010, with a growth rate of 74.2 %. Furthermore, the study found that financial inclusion has an insignificant positive impact on economic growth in both the short and long runs. Furthermore, the degree of financial inclusion did not strengthen the relationship between remittances and economic growth. Based on the results of both Cohen's d effect size and the correlation indexes, the relationship between remittances and economic growth has significant practical importance, regardless of whether the growth rate of remittances exceeds or falls below the 41 percent threshold each year.
Journal Article
Quantifying Climate Risks
by
Hashem, Ahmed Hamdy
,
Elazhary, Ramy Hosny
,
Eltayb, Amira Tohamy
in
التضخم الاقتصادي
,
التغيرات المناخية
,
الكوارث الطبيعية
2023
Climate change poses a critical challenge in our era. In this study, we use quantitative methodology to examine the effect of natural disasters on inflation and GDP growth caused by weather. Using time series data for Egypt spanning the period 1965-2021. Based on Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR), the analysis reveals that inflation and growth respond very modestly to weather-related natural disasters but differ regarding the direction and magnitude of climate shocks. Temperature shocks, storms, and floods lead to a decrease in inflation rates, while earthquakes increase inflation rates. While flood shocks appear to lead to a permanent increase in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, the effects of temperature, storms, and earthquakes are more volatile and less persistent in the long run. In the case of temperature shocks, the growth slowdown extends beyond seven years from the shock. At this point, real GDP growth is lower by approximately 3.8 percentage points than if the temperature shock had not occurred.
Journal Article
Finance Growth Nexus
2017
One of the most significant current discussions in theoretical and empirical economics philosophy, is the role of the financial sector in the economy. Financial sector constitutes an important factor in reflecting the current and future ingredients of prospering the economy. Moreover. Financial depth as one of the financial development main pillars, plays a key role in the finance- growth nexus. Thus, financial depth represents a pivotal aspect in analyzing financial sector. Financial depth-growth nexus has received a considerable attention over time, at both background and empirical literature. Debate regarding causality direction still standing, however, correlation relationship has been confirmed in different situations. Hence, the aim of this paper is to investigate the long-run nexus of financial deepening and economic growth, and the short-run dynamics.
Journal Article