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"Elgie, Robert"
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Maximizing the Reliability of Cross-National Measures of Presidential Power
This article aims to maximize the reliability of presidential power scores for a larger number of countries and time periods than currently exists for any single measure, and in a way that is replicable and easy to update. It begins by identifying all of the studies that have estimated the effect of a presidential power variable, clarifying what scholars have attempted to capture when they have operationalized the concept of presidential power. It then identifies all the measures of presidential power that have been proposed over the years, noting the problems associated with each. To generate the new set of presidential power scores, the study draws upon the comparative and local knowledge embedded in existing measures of presidential power. Employing principal component analysis, together with the expectation maximization algorithm and maximum likelihood estimation, a set of presidential power scores is generated for a larger set of countries and country time periods than currently exists, reporting 95 per cent confidence intervals and standard errors for the scores. Finally, the implications of the new set of scores for future studies of presidential power is discussed.
Journal Article
Varieties of Presidentialism & of Leadership Outcomes
This essay explores aspects of the relationship between political leadership and institutional power, comparing the different forms that presidential institutions have taken across the world and identifying the relationship between these structures and social, political, and economic outcomes. Semipresidential systems are distinguished from presidential systems, and within the former, a distinction is made between president-parliamentary and premier-presidential regimes. Some scholars have argued that presidential regimes are less conducive to the successful transition from authoritarian rule to democracy than are parliamentary governments, but the empirical evidence is contradictory. Recent research has, however, drawn attention to finer distinctions within the various broad categories of presidentialism, focusing on more precise institutional arrangements and trying to identify which are more, and which are less, consonant with the consolidation of democracy.
Journal Article
The politics of presidential term limits
Presidential term limits are one of the most important institutions in presidentialism. They are at the center of contemporary and historical debates and political battles between incumbent presidents seeking additional terms and their political opponents warning against democratic backsliding and the dangers of personalism. Bringing the team of country experts, comparativists, theorists, constitutional lawyers, and policy practitioners together, The Politics of Presidential Term Limits is a book that aims to provide a one-stop source for the comprehensive study of this topic. It includes theory and survey chapters that explain presidential term limits as an idea, constitutional norm, and an institution; country and comparative chapters including historical, intra-regime, and comparative regional studies, chapters that examine the effects of term limits as well as studies from the perspective of on-the-ground international constitutional builders and that ask what difference do term limits make.--Provided by publisher
Book
Exogenous Political Institutions? Constitutional Choice in Postindependence Francophone Sub-Saharan Africa
The study of the effects of institutions suffers from a potential endogeneity problem. This article proposes a strategy for addressing this problem by estimating the motivations for institutional choice directly. It identifies the motivations behind the wording of postindependence constitutions in Francophone sub-Saharan Africa. The author finds that constitutional wording in these countries has been motivated by the strength of ties with France. However, contrary to standard narratives, domestic political preferences also have been influential. By estimating the motivations for institutional choice directly, scholars are better placed to draw conclusions about the independent effect of institutions in this region.
Journal Article
Semi-presidentialism and democracy
\"This book explores the effect of semi-presidentialism on newly-democratising countries. In recent years semi-presidentialism -- the situation where a constitution makes provision for both a directly elected president and a prime minister who is responsible to the legislature -- has become the regime type of choice for many countries\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Semi-presidentialism, Cohabitation and the Collapse of Electoral Democracies, 1990–2008
Semi-presidentialism is the situation where a constitution makes provision for both a directly elected fixed-term president and a prime minister and cabinet who are responsible to the legislature. A common argument against the adoption of a semi-presidential constitution by a new democracy is the problem of cohabitation – where a president from one party holds power at the same time as a prime minister from an opposing party and where the president's party is not represented in the cabinet. The concern is that cohabitation creates competing power centres within the executive that are dangerous for young democracies. This article shows that cohabitation has been directly associated with the collapse of a young democracy in only one case. Moreover, by specifying the conditions under which cohabitation can occur, we also show that the threat of cohabitation has been associated with collapse in only one further case. We suggest that this is so because cohabitation refers to a very specific situation that can only occur under a certain combination of circumstances that can often be avoided. Overall, we show that there is little evidence to support one of the most well-known and long-standing arguments against semi-presidentialism. Thus, while semi-presidentialism may indeed be perilous for new democracies, we conclude that it is perilous for reasons other than the problem of cohabitation.
Journal Article
Political Fragmentation, Fiscal Deficits and Political Institutionalisation
One line of research finds the size of the deficit to be positively correlated with the number of political actors. This 'political fragmentation' hypothesis has been tested on OECD countries. We successfully replicate Volkerink and de Haan's (Public Choice 109: 221–242, 2001) model on an OECD sample. However, when we add ten non-OECD countries, the effect of political fragmentation disappears. We argue that the importance of political fragmentation varies according to the institutionalization of political systems. When we interact the age of a democracy with political fragmentation, we find that legislative fractional isation increases the budget deficit as a democracy becomes more institutionalised.
Journal Article
The Politics of Central Banks
This book is a study of power. In particular, it is a study of governmental power in Britain and France. Its focus is the changing relationship between the government and the central bank in the two countries, and it examines the politics of this relationship since the time when the Bank of England and the Bank of France were first created. The book begins by considering the issue of governmental control generally. It then focuses on monetary policy making, and asks what has been the role of governments in this area and what freedom have central banks enjoyed? After a detailed historical analysis of this issue in Britain and France, the authors conclude by considering the likely role of the European Central Bank.
eBook