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Background Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women worldwide, with a great diversity in outcomes among individual patients. The ability to accurately predict a breast cancer outcome is important to patients, physicians, researchers, and policy makers. Many models have been developed and tested in different settings. We systematically reviewed the prognostic models developed and/or validated for patients with breast cancer. Methods We conducted a systematic search in four electronic databases and some oncology websites, and a manual search in the bibliographies of the included studies. We identified original studies that were published prior to 1st January 2017, and presented the development and/or validation of models based mainly on clinico-pathological factors to predict mortality and/or recurrence in female breast cancer patients. Results From the 96 articles selected from 4095 citations found, we identified 58 models, which predicted mortality ( n  = 28), recurrence ( n  = 23), or both ( n  = 7). The most frequently used predictors were nodal status ( n  = 49), tumour size ( n  = 42), tumour grade ( n  = 29), age at diagnosis ( n  = 24), and oestrogen receptor status ( n  = 21). Models were developed in Europe ( n  = 25), Asia ( n  = 13), North America ( n  = 12), and Australia ( n  = 1) between 1982 and 2016. Models were validated in the development cohorts ( n  = 43) and/or independent populations ( n  = 17), by comparing the predicted outcomes with the observed outcomes ( n  = 55) and/or with the outcomes estimated by other models ( n  = 32), or the outcomes estimated by individual prognostic factors ( n  = 8). The most commonly used methods were: Cox proportional hazards regression for model development ( n  = 32); the absolute differences between the predicted and observed outcomes ( n  = 30) for calibration; and C-index/AUC ( n  = 44) for discrimination. Overall, the models performed well in the development cohorts but less accurately in some independent populations, particularly in patients with high risk and young and elderly patients. An exception is the Nottingham Prognostic Index, which retains its predicting ability in most independent populations. Conclusions Many prognostic models have been developed for breast cancer, but only a few have been validated widely in different settings. Importantly, their performance was suboptimal in independent populations, particularly in patients with high risk and in young and elderly patients.

Reassesses and reviews published comments and citations of a 2012 study which reported that the children of male New Zealand soldiers who served in the 'Emergency' in Malaya between 1948 and 1960 and used dibutyl phthalate (DBP) on their clothing showed increased risks of hypospadias, cryptorchidism, and breast cancer. Source: National Library of New Zealand Te Puna Matauranga o Aotearoa, licensed by the Department of Internal Affairs for re-use under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 New Zealand Licence.

Estimates the population-based incidence rates of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation-positive and EGFR mutation-negative non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in different population groups in NZ defined by sex, ethnic group - especially the indigenous Māori people and Pacific peoples - and smoking status, based on northern NZ data. Source: National Library of New Zealand Te Puna Matauranga o Aotearoa, licensed by the Department of Internal Affairs for re-use under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 New Zealand Licence.

Purpose Beta blockers (BB) have been associated with improved, worsened, or unchanged breast cancer outcomes in previous studies. This study examines the association between the post-diagnostic use of BBs and death from breast cancer in a large, representative sample of New Zealand (NZ) women with breast cancer. Methods Women diagnosed with a first primary breast cancer between 2007 and 2016 were identified from four population-based regional NZ breast cancer registries and linked to national pharmaceutical data, hospital discharges, and death records. The median follow-up time was 4.51 years. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard of breast cancer-specific death (BCD) associated with any post-diagnostic BB use. Results Of the 14,976 women included in analyses, 21% used a BB after diagnosis. BB use (vs non-use) was associated with a small and nonstatistically significant increased risk of BCD (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.11; 95% CI 0.95–1.29). A statistically significant increased risk confined to short-term use (0–3 months) was seen (HR = 1.40; 1.14–1.73), and this risk steadily decreased with increasing duration of use and became a statistically significant protective effect at 3 + years of use (HR = 0.55; 0.34–0.88). Conclusion Our findings suggest that any increased risk associated with BB use may be driven by risk in the initial few months of use. Long-term BB use may be associated with a reduction in BCD.

Cancer survival varies widely between countries. The CONCORD study provides survival estimates for 1·9 million adults (aged 15–99 years) diagnosed with a first, primary, invasive cancer of the breast (women), colon, rectum, or prostate during 1990–94 and followed up to 1999, by use of individual tumour records from 101 population-based cancer registries in 31 countries on five continents. This is, to our knowledge, the first worldwide analysis of cancer survival, with standard quality-control procedures and identical analytic methods for all datasets. To compensate for wide international differences in general population (background) mortality by age, sex, country, region, calendar period, and (in the USA) ethnic origin, we estimated relative survival, the ratio of survival noted in the patients with cancer, and the survival that would have been expected had they been subject only to the background mortality rates. 2800 life tables were constructed. Survival estimates were also adjusted for differences in the age structure of populations of patients with cancer. Global variation in cancer survival was very wide. 5-year relative survival for breast, colorectal, and prostate cancer was generally higher in North America, Australia, Japan, and northern, western, and southern Europe, and lower in Algeria, Brazil, and eastern Europe. CONCORD has provided the first opportunity to estimate cancer survival in 11 states in USA covered by the National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR), and the study covers 42% of the US population, four-fold more than previously available. Cancer survival in black men and women was systematically and substantially lower than in white men and women in all 16 states and six metropolitan areas included. Relative survival for all ethnicities combined was 2–4% lower in states covered by NPCR than in areas covered by the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program. Age-standardised relative survival by use of the appropriate race-specific and state-specific life tables was up to 2% lower for breast cancer and up to 5% lower for prostate cancer than with the census-derived national life tables used by the SEER Program. These differences in population coverage and analytical method have both contributed to the survival deficit noted between Europe and the USA, from which only SEER data have been available until now. Until now, direct comparisons of cancer survival between high-income and low-income countries have not generally been available. The information provided here might therefore be a useful stimulus for change. The findings should eventually facilitate joint assessment of international trends in incidence, survival, and mortality as indicators of cancer control. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, GA, USA), Department of Health (London, UK), Cancer Research UK (London, UK).

Background New Zealand has major ethnic disparities in breast cancer survival with Māori (indigenous people) and Pacific women (immigrants or descended from immigrants from Pacific Islands) faring much worse than other ethnic groups. This paper identified underlying factors and assessed their relative contribution to this risk differential. Methods This study involved all women who were diagnosed with primary invasive breast cancer in two health regions, covering about 40% of the national population, between January 2000 and June 2014. Māori and Pacific patients were compared with other ethnic groups in terms of demographics, mode of diagnosis, disease factors and treatment factors. Cox regression modelling was performed with stepwise adjustments, and hazards of excess mortality from breast cancer for Māori and Pacific patients were assessed. Results Of the 13,657 patients who were included in this analysis, 1281 (9.4%) were Māori, and 897 (6.6%) were Pacific women. Compared to other ethnic groups, they were younger, more likely to reside in deprived neighbourhoods and to have co-morbidities, and less likely to be diagnosed through screening and with early stage cancer, to be treated in a private care facility, to receive timely cancer treatment, and to receive breast conserving surgery. They had a higher risk of excess mortality from breast cancer (age and year of diagnosis adjusted hazard ratio: 1.76; 95% CI: 1.51–2.04 for Māori and 1.97; 95% CI: 1.67–2.32 for Pacific women), of which 75% and 99% respectively were explained by baseline differences. The most important contributor was late stage at diagnosis. Other contributors included neighbourhood deprivation, mode of diagnosis, type of health care facility where primary cancer treatment was undertaken and type of loco-regional therapy. Conclusions Late diagnosis, deprivation and differential access to and quality of cancer care services were the key contributors to ethnic disparities in breast cancer survival in New Zealand. Our findings underscore the need for a greater equity focus along the breast cancer care pathway, with an emphasis on improving access to early diagnosis for Māori and Pacific women.

Background Despite many background similarities, New Zealand showed excess cancer deaths compared to Australia in previous studies. This study extends this comparison using the most recent data of 2014-2018. Methods This study used publicly available cancer mortality and incidence data of New Zealand Ministry of Health and Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, and resident population data of Statistics New Zealand. Australian cancer mortality and incidence rates were applied to New Zealand population, by site of cancer, year, age and sex, to estimate the expected numbers, which were compared with the New Zealand observed numbers. Results For total cancers in 2014-2018, New Zealand had 780 excess deaths in women (17.1% of the annual total 4549; 95% confidence interval (CI) 15.8-18.4%), and 281 excess deaths in men (5.5% of the annual total 5105; 95% CI 4.3-6.7%) compared to Australia. The excess was contributed by many major cancers including colorectal, melanoma, and stomach cancer in both sexes; lung, uterine, and breast cancer in women, and prostate cancer in men. New Zealand’s total cancer incidences were lower than those expected from Australia’s in both women and men: average annual difference of 419 cases (−3.6% of the annual total 11 505; 95% CI −4.5 to −2.8%), and 1485 (−11.7% of the annual total 12 669; 95% CI -12.5 to −10.9%), respectively. Comparing time periods, the excesses in total cancer deaths in women were 15.1% in 2000-07, and 17.5% in 1996-1997; and in men 4.7% in 2000-2007 and 5.6% in 1996-1997. The differences by time period were non-significant. Conclusion Excess mortality from all cancers combined and several common cancers in New Zealand, compared to Australia, persisted in 2014-2018, being similar to excesses in 2000-2007 and 1996-1997. It cannot be explained by differences in incidence, but may be attributable to various aspects of health systems governance and performance.

Background Women with early breast cancer who meet guideline-based criteria should be offered breast conserving surgery (BCS) with adjuvant radiotherapy as an alternative to mastectomy. New Zealand (NZ) has documented ethnic disparities in screening access and in breast cancer treatment pathways. This study aimed to determine whether, among BCS-eligible women, rates of receipt of mastectomy or radiotherapy differed by ethnicity and other factors. Methods The study assessed management of women with early breast cancer (ductal carcinoma in situ [DCIS] and invasive stages I-IIIA) registered between 2010 and 2015, extracted from the recently consolidated New Zealand Breast Cancer Registry (now Te Rēhita Mate Ūtaetae NZBCF National Breast Cancer Register). Specific criteria were applied to determine women eligible for BCS. Uni- and multivariable analyses were undertaken to examine differences by demographic and clinicopathological factors with a primary focus on ethnicity (Māori, Pacific, Asian, and Other; the latter is defined as NZ European, Other European, and Middle Eastern Latin American and African). Results Overall 22.2% of 5520 BCS-eligible women were treated with mastectomy, and 91.1% of 3807 women who undertook BCS received adjuvant radiotherapy (93.5% for invasive cancer, and 78.3% for DCIS). Asian ethnicity was associated with a higher mastectomy rate in the invasive cancer group (OR 2.18; 95%CI 1.72–2.75), compared to Other ethnicity, along with older age, symptomatic diagnosis, advanced stage, larger tumour, HER2-positive, and hormone receptor-negative groups. Pacific ethnicity was associated with a lower adjuvant radiotherapy rate, compared to Other ethnicity, in both invasive and DCIS groups, along with older age, symptomatic diagnosis, and lower grade tumour in the invasive group. Both mastectomy and adjuvant radiotherapy rates decreased over time. For those who did not receive radiotherapy, non-referral by a clinician was the most common documented reason (8%), followed by patient decline after being referred (5%). Conclusion Rates of radiotherapy use are high by international standards. Further research is required to understand differences by ethnicity in both rates of mastectomy and lower rates of radiotherapy after BCS for Pacific women, and the reasons for non-referral by clinicians.

Investigates whether women with breast cancer who received private health care had better survival rates compared to those who received public care. Identifies factors that could explain any disparities, including the relative contribution of demographic, disease and treatment factors. Source: National Library of New Zealand Te Puna Matauranga o Aotearoa, licensed by the Department of Internal Affairs for re-use under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 New Zealand Licence.

Background Targeted treatment with Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) is superior to systemic chemotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with EGFR gene mutations. Detection of EGFR mutations is a challenge in many patients due to the lack of suitable tumour specimens for molecular testing or for other reasons. EGFR mutations are more common in female, Asian and never smoking NSCLC patients. Methods Patients were from a population-based retrospective cohort of 3556 patients diagnosed with non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer in northern New Zealand between 1 Feb 2010 and 31 July 2017. A total of 1694 patients were tested for EGFR mutations, of which information on 1665 patients was available for model development and validation. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed based on 1176 tested patients, and validated in 489 tested patients. Among 1862 patients not tested for EGFR mutations, 129 patients were treated with EGFR-TKIs. Their EGFR mutation probabilities were calculated using the model, and their duration of benefit and overall survival from the start of EGFR-TKI were compared among the three predicted probability groups: < 0.2, 0.2–0.6, and > 0.6. Results The model has three predictors: sex, ethnicity and smoking status, and is presented as a nomogram to calculate EGFR mutation probabilities. The model performed well in the validation group (AUC = 0.75). The probability cut-point of 0.2 corresponds 68% sensitivity and 78% specificity. The model predictions were related to outcome in a group of TKI-treated patients with no biopsy testing available ( n  = 129); in subgroups with predicted probabilities of < 0.2, 0.2–0.6, and > 0.6, median overall survival times from starting EGFR-TKI were 4.0, 5.5 and 18.3 months ( p  = 0.02); and median times remaining on EGFR-TKI treatment were 2.0, 4.2, and 14.0 months, respectively ( p  < 0.001). Conclusion Our model may assist clinical decision making for patients in whom tissue-based mutation testing is difficult or as a supplement to mutation testing.