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7 result(s) for "Endsley, Arthur"
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Estimating local biodiversity change: a critique of papers claiming no net loss of local diversity
Global species extinction rates are orders of magnitude above the background rate documented in the fossil record. However, recent data syntheses have found mixed evidence for patterns of net species loss at local spatial scales. For example, two recent data meta-analyses have found that species richness is decreasing in some locations and is increasing in others. When these trends are combined, these papers argued there has been no net change in species richness, and suggested this pattern is globally representative of biodiversity change at local scales. Here we reanalyze results of these data syntheses and outline why this conclusion is unfounded. First, we show the datasets collated for these syntheses are spatially biased and not representative of the spatial distribution of species richness or the distribution of many primary drivers of biodiversity change. This casts doubt that their results are representative of global patterns. Second, we argue that detecting the trend in local species richness is very difficult with short time series and can lead to biased estimates of change. Reanalyses of the data detected a signal of study duration on biodiversity change, indicating net biodiversity loss is most apparent in studies of longer duration. Third, estimates of species richness change can be biased if species gains during post-disturbance recovery are included without also including species losses that occurred during the disturbance. Net species gains or losses should be assessed with respect to common baselines or reference communities. Ultimately, we need a globally coordinated effort to monitor biodiversity so that we can estimate and attribute human impacts as causes of biodiversity change. A combination of technologies will be needed to produce regularly updated global datasets of local biodiversity change to guide future policy. At this time the conclusion that there is no net change in local species richness is not the consensus state of knowledge.
Soil Respiration Phenology Improves Modeled Phase of Terrestrial Net Ecosystem Exchange in Northern Hemisphere
In the northern hemisphere, terrestrial ecosystems transition from net sources of CO2 to the atmosphere in winter to net ecosystem carbon sinks during spring. The timing (or phase) of this transition, determined by the balance between ecosystem respiration (RECO) and primary production, is key to estimating the amplitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. We diagnose an apparent phase bias in the RECO and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) seasonal cycles estimated by the Terrestrial Carbon Flux (TCF) model framework and investigate its link to soil respiration mechanisms. Satellite observations of vegetation canopy conditions, surface meteorology, and soil moisture from the NASA SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture product are used to model a daily carbon budget for a global network of eddy covariance flux towers. Proposed modifications to TCF include: the inhibition of foliar respiration in the light (the Kok effect); a seasonally varying litterfall phenology; an O2 diffusion limitation on heterotrophic respiration (RH); and a vertically resolved soil decomposition model. We find that RECO phase bias can result from bias in RECO magnitude and that mechanisms which reduce northern spring RECO, like substrate and O2 diffusion limitations, can mitigate the phase bias. A vertically resolved soil decomposition model mitigates this bias by temporally segmenting and lagging RH. Applying these model enhancements at Continuous Soil Respiration (COSORE) sites verifies their improvement of RECO and NEE skill compared to in situ observations (up to ∆RMSE = −0.76 g C m−2 d −1 35 ). Ultimately, these mechanisms can improve prior estimates of NEE for atmospheric inversion studies.
Modeling Regional-Scale Wildland Fire Emissions with the Wildland Fire Emissions Information System
As carbon modeling tools become more comprehensive, spatial data are needed to improve quantitative maps of carbon emissions from fire. The Wildland Fire Emissions Information System (WFEIS) provides mapped estimates of carbon emissions from historical forest fires in the United States through a web browser. WFEIS improves access to data and provides a consistent approach to estimating emissions at landscape, regional, and continental scales. The system taps into data and tools developed by the U.S. Forest Service to describe fuels, fuel loadings, and fuel consumption and merges information from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration on fire location and timing. Currently, WFEIS provides web access to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) burned area for North America and U.S. fire-perimeter maps from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity products from the USGS, overlays them on 1-km fuel maps for the United States, and calculates fuel consumption and emissions with an open-source version of the Consume model. Mapped fuel moisture is derived from daily meteorological data from remote automated weather stations. In addition to tabular output results, WFEIS produces multiple vector and raster formats. This paper provides an overview of the WFEIS system, including the web-based system functionality and datasets used for emissions estimates. WFEIS operates on the web and is built using open-source software components that work with open international standards such as keyhole markup language (KML). Examples of emissions outputs from WFEIS are presented showing that the system provides results that vary widely across the many ecosystems of North America and are consistent with previous emissions modeling estimates and products.
Housing Market Activity is Associated with Disparities in Urban and Metropolitan Vegetation
In urban areas, the consistent and positive association between vegetation density and household income has been explained historically by either the capitalization of larger lawns and lower housing densities or landscaping and lifestyle districts that convey prestige. Yet cities with shrinking populations and rising land burdens often exhibit high vegetation density in declining neighborhoods. Because the observed associations do not directly address the causal connection between measures of social privilege and vegetation in urban landscapes, it is difficult to understand the forces that maintain them. Here, we compare patterns of household income with new measures derived from housing market data and other parcel-level sources—sale prices, tax foreclosures, new housing construction, demolitions, and the balance of construction and demolition. Our aim is to evaluate whether these spatially, temporally and semantically finer measures of neighborhood social conditions are better predictors of the distribution of urban vegetation. Furthermore, we examine how these relationships differ at two scales: within the City of Detroit and across the Detroit metropolitan area. We demonstrate, first, that linear relationships between income or home values and urban vegetation, though evident at broad metropolitan scales, do not explain recent variations in vegetation density within the City of Detroit. Second, we find that the real estate and demolition records demonstrate a stronger relationship with changes in vegetation density than corresponding changes in US Census measures like income, which suggests they hold at least as much interest for understanding how the relationships between biophysical changes and neighborhood change processes come about.
Coupling Remote Sensing With a Process Model for the Simulation of Rangeland Carbon Dynamics
Rangelands provide significant environmental benefits through many ecosystem services, which may include soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, quantifying SOC stocks and monitoring carbon (C) fluxes in rangelands are challenging due to the considerable spatial and temporal variability tied to rangeland C dynamics as well as limited data availability. We developed the Rangeland Carbon Tracking and Management (RCTM) system to track long‐term changes in SOC and ecosystem C fluxes by leveraging remote sensing inputs and environmental variable data sets with algorithms representing terrestrial C‐cycle processes. Bayesian calibration was conducted using quality‐controlled C flux data sets obtained from 61 Ameriflux and NEON flux tower sites from Western and Midwestern US rangelands to parameterize the model according to dominant vegetation classes (perennial and/or annual grass, grass‐shrub mixture, and grass‐tree mixture). The resulting RCTM system produced higher model accuracy for estimating annual cumulative gross primary productivity (GPP) (R2 > 0.6, RMSE <390 g C m−2) relative to net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) (R2 > 0.4, RMSE <180 g C m−2). Model performance in estimating rangeland C fluxes varied by season and vegetation type. The RCTM captured the spatial variability of SOC stocks with R2 = 0.6 when validated against SOC measurements across 13 NEON sites. Model simulations indicated slightly enhanced SOC stocks for the flux tower sites during the past decade, which is mainly driven by an increase in precipitation. Future efforts to refine the RCTM system will benefit from long‐term network‐based monitoring of vegetation biomass, C fluxes, and SOC stocks. Plain Language Summary Rangelands play a crucial role in providing various ecosystem services, including potential climate change mitigation through increased soil organic carbon (SOC) storage. Accurate estimates of changes in carbon (C) storage are challenging due to the heterogeneous nature of rangelands and the limited availability of field observations. In this work, we leveraged remote sensing observations, tower‐based C flux measurements from over 60 rangeland sites in the Western and Midwestern US, and other environmental data sets to build the process‐based Rangeland Carbon Tracking and Management (RCTM) modeling system. The RCTM system is designed to simulate the past 20 years of rangeland C dynamics and is regionally calibrated. The RCTM system performs well in estimating spatial and temporal rangeland C fluxes as well as spatial SOC storage. Model simulation results revealed increased SOC storage and rangeland productivity driven by annual precipitation patterns. The RCTM system developed by this work can be used to generate accurate spatial and temporal estimates of SOC storage and C fluxes at fine spatial (30 m) and temporal (every 5 days) resolutions, and is well‐suited for informing rangeland C management strategies and improving broad‐scale policy making. Key Points The Rangeland Carbon Tracking and Monitoring System was calibrated to simulate vegetation type‐specific rangeland C dynamics Regional variability in carbon fluxes and soil organic carbon is well represented by a remote sensing‐driven process modeling approach Soil organic carbon stocks in Western and Midwestern US rangelands increased over the past 20 years due to increased precipitation
Change Is Hard: Understanding Neighborhood Context and Socio-ecological Change with Time-series Remote Sensing
Quality of life in urban areas is strongly linked to land use and land cover, in part because green vegetation mitigates much of the negative consequences of urbanization and population pressures. However, the green vegetation of urban parks, forests, street trees, and landscaping is inequitably distributed in the urban environment. The social and economic processes that give rise to these uneven outcomes are not well-understood, while the rise in the availability of spatially explicit, fine-scale data on neighborhood conditions has created the conditions for an empirically rich investigation into neighborhood socio-ecological change. This dissertation assimilates new observations from different sources with new modes of inquiry to address persistent knowledge gaps: the dependence of socio-ecological relationships on scale and urban or metropolitan context; understanding the duration and significance of neighborhood improvement or decline; and the outstanding need for comparative analyses and novel analytical techniques for comparing neighborhood change between multiple metropolitan areas. Time-series satellite remote sensing of 30 years of vegetation cover is combined with population and housing market data to provide a comprehensive picture of the neighborhood environmental quality, demographic composition, and housing stock conditions. Three different metropolitan areas, Detroit, Los Angeles, and Seattle, are used to elucidate how our common assumptions of socio-ecological relations---and the underlying analytical approaches in which remote sensing plays a pivotal role---often fail to accurately capture the complexities and contradistinctions in the social and economic drivers of neighborhood-level biophysical changes. Results indicate that while population decline confounds conventional explanations for socio-economic differences in environmental quality, neighborhood advantages and disadvantages persist for multiple decades, with wealthier neighborhoods tending to resist cyclical declines in the housing market and accrue yet higher home values while preserving and increasing vegetated cover through irrigation and likely several policy tools. Historical conditions, particularly racial residential segregation, also yield surprising outcomes today, in some places reducing vegetation disparities and exacerbating them in others, depending on metropolitan-level population pressures and the balance of municipal political economies.
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