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Land-cover change and habitat loss are widely recognised as the major drivers of biodiversity loss in the world. Land-cover maps derived from satellite imagery provide useful tools for monitoring land-use and land-cover change. KwaZulu-Natal, a populous yet biodiversity-rich province in South Africa, is one of the first provinces to produce a set of three directly comparable land-cover maps (2005, 2008 and 2011). These maps were used to investigate systematic land-cover changes occurring in the province with a focus on biodiversity conservation. The Intensity Analysis framework was used for the analysis as this quantitative hierarchical method addresses shortcomings of other established land-cover change analyses. In only 6 years (2005-2011), a massive 7.6% of the natural habitat of the province was lost to anthropogenic transformation of the landscape. The major drivers of habitat loss were agriculture, timber plantations, the built environment, dams and mines. Categorical swapping formed a significant part of landscape change, including a return from anthropogenic categories to secondary vegetation, which we suggest should be tracked in analyses. Longer-term rates of habitat loss were determined using additional land-cover maps (1994, 2000). An average of 1.2% of the natural landscape has been transformed per annum since 1994. Apart from the direct loss of natural habitat, the anthropogenically transformed land covers all pose additional negative impacts for biodiversity remaining in these or surrounding areas. A target of no more than 50% of habitat loss should be adopted to adequately conserve biodiversity in the province. Our analysis provides the first provincial assessment of the rate of loss of natural habitat and may be used to fulfil incomplete criteria used in the identification of Threatened Terrestrial Ecosystems, and to report on the Convention on Biological Diversity targets on rates of natural habitat loss.

Brachystegia spiciformis Benth. is the dominant component of miombo, the sub-tropical woodlands which cover 2.7 million km2 of south-central Africa and which is coincident with the largest regional centre of endemism in Africa. However, pollen records from the genus Brachystegia suggest that miombo has experienced rapid range retraction (∼450 km) from its southernmost distributional limit over the past 6000 years. This abrupt biological response created an isolated (by ∼200 km) and incomparable relict at the trailing population edge in northeast South Africa. These changes in miombo population dynamics may have been triggered by minor natural shifts in temperature and moisture regimes. If so, B. spiciformis is likely to be especially responsive to present and future anthropogenic climate change. This rare situation offers a unique opportunity to investigate climatic determinants of range shift at the trailing edge of a savanna species. A niche modelling approach was used to produce present-day and select future B. spiciformis woodland ecological niche models. In keeping with recent historical range shifts, further ecological niche retraction of between 30.6% and 47.3% of the continuous miombo woodland in Zimbabwe and southern Mozambique is predicted by 2050. Persistence of the existing relict under future climate change is plausible, but range expansion to fragmented refugia in northeast South Africa is unlikely. As Brachystegia woodland and associated biota form crucial socio-economic and biodiversity components of savannas in southern Africa, their predicted further range retraction is of concern.

To examine the impacts of climate change on endemic birds, which are of global significance for conservation, on a continent with few such assessments. We specifically assess projected range changes in relation to the Important Bird Areas (IBAs) network and assess the possible consequences for conservation. South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland. The newly emerging ensemble modelling approach is used with 50 species, four climate change models for the period 2070-2100 and eight bioclimatic niche models in the statistical package biomod. Model evaluation is done using the receiver operating characteristic and the recently introduced true skill statistic. Future projections are made considering two extreme assumptions: species have full dispersal ability and species have no dispersal ability. A consensus forecast is identified using principal components analysis. This forecast is interpreted in terms of the IBA network. An irreplaceability analysis is used to highlight priority IBAs for conservation attention in terms of climate change. The majority of species (62%) are predicted to lose climatically suitable space. Five species lose at least 85% of their climatically suitable space. Many IBAs lose species (41%; 47 IBAs) and show high rates of species turnover of more than 50% (77%; 95 IBAs). Highly irreplaceable regions for endemic species become highly localized under climate change, meaning that the endemic species analysed here experience similar range contractions to maintain climate niches. The South African IBAs network is likely to become less effective for conserving endemic birds under climate change. The irreplaceability analysis identified key refugia for endemic species under climate change, but many of these areas are not currently IBAs. In addition, many of these high-priority areas that are IBAs fall outside the current formal protected areas network.

Southern Africa is expected to experience increased frequency and intensity of droughts through climate change, which will adversely affect mammalian herbivores. Using bio-loggers, we tested the expectation that wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus), a grazer with high water-dependence, would be more sensitive to drought conditions than the arid-adapted gemsbok (Oryx gazella gazella). The study, conducted in the Kalahari, encompassed two hot-dry seasons with similar ambient temperatures but differing rainfall patterns during the preceding wet season. In the drier year both ungulates selected similar cooler microclimates, but wildebeest travelled larger distances than gemsbok, presumably in search of water. Body temperatures in both species reached lower daily minimums and higher daily maximums in the drier season but daily fluctuations were wider in wildebeest than in gemsbok. Lower daily minimum body temperatures displayed by wildebeest suggest that wildebeest were under greater nutritional stress than gemsbok. Moving large distances when water is scarce may have compromised the energy balance of the water dependent wildebeest, a trade-off likely to be exacerbated with future climate change.

Land-based income streams, which include the consumption and selling of crops, livestock and environmental products, are inherent in rural households’ livelihoods. However, the off-farm cash income stream – primarily composed of migrant labour remittances, social grants, and savings and loans – is increasing in importance in many regions. This case study of 590 households from Bushbuckridge, South Africa, analyses the economic value of each of these income streams at three points: what enters the household, what is used and what is sold. Two important findings emerge. First, dependence on off-farm cash incomes is far higher than previously suggested by case studies in the area and the benefits of employment accrue to those already better educated and wealthier. This suggests that shifts in off-farm opportunities will exacerbate already deep inequalities. Second, while environmental products and crops are important for direct use, they generate insignificant cash incomes from sales. This suggests a weakening of the direct links between the local ecosystem and this society, challenging traditional notions of African rurality being intrinsically land based. Significance : Off-farm incomes such as wage labour, remittances and social grants are almost the sole source of cash for households in the study area. Even when including non-monetary incomes such as harvested produce, foraged goods and livestock products, off-farm incomes still represent the overwhelmingly largest proportion of overall household income value. This highlights the fact that South African rural economies are not consistently or primarily land based, and indicates the necessity of rural development strategies that facilitate participation in local cash economies. Otherwise, such efforts will be unable to yield broad benefits and will, instead, simply enrich those who are already better off.

Documenting current species distribution patterns and their association with habitat types is important as a basis for assessing future range shifts in response to climate change or other influences. We used the adaptive local convex hull (a-LoCoH) method to map distribution ranges of 12 ungulate species within the Kruger National Park (KNP) based on locations recorded during aerial surveys (1980â??1993). We used log-linear models to identify changes in regional distribution patterns and chi-square tests to determine shifts in habitat occupation over this period. We compared observed patterns with earlier, more subjectively derived distribution maps for these species. Zebra, wildebeest and giraffe distributions shifted towards the far northern section of the KNP, whilst buffalo and kudu showed proportional declines in the north. Sable antelope distribution contracted most in the north, whilst tsessebe, eland and roan antelope distributions showed no shifts. Warthog and waterbuck contracted in the central and northern regions, respectively. The distribution of impala did not change. Compared with earlier distributions, impala, zebra, buffalo, warthog and waterbuck had become less strongly concentrated along rivers. Wildebeest, zebra, sable antelope and tsessebe had become less prevalent in localities west of the central region. Concerning habitatoccupation, the majority of grazers showed a concentration on basaltic substrates, whilst sable antelope favoured mopane-dominated woodland and sour bushveld on granite. Buffalo showed no strong preference for any habitats and waterbuck were concentrated along rivers. Although widespread, impala were absent from sections of mopane shrubveld and sandveld. Kudu and giraffe were widespread through most habitats, but with a lesser prevalence in northern mopane-dominated habitats. Documented distribution shifts appeared to be related to the completion of the western boundary fence and widened provision of surface water within the park. Conservation implications: The objectively recorded distribution patterns provide a foundation for assessing future changes in distribution that may take place in response to climatic shifts or other influences.

The aim of this study was to investigate the overall root/shoot allocation of metal contaminants, the amount of metal removal by absorption and adsorption within or on the external root surfaces, the dose-response of water hyacinth metal uptake, and phytotoxicity. This was examined in a single-metal tub trial, using arsenic (As), gold (Au), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), mercury (Hg), manganese (Mn), uranium (U), and zinc (Zn). Iron and Mn were also used in low-, medium-, and high-concentration treatments to test their dose effect on water hyacinth’s metal uptake. Water hyacinth was generally tolerant to metallotoxicity, except for Cu and Hg. Over 80 % of the total amount of metals removed was accumulated in the roots, of which 30–52 % was adsorbed onto the root surfaces. Furthermore, 73–98 % of the total metal assimilation by water hyacinth was located in the roots. The bioconcentration factor (BCF) of Cu, Hg, Au, and Zn exceeded the recommended index of 1000, which is used in selection of phytoremediating plants, but those of U, As, and Mn did not. Nevertheless, the BCF for Mn increased with the increase of Mn concentration in water. This suggests that the use of BCF index alone, without the consideration of plant biomass and metal concentration in water, is inadequate to determine the potential of plants for phytoremediation accurately. Thus, this study confirms that water hyacinth holds potential for a broad spectrum of phytoremediation roles. However, knowing whether these metals are adsorbed on or assimilated within the plant tissues as well as knowing their allocation between roots and shoots will inform decisions how to re-treat biomass for metal recovery, or the mode of biomass reduction for safe disposal after phytoremediation.

QUESTIONS: Early bioclimatic models predict that climate change in southern African savannas will cause a huge southward and westward range shift of the savanna tree Colophospermum mopane (Kirk ex Benth.) Kirk ex J.Léon. C. mopane is an economically and ecologically important subtropical savanna tree that forms mono‐dominant stands across 30% of southern African savannas. We investigate the validity of these initial range expansion predictions to answer the following questions: what are the regional‐scale drivers of the distribution of C. mopane in southern African savannas; and what are the landscape‐scale distribution patterns of this species? LOCATION: Central Lowveld, Kruger National Park, South Africa. METHODS: We investigate the validity of very early range expansion modelling predictions using a regional‐scale, climate envelope niche model, and fine‐scale field mapping of the current boundary, to understand which environmental variables may determine the distribution limit of this signature species. RESULTS: Our findings indicate that both non‐climatic (dry season day length) and climatic (minimum temperatures) variables limit the regional distribution of C. mopane. At the landscape scale, the distribution of this species is restricted to the warmer parts of the landscape, suggesting minimum temperature appears to be the primary factor determining its landscape‐scale distribution. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first detailed model of environmental factors that may limit the regional distribution of C. mopane, and allows us to formulate testable hypotheses regarding the determinants of the range of a keystone species.

Fuelwood is the dominant source of energy used by most rural households in southern Africa to meet daily domestic energy requirements. Due to limited financial resources, most rural households are unable to make the transition to electricity thus they remain dependant on the woodlands surrounding their settlements as a source of cheap energy. Unsustainable fuelwood harvesting due to increasing demand as a result of growing human populations may result in environmental degradation particularly in the high-density, communal savannah woodlands of South Africa. Evaluating the sustainability of current fuelwood harvesting patterns requires an understanding of the environmental impacts of past logging practices to establish patterns of woodland degradation. This study evaluates impacts of fuelwood harvesting from 1992–2009 on the woodland structure and species composition surrounding two rural villages located within the Kruger to Canyons Biosphere Reserve (Mpumalanga Province, South Africa). Both villages (Welverdiend and Athol) were of similar spatial extent and exhibited similar socioeconomic characteristics. The total wood stock in the communal woodlands of both villages declined overall (with greater losses seen in Welverdiend) and, in Welverdiend, there were also changes in the woodland structure and species diversity of the species commonly harvested for fuelwood over this period. The woodlands in Welverdiend have become degraded and no longer produce fuelwood of preferred species and stem size in sufficient quantity or quality. The absence of similar negative impacts in Athol suggests more sustainable harvesting regimes exist there because of the lower human population and lower fuelwood extraction pressure. The Welverdiend community has annexed neighbouring unoccupied private land in a social response to fuelwood scarcity. Athol residents behaved similarly during drought periods. The potential for future conflict with neighbouring conservation areas within the Kruger to Canyons Biosphere is high if current land uses and fuelwood extraction patterns are maintained.

As multi-use conservation landscapes, biosphere reserves (BRs) exemplify the landscape mosaic approach to environmental decision-making. In this study, time-series remotely-sensed data (1993–2006–2012) were used to monitor vegetation transformation in the Kruger to Canyons Biosphere Reserve (K2C) of South Africa, updating previous land-cover research. We identified changes in spatial extent, rate and intensity of land-cover change and extrapolated observed trends to 2018. The increased rate of change in the recent observation period (2.3 vs. 5.7%) was driven by more intensive gains in impacted vegetation and settlement since 2006 (>210 km² and >120 km²), with resultant transformation of intact habitat undermining regional connectivity. By 2012, intact vegetation had suffered losses of 6.3% (>350 km²) since 2006 and >14% (>750 km²) since 1993. A further 9.5% loss of intact habitat may represent a critical threshold, establishing K2C above the 50% threshold of landscape transformation, whereafter a rapid decline in landscape resilience is likely. Given the BR's spatial zonation, such a loss across the full extent of K2C is unlikely, at least in the short-term (i.e., by 2018). Yet, based on past trends of transformation in the unprotected transition zone, anticipating such losses in the longer term, is not unfounded (i.e., 2024).