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26 result(s) for "Ethé, Christian"
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IPSL-CM5A2 – an Earth system model designed for multi-millennial climate simulations
Based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)-generation previous Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) Earth system model, we designed a new version, IPSL-CM5A2, aiming at running multi-millennial simulations typical of deep-time paleoclimate studies. Three priorities were followed during the setup of the model: (1) improving the overall model computing performance, (2) overcoming a persistent cold bias depicted in the previous model generation and (3) making the model able to handle the specific continental configurations of the geological past. These developments include the integration of hybrid parallelization Message Passing Interface – Open Multi-Processing (MPI-OpenMP) in the atmospheric model of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMDZ), the use of a new library to perform parallel asynchronous input/output by using computing cores as “I/O servers” and the use of a parallel coupling library between the ocean and the atmospheric components. The model, which runs with an atmospheric resolution of 3.75∘×1.875∘ and 2 to 0.5∘ in the ocean, can now simulate ∼100 years per day, opening new possibilities towards the production of multi-millennial simulations with a full Earth system model. The tuning strategy employed to overcome a persistent cold bias is detailed. The confrontation of a historical simulation to climatological observations shows overall improved ocean meridional overturning circulation, marine productivity and latitudinal position of zonal wind patterns. We also present the numerous steps required to run IPSL-CM5A2 for deep-time paleoclimates through a preliminary case study for the Cretaceous. Namely, specific work on the ocean model grid was required to run the model for specific continental configurations in which continents are relocated according to past paleogeographic reconstructions. By briefly discussing the spin-up of such a simulation, we elaborate on the requirements and challenges awaiting paleoclimate modeling in the next years, namely finding the best trade-off between the level of description of the processes and the computing cost on supercomputers.
The Tuning Strategy of IPSL‐CM6A‐LR
The assessment of current and future risks for natural and human systems associated with climate change largely relies on numerical simulations performed with state‐of‐the‐art climate models. Various steps are involved in the development of such models, from development of individual components of the climate system up to free parameter calibration of the fully coupled model. Here, we describe the final tuning phase for the IPSL‐CM6A‐LR climate model. This phase alone lasted more than 3 years and relied on several pillars: (i) the tuning against present‐day conditions given a small adjustment of the ocean surface albedo to compensate for the current oceanic heat uptake, (ii) the release of successive versions after adjustments of the individual components, implying a systematic and recurrent adjustment of the atmospheric energetics, and (iii) the use of a few metrics based on large scale variables such as near‐global mean temperature, summer Arctic sea‐ice extent, as targets for the tuning. Successes, lessons and prospects of this tuning strategy are discussed. Plain Language Summary Evaluating current and future risks for natural and human systems associated with climate change is largely based on numerical simulations performed with models of the climate system, which includes the atmosphere, the land, the ocean, the cryosphere, and the oceanic and terrestrial biosphere. Various steps are involved in the development of such models. First, models for individual components are developed and tested. Second, many aspects are represented with parameterizations that summarize the effect of a missing process, such as those happening on scales that are smaller than the model grid sizes. The parameterizations in turn involve many parameters, sometimes poorly estimated from observations, that have to be calibrated. Here, we describe the final tuning phase of the IPSL‐CM6A‐LR climate model, which includes several novel aspects: first, the choice to calibrate the model against present‐day observations, which implies taking into account the transient nature of the observed climate; second, the systematic and recurrent adjustment of the atmospheric radiative budget; third, the use of a few large scale observable variables as targets. Successes, lessons and prospects of this tuning strategy are discussed. Key Points The tuning process of IPSL‐CM6A‐LR under present‐day control conditions is described The associated continuous atmospheric energetics adjustment is presented Successes, lessons and prospects of the IPSL‐CM6A‐LR tuning strategy are discussed
Model constraints on the anthropogenic carbon budget of the Arctic Ocean
The Arctic Ocean is projected to experience not only amplified climate change but also amplified ocean acidification. Modeling future acidification depends on our ability to simulate baseline conditions and changes over the industrial era. Such centennial-scale changes require a global model to account for exchange between the Arctic and surrounding regions. Yet the coarse resolution of typical global models may poorly resolve that exchange as well as critical features of Arctic Ocean circulation. Here we assess how simulations of Arctic Ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon (Cant), the main driver of open-ocean acidification, differ when moving from coarse to eddy-admitting resolution in a global ocean-circulation–biogeochemistry model (Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean, NEMO; Pelagic Interactions Scheme for Carbon and Ecosystem Studies, PISCES). The Arctic's regional storage of Cant is enhanced as model resolution increases. While the coarse-resolution model configuration ORCA2 (2∘) stores 2.0 Pg C in the Arctic Ocean between 1765 and 2005, the eddy-admitting versions ORCA05 and ORCA025 (1∕2∘ and 1∕4∘) store 2.4 and 2.6 Pg C. The difference in inventory between model resolutions that is accounted for is only from their divergence after 1958, when ORCA2 and ORCA025 were initialized with output from the intermediate-resolution configuration (ORCA05). The difference would have been larger had all model resolutions been initialized in 1765 as was ORCA05. The ORCA025 Arctic Cant storage estimate of 2.6 Pg C should be considered a lower limit because that model generally underestimates observed CFC-12 concentrations. It reinforces the lower limit from a previous data-based approach (2.5 to 3.3 Pg C). Independent of model resolution, there was roughly 3 times as much Cant that entered the Arctic Ocean through lateral transport than via the flux of CO2 across the air–sea interface. Wider comparison to nine earth system models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) reveals much larger diversity of stored Cant and lateral transport. Only the CMIP5 models with higher lateral transport obtain Cant inventories that are close to the data-based estimates. Increasing resolution also enhances acidification, e.g., with greater shoaling of the Arctic's average depth of the aragonite saturation horizon during 1960–2012, from 50 m in ORCA2 to 210 m in ORCA025. Even higher model resolution would likely further improve such estimates, but its prohibitive costs also call for other more practical avenues for improvement, e.g., through model nesting, addition of coastal processes, and refinement of subgrid-scale parameterizations.
Diazotrophy as a key driver of the response of marine net primary productivity to climate change
The impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine net primary production (NPP) is a reason for concern because changing NPP will have widespread consequences for marine ecosystems and their associated services. Projections by the current generation of Earth system models have suggested decreases in global NPP in response to future climate change, albeit with very large uncertainties. Here, we make use of two versions of the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Climate Model (IPSL-CM) that simulate divergent NPP responses to similar high-emission scenarios in the 21st century and identify nitrogen fixation as the main driver of these divergent NPP responses. Differences in the way N fixation is parameterised in the marine biogeochemical component PISCES (Pelagic Interactions Scheme for Carbon and Ecosystem Studies) of the IPSL-CM versions lead to N-fixation rates that are either stable or double over the course of the 21st century, resulting in decreasing or increasing global NPP, respectively. An evaluation of these two model versions does not help constrain future NPP projection uncertainties. However, the use of a more comprehensive version of PISCES, with variable nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratios as well as a revised parameterisation of the temperature sensitivity of N fixation, suggests only moderate changes in globally averaged N fixation in the 21st century. This leads to decreasing global NPP, in line with the model-mean changes of a recent multi-model intercomparison. Lastly, despite contrasting trends in NPP, all our model versions simulate similar and significant reductions in planktonic biomass. This suggests that projected plankton biomass may be a more robust indicator than NPP of the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems across models.
Coastal-ocean uptake of anthropogenic carbon
Anthropogenic changes in atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land CO2 fluxes have been quantified extensively, but few studies have addressed the connection between land and ocean. In this transition zone, the coastal ocean, spatial and temporal data coverage is inadequate to assess its global budget. Thus we use a global ocean biogeochemical model to assess the coastal ocean's global inventory of anthropogenic CO2 and its spatial variability. We used an intermediate resolution, eddying version of the NEMO-PISCES model (ORCA05), varying from 20 to 50 km horizontally, i.e. coarse enough to allow multiple century-scale simulations but finer than coarse-resolution models (∼  200 km) to better resolve coastal bathymetry and complex coastal currents. Here we define the coastal zone as the continental shelf area, excluding the proximal zone. Evaluation of the simulated air–sea fluxes of total CO2 for 45 coastal regions gave a correlation coefficient R of 0.8 when compared to observation-based estimates. Simulated global uptake of anthropogenic carbon results averaged 2.3 Pg C yr−1 during the years 1993–2012, consistent with previous estimates. Yet only 0.1 Pg C yr−1 of that is absorbed by the global coastal ocean. That represents 4.5 % of the anthropogenic carbon uptake of the global ocean, less than the 7.5 % proportion of coastal-to-global-ocean surface areas. Coastal uptake is weakened due to a bottleneck in offshore transport, which is inadequate to reduce the mean anthropogenic carbon concentration of coastal waters to the mean level found in the open-ocean mixed layer.
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole events prevent anoxia off the west coast of India
The seasonal upwelling along the west coast of India (WCI) brings nutrient-rich, oxygen-poor subsurface waters to the continental shelf, favoring very low oxygen concentrations in the surface waters during late boreal summer and fall. This yearly-recurring coastal hypoxia is more severe during some years, leading to coastal anoxia that has strong impacts on the living resources. In the present study, we analyze a 1/4° resolution coupled physical–biogeochemical regional oceanic simulation over the 1960–2012 period to investigate the physical processes influencing the oxycline interannual variability off the WCI, that being a proxy for the variability on the shelf in our model. Our analysis indicates a tight relationship between the oxycline and thermocline variations in this region on both seasonal and interannual timescales, thereby revealing a strong physical control of the oxycline variability. As in observations, our model exhibits a shallow oxycline and thermocline during fall that combines with interannual variations to create a window of opportunity for coastal anoxic events. We further demonstrate that the boreal fall oxycline fluctuations off the WCI are strongly related to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), with an asymmetric influence of its positive and negative phases. Positive IODs are associated with easterly wind anomalies near the southern tip of India. These winds force downwelling coastal Kelvin waves that propagate along the WCI and deepen the thermocline and oxycline there, thus preventing the occurrence of coastal anoxia. On the other hand, negative IODs are associated with WCI thermocline and oxycline anomalies of opposite sign but of smaller amplitude, so that the negative or neutral IOD phases are necessary but not the sufficient condition for coastal anoxia. As the IODs generally start developing in summer, these findings suggest some predictability to the occurrence of coastal anoxia off the WCI a couple of months ahead.
Why Do Oceanic Nonlinearities Contribute Only Weakly to Extreme El Niño Events?
Extreme El Niño events have outsized global impacts and control the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm/cold phases asymmetries. Yet, a consensus regarding the relative contributions of atmospheric and oceanic nonlinearities to their genesis remains elusive. Here, we isolate the contribution of oceanic nonlinearities by conducting paired experiments forced with opposite wind stress anomalies in an oceanic general circulation model, which realistically simulates extreme El Niño events and oceanic nonlinearities thought to contribute to ENSO skewness (Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs), Nonlinear Dynamical Heating (NDH)). Our findings indicate a weak contribution of oceanic nonlinearities to extreme El Niño events in the eastern Pacific, owing to compensatory effects between lateral (NDH and TIWs) and vertical processes. These results hold across different vertical mixing schemes and modifications of the upper‐ocean heat budget mixed layer criterion. Our study reinforces previous research underscoring the pivotal role of atmospheric nonlinearities in shaping extreme El Niño events. Plain Language Summary The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary driver of year‐to‐year climate variations in the tropics and beyond. Originating from air‐sea interactions in the tropical Pacific, ENSO oscillates between warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases, modulating sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Occasionally, El Niño events intensify into “super” El Niño events, causing widespread impacts globally. Utilizing a state‐of‐the‐art oceanic model, our research challenges previous results suggesting a strong oceanic contribution to the amplitude difference between “normal” and “super” El Niño events. Instead, our findings reveal that potential oceanic influences on “super” El Niño events tend to offset each other. This is consistent with recent research highlighting the crucial role of atmospheric processes in the transformation from a “normal” to a “super” El Niño. Key Points A state‐of‐the‐art ocean model reproduces extreme El Niño events and the corresponding nonlinear oceanic processes realistically Contributions from oceanic nonlinearities are isolated using paired simulations forced by opposite wind stress anomalies Effects of oceanic nonlinearities on extreme El Niño events are small, due to compensation between lateral and vertical processes
Evaluation of an Online Grid‐Coarsening Algorithm in a Global Eddy‐Admitting Ocean Biogeochemical Model
In order to explore the effects of mesoscale eddies on marine biogeochemistry over climate timescales, global ocean biogeochemical general circulation models (OBGCMs) need at least to be run at a horizontal resolution of a 0.25°, the minimal resolution admitting eddies. However, their use is currently limited because of a prohibitive computational cost and storage requirements. To overcome this problem, an online coarsening algorithm is evaluated in the oceanic component (NEMO‐GELATO‐PISCES) of CNRM‐ESM2‐1. This algorithm allows to compute biogeochemical processes at a coarse resolution (0.75°) while inheriting most of the dynamical characteristics of the eddy‐admitting OBGCM (0.25°). Through the coarse‐graining process, the effective resolution of the ocean dynamics seen by the biogeochemical model is higher than that which would be obtained from an OBGCM run at 0.75°. In this context, we assess how much the increase from low (1°) to coarse‐grained horizontal resolution impacts the ocean dynamics and the marine biogeochemistry over long‐term climate simulations. The online coarsening reduces the computational cost by 60% with respect to that of the eddy‐admitting OBGCM. In addition, it improves the representation of chlorophyll, nutrients, oxygen, and sea‐air carbon fluxes over more than half of the open ocean area compared to the 1° OBGCM. Most importantly, the coarse‐grained OBGCM captures the physical‐biogeochemical coupling between sea‐air carbon fluxes and sea surface height and between oxygen minimum zone boundaries and eddies, as produced by the eddy‐admitting OBGCM. Such a cost‐efficient coarsening algorithm offers a good trade‐off to conduct process‐based studies over centennial timescales at higher resolution. Key Points The eddy‐admitting (0.25°) model replicates observed physical‐biogeochemical coupling, whereas the 1° horizontal resolution model does not The computation cost of the eddy‐admitting model is divided by 2.7 when using a coarse‐grained grid for marine biogeochemistry The coarse‐grained solution inherits the key features of the 0.25° solution, including the physical‐biogeochemical coupling
A NEMO-based model of Sargassum distribution in the tropical Atlantic: description of the model and sensitivity analysis (NEMO-Sarg1.0)
The tropical Atlantic has been facing a massive proliferation of Sargassum since 2011, with severe environmental and socioeconomic impacts. The development of large-scale modeling of Sargassum transport and physiology is essential to clarify the link between Sargassum distribution and environmental conditions, and to lay the groundwork for a seasonal forecast at the scale of the tropical Atlantic basin. We developed a modeling framework based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean model, which integrates transport by currents and waves, and physiology of Sargassum with varying internal nutrients quota, and considers stranding at the coast. The model is initialized from basin-scale satellite observations, and performance was assessed over the year 2017. Model parameters are calibrated through the analysis of a large ensemble of simulations, and the sensitivity to forcing fields like riverine nutrient inputs, atmospheric deposition, and waves is discussed. Overall, results demonstrate the ability of the model to reproduce and forecast the seasonal cycle and large-scale distribution ofSargassum biomass.
Implementation of the CMIP6 Forcing Data in the IPSL‐CM6A‐LR Model
The implementation of boundary conditions is a key aspect of climate simulations. We describe here how the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) forcing data sets have been processed and implemented in Version 6 of the Institut Pierre‐Simon Laplace (IPSL) climate model (IPSL‐CM6A‐LR) as used for CMIP6. Details peculiar to some of the Model Intercomparison Projects are also described. IPSL‐CM6A‐LR is run without interactive chemistry; thus, tropospheric and stratospheric aerosols as well as ozone have to be prescribed. We improved the aerosol interpolation procedure and highlight a new methodology to adjust the ozone vertical profile in a way that is consistent with the model dynamical state at the time step level. The corresponding instantaneous and effective radiative forcings have been estimated and are being presented where possible. Plain Language Summary Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 is an international project to compare the results from climate model simulations performed according to a common protocol. Such simulations require boundary conditions (called “climate forcings”), which are fed to the models in order to represent, for example, long‐lived greenhouse gases, ozone, atmospheric aerosols, or land surface properties. The same forcing data sets are used by the different modeling groups who carry out the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations; however, their implementation may differ as it depends on the model structure. This article gives details of how these forcing data were implemented in the IPSL‐CM6A‐LR model. Some of the forcing data are common to all types all simulations, whereas others depend on the runs considered. Radiative forcings, as estimated in the model, are presented for some of the forcing mechanisms. Key Points We present how the CMIP6 forcing data were implemented in the IPSL‐CM6A‐LR climate model for the realization of the CMIP6 set of climate simulations An improved conservative interpolation procedure for emissions is detailed and illustrated to compute tropospheric aerosols We present a new methodology to adjust the prescribed ozone vertical profile to match the model atmospheric dynamical state around the tropopause