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CONTENTS: Summary 752 I. Introduction 752 II. Will migration be enough? 753 III. Can adaptation proceed fast enough? 754 IV. Fitness links demographic and evolutionary processes 755 V. Experimental studies: what do they tell us and how can we improve them? 756 VI. Predicting evolutionary change based on genetic variation and natural selection 757 VII. The chronosequence approach 758 VIII. Resurrection of ancestral propagules 759 IX. The mean and variance in fitness, a link between genetics and demography 760 X. Conclusions 762 Acknowledgements 762 References 762 SUMMARY: Evolution proceeds unceasingly in all biological populations. It is clear that climate‐driven evolution has molded plants in deep time and within extant populations. However, it is less certain whether adaptive evolution can proceed sufficiently rapidly to maintain the fitness and demographic stability of populations subjected to exceptionally rapid contemporary climate change. Here, we consider this question, drawing on current evidence on the rate of plant range shifts and the potential for an adaptive evolutionary response. We emphasize advances in understanding based on theoretical studies that model interacting evolutionary processes, and we provide an overview of quantitative genetic approaches that can parameterize these models to provide more meaningful predictions of the dynamic interplay between genetics, demography and evolution. We outline further research that can clarify both the adaptive potential of plant populations as climate continues to change and the role played by ongoing adaptation in their persistence.

Boreal forests are experiencing dramatic climate change, having warmed 1.0°– 1.9°C over the last century. Yet forest regeneration practices are often still dictated by a fixed seed zone framework, in which seeds are both harvested from and planted into predefined areas. Our goal was to determine whether seedlings sourced from southern seed zones in Minnesota USA are already better adapted to northerly seed zones because of climate change. Bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa) and northern red oak (Quercus rubra) seedlings from two seed zones (i.e., tree ecotypes) were planted into 16 sites in two northern seed zones and measured for 3 yr. Our hypotheses were threefold: (1) tree species with more southern geographic distributions would thrive in northern forests where climate has already warmed substantially, (2) southern ecotypes of these species would have higher survival and growth than the northern ecotype in northern environments, and (3) natural selection would favor seedlings that expressed phenotypic and phenological traits characteristic of trees sourced from the more southern seed zone. For both species, survival was high (>93%), and southern ecotypes expressed traits consistent with our climate adaptation hypotheses. Ecotypic differences were especially evident for red oak; the southern ecotype had had higher survival, lower specific leaf area (SLA), faster height and diameter growth, and extended leaf phenology relative to the northern ecotype. Bur oak results were weaker, but the southern ecotype also had earlier budburst and lower SLA than the northern ecotype. Models based on the fixed seed zones failed to explain seedling performance as well as those with continuous predictors (e.g., climate and geographical position), suggesting that plant adaptations within current seed zone delineations do align with changing climate conditions. Adding support for this conclusion, natural selection favored traits expressed by the more southern tree ecotypes. Collectively, these results suggest that state seed sourcing guidelines should be reexamined to permit plantings across seed zones, a form of assisted migration. More extensive experiments (i.e., provenance trails) are necessary to make species-specific seed transfer guidelines that account for climate trends while also considering the precise geographic origin of seed sources.

Plants exhibit adaptive responses to light, but it is not known whether parental plants transmit environmental cues that elicit adaptive responses in offspring. We show that offspring life history (annual versus biennial) is influenced by the maternal light environment (understory versus light gap). This transgenerational plasticity is adaptive when offspring are grown in their maternal light environment, where seeds typically disperse. Projections of population growth show that plants that are appropriately cued for their light environment through maternal effects have 3.4 times greater fitness than otherwise. Transgenerational plasticity has evolved in response to natural variation in light and provides a flexible mechanism by which sedentary organisms cope with heterogeneous environments.

We characterized the genetic architecture of three populations of a native North American prairie plant in field conditions that simulate the warmer and more arid climates predicted by global climate models. Despite genetic variance for traits under selection, among-trait genetic correlations that are antagonistic to the direction of selection limit adaptive evolution within these populations. Predicted rates of evolutionary response are much slower than the predicted rate of climate change.

The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing, but current methods for forecasting have limitations. In this article, we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually, (2) niche-theory models that group species by habitat (more specifically, by environmental conditions under which a species can persist or does persist), (3) general circulation models and coupled ocean–atmosphere–biosphere models, and (4) species–area curve models that consider all species or large aggregates of species. After outlining the different uses and limitations of these methods, we make eight primary suggestions for improving forecasts. We find that greater use of the fossil record and of modern genetic studies would improve forecasting methods. We note a Quaternary conundrum: While current empirical and theoretical ecological results suggest that many species could be at risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages surprisingly few species became extinct. The potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable forecasting. Our eight suggestions also point to constructive synergies in the solution to the different problems.

Managed relocation (MR) has rapidly emerged as a potential intervention strategy in the toolbox of biodiversity management under climate change. Previous authors have suggested that MR (also referred to as assisted colonization, assisted migration, or assisted translocation) could be a last-alternative option after interrogating a linear decision tree. We argue that numerous interacting and value-laden considerations demand a more inclusive strategy for evaluating MR. The pace of modern climate change demands decision making with imperfect information, and tools that elucidate this uncertainty and integrate scientific information and social values are urgently needed. We present a heuristic tool that incorporates both ecological and social criteria in a multidimensional decision-making framework. For visualization purposes, we collapse these criteria into 4 classes that can be depicted in graphical 2-D space. This framework offers a pragmatic approach for summarizing key dimensions of MR: capturing uncertainty in the evaluation criteria, creating transparency in the evaluation process, and recognizing the inherent tradeoffs that different stakeholders bring to evaluation of MR and its alternatives.

The lifetime fitnesses of individuals comprising a population determine its numerical dynamics, and genetic variation in fitness results in evolutionary change. This dual importance of individual fitness is well understood, but empirical fitness records generally violate the assumptions of standard statistical approaches. This problem has undermined comprehensive study of fitness and impeded empirical synthesis of the numerical and genetic dynamics of populations. Recently developed aster models remedy this problem by explicitly modeling the dependence of later‐expressed components of fitness (e.g., fecundity) on those expressed earlier (e.g., survival to reproduce). Moreover, aster models employ different sampling distributions for different components of fitness (e.g., binomial for survival over a given interval and Poisson for fecundity). Analysis is done by maximum likelihood, and the resulting distributions for lifetime fitness closely approximate observed data. We illustrate the breadth of aster models' utility with three examples demonstrating estimation of the finite rate of increase, comparison of mean fitness among genotypic groups, and analysis of phenotypic selection. Aster models offer a unified approach to addressing the breadth of questions in evolution and ecology for which life‐history data are gathered.

Widely distributed species are normally subjected to spatial heterogeneity in environmental conditions. In sessile organisms like plants, adaptive evolution and phenotypic plasticity of key functional traits are the main mechanisms through which species can respond to environmental heterogeneity and climate change. While extended research has been carried out in temperate species in this regard, there is still limited knowledge as to how species from seasonally-dry tropical climates respond to spatial and temporal variation in environmental conditions. In fact, studies of intraspecific genetically-based differences in functional traits are still largely unknown and studies in these ecosystems have largely focused on comparisons where environmental and genetic effects cannot be differentiated. In this study, we tested for ecotypic differentiation and phenotypic plasticity in leaf economics spectrum (LES) traits, water use efficiency and growth rates under natural and manipulated precipitation regimes in a common garden experiment where seedlings of eight populations of the neotropical live oak were established. We also examined the extent to which intraspecific trait variation was associated with plant performance under different water availability. Similar to interspecific patterns among seasonally-dry tropical tree species, live oak populations with long and severe dry seasons had higher leaf nitrogen content and growth rates than mesic populations, which is consistent with a \"fast\" resource-acquisition strategy aimed to maximize carbon uptake during the wet season. Specific leaf area (SLA) was the best predictor of plant performance, but contrary to expectations, it was negatively associated with relative and absolute growth rates. This observation was partially explained by the negative association between SLA and area-based photosynthetic rates, which is contrary to LES expectations but similar to other recent intraspecific studies on evergreen oaks. Overall, our study shows strong intraspecific differences in functional traits in a tropical oak, , and suggests that precipitation regime has played an important role in driving adaptive divergence in this widespread species.

Plants exhibit plasticity in response to their current environment and, in some cases, to that of the previous generation (i.e. maternal effects). However, few studies have evaluated both within- and between-generation plasticities and the extent to which they interact to influence fitness, especially in natural environments. The plasticity of adult traits to two generations of natural differences in light was determined for Campanulastrum americanum, a forest-edge herb that expresses annual and biennial life histories. Plasticity was found to an individual's light environment (within generation) and the maternal light environment (between generations). Responses to ambient light for size traits and timing of flowering were probably passive, whereas apparently adaptive responses were found for light acquisition traits. Maternal light influenced the expression of most adult traits but had the strongest effect when plants were germinated in natural environments. The transgenerational effects of light were consistent with adaptive plasticity for several traits. Plastic within-generation changes in flowering time may also result in adaptive between-generation effects by altering the offspring life history schedule. Finally, the results underscore the importance of conducting studies of within- and between-generation plasticity in natural populations, where the environmental context is relevant to that in which the traits evolved.

In an age of rapid global change, it is imperative that we continue to improve our understanding of factors that govern genetic differentiation in plants to inform biologically reasonable predictions for the future and enlighten conservation and restoration practices. In this special issue, we have assembled a set of original research and reviews that employ diverse approaches, both classic and contemporary, to illuminate patterns of phenotypic and genetic variation, probe the underlying evolutionary processes that have contributed to these patterns, build predictive models, and test evolutionary hypotheses. Our goal was to underscore the unique insights that can be obtained through the complementary and distinct studies of plant populations across species' geographic ranges.