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We developed a simple tool to estimate the probability of dying from acute COVID-19 illness only with readily available assessments at initial admission. This retrospective study included 13,190 racially and ethnically diverse adults admitted to one of the New York City Health + Hospitals (NYC H+H) system for COVID-19 illness between March 1 and June 30, 2020. Demographic characteristics, simple vital signs and routine clinical laboratory tests were collected from the electronic medical records. A clinical prediction model to estimate the risk of dying during the hospitalization were developed. Mean age (interquartile range) was 58 (45-72) years; 5421 (41%) were women, 5258 were Latinx (40%), 3805 Black (29%), 1168 White (9%), and 2959 Other (22%). During hospitalization, 2,875 were (22%) died. Using separate test and validation samples, machine learning (Gradient Boosted Decision Trees) identified eight variables-oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, systolic and diastolic blood pressures, pulse rate, blood urea nitrogen level, age and creatinine-that predicted mortality, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 94%. A score based on these variables classified 5,677 (46%) as low risk (a score of 0) who had 0.8% (95% confidence interval, 0.5-1.0%) risk of dying, and 674 (5.4%) as high-risk (score ≥ 12 points) who had a 97.6% (96.5-98.8%) risk of dying; the remainder had intermediate risks. A risk calculator is available online at https://danielevanslab.shinyapps.io/Covid_mortality/. In a diverse population of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 illness, a clinical prediction model using a few readily available vital signs reflecting the severity of disease may precisely predict in-hospital mortality in diverse populations and can rapidly assist decisions to prioritize admissions and intensive care.

Apolipoprotein E is a glycoprotein best known as a mediator and regulator of lipid transport and uptake. The APOE-ε4 allele has long been associated with increased risks of Alzheimer's disease and mortality, but the effect of the less prevalent APOE-ε2 allele on diseases in the elderly and survival remains elusive. We aggregated data of 38,537 individuals of European ancestry (mean age 65.5 years; 55.6% women) from six population-based cohort studies (Rotterdam Study, AGES-Reykjavik Study, Cardiovascular Health Study, Health-ABC Study, and the family-based Framingham Heart Study and Long Life Family Study) to determine the association of APOE, and in particular APOE-ε2, with survival in the population. During a mean follow-up of 11.7 years, 17,021 individuals died. Compared with homozygous APOE-ε3 carriers, APOE-ε2 carriers were at lower risk of death (hazard ratio,95% confidence interval: 0.94,0.90-0.99; P = 1.1*10-2), whereas APOE-ε4 carriers were at increased risk of death (HR 1.17,1.12-1.21; P = 2.8*10-16). APOE was associated with mortality risk in a dose-dependent manner, with risk estimates lowest for homozygous APOE-ε2 (HR 0.89,0.74-1.08), and highest for homozygous APOE-ε4 (HR 1.52,1.37-1.70). After censoring for dementia, effect estimates remained similar for APOE-ε2 (HR 0.95,0.90-1.01), but attenuated for APOE-ε4 (HR 1.07,1.01-1.12). Results were broadly similar across cohorts, and did not differ by age or sex. APOE genotype was associated with baseline lipid fractions (e.g. mean difference(95%CI) in LDL(mg/dL) for ε2 versus ε33: -17.1(-18.1-16.0), and ε4 versus ε33: +5.7(4.8;6.5)), but the association between APOE and mortality was unaltered after adjustment for baseline LDL or cardiovascular disease. Given the European ancestry of the study population, results may not apply to other ethnicities. Compared with APOE-ε3, APOE-ε2 is associated with prolonged survival, whereas mortality risk is increased for APOE-ε4 carriers. Further collaborative efforts are needed to unravel the role of APOE and in particular APOE-ε2 in health and disease.

Abstract Study Objectives Periodic limb movement in sleep is a common sleep phenotype characterized by repetitive leg movements that occur during or before sleep. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of periodic limb movements in sleep (PLMS) using a joint analysis (i.e., discovery, replication, and joint meta-analysis) of four cohorts (MrOS, the Wisconsin Sleep Cohort Study, HypnoLaus, and MESA), comprised of 6843 total subjects. Methods The MrOS study and Wisconsin Sleep Cohort Study (N = 1745 cases) were used for discovery. Replication in the HypnoLaus and MESA cohorts (1002 cases) preceded joint meta-analysis. We also performed LD score regression, estimated heritability, and computed genetic correlations between potentially associated traits such as restless leg syndrome (RLS) and insomnia. The causality and direction of the relationships between PLMS and RLS was evaluated using Mendelian randomization. Results We found 2 independent loci were significantly associated with PLMS: rs113851554 (p = 3.51 × 10−12, β = 0.486), an SNP located in a putative regulatory element of intron eight of MEIS1 (2p14); and rs9369062 (p = 3.06 × 10−22, β = 0.2093), a SNP located in the intron region of BTBD9 (6p12); both of which were also lead signals in RLS GWAS. PLMS is genetically correlated with insomnia, risk of stroke, and RLS, but not with iron deficiency. Pleiotropy adjusted Mendelian randomization analysis identified a causal effect of RLS on PLMS. Conclusions Because PLMS is more common than RLS, PLMS may have multiple causes and additional studies are needed to further validate these findings.

The switch gene Sex-lethal (Sxl) was thought to elicit all aspects of Drosophila female somatic differentiation other than size dimorphism by controlling only the switch gene transformer (tra). Here we show instead that Sxl controls an aspect of female sexual behavior by acting on a target other than or in addition to tra. We inferred the existence of this unknown Sxl target from the observation that a constitutively feminizing tra transgene that restores fertility to tra ⁻ females failed to restore fertility to Sxl -mutant females that were adult viable but functionally tra ⁻. The sterility of these mutant females was caused by an ovulation failure. Because tra expression is not sufficient to render these Sxl -mutant females fertile, we refer to this pathway as the tra -insufficient feminization (TIF) branch of the sex-determination regulatory pathway. Using a transgene that conditionally expresses two S xl feminizing isoforms, we find that the TIF branch is required developmentally for neurons that also sex-specifically express fruitless , a tra gene target controlling sexual behavior. Thus, in a subset of fruitless neurons, targets of the TIF and tra pathways appear to collaborate to control ovulation. In most insects, Sxl has no sex-specific functions, and tra , rather than Sxl , is both the target of the primary sex signal and the gene that maintains the female developmental commitment via positive autoregulation. The TIF pathway may represent an ancestral female-specific function acquired by Sxl in an early evolutionary step toward its becoming the regulator of tra in Drosophil a .

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in and near ABCA7 , BIN1 , CASS4 , CD2AP , CD33 , CELF1 , CLU , complement receptor 1 ( CR1 ), EPHA1 , EXOC3L2 , FERMT2 , HLA cluster (DRB5-DQA) , INPP5D , MEF2C , MS4A cluster ( MS4A3-MS4A6E ), NME8 , PICALM , PTK2B , SLC24A4 , SORL1 , and ZCWPW1 have been associated with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in large meta-analyses. We aimed to determine whether established AD-associated genes are associated with longitudinal cognitive decline by examining aggregate variation across these gene regions. In two single-sex cohorts of older, community-dwelling adults, we examined the association between SNPs in previously implicated gene regions and cognitive decline (age-adjusted person-specific cognitive slopes) using a Sequence Kernel Association Test (SKAT). In regions which showed aggregate significance, we examined the univariate association between individual SNPs in the region and cognitive decline. Only two of the original AD-associated SNPs were significantly associated with cognitive decline in our cohorts. We identified significant aggregate-level associations between cognitive decline and the gene regions BIN1 , CD33 , CELF1 , CR1 , HLA cluster, and MEF2C in the all-female cohort and significant associations with ABCA7 , HLA cluster, MS4A6E , PICALM , PTK2B , SLC24A4 , and SORL1 in the all-male cohort. We also identified a block of eight correlated SNPs in CD33 and several blocks of correlated SNPs in CELF1 that were significantly associated with cognitive decline in univariate analysis in the all-female cohort.

Summary The G allele of the FOXO3 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs2802292 exhibits a consistently replicated genetic association with longevity in multiple populations worldwide. The aims of this study were to quantify the mortality risk for the longevity-associated genotype and to discover the particular cause(s) of death associated with this allele in older Americans of diverse ancestry. It involved a 17-year prospective cohort study of 3584 older American men of Japanese ancestry from the Honolulu Heart Program cohort, followed by a 17-year prospective replication study of 1595 white and 1056 black elderly individuals from the Health Aging and Body Composition cohort. The relation between FOXO3 genotype and cause-specific mortality was ascertained for major causes of death including coronary heart disease (CHD), cancer, and stroke. Age-adjusted and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to compute hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause and cause-specific mortality. We found G allele carriers had a combined (Japanese, white, and black populations) risk reduction of 10% for total (all-cause) mortality (HR = 0.90; 95% CI, 0.84-0.95; P = 0.001). This effect size was consistent across populations and mostly contributed by 26% lower risk for CHD death (HR = 0.74; 95% CI, 0.64-0.86; P = 0.00004). No other causes of death made a significant contribution to the survival advantage for G allele carriers. In conclusion, at older age, there is a large risk reduction in mortality for G allele carriers, mostly due to lower CHD mortality. The findings support further research on FOXO3 and FoxO3 protein as potential targets for therapeutic intervention in aging-related diseases, particularly cardiovascular disease.

This study presents an analysis of the small molecule bioactivity profiles across large quantities of diverse protein families represented in PubChem BioAssay. We compared the bioactivity profiles of FDA approved drugs to non-FDA approved compounds, and report several distinct patterns characteristic of the approved drugs. We found that a large fraction of the previously reported higher target promiscuity among FDA approved compounds, compared to non-FDA approved bioactives, was frequently due to cross-reactivity within rather than across protein families. We identified 804 potentially novel protein target candidates for FDA approved drugs, as well as 901 potentially novel target candidates with active non-FDA approved compounds, but no FDA approved drugs with activity against these targets. We also identified 486348 potentially novel compounds active against the same targets as FDA approved drugs, as well as 153402 potentially novel compounds active against targets without active FDA approved drugs. By quantifying the agreement among replicated screens, we estimated that more than half of these novel outcomes are reproducible. Using biclustering, we identified many dense clusters of FDA approved drugs with enriched activity against a common set of protein targets. We also report the distribution of compound promiscuity using a Bayesian statistical model, and report the sensitivity and specificity of two common methods for identifying promiscuous compounds. Aggregator assays exhibited greater accuracy in identifying highly promiscuous compounds, while PAINS substructures were able to identify a much larger set of \"middle range\" promiscuous compounds. Additionally, we report a large number of promiscuous compounds not identified as aggregators or PAINS. In summary, the results of this study represent a rich reference for selecting novel drug and target protein candidates, as well as for eliminating candidate compounds with unselective activities.

Purpose of Review The integration of data from multiple genomic assays from humans and non-human model organisms is an effective approach to identify genes involved in skeletal fragility and fracture risk due to osteoporosis and other conditions. This review summarizes genome-wide genetic variation and gene expression data resources relevant to the discovery of genes contributing to skeletal fragility and fracture risk. Recent Findings Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of osteoporosis-related traits are summarized, in addition to gene expression in bone tissues in humans and non-human organisms, with a focus on rodent models related to skeletal fragility and fracture risk. Gene discovery approaches using these genomic data resources are described. We also describe the Musculoskeletal Knowledge Portal (MSKKP) that integrates much of the available genomic data relevant to fracture risk. Summary The available genomic resources provide a wealth of knowledge and can be analyzed to identify genes related to fracture risk. Genomic resources that would fill particular scientific gaps are discussed.

Common genetic variants 3' of MC4R within two large linkage disequilibrium (LD) blocks spanning 288 kb have been associated with common and rare forms of obesity. This large association region has not been refined and the relevant DNA segments within the association region have not been identified. In this study, we investigated whether common variants in the MC4R gene region were associated with adiposity-related traits in a biracial population-based study. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the MC4R region were genotyped with a custom array and a genome-wide array and associations between SNPs and five adiposity-related traits were determined using race-stratified linear regression. Previously reported associations between lower BMI and the minor alleles of rs2229616/Val103Ile and rs52820871/Ile251Leu were replicated in white female participants. Among white participants, rs11152221 in a proximal 3' LD block (closer to MC4R) was significantly associated with multiple adiposity traits, but SNPs in a distal 3' LD block (farther from MC4R) were not. In a case-control study of severe obesity, rs11152221 was significantly associated. The association results directed our follow-up studies to the proximal LD block downstream of MC4R. By considering nucleotide conservation, the significance of association, and proximity to the MC4R gene, we identified a candidate MC4R regulatory region. This candidate region was sequenced in 20 individuals from a study of severe obesity in an attempt to identify additional variants, and the candidate region was tested for enhancer activity using in vivo enhancer assays in zebrafish and mice. Novel variants were not identified by sequencing and the candidate region did not drive reporter gene expression in zebrafish or mice. The identification of a putative insulator in this region could help to explain the challenges faced in this study and others to link SNPs associated with adiposity to altered MC4R expression.

Aging is characterized by systemic declines in tissue and organ functions. Interventions that slow these declines represent promising therapeutics to protect against age‐related disease and improve the quality of life. In this study, several interventions associated with lifespan extension in invertebrates or improvement of age‐related disease were tested in mouse models to determine if they were effective in slowing tissue aging in a broad spectrum of functional assays. Benzoxazole, which extends the lifespan of Caenorhabditis elegans, slowed age‐related femoral bone loss in mice. Rates of change were established for clinically significant parameters in untreated mice, including kyphosis, blood glucose, body composition, activity, metabolic measures, and detailed parameters of skeletal aging in bone. These findings have implications for the study of preclinical physiological aging and therapies targeting aging. Finally, an online application was created that includes the calculated rates of change and that enables power and variance to be calculated for many clinically important metrics of aging with an emphasis on bone. This resource will help in future study designs employing novel interventions in aging mice. © 2021 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC. on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.