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10,304 result(s) for "Evans, Michael"
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Combining Statistical Evidence When Evidence Is Measured by Relative Belief
The problem of combining statistical evidence concerning an unknown, contained in each of the k Bayesian inference bases, is discussed. This can be considered as being related to the problem of pooling k priors to determine a consensus prior, but the focus here is instead on combining a measure of statistical evidence to obtain a consensus measure of statistical evidence. The linear opinion pool is seen to have the most appropriate properties for this role. In particular, linear pooling preserves a consensus with respect to the evidence, and other rules do not. While linear pooling does not preserve prior independence, it is shown that it still behaves appropriately with respect to the expression of statistical evidence in such a context. For the more general problem of combining statistical evidence, where the priors as well as the sampling models may differ, Jeffrey conditionalization plays a key role.
Rise of the Elgen
Fifteen-year-old Michael Vey, born with Tourette's syndrome and special electromagnetic powers, joins his techno-genius best friend and an alliance of other \"electric\" teenagers to battle powerful foes in the jungles of Peru, where Michael learns the Order of Elgen's plan to \"restructure\" the world.
A Computational Approach to Qualitative Analysis in Large Textual Datasets
In this paper I introduce computational techniques to extend qualitative analysis into the study of large textual datasets. I demonstrate these techniques by using probabilistic topic modeling to analyze a broad sample of 14,952 documents published in major American newspapers from 1980 through 2012. I show how computational data mining techniques can identify and evaluate the significance of qualitatively distinct subjects of discussion across a wide range of public discourse. I also show how examining large textual datasets with computational methods can overcome methodological limitations of conventional qualitative methods, such as how to measure the impact of particular cases on broader discourse, how to validate substantive inferences from small samples of textual data, and how to determine if identified cases are part of a consistent temporal pattern.
Seeking good debate : religion, science, and conflict in American public life
\"Religion and science often appear to cause conflict in American public life. But why? This book reports the results from the first study to combine large-scale empirical analysis of multiple \"religion and science\" debates with in-depth research into what Americans actually want from public life. The surprising finding is that apparent conflicts involving religion and science reflect a more fundamental conflict between media elites and ordinary Americans over what good debate should be, raising profound questions about the future of the public sphere and American democracy\"--Provided by publisher.
The Concept of Statistical Evidence, Historical Roots and Current Developments
One can argue that one of the main roles of the subject of statistics is to characterize what the evidence in the collected data says about questions of scientific interest. There are two broad questions that we will refer to as the estimation question and the hypothesis assessment question. For estimation, the evidence in the data should determine a particular value of an object of interest together with a measure of the accuracy of the estimate, while for the hypothesis assessment, the evidence in the data should provide evidence in favor of or against some hypothesized value of the object of interest together with a measure of the strength of the evidence. This will be referred to as the evidential approach to statistical reasoning, which can be contrasted with the behavioristic or decision-theoretic approach where the notion of loss is introduced, and the goal is to minimize expected losses. While the two approaches often lead to similar outcomes, this is not always the case, and it is commonly argued that the evidential approach is more suited to scientific applications. This paper traces the history of the evidential approach and summarizes current developments.
Foreign-language learning with digital technology
\"Provides a sustained and in-depth qualitative analysis of the use of digital technology within the field of foreign language learning, drawing on empircal evidence.\"--Publisher description.
Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era
Multidecadal surface temperature changes may be forced by natural as well as anthropogenic factors, or arise unforced from the climate system. Distinguishing these factors is essential for estimating sensitivity to multiple climatic forcings and the amplitude of the unforced variability. Here we present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a global collection of temperature-sensitive palaeoclimate records. Our reconstructions display synchronous multidecadal temperature fluctuations that are coherent with one another and with fully forced millennial model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 across the Common Era. A substantial portion of pre-industrial (1300–1800 ce) variability at multidecadal timescales is attributed to volcanic aerosol forcing. Reconstructions and simulations qualitatively agree on the amplitude of the unforced global mean multidecadal temperature variability, thereby increasing confidence in future projections of climate change on these timescales. The largest warming trends at timescales of 20 years and longer occur during the second half of the twentieth century, highlighting the unusual character of the warming in recent decades.
Storm of lightning
\"Michael and the rest of the Electroclan are facing their greatest crisis yet. The resistance movement has been compromised. The safe house has been destroyed. The voice is in hiding, and they have no idea if their families are alive... or dead. What they do know is that the Elgen won't stop until they've destroyed the Electroclan\"--Front jacket flap.
Moisture dipole over the Tibetan Plateau during the past five and a half centuries
The South Asian Monsoon and mid-latitude Westerlies are two important controls on Tibetan Plateau (TP) fresh water resources. Understanding their interaction requires long-term information on spatial patterns in moisture variability on the TP. Here we develop a network of 23 moisture-sensitive tree-ring chronologies from major juniper forests in a north–south transect on the eastern TP. Over the past five and a half centuries, we find that these chronologies cluster into two groups, North and South, of ∼33° N. Southern and northern regional chronology subsets are positively and significantly correlated with May–June Palmer Drought Severity Indices (PDSI). The meridional moisture stress gradient reconstructed from these data suggests substantial stochastic variation, yet persistent moisture stress differences are observed between 1463–1502 CE and 1693–1734 CE. Identification of these patterns provides clues linking them with forced or intrinsic tropical–extratropical interactions and thus facilitates studies of interannual–decadal dipole variations in hydroclimate over the TP. Controls on the Tibetan Plateau fresh water resources are poorly understood. Here, the authors develop juniper tree-ring chronologies representing over 500 years and show that northern and southern subsets exist due to variations in hydroclimate over this time period.