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"Evans, Samuel"
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Economics after neoliberalism
Economics is in a state of \"creative ferment,\" according to lead authors Suresh Naidu, Dani Rodrik, and Gabriel Zucman. A decade after the Great Recession, they argue for a new brand of economics, one divorced from market fundamentalism and focused instead on a more inclusive society. Responses to their ideas--which come from economists, philosophers, political scientists, and policymakers across the political spectrum--showcase just how passionate the debate over the future of economics has become. -- Publishers website
Book
The management costs of alternative forest management strategies in the Lake Tahoe Basin
Wildfires play an important ecological role in fire-adapted landscapes throughout California. However, there is a growing awareness that large wildfires in increasingly populated areas incur costs that may not be acceptable to society. Various forest management strategies have been proposed that seek to reduce the prevalence and severity of wildfires in areas where these costs are high. In this study we estimate the financial costs of various hypothetical forest management scenarios in the Lake Tahoe West landscape of Northern California. The objective of the study was to quantify trade-offs and cost constraints that would affect the feasibility of each scenario. The scenarios ranged from minimal forest management to several options for more intensive fuels management that relied to varying degrees on thinning and prescribed burning. We assessed stand-level costs associated with thinning, prescribed burn management, and timber and biomass transport, as well as revenues from timber and energy chips sold. Using modeled fire occurrence and severity metrics, we also used historical wildfire data to estimate plausible fire suppression costs. Our findings suggest that increased forest management, through the use of either hand/mechanical treatments or prescribed fire, can reduce fire suppression costs relative to recent practices by more than US$400,000 per year. These more intensive management scenarios differ in their cost-effectiveness. Scenarios that increase the use of prescribed fire appear to be the more cost-effective management interventions available with annual costs roughly half as much as a scenario focused on increased hand and mechanical thinning. The results are useful for understanding the financial implications of modifying forest management practices designed to lower the private and social costs of wildfire in the region.
Journal Article
Stratification effects on shoaling internal solitary waves
This combined numerical/laboratory study investigates the effect of stratification form on the shoaling characteristics of internal solitary waves propagating over a smooth, linear topographic slope. Three stratification types are investigated, namely (i) thin tanh (homogeneous upper and lower layers separated by a thin pycnocline), (ii) surface stratification (linearly stratified layer overlaying a homogeneous lower layer) and (iii) broad tanh (continuous density gradient throughout the water column). It is found that the form of stratification affects the breaking type associated with the shoaling wave. In the thin tanh stratification, good agreement is seen with past studies. Waves over the shallowest slopes undergo fission. Over steeper slopes, the breaking type changes from surging, through collapsing to plunging with increasing wave steepness $A_w/L_w$ for a given topographic slope, where $A_w$ and $L_w$ are incident wave amplitude and wavelength, respectively. In the surface stratification regime, the breaking classification differs from the thin tanh stratification. Plunging dynamics is inhibited by the density gradient throughout the upper layer, instead collapsing-type breakers form for the equivalent location in parameter space in the thin tanh stratification. In the broad tanh profile regime, plunging dynamics is likewise inhibited and the near-bottom density gradient prevents the collapsing dynamics. Instead, all waves either fission or form surging breakers. As wave steepness in the broad tanh stratification increases, the bolus formed by surging exhibits evidence of Kelvin–Helmholtz instabilities on its upper boundary. In both two- and three-dimensional simulations, billow size grows with increasing wave steepness, dynamics not previously observed in the literature.
Journal Article
Real-time monitoring with iTLR4 assay identifies ligand-dependent TLR4-TLR4 conformational dynamics
Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) plays a pivotal role in the innate immune system by recognizing pathogens and initiating immune responses. Despite extensive research over three decades, current methods lack the resolution to measure ligand-induced TLR4 receptor dynamics at the earliest stages of signaling, relying instead on downstream outputs such as gene expression and cytokine secretion. Here, we present the illuminating TLR4 (iTLR4) assay, a novel Bioluminescence Resonance Energy Transfer (BRET)-based platform that provides real-time insights into TLR4 receptor-level events in live cells. The iTLR4 assay demonstrates, for the first time, that lipopolysaccharide (LPS) induces stable interactions between intracellular domains of TLR4 monomers, with an EC50 of 660 EU/mL. Kinetic analysis revealed a gradual, sustained increase in the BRET signal over time. Additionally, the assay uncovered subtle mechanistic differences among functional antagonists. While all antagonists completely abolished LPS-induced IL-8 secretion, the assay demonstrated that at the receptor level LPS-RS completely inhibited the LPS-induced BRET signal, TAK-242 partially inhibited it and (+)-naloxone potentiated it. The assay also identified potential regulatory roles for CD14 and MD2 in naloxone stereoisomer activity, marking the first report of such mechanistic differences. These findings highlight the unique capabilities of the iTLR4 assay to track nuanced TLR4 receptor dynamics, enabling high-throughput screening of TLR4-specific modulators. This platform provides critical insights into ligand-induced signaling, paving the way for the development of novel therapeutics targeting TLR4-related diseases and advancing our understanding of innate immune responses.
Journal Article
No clear evidence of a difference between individuals who self-report an absence of auditory imagery and typical imagers on auditory imagery tasks
Aphantasia is characterised by the inability to create mental images in one's mind. Studies investigating impairments in imagery typically focus on the visual domain. However, it is possible to generate many different forms of imagery including imagined auditory, kinesthetic, tactile, motor, taste and other experiences. Recent studies show that individuals with aphantasia report a lack of imagery in modalities, other than vision, including audition. However, to date, no research has examined whether these reductions in self-reported auditory imagery are associated with decrements in tasks that require auditory imagery. Understanding the extent to which visual and auditory imagery deficits co-occur can help to better characterise the core deficits of aphantasia and provide an alternative perspective on theoretical debates on the extent to which imagery draws on modality-specific or modality-general processes. In the current study, individuals that self-identified as being aphantasic and matched control participants with typical imagery performed two tasks: a musical pitch-based imagery and voice-based categorisation task. The majority of participants with aphantasia self-reported significant deficits in both auditory and visual imagery. However, we did not find a concomitant decrease in performance on tasks which require auditory imagery, either in the full sample or only when considering those participants that reported significant deficits in both domains. These findings are discussed in relation to the mechanisms that might obscure observation of imagery deficits in auditory imagery tasks in people that report reduced auditory imagery.
Journal Article
An empirical analysis of the environmental performance of China’s overseas coal plants
China’s ongoing commitment to overseas infrastructure investment through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has ignited concern over environmental impacts. The BRI’s environmental impacts will be determined by China’s decisions not only on what kinds of projects to fund, but also how those projects end up operating relative to projects without Chinese involvement. It is critical to understand current performance and establish a baseline understanding of the environmental impacts of China’s overseas projects thus far. We examine the environmental performance of coal-fired power plants in Asia in terms of carbon dioxide emissions intensity. Using generating unit-level data and a regression-based analysis, we estimate the comparative emissions intensity of overseas coal plants owned, designed, or constructed, by Chinese and non-Chinese companies. We find that Chinese coal plants tend to have significantly lower emissions intensity than similar non-Chinese coal plants. Given that total emissions rather than relative emissions intensity primarily drive the global warming impact of a plant, we also estimate total annual emissions and committed lifetime emissions of the plants in our dataset. We find that while Chinese plants may have relatively lower emissions intensity, their total emissions will grow as a proportion of the coal plant emissions in Asia over time.
Journal Article
Oakland Score for Predicting Safe Discharge and Major Risks After Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding
DETAILS FOR THIS REVIEW Study Population: 39,991 patients with acute lower gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding from four independent cohorts Efficacy End Points: Safe for hospital discharge, major bleeding, need for blood transfusion, need for hemostasis Harm End Points: Not applicable THE NUMBERS Oakland Score > 8 Major bleeding Sensitivity: 97% (95% CI, 95%–99%) Specificity: 9% (95% CI, 7%–12%) Positive likelihood ratio: 1.07 Blood transfusion Sensitivity: 99% (95% CI, 99.1%–99.3%) Specificity: 12% (95% CI, 9%–18%) Positive likelihood ratio: 1.14 Need for hemostasis Sensitivity: 91% (95% CI, 81%–96%) Specificity: 7% (95% CI, 4%–12%) Positive likelihood ratio: 1.0 Oakland Score ≤ 8 Safe discharge Sensitivity: 10% (95% CI, 5%–20%) Specificity: 97% (95% CI, 95%–98%) Negative likelihood ratio: 0.9 Narrative: Lower GI bleeding is a common reason for emergency department visits, with an annual incidence of 84 per 100,000 adults. The systematic review and meta-analysis discussed here explores the performance of multiple risk stratification scores in patients with lower GI bleeding.2 The systematic review included nine trials encompassing 12 independent cohorts to assess four lower GI bleeding risk scores (Oakland, Strate, NOBLADS [nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use, no diarrhea, no abdominal tenderness, blood pressure ≤ 100 mm Hg, antiplatelet drug use (nonaspirin), albumin < 3.0 g/dL (30.0 g/L), disease score ≥ 2 (according to the Charlson Comorbidity Index), and syncope], BLEED [ongoing bleeding, low systolic blood pressure, elevated prothrombin time, erratic mental status, and unstable comorbid disease]). Caveats: This systematic review assessed the quality of studies eligible for inclusion using the modified Quality Assessment on Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool.2 The risk of selection bias was low, as were the risks associated with bias in risk score calculation and outcome adjudication.
Journal Article
Comprehensive review of carbon quantification by improved forest management offset protocols
Improved forest management (IFM) has the potential to remove and store large quantities of carbon from the atmosphere. Around the world, 293 IFM offset projects have produced 11% of offset credits by voluntary offset registries to date, channeling substantial climate mitigation funds into forest management projects. This paper summarizes the state of the scientific literature for key carbon offset quality criteria—additionality, baselines, leakage, durability, and forest carbon accounting—and discusses how well currently used IFM protocols align with this literature. Our analysis identifies important areas where the protocols deviate from scientific understanding related to baselines, leakage, risk of reversal, and the accounting of carbon in forests and harvested wood products, risking significant over-estimation of carbon offset credits. We recommend specific improvements to the protocols that would likely result in more accurate estimates of program impact, and identify areas in need of more research. Most importantly, more conservative baselines can substantially reduce, but not resolve, over-crediting risk from multiple factors.
Journal Article
Modeling the Risk Reduction Benefit of Forest Management Using a Case Study in the Lake Tahoe Basin
Across the United States, wildfire severity and frequency are increasing, placing many properties at risk of harm or destruction. We quantify and compare how different forest management strategies designed to increase forest resilience and health reduce the number of properties at risk from wildfire, focusing on the Lake Tahoe Basin of California and Nevada. We combine landscape change simulations (including climate change, wildfire, and management effects) with scenarios of current and plausible fuel treatment activities and parcel-scale fire risk analysis. Results suggest that more aggressive fuel treatment activities that treat more area on the landscape, whether through mechanical and hand thinning or prescribed fire, dramatically lower the fire probability in the region and lead to a corresponding lower risk of property loss. We estimate that relative to recent practices of focusing management in the wildland–urban interface, more active forest management can reduce property loss risk by 45%–76%, or approximately 2600–4900 properties. The majority of this risk reduction is for single family residences, which constitute most structures in the region. Further, we find that the highest risk reduction is obtained through strategies that treat a substantially greater area than is currently treated in the region and allows for selective wildfires to burn for resource objectives outside of the wildland–urban interface. These results highlight the importance of more active forest management as an effective tool in reducing the wildfire risk to capital assets in the region.
Journal Article
Dense pulses formed from fissioning internal waves
Cold pulses generated by the fission of internal solitary waves over gentle slopes are an important source of nutrients and relief from excess heat to benthic ecosystems. This numerical study investigates the effect of stratification form on pulses produced by fission of internal solitary waves propagating over a smooth, gentle, linear topographic slope in 2D simulations. Three stratification types are investigated, namely (i) thin tanh (homogeneous upper and lower layers separated by a thin pycnocline), (ii) surface stratification (linearly stratified layer overlaying a homogeneous lower layer) and (iii) broad tanh (continuous density gradient throughout the water column). Incident wave amplitude was varied. In the thin tanh stratification, good agreement is seen with past studies, whilst the dynamics observed in the surface stratification are very similar to those in the thin tanh stratification. However, in the broad tanh stratification, due to the different form of incident waves, the fission dynamics differ, but produce pulses similar in form to those produced by fission in the other stratifications. Pulse amplitude, wavelength and propagation velocity are found to strongly depend on incident wave amplitude, and each degenerate linearly as the pulse propagates upslope.
Journal Article