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Ski tourism is a substantial component of the economy of mountainous regions in Europe and is highly vulnerable to snow scarcity, which is increasing due to climate change. However, the climate change snow supply risk to ski tourism has not been quantified in a consistent way throughout Europe, including the influence and environmental footprint of snowmaking. Here we show that the snow supply risk to ski tourism increases with global warming level, heterogeneously within and across mountain areas and countries. Without snowmaking, 53% and 98% of the 2,234 ski resorts studied in 28 European countries are projected to be at very high risk for snow supply under global warming of 2 °C and 4 °C, respectively. By contrast, assuming a snowmaking fractional coverage of 50% leads to corresponding proportions of 27% and 71%, but with increasing water and electricity demand (and related carbon footprint) of snowmaking. While it represents a modest fraction of the overall carbon footprint of ski tourism, snowmaking is an inherent part of the ski tourism industry and epitomizes some of the key challenges at the nexus between climate change adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development in the mountains, with their high social-ecological vulnerability.Climate change poses a substantial challenge to ski tourism due to the strong reductions in snow cover in many mountain regions. Here, the authors assess the risks to ski resorts in 28 European countries and the potential water demand and emissions associated with snowmaking.

Ski tourism is a major sector of mountain regions economy, which is under the threat of long-term climate change. Snow management, and in particular grooming and artificial snowmaking, has become a routine component of ski resort operations, holding potential for counteracting the detrimental effect of natural snow decline. However, conventional snowmaking can only operate under specific meteorological conditions. Whether snowmaking is a relevant adaptation measure under future climate change is a widely debated issue in mountainous regions, with major implications on the supply side of this tourism industry. This often lacks comprehensive scientific studies for informing public and private decisions in this sector. Here we show how climate change influences the operating conditions of one of the main ski tourism markets worldwide, the French Alps. Our study addresses snow reliability in 129 ski resorts in the French Alps in the 21st century, using a dedicated snowpack model explicitly accounting for grooming and snowmaking driven by a large ensemble of adjusted and downscaled regional climate projections, and using a geospatial model of ski resorts organization. A 45% snowmaking fractional coverage, representative of the infrastructures in the early 2020s, is projected to improve snow reliability over grooming-only snow conditions, both during the reference period 1986-2005 and below 2 degrees C global warming since pre-industrial. Beyond 3 degrees C of global warming, with 45% snowmaking coverage, snow conditions would become frequently unreliable and induce higher water requirements.

This study investigates the relationship between snow conditions and snowmaking investments for over 100 French Alps ski resorts. Investment trends represent a critical issue in capital-intensive sectors such as the ski industry. The data are based on snow reliability indicators and snowmaking investments covering 1997–2014. Descriptive statistics reveal that snowmaking has been the second investment item for ski resorts regardless of the elevation or ski resort size. The study finds that snowmaking investments are highly negatively correlated to snow conditions of the prior year for small and medium-sized ski resorts. Other factors are also likely to play a significant role in driving snowmaking investment dynamics.

Over the coming decades, the predicted increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events such as droughts is likely to have a strong effect on forest functioning. Recent studies have shown that species mixing may buffer the temporal variability of productivity. However, most studies have focused on temporal stability of productivity, while species mixing may also affect forest resilience to extreme events. Our understanding of mechanisms underlying species mixing effects on forest stability and resilience remains limited because we ignore how changes from intraspecific to interspecific interactions in the neighbourhood of a given tree might affect its stability and resilience to extreme drought (i.e. response during and after this drought). This is crucial to better understand forests' response to climate change and how diversity may help maintain forest functioning.2. Here we analysed how local intra-or interspecific interactions may affect the temporal stability and resilience to drought of individual trees in French mountain forests, using basal area increment data over the previous 20 years for Fagus sylvatica, Abies alba and Quercus pubescens. We analysed the effect of interspecific competition on (a) the temporal stability and (b) the resilience to drought (resistance and recovery) of individual tree radial growth.3. We found no significant interspecific competition effect on temporal stability, but species-specific effects on tree growth resilience to drought. There was a positive effect of heterospecific proportion on the drought resilience of Q. pubescens, a negative effect for A. alba and no effect for F. sylvatica. These differences may be related to interspecific differences in water use or rooting depth.4. Synthesis: In this study, we showed that stand composition influences individual tree growth resilience to drought, but this effect varied depending on the species and its physiological responses. Our study also highlighted that a lack of biodiversity effect on long-term stability might hide important effects on short-term resilience to extreme climatic events. This may have important implications in the face of climate change.

Indicators are widely used in climate variability and climate change assessments to simplify the tracking of complex processes and phenomena in the state of the environment. Apart from the climatic criteria, the snow indicators in ski tourism have been increasingly extended with elements that relate to the technical, operational, and commercial aspects of ski tourism. These non-natural influencing factors have gained in importance in comparison with the natural environmental conditions but are more difficult to comprehend in time and space, resulting in limited explanatory power of the related indicators when applied for larger/longer scale assessments. We review the existing indicator approaches to derive quantitative measures for the snow conditions in ski areas, to formulate the criteria that the indicators should fulfill, and to provide a list of indicators with their technical specifications which can be used in snow condition assessments for ski tourism. For the use of these indicators, a three-step procedure consisting of definition, application, and interpretation is suggested. We also provide recommendations for the design of indicator-based assessments of climate change effects on ski tourism. Thereby, we highlight the importance of extensive stakeholder involvement to allow for real-world relevance of the achieved results.

The presence of a ski resort modifies the snow cover at the local scale, due to snow management practices on ski pistes, especially grooming and snowmaking. Snow management exerts 2-fold effects on the local hydrological cycle, through (i) abstraction and transfer of water used for snowmaking, and (ii) changes in water runoff due to added snow mass through snowmaking and/or delayed melting of the snowpack due to snow grooming. This induces a local pressure on water resources, which has seldom been addressed in scientific studies hitherto. Here we introduce a method to compute the hydrological effects of snow management on ski pistes and we apply and illustrate its results for the case study of the La Plagne ski resort in the Northern French Alps. The approach mainly relies on snow cover modelling using the Crocus snow cover driven by SAFRAN reanalysis and climate projections. Model results are evaluated against in-situ hydrological observations and show that the modelling approach, although very simplified for many hydrological processes, provides relevant information and insights in terms of the influence of snow-related processes on water resources. Our study shows a visible impact of grooming, virtually eliminating snowmelt in winter, thus delaying the onset of snowmelt. This results is a lower snowmelt flux during the wintertime, low flow period, on the order of −10 % to −20 %, compensated by higher amounts when snow melts. While about 10 % of the water used for snowmaking is estimated to be lost by evaporation through the ice formation process from the liquid water droplets, we find that, in the case studied, the annual scale alteration of water resources is limited and estimated to be on the order of 1 % to 2 %. This is due to the fact that the amount of water used for snowmaking on ski pistes represents a fraction of 10 % to 20 % of total annual precipitation, that ski pistes cover typically 10 % of the surface area of catchments within which ski resorts are located, and that snowmaking equipment covers, in the case of La Plagne, 40 % of the surface area of ski pistes. Therefore, in this case, snowmaking mainly leads to a moderate shift in snow cover formation and snowmelt processes and plays, for example, a smaller role than the influence of future climate change on mountain hydrology. This study provides an initial overview of the influence of grooming and snowmaking on river flows in a mountain catchment, which can inform future studies on water management and climate change adaptation in areas with ski tourism facilities. This study does not discuss long-term sustainability challenges of ski tourism and other aspects of the local environmental impacts (landscape, biodiversity) of snow management, such as the construction and use of mountain water reservoirs and other earthworks in ski resorts.

Sustainable management of forest ecosystems requires the use of reliable and easy to implement biodiversity and naturalness indicators. Tree-related microhabitats (TreMs) can fulfill these roles as they harbor specialized species that directly or indirectly depend on them, and are generally more abundant and diverse in natural forests or forests unmanaged for several decades. The TreM concept is however still recent, implying the existence of many knowledge gaps that can challenge its robustness and applicability. To evaluate the current state of knowledge on TreMs, we conducted a systematic review followed by a bibliometric analysis of the literature identified. A total of 101 articles constituted the final corpus. Most of the articles (60.3%) were published in 2017 or after. TreM research presented a marked lack of geographical representativity, as the vast majority (68.3%) of the articles studied French, German or Italian forests. The main themes addressed by the literature were the value of TreMs as biodiversity indicators, the impact of forest management on TreMs and the factors at the tree- and stand-scales favoring TreMs occurrence. Old-growth and unmanaged forests played a key role as a “natural” forest reference for these previous themes, as TreMs were often much more abundant and diverse compared to managed forests. Arthropods were the main phylum studied for the theme of TreMs as biodiversity indicators. Other more diverse themes were identified, such as restoration, remote sensing, climate change and economy and there was a lack of research related to the social sciences. Overall, current research on TreMs has focused on assessing its robustness as an indicator of biodiversity and naturalness at the stand scale. The important geographical gap identified underscores the importance of expanding the use of the TreMs in other forest ecosystems of the world. The notable efforts made in recent years to standardize TreM studies are an important step in this direction. The novelty of the TreM concept can partially explain the thematic knowledge gaps. Our results nevertheless stress the high potential of TreMs for multidisciplinary research, and we discuss the benefits of expanding the use of TreMs on a larger spatial scale.

Recent climate warming has fueled interest into climate-driven range shifts of tree species. A common approach to detect range shifts is to compare the divergent occurrences between juvenile and adult trees along environmental gradients using static data. Divergent occurrences between life stages can, however, also be caused by ontogenetic effects. These include shifts of the viable environmental conditions throughout development ('ontogenetic niche shift') as well as demographic dependencies that constrain the possible occurrence of subsequent life stages. Whether ontogenetic effects are an important driver of divergent occurrences between juvenile and adult trees along large-scale climatic gradients is largely unknown. It is, however, critical in evaluating whether impacts of environmental change can be inferred from static data on life stage occurrences. Here, we first show theoretically, using a two-life stage simulation model, how both temporal range shift and ontogenetic effects can lead to similar divergent occurrences between adults and juveniles (juvenile divergence). We further demonstrate that juvenile divergence can unambiguously be attributed to ontogenetic effects, when juveniles diverge from adults in opposite direction to their temporal shift along the environmental gradient. Second, to empirically test whether ontogenetic effects are an important driver of divergent occurrences across Europe, we use repeated national forest inventories from Sweden, Germany and Spain to assess juvenile divergence and temporal shift for 40 tree species along large-scale climatic gradients. About half of the species-country combinations had significant juvenile divergences along heat sum and water availability gradients. Only a quarter of the tree species had significant detectable temporal shifts within the observation period. Furthermore, significant juvenile divergences were frequently associated with opposite temporal shifts, indicating that ontogenetic effects are a relevant cause of divergent occurrences between life stages. Our study furthers the understanding of ontogenetic effects and challenges the practice of inferring climate change impacts from static data.

Climate change is increasingly regarded as a threat for winter tourism due to the combined effect of decreasing natural snow amounts and decreasing suitable periods for snowmaking. The present work investigated the snow reliability of 175 ski resorts in France (Alps and Pyrenees), Spain and Andorra under past and future conditions using state-of-the-art snowpack modelling and climate projections using Representative Concentration Pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The natural snow reliability (i.e. without snowmaking) elevation showed a significant spatial variability in the reference period (1986-2005) and was shown to be highly impacted by the ongoing climate change. The reliability elevation using snowmaking is projected to rise by 200 to 300 m in the Alps and by 400 to 600 m in the Pyrenees in the near future (2030-2050) compared to the reference period for all climate scenarios. While 99 of ski lift infrastructures exhibit adequate snow reliability in the reference period when using snowmaking, a significant fraction (14 to 25 %) may be considered in a critical situation in the near future. Beyond the mid-century, climate projections highly depend on the scenario with either steady conditions compared to the near future (RCP2.6) or continuous decrease in snow reliability (RCP8.5). Under RCP8.5, our projections show that there would no longer be any snow-reliable ski resorts based on natural snow conditions in the French Alps and Pyrenees (France, Spain and Andorra) at the end of the century (2080-2100). For this time period and this scenario, only 24 resorts are projected to remain reliable with snowmaking, all being located in the Alps.

Forest fires are expected to be more frequent and more intense with climate change, including in temperate and mountain forest ecosystems. In the Alps, forest vulnerability to fire resulting from interactions between climate, fuel types, vegetation structure and tree resistance to fire is little understood. This paper aims at identifying trends in the vulnerability of Alpine forest ecosystems to fire at different scales (tree species, stand level and biogeographic level) and according to three different climatic conditions (cold season, average summer and extremely dry summer). To explore Alpine forest vulnerability to fire, we used surface fuel measurements, forest inventory and fire weather data to simulate fire behaviour and ultimately post-fire tree mortality across 4438 forest plots in the French Alps. The results showed that cold season fires (about 50% of the fires in the French Alps) have a limited impact except on low-elevation forests of the Southern Alps (mainly Oak, Scots pine). In average summer conditions, mixed and broadleaved forests of low elevations suffer the highest mortality rates (up to 75% in coppices). Finally, summer fires occurring in extremely dry conditions promote high mortality across all forest communities. Lowest mortality rates were observed in high forest stands composed of tree species presenting adaptation to surface fires (e.g. thick bark, high canopy) such as Larch forests of the internal Alps. This study provides insights on the vulnerability of the main tree species and forest ecosystems of the French Alps useful for the adaptation of forest management practices to climate changes.