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"FOSTER, REBECCA J."
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Spatially explicit capture recapture density estimates: Robustness, accuracy and precision in a long-term study of jaguars (Panthera onca)
by
Foster, Rebecca J.
,
Harmsen, Bart J.
,
Quigley, Howard
in
Accuracy
,
Animal behavior
,
Animal tracking
2020
Camera trapping is the standard field method of monitoring cryptic, low-density mammal populations. Typically, researchers run camera surveys for 60 to 90 days and estimate density using closed population spatially explicit capture-recapture (SCR) models. The SCR models estimate density, capture probability (g0), and a scale parameter (σ) that reflects ranging behaviour. We used a year of camera data from 20 camera stations to estimate the density of male jaguars (Panthera onca) in the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary in Belize, using closed population SCR models. We subsampled the dataset into 276 90-day sessions and 186 180-day sessions. Estimated density fluctuated from 0.51 to 5.30 male jaguars / 100 km2 between the 90-day sessions, with comparatively robust and precise estimates for the 180-day sessions (0.73 to 3.75 male jaguars / 100 km2). We explain the variation in density estimates from the 90-day sessions in terms of temporal variation in social behaviour, specifically male competition and mating events during the three-month wet season. Density estimates from the 90-day sessions varied with σ, but not with the number of individuals detected, suggesting that variation in density was almost fully attributable to changes in estimated ranging behaviour. We found that the models overestimated σ when compared to the mean ranging distance derived from GPS tracking data from two collared individuals in the camera grid. Overestimation of σ when compared to GPS collar data was more pronounced for the 180-day sessions than the 90-day sessions. We conclude that one-off ('snap-shot') short-term, small-scale camera trap surveys do not sufficiently sample wide-ranging large carnivores. When using SCR models to estimate the density from these data, we caution against the use of poor sampling designs and/or misinterpretation of scope of inference. Although the density estimates from one-off, short-term, small-scale camera trap surveys may be statistically accurate within each short-term sampling period, the variation between density estimates from multiple sessions throughout the year illustrate that the estimates obtained should be carefully interpreted and extrapolated, because different factors, such as temporal stochasticity in behaviour of a few individuals, may have strong repercussions on density estimates. Because of temporal variation in behaviour, reliable density estimates will require larger samples of individuals and spatial recaptures than those presented in this study (mean +/- SD = 14.2 +/- 1.2 individuals, 37.7 +/- 4.7 spatial recaptures, N = 276 sessions), which are representative of, or higher than published sample sizes. To satisfy the need for larger samples, camera surveys will need to be more expansive with a higher density of stations. In the absence of this, we advocate longer sampling periods and subsampling through time as a means of understanding and describing stability or variation between density estimates.
Journal Article
Long-term spatial dynamics of jaguars in a high-density population
2025
We assessed the socio-spatial dynamics of a jaguar population over 15 years using camera-trap data from Belize. Using ~4,000 independent detections of male jaguars, we documented and quantified range shifts, overlap, and interactions between males. Additionally, ~ 700 independent detections of females allowed us to investigate interactions between the sexes. Using the distance between activity centres, we assessed the variation in space use within and between males. Male ranges were not stable: activity centres shifted from one year to the next, with a mean maximum distance moved of 8 km per individual between any two years (SD = ± 6 km, n = 371). Overall, we found no evidence of exclusive territoriality. Male jaguars overlapped extensively with one another: males shared, on average, half of their detected range with at least one other male, per year (Volume of Intersect, kernel overlap); while their activity centres lay within 2 km of at least one other male. Close encounters (two individuals at the same location within 24h) were most common between males whose activity centres were ≤ 4 km apart. We found that close encounters between prime males (3-7y) and old males (≥ 8y) occurred less frequently than expected, suggesting avoidance of stronger competitors by the physically weaker, older age class. Notably, old males also had fewer close encounters than expected with females; potentially having reduced access to females because they were avoiding areas frequented by prime males. However, we found no clear evidence of males monopolising females, as females tended to associate with more than one male during the short time windows when they were detected on trails. Overall these results are consistent with a system of scramble competition among males in which overlapping and shifting ranges result from searching for receptive females that are distributed sparsely and unevenly in space and time.
Journal Article
Long-term monitoring of margays (Leopardus wiedii): Implications for understanding low detection rates
by
Foster, Rebecca J.
,
Harmsen, Bart J.
,
Saville, Nicola
in
Animal behavior
,
Biology and Life Sciences
,
Cameras
2021
Population assessments of wide-ranging, cryptic, terrestrial mammals rely on camera trap surveys. While camera trapping is a powerful method of detecting presence, it is difficult distinguishing rarity from low detection rate. The margay ( Leopardus wiedii ) is an example of a species considered rare based on its low detection rates across its range. Although margays have a wide distribution, detection rates with camera traps are universally low; consequently, the species is listed as Near Threatened. Our 12-year camera trap study of margays in protected broadleaf forest in Belize suggests that while margays have low detection rate, they do not seem to be rare, rather that they are difficult to detect with camera traps. We detected a maximum of 187 individuals, all with few or no recaptures over the years (mean = 2.0 captures/individual ± SD 2.1), with two-thirds of individuals detected only once. The few individuals that were recaptured across years exhibited long tenures up to 9 years and were at least 10 years old at their final detection. We detected multiple individuals of both sexes at the same locations during the same survey, suggesting overlapping ranges with non-exclusive territories, providing further evidence of a high-density population. By studying the sparse annual datasets across multiple years, we found evidence of an abundant margay population in the forest of the Cockscomb Basin, which might have been deemed low density and rare, if studied in the short term. We encourage more long-term camera trap studies to assess population status of semi-arboreal carnivore species that have hitherto been considered rare based on low detection rates.
Journal Article
Dietary similarity among jaguars (Panthera onca) in a high-density population
by
Foster, Rebecca J.
,
Harmsen, Bart J.
in
Agricultural land
,
Behavior
,
Biology and Life Sciences
2022
Prey remains found in carnivore scats provide generalised dietary profiles of sampled populations. The profile may be biased if individual diets differ and some individuals are over- or under-represented in the sample. Quantifying individual contributions allows us to recognise these potential biases and better interpret generalised profiles. Knowing the dietary differences or similarity between individuals can help us to understand selection pressures and identify drivers of distribution and abundance. Using the results of individual faecal genotyping, we re-interpreted our previously-published generalised dietary profile of an elusive, neotropical felid, the jaguar ( Panthera onca ; Foster et al. (2010)). We quantified individual sample sizes, assessed whether the generalised profile was influenced by the inclusion of scats originating from the same individual and prey carcass (pseudo-replication), and quantified the distribution of prey species among individuals. From an original sample of 322 jaguar scats from a high-density jaguar population in Belize, we identified 206 prey items (individual prey animals) in 176 independent scats representing 32 jaguars (26 males, 3 females, 3 unknown sex). The influence of pseudo-replication in the original dietary profile was minimal. The majority of scats (94%) came from male jaguars. Eight males accounted for two-thirds of the prey items, while 24 jaguars each contributed <5% of the prey items. With few exceptions, the jaguars followed the same broad diet, a 2:1:1 ratio of nine-banded armadillos ( Dasypus noveminctus ), other vertebrates ≤10kg, and ungulates, primarily peccaries ( Tayassu pecari and Pecari tajacu ). We noted prey switching between wild and domestic ungulates for individuals spanning protected forests and farmland. This first scat-based study exploring individual variation in jaguar diet highlights the importance of armadillos and peccaries for male jaguars in Belize, the need for research on their roles in supporting high-density jaguar populations, and the need for more data on female diet from across the jaguar range.
Journal Article
Long term monitoring of jaguars in the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary, Belize; Implications for camera trap studies of carnivores
by
Foster, Rebecca J.
,
Sanchez, Emma
,
Gutierrez-González, Carmina E.
in
Abundance
,
Analysis
,
Animal Distribution
2017
In this study, we estimate life history parameters and abundance for a protected jaguar population using camera-trap data from a 14-year monitoring program (2002-2015) in Belize, Central America. We investigated the dynamics of this jaguar population using 3,075 detection events of 105 individual adult jaguars. Using robust design open population models, we estimated apparent survival and temporary emigration and investigated individual heterogeneity in detection rates across years. Survival probability was high and constant among the years for both sexes (φ = 0.78), and the maximum (conservative) age recorded was 14 years. Temporary emigration rate for the population was random, but constant through time at 0.20 per year. Detection probability varied between sexes, and among years and individuals. Heterogeneity in detection took the form of a dichotomy for males: those with consistently high detection rates, and those with low, sporadic detection rates, suggesting a relatively stable population of 'residents' consistently present and a fluctuating layer of 'transients'. Female detection was always low and sporadic. On average, twice as many males than females were detected per survey, and individual detection rates were significantly higher for males. We attribute sex-based differences in detection to biases resulting from social variation in trail-walking behaviour. The number of individual females detected increased when the survey period was extended from 3 months to a full year. Due to the low detection rates of females and the variable 'transient' male subpopulation, annual abundance estimates based on 3-month surveys had low precision. To estimate survival and monitor population changes in elusive, wide-ranging, low-density species, we recommend repeated surveys over multiple years; and suggest that continuous monitoring over multiple years yields even further insight into population dynamics of elusive predator populations.
Journal Article
Differential Use of Trails by Forest Mammals and the Implications for Camera-Trap Studies: A Case Study from Belize
by
Foster, Rebecca J.
,
Doncaster, C. Patrick
,
Harmsen, Bart J.
in
Abundance
,
Animal, plant and microbial ecology
,
Applied ecology
2010
Relative abundance indices are often used to compare species abundance between sites. The indices assume that species have similar detection probabilities, or that differences between detection probabilities are known and can be corrected for. Indices often consist of encounter frequencies of footprints, burrows, markings or photo captures along trails or transect lines, but the assumption of equal detection probabilities is rarely validated. This study analyzes detection probabilities of a range of Neotropical mammals on trails in dense secondary forests, using camera-trap and track data. Photo captures of the two large cats, jaguars (Panthera onca) and pumas (Puma concolor), were correlated solely with trail variables, while photo captures of their potential prey species had no correlation or negative correlation with trail variables. The Neotropical mammals varied greatly in their tendency to follow or cross trails based on footprints surveys. This indicates that camera locations on trails will have varying detection probability for these Neotropical mammals. Even the two similar-sized jaguars and pumas, occupying relatively similar niches, differed subtly in their use of trails. Pumas followed trails more completely while jaguars were more likely to deviate from trails. The ecological significance of these findings is that jaguars seem to be more willing to use the forest matrix away from trails than do pumas. We conclude that trail-based indices, such as photographic captures or tracks along trails, are not appropriate for comparison between Neotropical species, and not even between relatively similar species like jaguars and pumas.
Journal Article
Ticks and rickettsiae from wildlife in Belize, Central America
2016
Background
The agents of spotted fevers in Latin America are
Rickettsia rickettsii
,
R. parkeri
,
Rickettsia
sp. strain Atlantic rainforest, and
R. massiliae
. In Continental Central America,
R. rickettsii
remains the only known pathogenic tick-borne rickettsia. In the present study, ticks were collected from wild mammals in natural areas of Belize. Besides providing new data of ticks from Belize, we investigated rickettsial infection in some of these ticks. Our results provide ticks harboring rickettsial agents for the first time in Central America.
Methods
Between 2010 and 2015, wild mammals were lived-trapped in the tropical broadleaf moist forests of central and southern Belize. Ticks were collected from the animals and identified to species by morphological and molecular analysis (DNA sequence of the tick mitochondrial 16S RNA gene). Some of the ticks were tested for rickettsial infection by molecular methods (DNA sequences of the rickettsial
gltA
and
ompA
genes).
Results
A total of 84 ticks were collected from 8 individual hosts, as follows:
Amblyomma pacae
from 3
Cuniculus paca
;
Amblyomma ovale
and
Amblyomma coelebs
from a
Nasua narica
;
A. ovale
from an
Eira Barbara
;
A. ovale
,
Amblyomma
cf.
oblongoguttatum
, and
Ixodes affinis
from a
Puma concolor
; and
A. ovale
,
A. coelebs, A
. cf.
oblongoguttatum
, and
I. affinis
from two
Panthera onca
. Three rickettsial agents were detected:
Rickettsia amblyommii
in
A. pacae, Rickettsia
sp. strain Atlantic rainforest in
A. ovale,
and
Rickettsia
sp. endosymbiont in
Ixodes affinis
.
Conclusions
The present study provides unprecedented records of ticks harboring rickettsial agents in the New World. An emerging rickettsial pathogen of South America,
Rickettsia
sp. strain Atlantic rainforest, is reported for the first time in Central America. Besides expanding the distribution of 3 rickettsial agents in Central America, our results highlight the possible occurrence of
Rickettsia
sp. strain Atlantic rainforest-caused spotted fever human cases in Belize, since its possible vector,
A. ovale
, is recognized as one of the most important human-biting ticks in the Neotropical region.
Journal Article
Using Continuous‐Time Spatial Capture–Recapture models to make inference about animal activity patterns
by
Foster, Rebecca J.
,
Distiller, Greg B.
,
Harmsen, Bart J.
in
Activity patterns
,
Animal behavior
,
Animals
2020
Quantifying the distribution of daily activity is an important component of behavioral ecology. Historically, it has been difficult to obtain data on activity patterns, especially for elusive species. However, the development of affordable camera traps and their widespread usage has led to an explosion of available data from which activity patterns can be estimated. Continuous‐time spatial capture–recapture (CT SCR) models drop the occasion structure seen in traditional spatial and nonspatial capture–recapture (CR) models and use the actual times of capture. In addition to estimating density, CT SCR models estimate expected encounters through time. Cyclic splines can be used to allow flexible shapes for modeling cyclic activity patterns, and the fact that SCR models also incorporate distance means that space–time interactions can be explored. This method is applied to a jaguar dataset. Jaguars in Belize are most active and range furthest in the evening and early morning and when they are located closer to the network of trails. There is some evidence that females have a less variable pattern than males. The comparison between sexes demonstrates how CT SCR can be used to explore hypotheses about animal behavior within a formal modeling framework. SCR models were developed primarily to estimate and model density, but the models can be used to explore processes that interact across space and time, especially when using the CT SCR framework that models the temporal dimension at a finer resolution. Quantifying the distribution of daily activity is an important component of behavioral ecology, but historically it has been difficult to obtain data on activity patterns. The emergence of camera traps as a mainstream tool in ecological monitoring has led to an explosion of available data from which activity patterns can be estimated. Continuous‐time spatial capture–recapture (CT SCR) models model the encounter process at an arbitrarily fine temporal resolution and so allow users to investigate how activity patterns and space use change continuously over time.
Journal Article
Spatial and Temporal Interactions of Sympatric Jaguars (Panthera onca) and Pumas (Puma concolor) in a Neotropical Forest
by
Foster, Rebecca J.
,
Doncaster, C. Patrick
,
Silver, Scott C.
in
Animal behavior
,
Animal ethology
,
avoidance
2009
We used extensive camera-trap surveys to study interindividual interactions among individually recognizable jaguars (Panthera onca) and plain-colored pumas (Puma concolor). Timed location data from a network of 119 trap stations in the Cockscomb Basin of Belize provide the 1st evidence of interspecific avoidance calibrated against intraspecific interactions among jaguars. Camera trapping has advantages over radiotelemetry in its potential to provide data on the complete array of individuals within the study area. The 23 individually identified male jaguars showed high levels of overlap in ranges, with up to 5 different males captured at the same location in the same month. Low levels of avoidance between individuals and a high flux of individuals contributed to low consistency in home-range ownership over the long term (3 months to 2 years). Jaguars and pumas had similar nocturnal activity schedules. Both species used similar habitats within the Cockscomb Basin, indicated by a high correlation in capture rates per location between species. Apart from their overall spatial similarities, jaguars and pumas avoided using the same location at the same time. This interspecific segregation was detectable over and above the spatial and temporal segregation of individual jaguars.
Journal Article
Sex‐specific population dynamics of ocelots in Belize using open population spatial capture–recapture
by
Foster, Rebecca J.
,
Augustine, Ben C.
,
Harmsen, Bart J.
in
Belize
,
Coniferous forests
,
data collection
2019
We used open population, spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models to estimate sex‐specific density, survival, per capita recruitment, and population growth rate of ocelots (Leopardus pardalis) at five sites in Belize with up to 12 yr of data per site. Open population SCR models enabled us to separate survival and recruitment from migration using an ecologically realistic, spatially explicit movement model. Yearly survival probability across 4 broadleaf forest sites was estimated at 0.73–0.84 for males and 0.81–0.87 for females, with no clear indication of sex differences. Yearly per capita recruitment was estimated across four broadleaf forest sites at 0.06–0.08 recruits/N for males and 0.09–0.12 recruits/N for females, again with no clear indication of sex differences. At a pine forest site with a population comprised largely of males, survival and recruitment estimates were similar to the broadleaf sites. Population densities in the broadleaf forest sites ranged from 6.5 to 14.7 ocelots/100 km2, and 0.9–2.5 ocelots/100 km2 in the pine forest site, with strong evidence of a female‐biased sex ratio in the broadleaf sites and a male‐biased sex ratio in the pine forest site. We also found strong evidence that female within‐year space use at the broadleaf sites was smaller than that of males, and that within‐year space use at the pine forest site was larger than that at broadleaf sites. Between‐year home‐range relocation at broadleaf sites was of a similar spatial scale as within‐year space use, consistent with philopatry. We found evidence of a small population decline (posterior probability > 0.9) at two of four broadleaf sites; however, given the level of uncertainty about decline magnitudes, we suggest continued monitoring of these sites to increase site‐years and gain further precision on population growth rate estimates. Estimating demographic parameters at large spatial and temporal scales is important for establishing reliable baseline estimates for future comparison and for understanding changes in population dynamics. Long‐term data sets like those we collected are of particular importance for long‐lived species living at low densities and large spatial scales, where not many individuals are exposed to capture in any one year.
Journal Article